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The
Options
Binomial
on
Futures
Pricing
of
Contracts
Fall 2008
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fromtheirunderlying
securities.This,in turn,makesit easierfor
exchangesdifferent
futures
and hedgingstrategies
thanspotoptions
optionstradersto implementarbitrage
traders.
SINGLE-PERIOD BINOMIAL OPTION PRICING MODEL FOR FUTURES OPTIONS
In thebinomialoptionpricingmodel(BOPM), theequilibriumpriceofan optionis
basedon thelaw ofone price.Thispriceis foundbyequatingthepriceoftheoptionto
thevalueofa replicating
thatis,a portfolio
constructed
so thatitspossiblecash
portfolio;
flowsare equal to theoption'spossiblepayouts.To construct
a replicating
for
portfolio
futures
assume
that
in
the
futures
one
and
at
the
options,
initially
optionexpires
period,
end of the period,thereare only two possiblestates.In this one-period,two-state
economy,assume thatat the end of the period,the price on the futurescontracts
u timesits
asset,thespotprice(S0),willeitherincreaseto equal a proportion
underlying
initialpriceoritwilldecreaseto equal a proportion
d timesitsinitialvalue. Forfinancial
therelationship
betweenthefuturesprice(f) and spotprice,as definedbythe
futures,
is:1
model,
carrying-cost
io = V
where:
(1)
contract
nf= numberofperiodsto expirationon thefutures
r = 1 + periodicrisk-free
rate
Dt = value ofbenefits(e.g.,dividendsor interest)on theunderlying
assetto be realizedat expiration
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Cu = Maxfo-XO]
Pu = Max[X-fu ,0]
^
c0
P
'
Cd = Maxfo-X,0]
Pd = MaxfX-fj ,0]
's
RPC=H,(fd-f0)-rB0
I
RP c - HqVq
B0 = Hq(0)
B0
=
RPp HqVQ 10 HQ(0) + 10
1 /
/
I
v
IX
RPp =Hj(fu
RPC
Hq (fu
-f0) + rl0
f0)
1
1
rB0
Forthefutures
call,theequilibrium
priceis obtainedbysolvingfirstfortheH0 and
that
make
the
two
B0
possiblereplicatingportfoliovalues at expirationequal to the
possiblecall values and then settingthe price of*the call equal to the value of the
p
definedin termsofH0 and B0 . Thatis:
portfolio
replicating
Hi(f-fo)-B0r
= Cu
Fall2008
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H;(f<,-f0)-B0r
(2)
C<1
Cd
f. _
~ Cu
0
f _f
ru
d
Cu (fd
B =
Hq V
f0 )
Cd (fu
f0 )
(4)
=
C
HS"(0)-B
*
*
C0
_B0
(5)
+ Cd(fu-f0)
R _-Cu(fu-f0)
D0
r '
(C
r(fu -fd)
r-_ ^0
f>
theH0 and I0 thatmaketwo possiblereplicating
valuesat expiration
portfolio
equal to
to
the
value
of
theirtwo possibleputvaluesand thensettingtheprice
of
the
putequal
p
in
thereplicating
defined
terms
of
and
:
portfolio
H0
I0
H;(fu-f0)+I0r=Pu
H;(fd-f0)+I0r
<6)
Pd
P - P
Ho =tzr
K
64
(7)
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.
L =
[Pu(fd-fo)-Pd(f-fo)]
r(fu-fd)
p;
p;
p
=
=
=
Hq v0f + 1;
H0r(o)+i;
i;
pu(fd-f0)-pd(fu-f0)]
(C
c '
r(fu"fd)
n._T._
~
~
0
0
-[pcn
+ (i-p)cd]
,r
P
where:
(10)
-[pPu+(l-p)PJ
r
p = [r-d]/[u-d]
Cu = Max[fu-X,0]
Cd= Max[fd-X,0]
Pu= Max[X-fu,0]
Pd= Max[X-fd,0]
Fall 2008
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rF^
rF[u-d]
2. Mostderivativetextsdefinethecarrying
costmodelforindexand currencyfutures,
as well as theequationforp, forthecase ofa continuousdividend(or asset)yield.3The
assumptionof a continuousassetyieldis moreapplicableforpricingspotand futures
indicesand is easilyappliedto thepricingofcurrencyderivatives.
In thecaseofan index
or currencyoption in which the stock index or currencyis adjustedto reflecta
continuousdividendyieldora continuouscompoundedforeign
risk-free
rate,thefutures
is:
price
(RA-yOnfAt
f _C
~~
ro
oe
where:
rate
'>= annualdividendyieldor foreignrisk-free
RA= annualizedrisk-free
rate(U.S. rateforcurrencyoption)
At= lengthofbinomialstepsas a proportion
ofa year
=
nf numberofperiodsto expiration
In thiscase,the equationforp includesthe annualdividendor foreignrisk-free
yield.
Definedin termsofannualizedparameters,
p is:
P~
e(RA-^)At_d
u-d
3. In theBOPM forspotoptions,theformulas
forestimating
u andd arefoundbysolving
forthe u and d valuesthatmake the expectedvalue and the varianceofthe binomial
distribution
ofthelogarithmic
returnoftheunderlying
security'spricesequal to their
estimated
and
under
the assumptionof an equal
values,
a,
respective
parameter
(a
of
the
in
one
thatthedistribution
probability
security
period(orequivalently
increasing
of the logarithmic
returnis normal). The formulavalues foru and d thatsatisfythis
conditionare:
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u
J
_
_
e^V
t+^At
Vt+/^At
~as
where:
A
annualizedstandarddeviationofthespotprice'slogarithmic
return
"s = estimated
A
return
JU = estimatedannualizedmeanofthespotprice'slogarithmic
At = thelengthofthebinomialperiod= t/n,where:t = timeto expirationas a
ofa yearand n = numberofperiodsto theoption'sexpiration
proportion
4. The binomialmodelforoptionson financialfutures
is definedin Equations(5) and (9)
in
terms
of
the
and
down
fortheunderlying
(orEquation(10))
up
parameters
spotprices.
It is commonto also definetheup and down parameters
in termsofthefuturesprices,
f
u andd . Specifically,
ifthecarrying-cost
modelholds,thentheformulas
forestimating
theup and downparameters
and risk-neutral
probability,
pf,as definedin termsofthe
futures
priceare:
uf
_
e<TfAVt+//fAAteCTsAVt+/^-(RA-iiOAt
(11)
_
Vt+//A-(RA-^)At
g-crA Vt+/if^At g-crA
(12)
l-df
<13)
where:
<7^ and
The relationships
betweenthe volatilityand mean on the futuresprice'slogarithmic
returnand thespot'svolatilityand mean,in turn,are:
^_A -_
Fall 2008
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~ (RA v)
t = s
A moredetailedexplanationoftherelationship
betweenthefutures
andspotupwardand
downwardparameter,includingthe algebraicderivationof Equations(11) - (15), is
presentedin AppendixB.
f
f
5. Note thatsinceu and d (Equations(11) and (12)) includethe risk-free
rateand the
theequationsforu
thesquarerootterms.As a result,fora largenumberofsubperiods,
and d simplify
to:
uf = e^Avs
= u
df = e-<rsAV5T = d
f f
f
and thereforeall threeterms- p , u and d - are absentof the risk-free
rateand
dividendyield.Thus,forthecase oflargen,theonlyinputthatneedsto be estimatedto
contractis theunderlying
futures'
determine
thepriceofan optionon a financialfutures
spotvariability
as.
In summary,
forfinancialfutures
thesingle-period
binomialequationsdefining
the
in
for
call
and
on
a
futures
contract
are
similar
form
to
the
equilibriumprices
putoptions
BOPM forthespotsecuritiesexceptforCu and Cd and Pu and Pd,whichare definedin
termsof the contractpriceson the futuresinsteadof the spot prices. If the futures
contractand thefuturesoptionexpireat thesametime,thenthepossiblepriceson the
futures
willbe equal to thepossiblespotprices(fu= Suand fd= Sd);
contractat expiration
in thiscase,Cuand Cdand Puand Pdwill be thesameforthespotoptionand thefutures
option.Thus, if the futurescontractand the option have the same expiration,the
model holds,and the futuresand spotoptionsare both European,then
carrying-cost
futuresand spotoptionswill be equivalent.
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BOPM Examples
Single-Period
PricingA Call And Put On A StockIndexFutures
As an example,considera 1250 Europeancall and put optionson a stockindex
futures
contract.Assumethefuturesoptionsexpireat theend ofone period,while the
indexfuturescontractexpiresat the end of two periods(nf= 2). Also assumethe spot
ofu = 1.1 and d = .95, the
indexis currently
at 1250 and has up and down parameters
rateis 5%, dividendspaidon thestockscomprising
theindexareworth
periodicrisk-free
and
the
futures
is
determined
12.50at thefutures
price
expiration,
bythecarrying-cost
model.
the currentfuturespriceon the indexfuturescontract
Giventheseassumptions,
we willassumeno multiplier)
and as shownin Exhibit
wouldbe 1365.625(forsimplicity
1 thepossiblepriceson thecontractnextperiodwouldbe fu= 1431.25and fd= 1234.375,
andthepossiblevaluesofthefutures
call optionexpiringat theend oftheperiodwould
be 181.25or zero (see Exhibit1(a)) and the possiblevalues of the futuresput option
expiringat theend oftheperiodwould be zero or 15.625(see Exhibit1(b)). Usingthe
BOPM, theequilibriumpriceofthe 1250call optionon theindexfutures
single-period
contractis 115.08and theequilibriumputpriceis 4.96 (see Exhibit1).
Ifthemarketpriceon the futurescall or putoptiondoes notequal itsequilibrium
will existbytakinga positionin theoptionand an
value,thenan arbitrage
opportunity
oppositepositionin the replicatingportfolio.For example,in the above case, if the
marketpriceofthe 1250indexfuturescall is C0m=120 insteadofC0*= 115.08,thenas
showninTable 1,a risklessreturnof5.17 couldbe earnedatexpiration
bysellingthecall
=
=
for120,takinga longpositionin Hf0' [Cu-Cd]/[fu-fd]
[181.25-0]/[1431.25-1234.375]
= .920635indexfutures
contractsat f0= 1365.625,and investingamountsofB 0 =115.08
andC0m- C0 = 120-115.08= 4.92 in a risk-free
ofC0m= 120).
security(a totalinvestment
On the otherhand, if the marketprice of the futurescall is below 115.08,then an
is employedin whichC0m
dollarsareborrowedat
underpricedBOPM arbitrage
strategy
therisk-free
rateand used to financethepurchaseofthecall and thena shortposition
in Hf0*
futurescontractsis takenat f0.
In the case of the put, if the marketprice of the 1250 index futuresput were
overpricedat P0m= 10 insteadofP0*= 4.96,thenan arbitragecashflowof5.29 couldbe
earnedby sellingtheputfor10,takinga shortpositionin .079365indexfuturesat f0=
= -0.079365),and
= [0 - 15.625]/[1431.25-1234.375]
1365.625 (Hf0*= [Pu-Pd]/[fu-fd]
=
=
=
in
1
5.04
a
risk-free
amounts
of
4.96
and
10-4.96
investing
security(see
0
P0m P0
Table 2). On theotherhand,ifthemarketpriceofthefutures
putis below4.96,thenan
BOPM arbitrage
is employedin whichP0mdollarsareborrowedat
underpriced
strategy
therisk-free
ratewiththeproceedsused to financethepurchaseoftheputand thena
longpositionin H 0 futurescontractsis takenat f0.
Note,sincethe futuresand the futuresoptiondo not expireat the same time,the
priceof thefuturesoptiondiffersfromthepriceon an optionon thespotindex. For
Fall 2008
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f^t-6667Max[1375_
=
C'0 79.36
The 1250futures
call optionalso wouldbe equal to 79.36 ifthefuturescontractexpired
at theend ofthefirstperiodinsteadofthe second (thiswould makeCu on the futures
option125 and therefore
C0 = 79.36).
PricingA Call On A StockIndexFuturesGivenA ContinuousDividendYield
In pricingthe futurescall on the S&P 500 futures,supposethe dividendson the
a continuouspayment.In thiscase,we can pricethe
spotindexapproximate
underlying
callandputoptionsand futures
usinga continuousdividend-adjusted
spotindex.To see
this,assumethefollowing:
The S&P 500 futures
optionexpiresin 90 days
The S&P 500 futures
contract
expiresat theendof 180 days
The current
=
index
is
spot
S0 1250
The estimated
annualizedvolatility
andmeanofthespotindex'slogarithmic
return
=
=
are asA .3 and |isA 0
The annualriskfreerateis Rf= .06
The futures
model
priceis determined
bythecarrying-cost
= continuousannualdividend
=
4%
yield
i|>
Ifwe pricethe futurescall optionusinga singleperiodmodel,thenthe lengthof the
binomialperiodin yearsis At= 90/365and 'i = 1.160637,d = .861596,rf= e<^907365^anc
p = .479358:
U=
= e'3V90/365
= 1.160637
d = l/u =.861596
(,06-.040)(90/365)
r _J
-*- == =
=.479358
p
u-d
1.160637-.861596
Fall 2008
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Table 1. Single-PeriodArbitrageStrategy
foran OverpricedIndex FuturesCall Option
f0= 1365.625,% = 2
C0m=120,C0*=115.08
u = 1.1,d = .95,r = 1.05
Strategy:
SeHCall atl20
at 1365.625
Longin Hf0= .920635FuturesContracts
InvestB 0= 115.08in Risk-free
Security.
= 120-115.08= 4.92 in Risk-free
InvestExcessofC0m-C0<
Security.
CashFlowat Expiration
ClosingPosition
Call Purchase:-Q
1365.625)
ClosingFutures:.920635(fTInvestment:
B> = 115.08(1.05)
Investment:
(C^-Qr = 4.92(1.05)
= 1431.25,Cu= 181.25
-181.25
60.42
120.83
5JL7
5A7
fd= 1234.375,Cd= 0
0
- 120.83
120.83
5A7
5A7
in 180
costmodel,thecurrentfutures
priceon theindexexpiring
Usingthecarrying
=
are
1457.97
and
the
next
the
on
contract
is
period
fd=
days 1262.39, possibleprices
fu
at
the
end
of
the
futures
call
1082.32,and thepossiblevaluesof
period
optionexpiring
1 are 207.97 and zero.
rA )(nf-1)(At)=
1457.97
(1.60637)(1250)=
uS0e(
=
1250.0) = 207.97
X,0) = Max(1457.97
Cu
Max(fu
f0
=
dS0e(RA_,/)(nf"1)(At) (.861596)(1250)e(06"04X90/365)
=
1250.0) = 0
X,0) = Max( 1082.32
Cd
Max(fd
fd
72
= 1082.32
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Table 2. Single-PeriodArbitrageStrategy
foran OverpricedIndex FuturePut Option
f0= 1365.625,% = 2
= 10,P0*= 4.96
P0m
u = 1.1,d = .95,r = 1.05
Strategy:
SeHCall at 10
Shortin Hf0= .079365FuturesContracts
at 1365.625
InvestI o= 4.96in Risk-free
Security.
= 10-4.96= 5.04 in Risk-free
InvestExcessofP0m-P0
Security.
CashFlowat Expiration
ClosingPosition
PutPurchase:-PT
ClosingFutures:.079365(1365.625-fT)
B 0r= 4.96(1.05)
investment:
= 5.04(1.05)
investment:
(C0m-C'0)r
-15.625
10.416656
5.208
5.292
5.292
5.292
5292
mLW
+ (1-p)cd]
[(-479358X209.97) + (,520642)(0)] = 98.23
Fall 2008
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"T
rf [j=0vn
X,)]
JJ-J*
P^
(-"jij.P'0
P)'n"[Maxi;X-
(M'"1'
f,0)]
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= 0.082192,withthe
Thelengthofthebinomialperiodin yearsis At= t/n= (90/365)/3
= (3)(0.082192)= .246575years,and thefutures
in (n0ption)At
call and putoptionexpiring
=
=
in
At
.328767
on the
(4) (0.082192)
years.Usingtheup anddownparameters
expiring ^
=
is pf .488064:
futures
therisk-neutral
contract,
probability
uf _ e<xsVt+^-(RA-^)At
.3V.082192
+(0-(.06-.04)(.082192)
uf _ e
=1088024
jf _ g-cr^Vt+^-(RA-^)At
082192)_ 915Q8
_ e-.3V.082192+(0-(.06-.04X
,=
-d=
u -d
1-91608
1.088024-.91608
= 4g80<4
Exhibit3 showstheresulting
binomialtreefortheunderlying
S&P 500spotindex,S&P
500indexfutures,
and
American
futures
call
and
European
options, EuropeanandAmerican
futuresput options.For this three-period
optioncase, the binomialmodel pricesthe
Europeancall at 83.73and theAmericancall at 84.01and theEuropeanputat 75.61and
Americanputat 78.85.Thereis an earlyexerciseadvantagefortheAmericancall at the
uppernodeinperiod2,andan earlyexerciseadvantagefortheAmericanfutures
putatthe
lowernode in period2. As a result,boththeAmericanfutures
putand call optionsare
Forn = 30 subperiods,theprices
pricedslightly
higherthantheirEuropeancounterparts.
oftheEuropeanandAmericanS&P 500 futures
callsare77.04and 77.30,respectively;
for
and
69.11
table
at
the
the Europeanand Americanfutures
the
are
68.91
(see
put,
prices
4
bottomofExhibit3).
Exhibit4 showsthebinomialtreeforan S&P 500 indexfutures
atthesametimeas thefutures
options(90 days),alongwiththepriceson European
expiring
andAmericanfutures
callandputoptionsand EuropeanandAmericanspotindexcalland
put options.The spotS&P 500 indexoptionshave the same exercisepriceof 1250 and
of90 daysas do thefutures
options.The tableat thebottomofExhibit4 shows
expiration
inthecase
Asexpected,
thebinomialpricesofthespotandfutures
optionsfor30 subperiods.
ofEuropeanoptions,thefutures
andspotoptionpricesareidentical.
This,inturn,confirms
an earlierpointthatifthefutures
thespotoptioncontract,
andthefutures
contract,
option
andspot
contract
all expireatthesametimeandtheoptionsareEuropean,thenthefutures
As such,thepriceon thefutures
optionsareidentical.
optionisequaltothepriceonthespot
and
Price
differences
can
be
betweenthe Americanfutures
observed,
however,
option.
Americanspot options. In the three-period
case of the call options,the priceof the
Americanfutures
callis 89.89, whilethepriceoftheAmericanspotcallis 82.62,thesame
canbe explainedbythefactthatthe
as theEuropeanspotoptionprice.Thepricedifference
futurespricesare
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BinomialPricing
Exhibit3. Multiple-Period
and
Put Options
ofIndexFuturesCall
= 120 Days
= 90 Days,FuturesExpiration
X = 1250,OptionExpiration
77
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Exhibit4. Multiple-Period
BinomialPricingofIndex
Futuresand SpotCall and PutOptionswithFuturesand
at theSameTime
OptionsExpiring
= 90 Days,FuturesExpiration
= 90 Days
X = 1250,OptionExpiration
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Exhibit5. Multiple-Period
BinomialPricingof
IndexFuturesand SpotOptionsforan InvertedFuturesMarket
= 90 Days,FuturesExpiration
= 90 Days
X = 1250,OptionExpiration
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rate
futures
thebinomialderivation
also highlights
how therisk-free
options.In addition,
for
out
of
the
futures
but
not
the
how
the
exercise
futures
drops
options
spot,
early
advantage
is normalorinverted,
andhowtheupward
market
optionsdependson whetherthefutures
in termsofthemeanandvariability
can be estimated
ofeither
anddownwardparameters
spotorfutures
prices.5
ENDNOTES
1
In commodity
betweenthefutures
therelationship
futures,
price(f)andspotprice,as
definedbythecarrying-cost
model,is:
f0
DT
S0rnf + Knf + TRC
where:K = storagecostsperperiodforholdingtheunderlying
asset;TRC = transportation
assetfromthestoragefacility
tothedestination
costoftransporting
theunderlying
pointon
futures
contract
orviceversaat expiration
In thecaseofcommodity
futures
options,theequilibrium
optionpriceEquation(10)
includesa storagecost-adjustment
factor:
[C"-C,'1KandtP"-P?]K
S0r
S0r
a storagecost);forputs,
Forcalloptions,theadjustment
is positivegivenCu> Cd(implying
a negativestoragecostora shortposition
theadjustment
is negativegivenPu< Pd(implying
in the commodity).
In cases in which shortingthe commodityis not applicable,the
is
not
definable.
factor
adjustment
2
assetyields,seeHull(2006):112Fora discussion
ofadjusting
equationp forcontinuous
113and256.
The Blackfutures
model(1976)is
C;=[foN(d,)-XN(d2)]e-E'T
P[X(1J
N(d2 ))
f0(l
N(d,))]e~RfT
- o a/
d2 = d
f
2
2
return
of futures
where:af2 = varianceof thelogarithmic
prices= V(ln(/f0);
of = as
T = timetoexpiration
as a proportion
ofspotpriceslogarithmic
return);
expressed
(volatility
81
Fall 2008
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82
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+(l-
p)P]
Given:
fu-fd = (uS0rnf~'-Dt)
(dS0rnf-'-DT)
f Dt)
fu f0 = (uS0r
(S0r
f fd f0 = (dS0r
Dt)
(S0r
ff-
= S0rnf
Lr
f
DT) = S0r
f
DT) = S0r
Lr
1
J
Lr
1
J
rJ
Cu(fd-f0)-Cd(fu-f0)
nX
r (fu ~fd)
0~
P)
_
0 ~~
Lr
rJ
CuS0rnf|~1-- + CdS0rnfI"- l
r
|_r
J ~_
L
J
~_
+ cj--l]
S0rnf[cjl--
|_r J
L rj
rSornf[-u_dl
Lr rJ
S0rnf[u-d]
+
cil--]
cd[--ll
L rJ
Lr J
i^]
c; = - t
+ Cdr--ii
MI
[.ii
^
^ - J = cu
r-L cd^u-d
u-d
u-d
r- ,il
Lu-dJ
c; = -[pcu+(i-p)cd]
r
where:
p=
r-d
,
and
u-d
, - = u-d
1 p
u-d
r-d
u-r
=
u-d
u-d
Forfuturesputoption: Pj = -|ppu+(i-p)pd]
r
83
Fall 2008
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where:
annualizedstandarddeviationofthespotprices logarithmic
return
as = estimated
=
estimated
annualized
mean
of
the
return
spotprice'slogarithmic
'i$A
At= thelengthofthebinomialperiod= t/n,where:t = timeto expiration
as a
ofa yearand n = numberofperiodsto theoption'sexpiration
proportion
(B
2)
The formulas
forestimating
theup anddownparameters
as definedin termsofthefutures
and
are:
(uf
d*)
price
^
yf _ gaf
df _ e-o*
+'JfAt
_
VB +M.^At
-K(l^-(RA-l|)At
(B _ 3)
+(tiA-(RA-v)At
_ 4)
where:
A
A
deviationand meanon thefutures
prices
CTfand if = annualizedstandard
return
logarithmic
84
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The relationships
betweenthevolatility
and meanon thefutures
price'slogarithmic
returnand thespot'svolatility
and mean,in turn,are:
(B-5)
(B - 6)
f=asA
= nsA- (Ra -v)
The algebraicderivation
in theTable B.l.
ofEquations(B-5) and (B-6) is presented
and
into
the
for
we
(B-2)
Equations(B-l)
equation p, obtainthe equations
Substituting
forthefutures
callandputoptionsdefinedintermsofthefutures
up anddownparameters:
c(RA-,jtt_d
u-d
P
f
P ~
and
e(RA-V)Ai_ dfe(RA-V)At
ufe(R~v)Ai-dfe(RA_)At
1- df
uf - df
C = - At[pfcu+(l-pf)Cd]
e-R
po = ^-[pfPu+a-pf)Pd]
gR At
Thepftermis therisk-neutral
definedin termsoftheup anddownparameters
probability
forthefutures
priceinsteadofthespotprice.
f
f
f
As noted,since u and d includethe risk-free
rate and the dividendyield,p is
determined
atleastfordiscrete
casesinwhichtherearea smallnumber
bybothparameters,
In a multiple-period
ofperiodsto expiration.
increases
model,as thenumberofsubperiods
orequivalently
as thelengthofthebinomialperiodAt(= t/n)becomessmaller,
thesecond
termintheexponent
ofEquations(B-3)and(B-4)- a termthatincludesnotonlythemean,
butalso therisk-free
rateand dividendyield- goes to zero fasterthanthe squareroot
terms.As a result,
fora largenumberofsubperiods,
theequationsforufand dfsimplify
to:
u
f =
e ^
df = e^
= u
=d
f f
f
andtherefore
all threeterms- p,u and d -are absentoftherisk-free
rateanddividend
for
the
case
of
the
that
needs
to
be
estimated
todetermine
the
Thus,
n,
yield.
large
onlyinput
of
an
on
a
futures
is
the
futures'
financial
contract
price
option
spotvariability
underlying
"asFall 2008
85
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e(RA-<|>)At
+^
e^
+
cj^Vt u^At
e(RA-^)At
4.^5
'
Vee(RA-|>)At
/
(1)
df =-
e(RA-*)At
e^t+^At
eWt+HfAAt
e(^)At
-a^/t
a
f~
H^At
c^Vt
Ve
J^At
-o-Jt
H^At
+ (RA -i>)At+
j^At
~
V5
(2)
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86
(3)
(4)
(5)
crsA
forcnAin Equation(4) and solvingin termsof |JfA
:
Substituting
fiAAt= -a^Vt
rf=-[-(RA-<i>m
Given:
u = ufe(RA-^At and d = dfe(RA-^At
into equationforp:
Substituting
P~
e(RA->)At_dfe(RA-4>)At
uf
~ j_df ~ _f
P
- df e(RA-^)At uf -df
Fall 2008
87
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