SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.949199
R Square
0.900979
Adjusted R Square
0.870842
Standard Error
1.508761
Observations
31
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable
X Variable
X Variable
X Variable
X Variable
X Variable
X Variable

1
2
3
4
5
6
7

SS
MS
F
Significance F
7 476.3825 68.05464 29.89625 4.26E-010
23 52.3563 2.276361
30 528.7388

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
1.229221 6.307664 0.194877
0.008133 0.007656 1.062301
0.038921 0.069817 0.557466
0.030968 0.013967 2.217207
0.371175 0.307245 1.208076
-0.000394 0.000409 -0.964672
-0.000439 0.000469 -0.936511
0.001066 0.000399 2.671317

PROBABILITY OUTPUT
Percentile
1.6129032258
4.8387096774
8.064516129
11.2903225806
14.5161290323
17.7419354839
20.9677419355
24.1935483871
27.4193548387
30.6451612903
33.8709677419
37.0967741935
40.3225806452
43.5483870968
46.7741935484

Y
16.68
16.77
16.81
17.01
17.04
17.23
17.86
18.19
19.24
20.56
20.8
20.89
20.97
21.09
21.18

P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%

0.8472 -11.81918 14.27762
0.299126 -0.007705 0.023971
0.582594 -0.105508 0.183349
0.03677 0.002075 0.059861
0.239294 -0.264409 1.006759
0.344743 -0.001239 0.000451
0.35874 -0.00141 0.000531
0.013637 0.00024 0.001891

50
53.2258064516
56.4516129032
59.6774193548
62.9032258065
66.1290322581
69.3548387097
72.5806451613
75.8064516129
79.0322580645
82.2580645161
85.4838709677
88.7096774194
91.935483871
95.1612903226
98.3870967742

21.23
21.41
21.53
22.29
22.39
22.48
22.9
23.55
23.64
24.35
24.73
26.9
27.91
29.39
31.47
32.18

Normal Probab
40
Y

20
0
0

20

40

60

Sample Per

Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
-11.81918 14.27762
-0.007705 0.023971
-0.105508 0.183349
0.002075 0.059861
-0.264409 1.006759
-0.001239 0.000451
-0.00141 0.000531
0.00024 0.001891

Normal Probability Plot

20

40

60

80

Sample Percentile

100

120

Year

Stock PriceX1 annual CPI

X2 annual PPI
X3 annual HPI X4 Annual IR
1980
17.01
103.9000015259 89.8000030518 102.699996948 11.430000305
1981
16.81
107.5999984741
98 107.830001831 13.920000076
1982
16.77
109.5999984741
100 111.430000305 13.010000229
1983
16.68
113.5999984741 101.3000030518 115.739997864 11.100000381
1984
17.04
118.3000030518 103.6999969482
120.75 12.460000038
1985
17.23
12.3999996185 103.1999969482 126.919998169 10.619999886
1986
17.86
130.6999969482 100.1999969482 135.529998779 7.6700000763
1987
18.19
136.1999969482 102.8000030518
144.25 8.3900003433
1988
19.24
140.3000030518 106.9000015259 159.970001221 8.8500003815
1989
20.89
144.5 112.1999969482 164.940002441 8.4899997711
1990
21.53
148.1999969482 116.3000030518 168.089996338 8.5500001907
1991
21.09
152.3999938965
116.5 172.770004272 7.8600001335
1992
20.8
156.8999938965 117.1999969482 176.789993286 7.0100002289
1993
20.56
160.5 118.9000015259 181.309997559 5.8699998856
1994
20.97
163
120.5 186.850006104 7.0900001526
1995
21.41
166.6000061035 124.8000030518 193.330001831 6.5700001717
1996
22.39
172.1999969482 124.4000015259 199.86000061 6.7699999809
1997
22.9
177.1000061035
125.5 210.100006104 6.3499999046
1998
23.55
179.8999938965 132.6999969482 220.449996948 5.2600002289
1999
23.64
184 134.1999969482 234.559997559 5.6500000954
2000
22.29
188.8999938965 131.1000061035 252.089996338 6.0300002098
2001
21.23
195.3000030518 138.1000061035 268.049987793 5.0199999809
2002
21.18
201.6000061035 146.6999969482 284.730010986 4.6100001335
2003
22.48
207.3000030518 157.3999938965 311.320007324 4.0100002289
2004
24.35
21.3029994965 164.8000030518 346.570007324 4.2699999809
2005
26.9
214.5370025635 172.6999969482 371.429992676 4.2899999619
2006
29.39
218.0559997559 189.6000061035 375.649993896 4.8000001907
2007
31.47
224.9389953613 184.3000030518 356.910003662 4.6300001144
2008
32.18
229.5939941406
185.5 337.220001221 3.6600000858
2009
24.73
232.9570007324 186.1000061035 232.539993286 3.2599999905
2010
27.91
236.7359924316 184.8999938965 310.980010986 3.2200000286

X5 GDP of US X6 GDP ofSpain X7 GDP Germany

12569.950195
6977.921875 10205.299804688
13960.19043 7572.622070313 11200.639648438
14404.530273 8099.104980469 11861.110351563
15525.519531 8527.69921875 12557.469726563
17093.039063 8951.228515625 13417.48046875
18224.839844 9417.4140625 14201.639648438
19071.369141 9889.834960938 14815.330078125
20055 10678.45019531 15400.830078125
21433.960938 11589.83007813 16446.91015625
22869.810547 12597.24023438 17625.349609375
23901.050781 13536.58007813 19071.240234375
24352.320313 14317.90039063 20552.16015625
25452.470703 14745.87011719
21262.4609375
26427.939453 14908.38964844
21405.0390625
27741.949219 15560.61035156 22330.369140625
28748.710938 16299.59960938 23125.619140625
30032.560547 17037.2109375 23685.16015625
31537.869141 17968.01953125
24197.2890625
32913.398438 19152.99023438 24889.150390625
34585.230469 20093.08007813 25802.44921875
36419.449219 21718.3203125 26645.23046875
37240.160156 23207.58984375
27721.75
38122.320313 24663.91015625 28438.130859375
39606.46875 25329.48046875 29364.58984375
41856.519531 26483.640625
30708.8203125
44236.609375 27862.93945313 32186.16015625
46368.988281
30905.5 34716.30078125
47987.5
32800.03125 36783.01953125
48330.058594 33708.16015625 38434.12109375
46929.890625 32803.890625
37137.140625
48302.078125 32360.50976563
39621.7890625

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.937034
R Square
0.878032
Adjusted R Square 0.840911
Standard Error
197.464
Observations
31
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable
X Variable
X Variable
X Variable
X Variable
X Variable
X Variable

1
2
3
4
5
6
7

SS
MS
F
Significance F
7 6456068 922295.4 23.65343 4.42E-009
23 896816.7 38992.03
30 7352885

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
-248.6924 490.5963 -0.506919
0.032886 1.056562 0.031126
-3.075442 1.741499 -1.765974
-28.13929 31.44555 -0.894858
60.8279 38.90409 1.563535
0.168506 0.043584 3.866215
-0.152389 0.045638 -3.339043
-0.0075 0.011904 -0.630081

PROBABILITY OUTPUT
Percentile
1.6129032258
4.8387096774
8.064516129
11.2903225806
14.5161290323
17.7419354839
20.9677419355
24.1935483871
27.4193548387
30.6451612903
33.8709677419
37.0967741935
40.3225806452
43.5483870968
46.7741935484

Y
110.9
114.3
117.3
133
166.4
171.6
208.2
250.5
264.5
285.4
325.49
339.97
416.08
435.23
465.25

P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%

0.617038 -1263.568 766.1834
0.975438 -2.152779 2.218552
0.090673 -6.678008 0.527123
0.380133 -93.18936 36.91077
0.131583 -19.65134 141.3071
0.000784 0.078345 0.258667
0.002849 -0.246799 -0.057978
0.534852 -0.032125 0.017124

50
53.2258064516
56.4516129032
59.6774193548
62.9032258065
66.1290322581
69.3548387097
72.5806451613
75.8064516129
79.0322580645
82.2580645161
85.4838709677
88.7096774194
91.935483871
95.1612903226
98.3870967742

472.99
614.42
865.58
865.84
1123.58
1132.52
1140.21
1181.41
1248.77
1278.73
1282.62
1300.58
1335.63
1378.76
1424.16
1425.59

Normal Probability Plot

2000
Y

1000
0
0

20

40

60

Sample Percentile

Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
-1263.568 766.1834
-2.152779 2.218552
-6.678008 0.527123
-93.18936 36.91077
-19.65134 141.3071
0.078345 0.258667
-0.246799 -0.057978
-0.032125 0.017124

80

100

120

ot

100

120

Year

Stock Price, Y
X1 annual CPI X3 annual HPI
X4 Annual IR
1980 110.9000015259 103.900001526 102.699996948 11.430000305
1981
133 107.599998474 107.830001831 13.920000076
1982 117.3000030518 109.599998474 111.430000305 13.010000229
1983 114.3000030518 113.599998474 115.739997864 11.100000381
1984 166.3999938965 118.300003052
120.75 12.460000038
1985 171.6000061035 12.3999996185 126.919998169 10.619999886
1986 208.1999969482 130.699996948 135.529998779 7.6700000763
1987
264.5 136.199996948
144.25 8.3900003433
1988
250.5 140.300003052 159.970001221 8.8500003815
1989 285.3999938965
144.5 164.940002441 8.4899997711
1990 339.9700012207 148.199996948 168.089996338 8.5500001907
1991 325.4899902344 152.399993896 172.770004272 7.8600001335
1992 416.0799865723 156.899993896 176.789993286 7.0100002289
1993 435.2300109863
160.5 181.309997559 5.8699998856
1994 472.9899902344
163 186.850006104 7.0900001526
1995
465.25 166.600006104 193.330001831 6.5700001717
1996 614.4199829102 172.199996948 199.86000061 6.7699999809
1997 1248.770019531 177.100006104 210.100006104 6.3499999046
1998 1425.58996582 179.899993896 220.449996948 5.2600002289
1999 1335.630004883
184 234.559997559 5.6500000954
2000 1140.209960938 188.899993896 252.089996338 6.0300002098
2001 865.8400268555 195.300003052 268.049987793 5.0199999809
2002 1132.520019531 201.600006104 284.730010986 4.6100001335
2003 1181.41003418 207.300003052 311.320007324 4.0100002289
2004 1278.729980469 21.3029994965 346.570007324 4.2699999809
2005 1424.16003418 214.537002563 371.429992676 4.2899999619
2006 1378.760009766 218.055999756 375.649993896 4.8000001907
2007 865.5800170898 224.938995361 356.910003662 4.6300001144
2008 1123.579956055 229.593994141 337.220001221 3.6600000858
2009 1282.619995117 232.957000732 232.539993286 3.2599999905
2010 1300.579956055 236.735992432 310.980010986 3.2200000286

Unemployment raX5 GDP of US X7 GDP Germany X7 GDP China

6.1999998093 12569.9502 10205.299804688 2438.590087891
6.5999999046 13960.19043 11200.639648438 2794.563964844
6.3000001907 14404.53027 11861.110351563 3173.709960938
5.4000000954 15525.51953 12557.469726563 3680.022949219
6.0999999046 17093.03906 13417.48046875 4155.519042969
4.1999998093 18224.83984 14201.639648438 13797.74023438
5.3000001907 19071.36914 14815.330078125 14961.6796875
4.9000000954
20055 15400.830078125 296.7308044434
6.8000001907 21433.96094 16446.91015625 336.641998291
5.3000001907 22869.81055 17625.349609375 383.9248962402
5.9000000954 23901.05078 19071.240234375 436.8703918457
3.5 24352.32031 20552.16015625 514.3045043945
4.1999998093 25452.4707
21262.4609375 593.9796142578
5.5999999046 26427.93945
21405.0390625 649.2991943359
4.5999999046 27741.94922 22330.369140625 730.6348266602
3.7000000477 28748.71094 23125.619140625 828.6801147461
4.5999999046 30032.56055 23685.16015625 882.7250976563
5.1999998093 31537.86914
24197.2890625 999.4202880859
6 32913.39844 24889.150390625 1058.511962891
4.5 34585.23047 25802.44921875 1168.427978516
5.0999999046 36419.44922 26645.23046875 1351.066040039
4.6999998093 37240.16016
27721.75 1555.020019531
5.0999999046 38122.32031 28438.130859375 1776.270996094
4 39606.46875 29364.58984375 1985.526977539
6.3000001907 41856.51953
30708.8203125 2199.392089844
5.5999999046 44236.60938 32186.16015625 2407.840087891
4.0999999046 46368.98828 34716.30078125 2612.074951172
2.7999999523
47987.5 36783.01953125 2853.277099609
6.8000001907 48330.05859 38434.12109375 3139.011962891
3.5999999046 46929.89063
37137.140625 3454.358886719
5.1999998093 48302.07813
39621.7890625 3853.405029297