Professional Documents
Culture Documents
4 Steps To The Future Worksheet
4 Steps To The Future Worksheet
4 Steps To The Future Worksheet
This is the first of five worksheets in the 4 Steps model. What happened
in the past? What drove change?
What Happened?
50 years ago
25 years ago
5 years ago
DAILY LIFE
Conflict &
Competition
SYSTEMS
New Ideas
and Values
Chance
VALUES
What Changed?
Other
STEP 1: PAST
Counter Trends
Social
Trends
Increasing
Trends
Political
Environmental
Decreasing
Trends
Stabilities
What things will slow or prevent change? Well call
these our Stabilities.
Common types of stability-enforcing things:
Today
Economic
Emerging Issues
Technological
3 years 5 years
10 years
15 years
20 years
25 years
2015 Richard A. K. Lum
STEP 2: PRESENT
Driving Change
Scenarios
Scenario A: _____________________
Daily Experience
Systems
Values
Daily Experience
Systems
Values
Daily Experience
Systems
Values
Daily Experience
Systems
Values
Combinations
Historical Drivers
of change
Scenario B: _____________________
Combinations
New Drivers
of change
Scenario C: _____________________
Combinations
Stabilities
Scenario D: _____________________
Combinations
STEP 3: FUTURES
Scenario Implications
Scenario: ____________________
1
Reacting
Resistors
Channelers
Accelerators
Current
Current
Current
Future
Future
Future
Assessing
What new products or markets open up to you in this scenario? What new strategies
would be successful? How would existing or proposed strategies fair in this scenario?
Goals
Strategies
Products/Services
Monitoring
STEP 3: FUTURES
There are three different basic reactions to the prospect of change: those who want to
resist the changes; those who accept that change is coming and want to channel it
according to their values; and those who want to accelerate or amplify the changes. How
would various stakeholders respond to this scenario? In this scenario, who becomes an ally
and who becomes a policy or strategy competitor?
Visioning
The Present:
1.
1.
1.
2.
3.
Foresight:
2.
The present,
2.
3.
3.
4.
4.
4.
5.
5.
5.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
2015 Richard A. K. Lum
STEP 4: ASPIRATION
Quick Reference
Principles
The future does not exist (were all helping to create it)
There are many possible futures
Those futures are constantly in flux
Everyday Habits