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    The document analyzes data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) regarding forecasts of real GDP growth in the United States from 1968 to 2016. It finds that the percentage difference between initial real-time GDP estimates and individual forecasts averages around 0%. Regression lines for forecasts made 1 to 4 quarters in advance have slopes very close to 1, indicating forecasts generally match actual GDP levels reported after revisions.

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    Survey of Professional forecasters

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    The document analyzes data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) regarding forecasts of real GDP growth in the United States from 1968 to 2016. It finds that the percentage difference between initial real-time GDP estimates and individual forecasts averages around 0%. Regression lines for forecasts made 1 to 4 quarters in advance have slopes very close to 1, indicating forecasts generally match actual GDP levels reported after revisions.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as pdf or txt
    12 views13 pages

    SPF Data Forecast

    Uploaded by

    ccwang
    The document analyzes data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) regarding forecasts of real GDP growth in the United States from 1968 to 2016. It finds that the percentage difference between initial real-time GDP estimates and individual forecasts averages around 0%. Regression lines for forecasts made 1 to 4 quarters in advance have slopes very close to 1, indicating forecasts generally match actual GDP levels reported after revisions.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
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    of 13

    Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF)

    Ching-Chuan Wang
    Academia Sinica

    SPF

    Figure: The percentage difference between the first-release real-time


    GDP and individual professional forecaster GDP. The time period covers
    from 1968 Q4 to 2016 Q2.

    SPF

    We add the trend line and discover the line is around 0%.

    SPF

    SPF

    RGDP2: the quarterly forecasts for the level of real GDP in


    the current quarter.
    GDP: First-release real-time GDP.
    Black line is 45 degree line. Blue line is the regression line
    with slope equals 1.002.

    SPF

    RGDP3: the quarterly forecasts for the level of real GDP in


    the next quarter.
    GDP: First-release real-time GDP.
    Black line is 45 degree line. Blue line is the regression line
    with slope equals 1.003.

    SPF

    RGDP4: the quarterly forecasts for the level of real GDP in


    the next two quarters.
    GDP: First-release real-time GDP.
    Black line is 45 degree line. Blue line is the regression line
    with slope equals 1.003.

    SPF

    RGDP5: the quarterly forecasts for the level of real GDP in


    the next three quarters.
    GDP: First-release real-time GDP.
    Black line is 45 degree line. Blue line is the regression line
    with slope equals 1.005.

    SPF

    RGDP6: the quarterly forecasts for the level of real GDP in


    the next four quarters.
    GDP: First-release real-time GDP.
    Black line is 45 degree line. Blue line is the regression line
    with slope equals 1.005.

    SPF

    SPF

    SPF Data Revision

    SPF Data Revision

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