Theoretical vs Empirical

Probability
Topic Index | Algebra Index | Regents Exam Prep Center

Probability
describes the chance that an
uncertain event will occur.
Empirical Probability of an event is an "estimate" that the event will happen based on
how often the event occurs after collecting data or running an experiment (in a large number of
trials).  It is based specifically on direct observations or experiences.
 

Example:   A survey was conducted to

Empirical Probability Formula determine students' favorite breeds of dogs.  Each
student chose only one breed. 
Do Colli Spanie La Boxe PitBul Othe
g e l b r l r
# 10 15 35 8 5 12
P(E) = probability that an event, E, will occur. What is the probability that a student's favorite
top = number of ways the specific event occurs. dog breed is Lab?
bottom =  number of ways the experiment could Answer:  35 out of the 85 students chose Lab. 
occur. 
  The probability is .

Theoretical Probability of an event is the number of ways that the event can occur,
divided by the total number of outcomes.  It is finding the probability of events that come from a
sample space of known equally likely outcomes.

Example 1:   Find the probability of rolling a

Theoretical Probability Formula six on a fair die.

Answer:  The sample space for rolling is die is 6

equally likely results: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
 P(E) = probability that an event, E, will occur.
n(E) = number of equally likely outcomes of E. The probability of rolling a 6 is one out of 6 or .
n(S) = number of equally likely outcomes of sample
space S. 

Example 2:   Find the probability of tossing a fair die and getting an odd number.
Answer:
event E :  tossing an odd number
outcomes in E:  {1, 3, 5}
sample space S:   {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
  

Comparing Empirical and Theoretical Probabilities:

Sum of the rolls of two dice

Karen and Jason roll two dice 50 times and record their
results in the accompanying chart. 3, 5, 5, 4, 6, 7, 7, 5, 9, 10,
1.)  What is their empirical probability of rolling a 7? 12, 9, 6, 5, 7, 8,  7, 4, 11, 6,
2.)  What is the theoretical probability of rolling a 7? 8, 8, 10, 6, 7, 4, 4, 5, 7, 9,
9, 7, 8, 11, 6, 5, 4, 7, 7, 4,
3.)  How do the empirical and theoretical probabilities
3, 6, 7, 7, 7, 8, 6, 7, 8, 9
compare?  

Solution:  
1.)  Empirical probability (experimental probability or observed
probability) is 13/50 = 26%.
2.)  Theoretical probability (based upon what is possible when
working with two dice) = 6/36 = 1/6 = 16.7%  (check out the table
at the right of possible sums when rolling two dice).
3.)  Karen and Jason rolled more 7's than would be expected
theoretically.
 

Vocabulary to keep in mind:

Biased:  one result has a better chance of happening than another result.

Unbiased (fair) :  each result has an equal chance of happening. 

 
 Topic Index | Algebra Index | Regents Exam Prep Center
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Oswego City School District Regents Exam Prep Center  

alright sir,
im the guy from perfection yesterday that want to help u about the dice thing..so
here goes..

part 4 (a)
(x) (f)
21
33
40
57
6 12
76
87
93
10 3
11 5
12 3

thats the data for 50 times tossing the dice..

and for

(a 1) i got 7.28 for the mean

(a 2) i got 6.2016 for variance
(a 3) i got 2,49 for S.D

4(B)
my prediction was double the (A 1 )
mean..

now for (4 c) toss the dice 100 times =.=

(x) (F)
25
35
4 15
55
6 10
7 13
8 15
9 11
10 8
11 7
12 6

okay (4 c)
(1) i got 7.09 for the mean
(2) i got 7.6219 for the variance
(3) i got 2.761 for the S.D

and my prediction was way off haha..

so just leave it there..

And thats for part 4..and uhh part 5 i leave it to you sir,

any mistake according to my answer,please correct it,thank you