Exam P For The Win

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When your answer is not among the choices, slow down when checking your

solutions. Mistakes are less likely to be found when the troubleshooting


process is being rushed.
In the complicated general probability questions, try making a Venn diagram
for the probabilities. Venn diagrams are useful not only for count data but
also for probabilities.

Dont forget the combination function when allocating (e.g., SOA #32).
Read everything, or at least never skip a whole sentence.
Especially in some conditional probabilities (e.g.

P ( X >16 )
P ( X > 8)

) where the

integration formula is the same in the numerator and denominator, avoid


repeating the integration. Just solve for the CDF then plug in.
Dont confuse probability formulas with expectation formulas when dealing
with deductibles. Also, in solving probabilities, dont just disregard values of x
that are below the deductible. Values of x below the deductible are
disregarded only when solving for expectation. (See SOA #40)
Watch out for accumulated daily payments (e.g. SOA #44).
When dealing with exponential distributions, always try to take advantage of
the CDF before attempting to integrate.
When putting a square root in both sides of the equation, never forget the
negative counterpart even if you are usually left with the positive square root
(e.g. SOA #40).
All the given values in SOA questions are usually used; so check if you used
them all (e.g. SOA #52).
There are cases where it is quicker not to split polynomials when integrating
(e.g. SOA #54)
Check what youre typing in the calculator. Press harder when typing, so as to
ensure that the number is entered. When your answer is not among the
choices, check first if you entered the formula in the calculator correctly
before checking your solutions.

Be careful in differentiating and integrating when the exponent is negative.


Slow down a little, because you might subtract exponents when you are
actually trying to add, and vice-versa. SOA sets traps for that.
When a CDF is given, check first if it is a mixed distribution or not. Also, the
individual components of the mixed distribution do not necessarily have to be
valid CDFs.
Double check limits of the integration when dealing with deductibles and
benefit limits. In plain deductibles, upper limits of the integral are not to be
altered. In plain benefit limits, lower limits of the integral are not to be
altered. Unless a deductible and benefit limit is combined; one limit of the
integral should be maintained.
The questions can be really tricky (e.g. SOA #67).
When not in set theory, try to use complements of unions instead of solving
through inclusion-exclusion principle. This usually simplifies the solution (e.g.
SOA #77).
Sometimes its more efficient to just draw the regions and think instead of
doing all the integration (e.g. SOA #79)
Find a valid reason to choose one root over another after using the quadratic
formula or after putting a square root on both sides of the equation.
Var(X+Y)=Var(X)+Var(Y)

2 Cov(X,Y). NOT MINUS. Dont confuse with the

sign pattern of inclusion-exclusion formula.


When computing for bivariate probability (e.g., P(X>Y)), try graphing first
before resorting to transformations. It is usually advisable to graph in
bivariate probability, especially when dealing with the bivariate uniform
distribution.
It might be safer not to use survival function method when computing for
expected values of mixed distributions (discrete + continuous).
If the joint pdf can be split into a product of a function of x and a function of
y, then X and Y are independent random variables.

P (Y < X|X =c ) P ( Y <c )

As much as possible, substitute letters with numbers once the value is found.
It usually makes things less complicated.

( X|Y =c )

Even in the discrete case,

E ( X|Y =c )= x P (X=x Y =c )
x

E (X)
P ( Y =c )

. The correct equation is

When the mode is being asked for in the exam, just do trial and error to see
which value among the choices produces the largest PMF or PDF.
Let x be a nonnegative integer and
number of trials. Then

X Geometric ( p)

where

is the

P ( X > x )=( 1 p ) x+1

Dont stop at the limit benefit when integrating (e.g. SOA #161).
Sometimes, fractions in the choices are not rounded off (e.g. SOA #162). So
dont panic when your fraction is not in the choices. Just enter the choices
into your calculator one by one and see which is equivalent to your fraction.
Be careful and dont make stupid mistakes when converting at least and at
most into

or

If normal distribution is explicitly assumed, just accept it even if it makes no


sense (e.g. distribution seems discrete).
If what percentile is being asked and it is known that the distribution is
continuous, dont strictly round down your answer. Just round off. (e.g. SOA
#189)
For Bivariate Normal distribution,

( Y |X =x ) Normal ( =E [ Y | X=x ] , 2=Var [ Y | X=x ] ) , where


E [ Y | X=x ] =Y + Y

x X
x

Var ( Y | X=x )= 2Y (12 )


Refer to SOA #200 for without-replacement counterpart of negative binomial.
Shifted exponential distribution:

1 (
f X (x )= e

xa

I (a , ) (x )

E ( X )=a+
Var ( X )=2
xa

( )) I
F ( x )=( 1e

( a , )

( x)

Know when to take advantage of trial and error.


In problems involving joint distributions, never disregard the relation of X to Y
(e.g.

x y ).

In joint distributions, especially in conditional distributions, write the indicator


functions so as not to fall into traps and confusions. Its worth the time.

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