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Fermi Questions
Fermi Questions
Fermi Questions
Example: Estimate the order of magnitude of the number of breaths of a human in a lifetime.
(10/min) * (60 min) * (24 hrs) * (365 days) * (75 yrs)
>1+2+1+2+2=8
i.e. 1108 = 100,000,000
Example: Estimate U.S. annual consumption of gasoline in gallons
1. (200,000,000 cars) * (15 gallons / week) * (52 weeks)
> 8 + 1 + 2 = 11
i.e. 11011 = 100,000,000,000
2. (400,000,000 cars) * (40 gallons / week) * (52 weeks)
> 8 + 1 + 2 = 11
i.e. 11011
The skill of estimating scale and order of magnitude is necessary for quality problem solving. It is
one basis of the reality check.
My answer to the total length of string in the worlds largest ball of string is an excellent example
of this process. While my guesstimate was less than the width of the known universe, it was of
such absurdity as to provide enough material to oh, I dont know knit a cozy little pouch to
tuck the sun into to stem global warming.
I discerned my answer was complete nonsense by comparing it to the magnitude of the earths
diameter. While I may have gotten the wrong answer, I knew and understood it was the wrong
answer.
Update 2010/10/17
I saw somewhere where the rounding was done NOT as normal by rounding up if the last digit is
5 or more and rounding down if the last digit is 4 or below, the point where an order of
magnitude changed was centered around the log of the quantity in base ten.
magnitude of 3 not 2 because log10 400 (the logarithm of 400 in base 10) is 2.6, which means it
has a magnitude of 2.6, and when 2.6 is rounded it is rounded up, which results in a magnitude
estimate of, drum roll, 3. Emphasis mine. It makes enough sense to me.