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International Journal of Infectious Diseases: Sciencedirect
International Journal of Infectious Diseases: Sciencedirect
A R T I C L E I N F O
Article history:
Received 24 June 2016
Received in revised form 16 August 2016
Accepted 27 August 2016
Corresponding Editor: Eskild Petersen,
Aarhus, Denmark
Keywords:
Zika
Sexual transmission
Dengue
Age-adjusted incidence
S U M M A R Y
Objectives: The recent emergence of Zika in Brazil and its association with an increased rate of congenital
malformations has raised concerns over its impact on the birth rate in the country. Using data on the
incidence of Zika in 20152016 and dengue in 2013 and 20152016 for the city of Rio de Janeiro
(population 6.4 million), a massive increase of Zika in women compared to men was documented.
Methods: The age-adjusted incidence was compared between men and women. A negative binomial
Poisson generalized linear model was tted to the Zika incidence data to determine the signicance of
sexual transmission statistically.
Results: Even after correcting for the bias due to the systematic testing of pregnant women for Zika, there
were found to be 90% more registered cases per 100 000 women than men in the sexually active age
group (1565 years); this was not the case for age groups <15 years and >65 years. Assuming that
infected men transmit the disease to women in their semen, but that the converse is not true, some extra
incidence in women is to be expected. An alternate hypothesis would be that women visit doctors more
often than men. To test this, the incidence of dengue fever was compared in men and women in 2015 and
in 2013 (before Zika reached Rio de Janeiro): in both years, women were 30% more likely to be reported
with dengue.
Conclusion: Women in the sexually active age group are far more likely to get Zika than men (+90%
increase); sexual transmission is the most probable cause. Women in the 1565 years age group are also
30% more likely to be reported with dengue than men, which is probably due to women being more
careful with their health.
2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/bync-nd/4.0/).
1. Introduction
Viral diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, such as
dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya, and Zika, have traditionally
been restricted to the tropical regions of the world, given the
intolerance of the vectors to colder climates.1 In these regions
* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: fccoelho@fgv.br (F.C. Coelho).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2016.08.023
1201-9712/ 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND
license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
2. Methods
The data used in this analysis were obtained from the Rio de
Janeiro health secretariat, and consist of every notied case of Zika
and dengue for the years 2013 (dengue only), 2015 (Zika and
dengue), and 2016 (Zika and dengue, up to April). Each record
includes the date of notication, International Classication of
Diseases tenth revision (ICD-10) code, age in years, sex, and
gestational status.
The ofcially estimated population of Rio de Janeiro for 2015,
based on the 2010 census, was also used (6.4 million people:
3 million men, 3.4 million women; Figure 1). All age-adjusted
incidences used in this study were calculated using this population
as standard.
The cases were aggregated to the same age classes, as shown in
the citys age pyramid (Figure 1). The classes are 5 years wide and
incidence values are presented as the number of cases per
100 000 inhabitants.
129
(1)
b4 Sexi Activei
The Active dummy variable takes the value 1 for age classes
above 15 years and less than 65 years of age, and 0 otherwise.
3. Results
During the recent Zika epidemic in Rio de Janeiro, which started
in late 2015, a total of 29 301 cases, 20 315 women and 8986 men,
were notied as suspected Zika cases based on clinical assessment.
During the same period, 102 754 total cases of dengue were
notied, with 46 305 being men and 56 449 being women. The
incidence by age group for Zika in the period January 2015 to April
2016 is shown in Figure 2. After removing the pregnant women
from the dataset, the incidences shown in Figure 3 were obtained.
The age distribution of pregnant women removed from the sample
is shown in the Supplementary Material (Figure S1).
For comparison, Figure 4 shows the age distributed incidence of
dengue in the 20152016 period. Note that the extra incidence in
women is far less pronounced. The dengue incidence in 2013 was
Figure 1. Age pyramid for the city of Rio de Janeiro. These numbers are ofcial projections based on the census of 2010. The male population is represented in blue, and the
female population in red.
130
Figure 2. Incidence of Zika in men and women by age group. The incidence is in units of cases per hundred thousand.
also investigated (Figure 5), to make sure that the pattern was not
specic to the 2015 dengue epidemic.
The combined incidence in the sexually active age group, from
15 years to 65 years of age, is shown in Table 1, along with the ratio
of the incidence in women to the incidence in men in the same age
group.
The regression results indicated a signicantly higher Zika
incidence for sexually active women (1.7767, 95% condence
interval (CI) 0.500 to 3.053, p = 0.006). Sex alone was not a
signicant predictor of Zika incidence (0.2120, 95% CI 1.207 to
0.783, p = 0.676). For dengue, being in the sexually active age group
and being a woman was not a signicant risk factor (0.7196, 95% CI
0.321 to 1.761, p = 0.138). Again, sex alone did not prove to be a
signicant risk factor for dengue.
4. Discussion
If Zika virus is being transmitted both through vectors and
sexually in Brazil and other American countries in this recent
epidemic, it is important to estimate the relative importance of
each route. According to the available evidence, the principal way
to transmit Zika virus sexually is through exposure to infected
seminal uid. Female to male sexual transmission of Zika virus has
been reported,10 but no information is available about how likely
such a transmission is. Assuming heterosexual intercourse to be far
more prevalent than homosexual sex between men, a surplus of
Zika cases in women due to sexual transmission can be expected.
Moreover active viruses have been isolated from semen more than
3 weeks after the onset of symptoms,9 which greatly increases the
Figure 3. Incidence of Zika in men and women by age group, excluding pregnant women. Pregnant women are excluded because extra efforts were made by the health
services to identify all possible Zika cases in this group due to their babies being at high risk of developing neurological complications.
131
Figure 4. Age-adjusted incidence of dengue in men and women for the 20152016 period.
Figure 5. Age-adjusted incidence of dengue in men and women for the year 2013. Notice the pattern is similar to that observed in 20152016.
132
Table 1
Aggregated incidence in men and women in the sexually active age group of 1565
years. The last column shows the ratio of the incidence in women to the incidence in
men.
Disease
Incidence in
women
Incidence in
men
Ratio,
women/men
Zika
Dengue 201516
Dengue 2013
5382.58
16 628.04
32 201.37
2854.85
13 941.05
25 410.52
1.88
1.19
1.27