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1997 Zimbabwe's Turning Point

(Thursday 15 January, 1998)

A crisis has been defined as a turning point or a time of acute danger. Thus defined, is
Zimbabwe at a turning point and in acute danger? What turning point, and what danger? Will
we survive until the year 2000 and 2002 when the leadership's mandate is due for renewal?
What must be done if we must survive until then and beyond? These are the concerns of this
week's contribution.

The year 1997 was Zimbabwe's turning point, and it revealed that the country is in acute
danger. This was the year when, in an unprecedented move, President Robert Mugabe was
forced to accede to the demands of former freedom fighters, a constituency crucial to the
survival of his commandist party; this was the year when, in another unprecedented move,
the Zimbabwe Parliament woke up from 17 years of sublime and shameful slumber and said
no to a chief executive who had privatized the exercise of public office; this was the year
when, in yet another unprecedented move, the ruling ZANU PF party national assembly
unanimously said no to its president-and-first-secretary who appeared to have losat
touch with grassroots sentiment; this is the year when the land question aroused more
anxieties and the year when the Zimbabwe dollar became Zimkwacha, a piece of paper,
losing nearly 100 percent of its value overnight; and more significantly, 1997 was the year
when the Zimbabwe people by the nationwide demonstration against arbitrary taxation,
rediscovered their people's power. What a year 1997 was! It was, without a doubt, a
turning point.

The country is in acute danger in that it is now being run by a leadership and party that have
lost popular support and therefore no longer have the legitimacy to continue in office. The
people have lost confidence in the leadership. The mandate the President got from 31 percent
of the participating electorate during the 1996 presidential election is bound to have
appreciably thinned by now if the events of 1997 be considered seriously, which they must.

The country is now being run by a leadership that has lost international respect and
credibility. There was a time when one could proudly say I am from Zimbabwe in foreign
lands and everybody listened. Today you would have to say I am from South(ern) Africa to
get someone's serious attention, even from fellow Africans who used to hold us in such owe
and admiration. We have become laughing stock almost overnight. We have to hire help from
Zambia to oversee our airspace because we can't pay our own air traffic controllers a living
wage! There is in the country today a serious school of thought suggesting that Zimbabwe's
present woes stem from the fact that the country is now run by a top and therefore strategic
leadership that no longer has ideas of what it is doing, nor a vision of the future anymore.
Moreover, what vision remains in this leadership is incapable of going beyond the liberation
war. This is a function of static circulation of leadership and of overstaying in power.

The average age of the top men who make and who have been making the strategic decisions
of the ruling party and this country over the past 17 years is now 73 years. All mortals get
exhausted; they get burned out; literally, like candles, once they burn out, they need
replacing.
Whatever energy remains in the present leadership will increasingly get less and less, and
whatever vision they still posses will become more and more blurred. The country's
leadership has long reached its level of incompetence and the process of the law of
diminishing returns has irreversibly been set in motion. According to this law, when
human judgment starts to be erratic it does not improve but worsens with deteriorating age.
Therefore, for this country to regain energy and vision, and go forward, there is need for
leadership rejuvenation. The aged leadership must be replaced. This is not being unkind to
our old Bolsheviks but merely coming to terms with the reality that awaits us all.

There are three discernible political opinions or suggestions about the way out of the present
confidence crisis. The first is that President Mugabe should dissolve Parliament and his
Cabinet and call for early parliamentary and presidential elections. We need a parliament and
Cabinet with a new mandate from the people if we are to overcome the current confidence
crisis. Amendments to make the constitution democratic would be an added advantage and a
booster.

The second body of opinion does not see the turning point and the acute danger or
crisis suggested above. Its proponents denounce such suggestions as preposterous and
alarmist. At worst, the suggestions of a crisis are seen as mischievous, the work of
white racists in collaboration with people who never fought in the liberation war. This
view sees things as business as usual. Let's get to the year 2000 and 2002, and again the
'best at the game' will win!, says this view.

The third opinion is somewhat akin to the first in that it suggests that both Parliament and the
government should dissolve. The difference, however, is that this view suggests that both the
government and Parliament might have to be forced to dissolve by the people in the most
vulgar manner, as in another nationwide strike against policies that rob Hunzvi to pay
Masipula or is it the other way round? Seriously, this view sees life in Zimbabwe getting
worse and worse by the day for the common person, who, incidentally, knows about the
second, business as usual, insouciant view. As in the past, civil society would spearhead
such mass action and it would certainly entail demands for a new and democratic
constitution.

Which view makes the most sense? The first scenario probably makes the most democratic
sense, and therefore is not likely to be considered seriously by the ZANU PF fathers. While
the second, insouciant view would be the most attractive to the ruling party, it might be
mellowed by the spectre of the third scenario democratization through mass action on the
streets.

A fourth scenario might therefore be considered where President Mugabe announces his
early retirement and induces some of his elderly collegues to retire with him and leave the
reins of power in capable young hands while they advise the transition from the background.
Something akin to the Julius Nyerere scenario in Tanzania. Such a scenario would be in the
interest of both his party and the country. Moreover, some in the opposition and civil society
could be included in a rejuvenated grand coalition. Further, in this context, a democratic
constitution could still be introduced.
Something needs to be done to revamp the political system and confidence in it. The second
scenario is irresponsible in that it leads to the third, which is certainly going to lead to what
every sane person doesn't wish for this country the fifth scenario; that of persons in
uniform sorting out our political problems. We all have a stake in this country. Zano
marairanwa.