SURVEY OF EXPECTATIONS

(January 2017)

STATISTICS DEPARTMENT
REAL SECTOR DATA DIVISION

January 19, 2017

 Statistics Department

SURVEY OF EXPECTATIONS
(January 2017)

Inflation Expectations

Monthly Inflation Expectations

Graph 1. Monthly CPI Inflation Expectations Graph 2. Monthly CPI Inflation Expectations by Survey
Periods

% Current Month %
1.60 Next Month
1.60 November-16
1.40 2nd Month Ahead
December-16
1.40
1.20 January-17
1.20
1.00
1.00
0.80
0.80
0.60

0.40 0.60

0.20 0.40

0.00 0.20

0.00
January-2017 February-2017 March-2017

Annual Inflation Expectations

Graph 3. Annual CPI Inflation Expectations

% End of the Current Year

End of the Next 12 Months
9.00
End of the Next 24 Months
8.50

8.00

7.50

7.00

6.50

6.00

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 Statistics Department

Distributions of 12 and 24 Month Ahead Inflation Expectations

12-Month Ahead Inflation Expectations

Graph 4. Probability Distribution of 12-Month Ahead CPI Graph 5. Distribution of Point Estimates for 12-Month Ahead
Inflation Expectations CPI Inflation

% %
30 40

35
25
30
20
25

15 20

15
10
10
5 5

0 0
< 5.50 - 6.00 - 6.50 - 7.00 - 7.50 - 8.00 - 8.50 - 9.00 - >= < 5.50 - 6.00 - 6.50 - 7.00 - 7.50 - 8.00 - 8.50 - 9.00 - >=
5.50 5.99 6.49 6.99 7.49 7.99 8.49 8.99 9.49 9.5 5.50 5.99 6.49 6.99 7.49 7.99 8.49 8.99 9.49 9.5

24-Month Ahead Inflation Expectations

Graph 6. Probability Distribution of 24-Month Ahead CPI Graph 7. Distribution of Point Estimates for 24-Month Ahead
Inflation Expectations CPI Inflation

% %

50 70
45
60
40
35 50

30
40
25
20 30

15 20
10
10
5
0 0
< 4.5 4.50 - 5.49 5.50 - 6.49 6.50 - 7.49 >= 7.50 < 4.5 4.50 - 5.49 5.50 - 6.49 6.50 - 7.49 >= 7.50

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 Statistics Department

Interest Rate Expectations

Graph 8. BIST Repo and Reverse Repo Overnight Interest Rate and Graph 9. Interest Rate of GDDS with Maturity of About Three
Weighted Average Cost of the CBRT Funding Months

%
BIST Repo and Reverse Repo Overnight Interest Rate (End of the % December-16 January-17
12.00 Current Month)
12.00
Weighted Average Cost of the CBRT Funding (Current Month)
11.00
10.00
10.00
8.00
9.00
6.00
8.00
4.00
7.00
2.00
6.00
0.00
Current 1-Month 3-Month 6-Month 12-Month 24-Month
Month Ahead Ahead Ahead Ahead Ahead

Graph 10. Long-Term Interest Rate Expectations Graph 11. One-week CBRT Repo Aution Interest Rate

%
Interest Rate of GDDS with Maturity of About 5 Years (12 % December-16 January-17
12.00 Months Ahead)
10.00
Interest Rate of GDDS with Maturity of About 10 Years (12
Months Ahead)
11.00 8.00

10.00 6.00

4.00
9.00

2.00
8.00

0.00
Current 3-Month 6-Month 12-Month 24-Month
Month Ahead Ahead Ahead Ahead

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 Statistics Department

Exchange Rate Expectations

Graph 12. US Dollar Rate Expectations

$/TL
End of the Current Month
4.00
End of the Current Year
End of the Next 12 Months
3.80

3.60

3.40

3.20

3.00

2.80

Current Account Balance Expectations

Graph 13. Current Account Balance Expectations for 2017 Graph 14. Current Account Balance Expectations for 2018

-30.0
-30.0

-32.0
-32.0

-34.0
-34.0

-36.0 -36.0

-38.0 -38.0

-40.0 -40.0
US Dollars US Dollars
(Billions) (Billions)

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 Statistics Department

GDP Growth Rate Expectations

Graph 15. GDP Growth Rate Expectations for 2017 Graph 16. GDP Growth Rate Expectations for 2018

% %
4.0 4.0

3.0 3.0

2.0 2.0

1.0 1.0

0.0 0.0

The Survey of Expectations is conducted on a monthly basis with a panel of 110 participants consisting of 79 experts from the financial sector, 17
experts from the real sector, 9 experts from foreign financial institutions and 5 professionals.

Expectations denote the modified mean for each variable.

The methodology and results are available at the web site http://www.tcmb.gov.tr under the menu Statistics/Tendency Surveys/Survey of
Expectations . Historical results are also released under the menu Statistics/Statistical Data (EDDS)/Surveys .

The survey results are compiled from the responses of the participants and do not reflect the views or predictions of the Central Bank of the Republic of
Turkey.

For any views and suggestions:

E-mail: beklenti.anketi@tcmb.gov .tr

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 Statistics Department

(*)
Survey of Expectations Aggregated Results
(January 2017)

Monthly Inflation Annual Inflation

2nd Month End of the Year End of the Next End of the Next
Current Month Next Month Ahead (January-December) 12 Months 24 Months

What is your expectation of the CPI? (%) 1.44 0.69 0.76 8.48 8.19 7.59

End of the End of the Year End of the Next

Current Month 12 Months
What is your expectation of the US Dollar rate in the interbank foreign exchange market? 3.7675 3.8619 3.9553
(Turkish Lira-TRY) (Please indicate in four decimals)

Current Year Next Year

(January-December) (January-December)
What is your expectation of the annual current account balance? ( (+)Surplus, (-)Deficit ) ($ Billion) -35.4 -38.2

Current Year Next Year

(January-December) (January-December)

What is your expectation of the GDP growth rate? ( (+) Increase, (-) Decrease ) (%) 2.9 3.6

End of the
Current Month
What is your expectation of the weighted average cost of the CBRT funding? (%) 9.13

End of the
Current Month
What is your expectation of the Borsa Istanbul (BIST) Repo and Reverse Repo Market overnight interest rate? (%) 9.55

End of the 3-Month 6-Month 12-Month Ahead 24-Month Ahead

What is your expectation of one-week CBRT repo auction interest Current Month Ahead Ahead
rate? (%)
8.55 8.87 8.95 8.71 8.43

What is your expectation of Annually Compounded Interest End of the 1-Month Ahead 3-Month 6-Month 12-Month Ahead
Current Month Ahead Ahead 24-Month Ahead
Rate of TRY Denominated GDDS with Maturity of About
Three Months? (% ) 10.39 10.53 10.50 10.38 10.11 9.79

What is your expectation of the Secondary Market Annually Compounded Interest Rate of Fixed Rate TRY Denominated 12-Month Ahead
GDDS with Maturity of About Five Years? (%) 11.03

What is your expectation of the Secondary Market Annually Compounded Interest Rate of Fixed Rate TRY Denominated 12-Month Ahead
GDDS with Maturity of About Ten Years? (%) 11.13

(*) The figures denote the modified means.