Professional GDP Growth Prediction

Ching-Chuan Wang
Academia Sinica

Professional GDP Growth Prediction

Figure: GDP Growth Prediction (Current Year)

Professional GDP Growth Prediction

Figure: GDP Growth Prediction (Next Year)

Professional GDP Growth Prediction

Figure: GDP Growth Prediction in each quarter (Current Year)

Professional GDP Growth Prediction

Figure: GDP Growth Prediction in each quarter (Next Year)

Professional GDP Growth Prediction

Figure: Difference (%) between actual and forecast GDP Growth

(Current Year)

Professional GDP Growth Prediction

Figure: Difference (%) between actual and forecast GDP Growth (Next
Year)

Professional GDP Growth Prediction

Figure: Difference (%) between the median of actual and forecast GDP
Growth (Current Year)

Professional GDP Growth Prediction

Figure: Difference (%) between the median of actual and forecast GDP
Growth (Next Year)

Professional GDP Growth Prediction

Figure: Comparison between actual and forecast GDP Growth (Current

Year)

Professional GDP Growth Prediction

Figure: Comparison between actual and forecast GDP Growth (Next

Year)

Professional GDP Growth Prediction

Figure: Comparison between median of actual and forecast GDP Growth

(Current Year)

Professional GDP Growth Prediction

Figure: Comparison between median of actual and forecast GDP Growth

(Next Year)

Professional GDP Growth Prediction

Table: Predict Current GDP Growth (mean)

Dependent variable:
Growth cur
Forecast cur
Constant
Observations
R2
F Statistic
Note:

0.984
(0.059)
0.054
(0.168)
101
0.735
274.729 (df = 1; 99)
p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

Professional GDP Growth Prediction

Table: Predict Next GDP Growth (mean)

Dependent variable:
Growth next
Forecast next
Constant
Observations
R2
F Statistic
Note:

0.781
(0.232)
0.359
(0.641)
101
0.102
11.303 (df = 1; 99)
p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

Professional GDP Growth Prediction

Table: Predict Current GDP Growth (median)

Dependent variable:
Growth cur
Forecast cur
Constant
Observations
R2
F Statistic
Note:

0.977
(0.059)
0.076
(0.167)
101
0.735
275.069 (df = 1; 99)
p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

Professional GDP Growth Prediction

Table: Predict Next GDP Growth (median)

Dependent variable:
Growth next
Forecast next
Constant
Observations
R2
F Statistic
Note:

0.739
(0.233)
0.468
(0.645)
101
0.092
10.023 (df = 1; 99)
p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

Professional GDP Growth Prediction

Figure: Forecast GDP Growth

Professional GDP Growth Prediction

Figure: Forecast GDP Growth