GEOPOLITICS

Lectures 1&2: Panorama of current conflicts and

actors
***
politic=politic/al
different = different; difference = difference
between= between; with = with)
I-

Why geopolitics matters for business?

74% of CEOs concerned about geopolitical uncertainty

Highest geopolitic risks: Middle East and Central &
Eastern Europe in energy & hospitality sectors.
3 first key threats:
Over-regulation (79%)
Geopolitic uncertainty (74%)
Exchange rate volatility (73%)

Total corruption of officials in the UN oil-for-food

pgrm which eased sanctions on Iraq after Kuwaits
invasion by allowing Iraq to sell oil in exchange of
basic goods for humanitarian needs.
Total did extra payments, by passing the embargo.
Lafarge Syria. In 2014, had to put an end to their
activity because of ISIS.
Suspected of having paid taxes to ISIS to protect their
business.
How
can
business?

companies

Clients? Mostly companies ranked in Fortune Global

500
III-

Panorama of current conflicts

Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict

Research (HIIK): Conflict barometer

Cases

II-

worlds largest company specialized in medical &

security services.
24/7 assistance to businesses with employees
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They assess, advise and assist employees:
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secure

International SOS - Founded in 1985

their

Created in 1992
to provide data & analysis on conflicts,
Focus on politic conflicts
POLITIC conflicts: positional difference regarding
values relevant to a society between at least 2 actors
that threatens core state functions or international
order.
Core elements of political conflict:
Actors = individual, state, IO or non-state
Measures = violent actions or communicat carried
out in a context of politic conflict.
Conflict items
- Sytem/ideology (regime change)
- National power (power to govern)
- Autonomy
- Secession (separation of territory new state)
- Decolonization
- Resources

Territory (change of borders)

International power (aspire a
international or regional system)

change in

Conflict intensity:
None violent & low intensity
Lvl1 Dispute, Lvl2 Non violent crisis
vs M23
Violent conflicts & medium intensity
Lvl3 violent crisis
vs Crimea
Violent conflicts & high intensity
Lvl4- Limited war, Lvl 5- War
Iraq

ex:

ex: DRCongo

ex:

Ukraine

Syria,

Mali,

Nature of current conflict Intrastate or

Interstate
IV-

Need authorization from UN security council

9/15 without veto.
- Peace-building op: disarmament, demobilization,
landmine removal, electoral assistance, human
right protection
3 principles : Consent of parties
Impartiality
Non-use of force (except mandates
defence and
self-defence)
-

Main actors in conflict management

1. UN peacekeeping operations
2016: 16 current operations.
No military force depends on the members
contribution
100.019 uniformed personnel
16.471 civilian personnel
$1.332 = monthly salary reimbursed by UN for
countries sending volunteers.
123 countries contribute to UN op.
8.2 billion budget

2. North Atlantic Treaty Org (NATO)

1949 with signature of Washington treaty
28 members
18 000 military personnel
4 current operations:
- Kosovo,
- Afghanistan,
- Mediterranean sea (anti-terrorist mission)
- Horn of Africa (counter piracy mission)
3. EU missions
2009 Lisbon Treaty
No standing army
Goals of missions:
- joint disarmament op
- Humanitarian tasks
- Military advice & assistance
- Conflict prevention
- Crisis management & post-conflict stabilizat
Since 2003 30 civilian & military op (Bosnia,
Ukraine, Palestine, Congo)
Decisions taken by EU Council
4. African Union mission

2002 succeed OAU (Org of Africa Unity)

54 members (all Af states except Marrocco)
Since 2004: PSC (peace & Security council of 15
members) authorized + 64.000 missions in Af.
Can launch missions against wishes of the country in
conflict in case of genocide, war crimes and crimes
against humanity
Budget 2.3% comes from states, rest form donors
(UN, EU, US)
AU is the only org that recognizes the right to
intervene on the R2P basis (Responsibility to
Protect)
Lecture 3: Major current conflicts in SubSaharan Africa
I-

Main
geopolitic
and
challenges in Africa

geo-economic

Key challenge: limit conflicts and spread of

terrorist groups
Ethnic a religious wars in Central Afric Rep, South
Sudan and Lybia.
Terrorist groups: Boko Haram, Al-Shabab, AQMI,
IS
Sub-Saharan Africa = most aid-dependent region in
the world
51% living with less than $1.25/day
Geoeconomic features
1.2 billion (16% of world pop)
Poverty in Rising Africa report:
1- Pop in extreme poverty declined from 56%
(1990) to 43% (2012). Still many poor people.

2-

Health, Nutrition and educative improved

Low quality of schooling (2/5 adults illiterate)
Rising conflicts & violence
Big inequalities (rural vs urban areas)

3- Stable average GDP (4.5%/y)

4- Between65-70% pop lives in rural areas
5- Increase of Violence against civilians
6- Many refugees
7- Most African countries LDCs & fragile states
7 in top 10 most fragile states are in Af. in 2015
(FSI)
8- Inequality very high Southern Af. `
IINigeria: Africas most populous country
Pop: 182 million
Unemployment rate: -12%
President: Muhammadu Buhari (since 2015)
Religions: Islam, Christianity, indigenous beliefs
Largest oil producer in Af.
Largest natural gas reserves in Af. Is among
worlds top 5 exporters of Liquefied Natural Gas.
Member of OPEC
Sectarian conflict System/ideoly
Oil & gas reserves in southern Niger Delta area
source of conflict.
Oil & gas = 75% of Nigerias eco and 95% of
total export revenue.
a) Boko Haram in Nigeria

Created in 2002 by Mohammed Yusuf

Western education is sin
Since 2009: military operations and want to establish
Islamic state & sharia
2013 designated terrorist group
Actions: gunmen on motorbikes killing politicians and
police, bombs
Dev links with other terrorist groups (Al Qaeda and IS)
2013: controlled 3 states in NE Nigeria.
2015: pledged allegiance to IS.
Fatal attacks mostly in Abuja, Kano, Chibok and
Maiduguri
Increase of civilians death between 2010 and 2014.
2014: Kidnapped 276 girls, mostly Christians.
2015: Bring back our girls 1 million tweets.
Ultimatum: Free girls if govs free all BH imprisoned
militants
b) Nigerias refugee exodus
1.2 million internally displaced
+ than 42.000 people killed since 2011

III- Somalia: Key facts

Pop: 10.7 million
Major religion: Islam
1 of the poorest countries in the world
Most failed state in the Failed State Index (2003 to
2013)
2006: seizure of the capital Mogadishu by Al-Shabab
2012: UN back up gov
a) Al-Shaba the youth
2006: birth of this Clan-based insurgent terrorist
group
Was the radical military wing of the Union of Islamic
courts
Very homogeneous group: affiliated to Al Qaeda,
against the Federal gov of Somalia
7.000 to 9.000 figters
Chef: Ahmed Abdi Godan
2006: took control over a big part of Southern
Somalia
many attacks against AU and NGOs
2013: AU mission and Ethiopian forces decreased its
control

c) Nigeria: risky business

Kidnapping of workers for ransom
June 2016: 7 employees of engineering firm
Macmahon taken
2 major projects in Nigeria:
1- Joint venture with Lafarge, Holcim and Flour Mills
of Nigeria
2- Cement plant at Ewekoro 6.5y contract with
Lafarge

Actions: kidnaps young boys for fighting, imposes

strict interpretation of the sharia in controlled areas.
Funded by:
- state sponsors
- piracy
- kidnapping & racketeering.
- extortion of business
Nairobi Westgate Kenya Attack - September 2013

12 armed men of Al -Shabab attacked the Westgate

mall
Lasted 4 days
Opened fire and then took hostages.
72 deads & + than 200 wounded
Al-Shabab wanted Kenya to withdraw their troops in
southern Somalia.
Their targets:
- Somalia federal Gov.
- Neighboring countries fighting against them
- Christians

2013: Civil war broke out after the president Salva

Kiir sacked his govt and accused the Vice-psdt Riek
Machar of planning a coup dEtat.
2015: peace deal
2016: South Sudan
transitional govt

Charcoal business creates massive desertification

and deforestation, very prized in the Gulf.
IV-

Civil war in South Sudan

9 July 2011: Independence after 20y of guerilla

Very diverse country: + than 60 different ethnic
groups
1 of Africas LDCs worst food crisis affecting 1/3
of pop.
Highly oil-dependent economy & agriculture
central to eco
Conflict with Sudan oil rsources & border disputes

the

deadline

for

50.000 people killed and 1.6 million internally

displaced
V-

b) Business in Kismayo
rd
3 largest city in Somalia
Al-S took control and rose fees for importing &
exporting goods
1 of the largest ports
Export mostly primary goods charcoal (90% of
the
citys
eco,
represent
$15
to
$16
million/month)

missed

Destabilization of Mali

2011: Tuareg rebellion

2012: Tuareg & Al Qaeda join seized control of
N.
2012: Islamists groups took control of some cities
from Tuaregs and imposed sharia.
2013: France Intervention. UN secured the north
2014: French op in Sahel against jihadist groups
destabilization of Mali
Tensions in N persist
UN multidimensional Integrated stabilization
mission and military missions led by G5 Sahel
countries
Terrorist attack in Bamako
Nov 2015: Radisson Blue Hotel + than 170 hostages
and 20 people killed
Terrorist attack in Burkina Faso
AQMI: Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Magrheb
Created in 2007, acts in Sahel region
Goal = spread Islamic law and jihad across West
Africa

Very well armed thanks to Kidnapping, drug &

cigarettes traffic
Lecture 4: current conflicts in Asia and the
Pacific
I-

Taliban in Afghanistan

2016: Taliban controls + territory than in 2001. Seek

to create Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan
2015: seized Kunduz transport hub of opium &
heroin smuggling
Afghan National Security Forces responsible for
securing country + 40% casualties
Oct 2015: Obama withdraw US troops
a) Who are the Taliban?
Emerged in 1990s in northern Pakistan
1994-2001 in power in Afghanistan
2001 toppled by US-led intervention
Organization: Emir Mullah Akhta Mansour
b) Main reasons for the Taliban resurgence
1- 2014: End of US and NATO combat mission +
International community focus on Iraq, Syria
and Ukraine
2- Military op launched by Pakistan dislodged
thousands of Uzbek, Arab and Pakistani who
joined the Taliban
3- Afghan security forces lack capabilities
c) Main actors in the war

Afghan govt (led by Ashraf Ghani and

Abdullah Abdullah)
Taliban
US
Pakistan (suspected of sponsoring Taliban)

Annual cost of sustaining ANSF ($6b) > Afghanistan

internal revenue ($2.23b)
Afghanistans budget in 2014 mostly fund by donors
aid off-budget
d) Afghanistans eco
Mining revenue = key to end dependence on US
Countrys mineral wealth = $1 to $3 trillion
Taliban capture of mining wealth
e) Security companies
2007: US army awarded $150b LOGCAP1 IV contract
for food, housing etc. to US soldiers in Iraq,
Afghanistan and Kuwait.
3 companies in charge to support US military:
- Fluor Corp. (engineering & construction)
- Dyncorp (intelligence, logistics, security)
- KBR (technology, engineering, construction)
II-

North Korea crisis

Leader: Kim Jong-Un

Interstate conflict
Military policy - Most militarized nation in the world
(1.1m soldiers)
State control on media and peoples life
1 Logistics Civil Augmentation Program

NK nuclear program = source of concern for

international community
Since 2003: Six-Party Talks negotiating on nuclear
issue
2005 NK give up its nuclear program for economic
aid.
Estimated Nb of nuclear weapons: between10 and
16
Estimated Nb of missiles: 1.000
- Russia & Egypt main missile suppliers
NK effectuated many tests of missile since 2006
Jan 2016: underground test of hydrogen bomb
UN imposed 4 sets of sanctions:
- Asset freezes
- Travel bans
- Restrictions on luxury
Pyongyangs elites

goods

hitting

Not rigidly enforce because of China, NKs cloest ally

and biggest trading partner.
a) Doing business in NK
Worlds most repressed economy: controlled by
the communist party and Kim Jon-Un
- All import-export controlled
- Regimes songun (military first) policy
- Bribery and corruption wide spread
Sanctions = obstacle for business
2016 Index of economic freedom rank last
b) China-NK relations

Huge dependence on China. Supplies NK with food,

arms and energy
+ than 70% of total trade volume
New sea routes opened betweenChina and NK to boost
NKs coal exportations
70% of NK pop in food insecurity
III-

Territorial dispute in South China Sea

6 countries: Taiwan, Malaysia, Vietnam, Philippines,

Indonesia and Brunei with China.
Dispute concerns 2 island chains: Paracels and
Spratlys
a) Reasons of the territorial dispute
- Economic importance of East & South seas
- 2 islands uninhabited but :
Important maritime trade routes + rich fishing
areas
Rich in oil and natural resources
b) Who claims what?
1. China largest part of the territory because the
islands once belonged to her.
2. Vietnam ruled the islands since 17th c. whereas
china never claims it before 1940s.
3. Philippines Spratly because of proximity
4. Malaysia & Brunei islands under their exclusive
economic zones (EEZ)
IV-

Dispute in East China Sea

BetweenChina and Japan over Senkaky and Daioyu

islands (8 uninhabited islands controlled by Japan)
- Strategic importance

Rich fishing area

Potential oil & gas reserves (200m estimated
barrels of oil)

IMO said in dec 2015 that + than 1 million

migrants & refugees crossed into Europe. It covers
6 EU countries: Bulgaria, Cyprus, Greece, Malta, Italy
and Spain + Turkey

a) Who claims what?

Japan formally incorporated the islands in its
territory in 1895
China started its claims when hear about the rich
natural resources (1970s)
US islands fall into their security pact with Japan
Lecture 5: Current conflicts in Eurasia
Asylum
seeker:
a
person
fleeing
a
persecution/conflict
and
seeking
international
protection under 1951 Refugee convention on the
status of Refugees
Refugee: asylum seeker whose claim has been
approved
Economic migrant: person leaving his country for
economic gain
Explosion of refugees related to multiplication of
conflicts
Nb of refugees in the world in 2015: 52.9 millions
I-

Europes migrant crisis

Most important flow of migrants since WW2

+ than 580.000 migrants in 2015
Due to Arab Spring, esp. civil war in Syria

+ than 940 000 people asked for asylum in Europe

Germany= highest number of applications
Most of migrants come from Syria, Afghanistan and
Eritrea
2014: EU countries offered
refugees/570.000 applications.

asylum

to

184.665

a) Main entry places for migrants in Europe:

- Greece: islands of Kos, Chios, Lesbos and
Samos
- Itlay: from sub-saharan Africa & Lybia. Higly
dangerous route (+ 2000 dead in 2015)
- Balkans
b) Migrant deaths
Lybia Italy = longer and + hazardous travel
+ than 3695 migrants reported dead trying to make
the crossing (mostly from north Africa)
c) Impact on Syrian crisis
2015: surge in migrants from Syria toEurope
Most of Syrian migrants fled to Turkey, Lebanon and
Jordan
d) Dublin Regulation
Law ruling asylum seekers
- Entry-point states bear unilateral responsibility
for migrants

Must remain n the 1st European country they

enter
and that country is responsible for
examining the asylum applications.
Some members want a reform dor a common
European asylum policy:
- Current system is disproportionate as some
states are more touched because of their
borders
- Many countries have already stopped enforcing
Dublin and allow migrants to move north/west
-

II-

Situation of migrants

Italy: Bossi-Fini immigration low fines or

deportation if they dont have work contract before
entering the country
Hungary: emergency laws giving police + authority,
introducing prison terms in case of illegal border
crossing, arms troops deployed at borders.
Germany: preferred destination due to its liberal
asylum policies. Migrants are expected to boost
countrys eco.
2015: 800 000 asylum seekers
III- Schengen Area
1995
Abolish internal borders.
26 countries (22EU and 4 non-EU)
6 members outside the Schengen area: Bulgaria,
Romania, Croatia, UK and Ireland
2 points of view:
Schengen area = part of EU process & values.
Its a right of EU citizens.
open door for migrants and criminals

Europes migrant crisis put into question the Schengen

agreement.
IV-

Proposal to manage the crisis

EU ministers agreed to resettle 120 000 migrants from

Greece & Italy across 23 members states.
UK, Ireland and Denmark = exempt from EU asylum
policies
EU commissions proposal: mandatory quota system
for taking 40.000 Syrians over 2y.
EU high representative asked UN Security Council to
authorize use of military forces against human
smugglers Off the shores of Lybia
V-

Refugee status

Full protection, entitle migrant to stay and eventually

get a job and citizenship.
Some asylum seekers can get subsidiary protection
status (not classed as refugee under the refugee
convention)
Lecture 6: Current conflict in the MENA Region
I-

The civil war in Syria

2011: popular uprising against Bachar Al Assads

regime
1 of the gravest recent humanitarian crises:
- + than 250.000 people killed
- 4.2million Syrian refugees and migrants
- + than 7.6 million displaced
- + than 12 million need humanitarian aid

2 overlapping conflicts:
1. Civil war in Syria
2. War against IS
Paradox same actors could be adversaries in one
conflict and allies in the other (USA vs Russia)
Main actors:
Civil war
Syrian gov vs Rebel groups
Supporters of Assad: Russia, Iran, Hezbollah and
Irakian militia Shia forces
Opponents: US, Turkey, Arab nations (Qatar,
Saudi Arabia) + US support rebel groups with
money, arms and training
Assad fighting at the same time ISIS
War against IS:
ISIS & foreign fighters vs US, EU and Kurds
Supporters of US: Australia, Canada, France,
Jordan, Turkey, SA, Bahrain
ISIS want to topple Assad and create caliphate
over Syria, Iraq and other countries
Main fights betweenAssad and Rebels: Alep region,
Deraa and Damas and Lebanese border.
Eight Wars of Syria
1.
2.
3.
4.

Assads forces and rebels

Assads forces and ISIS
ISIS and rebels
ISIS and Kurds (northern and Turkish border)

5. ISIS and Al-Nusra: Syrian branch of Al-Qaida

(eastern Syria)
6. ISIS
and
Al-Nusra
against
Hezbollah
(Lebanese border)
7. ISIS and eastern tribes (who control oil
resources)
8. Al-Nusra and rebels (province of Idlib)
Main risks
Could lead to + complicated conflicts:
- US vs Russia
- Turkey vs Kurds
- Iran vs Saudi Arabia
Strategies to solve conflict
Old strategy let the war escalate hoping a
comprehensive politic transition like in Tunisia or Egypt
Inefficient due to powerful allies of Assad.
New strategy Negotiations with all parties
involved
2012:
Geneva
I
Conference
with
Geneva
communiqu with Action group for Syria
2014: Geneva II Conference with US, Russia and UN
reak down of negotiation
2015: negotations in Vienna with Iran and Saudi
Arabia

Vienna
statements:
preserving Syrias
unity/independence and integrity + constitution +
combat ISIS + cease fire
Who are Syrian opposition?
National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and
opposition Forces that replaced Syrian National
Council.

Sanctions against Syria: Imposed by

- Arab league
Suspended Syrias membership + imposed economic
sanctions on Damascus
Called for departure of Assad + supporting resolution
of UNSC vetoed by Russia & China
Qatar and Saudi Arabia stopped sending arms to
extremist Syrian groups.
- US
Called for Assads resignation + signed Executive
order 13582 froze Syrian govs assets
Prohibited to do business with regime
Banned petroleum pdcts from Syria
- EU
Asset freeze
Travel bans
Arms embargo
Restrictions on oil importation and oil-production
equipment exportation.
Syrian Economy
GDP fell between50 and 80% (2012)
Hyperinflation: Syrian pound dropped
Regime relies on Russia, Iran and China fro credit lines
II-

War against IS

IS has many name: IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh

ISIL: Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant official
name for US and UN
Daesh: group previous name: al-Dawla al-Islamiya fil
Iraq wa al-Sham

Origins: Tawhid wa al-Jihad (2002) by Abu

Musab al-Zarqawi

After US invasion in Iraq joined Bin Laden and

formed Al-Qaeda I niraq (2004)
Death of Zarqawi = AQI create umbrella org.
IS in Iraq (2006)
New leader of ISI: Baghdadi (2010)
2013: dozens of attacks + joined rebellion
against Assad + creation of ISIL
ISIS took control of cities in Iraq (Falluja, Mosul)
2014: Creation of a caliphate and changed its
name in IS.

3 main periods:
1- 2002-2006: Zarqawis reign
2- 2006-2011: Decline
3- 2012-Present: Expansion under Bagdhadi
Coalition against IS: US (air strikes) EU Saudi Arabia
Jordan Iran/Iraq/Syria UAE/Qatar Turkey Lebanon
IS territory & pop?
Control about 40.000km2 in Iraq and Syria
Key cities: Mosuln Tikrit, Tal Afar + Raqqa (Syria)
Controls oil fields, dams, main roads and borders
crossing
Pop: 8 million (2015)
IS Fighters
Between20.000 and 31.000 fighters in Syria 50.000
in Iraq
12.000 foreign nationals fighters (81 countries)
Fighters are military trained + well equipped
militarily

IS Funding
$2b in cash & assets worlds wealthiest military
group
Came from individuals in Arab Gulf states
Today IS is largely self-financed org. and earns
money from:
- Exploitation and control of oil and gas
fields
- Taxation, tolls, smuggling, extortion and
kidnapping
Jizya = tax for religious minorities.
IS pays $350 monthly their fighters
IS created a refugee wave:
+ than 3m people left Syria
2,75m Iraqis left their homes
III-

Sectarian conflict in Lebanon

Started with IS fights against Hezbollah + other Shia

groups
2015: double suicide bomb attack in Beirut
Since 1990s: 43 people and 200 injured
Influx of Syrian refugees
+ 1million
1/5 people in Lebanon is a refugee
It costs 7.5b to Lebanon
Economic effects + sectarian tensions (Shia politic
party + Hezbollah + Sunni groups)
IV-

Islamist militancy in Egypt

2011: Ousting of Psdt Moubarak = deterioration in

Sinai
2013: Overthrow of Psdt Morsi

New psdt: Abdel Fat al Sisi started fight against

Jihadists in Sinai
Emergence of A Wilayat Sinai, pledged allegiance to
IS
Oct. 2015: bombed a Russian airplane
V-

Kurdish conflict

1984: start of conflicts betweenKurdish workers party

and Turkish gov.
Type of conflict: system/ideology + autonomy +
territory
Kurds = 1/5th of the Turkish pop (14 milion)
Who are the Kurds?
Between25 and 35m Kurds in Iraq, Syria, Iran,
Turkey and Armenia
Predominantly Sunni Muslims
4th largest ethnic group in MENA region
Iraqi Kurds helped US coalition oust Hussein
Kurdish regional govt in Iraq
Gained international prominence since Iraqi and
Syrian Kurdish fight together ag. IS.
VI-

Civil war in Libya

2011: civil war and Qaddafis death after the

intervention of NATO and UN
- Lawless country 1700 rival militia groups
- since 2014: 2 gov
Libya: arms bazaar
Main militia groups:

Libya Dawn: anti-Qaddafi + alliance of

Islamists and militias
Libyan National Army
Ansar al-Sharia: Islamist militia for sharia in
Libya
Islamist state allied groups: local jihadi
groups and foreign fighters

Economic consequences

Lebanon (affected sectors tourism, real estate and

construction)
Jordan + than 630 000 Syrian refugees and
unemployment rate increased to 12.5%.
Turkey
Tunisia & Egypt: decrease of tourism
Oil exporters Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and
UAE : price dropped to $53 in 2015