Hypothesis

For the hypotheses of a theorem, see Theorem. For other 1 Uses

uses, see Hypothesis (disambiguation).
Hypothetical redirects here. For the 2001 progressive Remember, the way that you prove an
metal album, see Hypothetical (album). implication is by assuming the hypothesis. -
A hypothesis (plural hypotheses) is a proposed -Philip Wadler[2]

In its ancient usage, hypothesis referred to a summary of

the plot of a classical drama. The English word hypothesis
comes from the ancient Greek word hupothesis,
meaning to put under or to suppose.[1]
In Plato's Meno (86e87b), Socrates dissects virtue with
a method used by mathematicians,[3] that of investigat-
ing from a hypothesis.[4] In this sense, 'hypothesis refers
to a clever idea or to a convenient mathematical approach
that simplies cumbersome calculations.[5] Cardinal Bel-
larmine gave a famous example of this usage in the warn-
ing issued to Galileo in the early 17th century: that he
must not treat the motion of the Earth as a reality, but
merely as a hypothesis.[6]
In common usage in the 21st century, a hypothesis refers
to a provisional idea whose merit requires evaluation. For
proper evaluation, the framer of a hypothesis needs to de-
ne specics in operational terms. A hypothesis requires
more work by the researcher in order to either conrm
The hypothesis of Andreas Cellarius, showing the planetary mo- or disprove it. In due course, a conrmed hypothesis
tions in eccentric and epicyclical orbits.
may become part of a theory or occasionally may grow
to become a theory itself. Normally, scientic hypothe-
ses have the form of a mathematical model.[7] Sometimes,
but not always, one can also formulate them as existential
explanation for a phenomenon. For a hypothesis to be a statements, stating that some particular instance of the
scientic hypothesis, the scientic method requires that phenomenon under examination has some characteristic
one can test it. Scientists generally base scientic hy- and causal explanations, which have the general form of
potheses on previous observations that cannot satisfac- universal statements, stating that every instance of the
torily be explained with the available scientic theories. phenomenon has a particular characteristic.
Even though the words hypothesis and "theory" are of-
In Entrepreneurial science, a hypothesis is used to for-
ten used synonymously, a scientic hypothesis is not the mulate provisional ideas within a business setting. The
same as a scientic theory. A working hypothesis is a formulated hypothesis is then evaluated where either the
provisionally accepted hypothesis proposed for further hypothesis is proven to be true or false through a
research.[1] veriability- or falsiability-oriented Experiment.[8][9][10]
A dierent meaning of the term hypothesis is used in Any useful hypothesis will enable predictions by
formal logic, to denote the antecedent of a proposition; reasoning (including deductive reasoning). It might pre-
thus in the proposition If P, then Q", P denotes the hy- dict the outcome of an experiment in a laboratory set-
pothesis (or antecedent); Q can be called a consequent. P ting or the observation of a phenomenon in nature. The
is the assumption in a (possibly counterfactual) What If prediction may also invoke statistics and only talk about
question. probabilities. Karl Popper, following others, has argued
The adjective hypothetical, meaning having the nature of that a hypothesis must be falsiable, and that one can-
a hypothesis, or being assumed to exist as an immediate not regard a proposition or theory as scientic if it does
consequence of a hypothesis, can refer to any of these not admit the possibility of being shown false. Other
meanings of the term hypothesis. philosophers of science have rejected the criterion of

1
2 4 HYPOTHESES, CONCEPTS AND MEASUREMENT

falsiability or supplemented it with other criteria, such A working hypothesis is a hypothesis that is provisionally
as veriability (e.g., vericationism) or coherence (e.g., accepted as a basis for further research[15] in the hope
conrmation holism). The scientic method involves ex- that a tenable theory will be produced, even if the hy-
perimentation, to test the ability of some hypothesis to pothesis ultimately fails.[16] Like all hypotheses, a work-
adequately answer the question under investigation. In ing hypothesis is constructed as a statement of expec-
contrast, unfettered observation is not as likely to raise tations, which can be linked to the exploratory research
unexplained issues or open questions in science, as would purpose in empirical investigation. Working hypotheses
the formulation of a crucial experiment to test the hypoth- are often used as a conceptual framework in qualitative
esis. A thought experiment might also be used to test the research.[17][18]
hypothesis as well. The provisional nature of working hypotheses make them
In framing a hypothesis, the investigator must not cur- useful as an organizing device in applied research. Here
rently know the outcome of a test or that it remains they act like a useful guide to address problems that are
reasonably under continuing investigation. Only in still in a formative phase.[19]
such cases does the experiment, test or study poten- In recent years, philosophers of science have tried to in-
tially increase the probability of showing the truth of a tegrate the various approaches to evaluating hypotheses,
hypothesis.[11]:pp17,4950 If the researcher already knows and the scientic method in general, to form a more com-
the outcome, it counts as a consequence and the re- plete system that integrates the individual concerns of
searcher should have already considered this while formu- each approach. Notably, Imre Lakatos and Paul Feyer-
lating the hypothesis. If one cannot assess the predictions abend, Karl Poppers colleague and student, respectively,
by observation or by experience, the hypothesis needs to have produced novel attempts at such a synthesis.
be tested by others providing observations. For example,
a new technology or theory might make the necessary ex-
periments feasible.
4 Hypotheses, concepts and mea-
surement
2 Scientic hypothesis
Concepts in Hempels deductive-nomological model play
People refer to a trial solution to a problem as a hypothe- a key role in the development and testing of hypotheses.
sis, often called an educated guess[12][13] because it pro- Most formal hypotheses connect concepts by specifying
vides a suggested solution based on the evidence. How- the expected relationships between propositions. When
ever, some scientists reject the term educated guess as a set of hypotheses are grouped together they become
incorrect. Experimenters may test and reject several hy- a type of conceptual framework. When a conceptual
potheses before solving the problem. framework is complex and incorporates causality or ex-
According to Schick and Vaughn,[14] researchers weigh- planation it is generally referred to as a theory. Accord-
ing up alternative hypotheses may take into consideration: ing to noted philosopher of science Carl Gustav Hempel
An adequate empirical interpretation turns a theoretical
system into a testable theory: The hypothesis whose con-
Testability (compare falsiability as discussed stituent terms have been interpreted become capable of
above) test by reference to observable phenomena. Frequently
the interpreted hypothesis will be derivative hypotheses
Parsimony (as in the application of "Occams razor",
of the theory; but their conrmation or disconrmation
discouraging the postulation of excessive numbers
by empirical data will then immediately strengthen or
of entities)
weaken also the primitive hypotheses from which they
Scope the apparent application of the hypothesis were derived.[20]
to multiple cases of phenomena Hempel provides a useful metaphor that describes the
relationship between a conceptual framework and the
Fruitfulness the prospect that a hypothesis may ex-
framework as it is observed and perhaps tested (inter-
plain further phenomena in the future
preted framework). The whole system oats, as it were,
Conservatism the degree of t with existing rec- above the plane of observation and is anchored to it by
ognized knowledge-systems. rules of interpretation. These might be viewed as strings
which are not part of the network but link certain points
of the latter with specic places in the plane of observa-
tion. By virtue of those interpretative connections, the
3 Working hypothesis network can function as a scientic theory.[21] Hypothe-
ses with concepts anchored in the plane of observation
Main article: Working hypothesis are ready to be tested. In actual scientic practice the
process of framing a theoretical structure and of inter-

preting it are not always sharply separated, since the in-
tended interpretation usually guides the construction of
the theoretician.[22] It is, however, possible and indeed
desirable, for the purposes of logical clarication, to sep-
arate the two steps conceptually.[22]
4.1 Statistical hypothesis testing
Main article: Statistical hypothesis testing
When a possible correlation or similar relation between
phenomena is investigated, such as whether a proposed
remedy is eective in treating a disease, the hypothesis
that a relation exists cannot be examined the same way
one might examine a proposed new law of nature. In such
an investigation, if the tested remedy shows no eect in
a few cases, these do not necessarily falsify the hypoth-
esis. Instead, statistical tests are used to determine how
likely it is that the overall eect would be observed if the
hypothesized relation does not exist. If that likelihood is
suciently small (e.g., less than 1%), the existence of a
relation may be assumed. Otherwise, any observed eect
may be due to pure chance.
In statistical hypothesis testing, two hypotheses are com-
pared. These are called the null hypothesis and the
alternative hypothesis. The null hypothesis is the hypoth-
esis that states that there is no relation between the phe-
nomena whose relation is under investigation, or at least
not of the form given by the alternative hypothesis. The
alternative hypothesis, as the name suggests, is the alter-
native to the null hypothesis: it states that there is some
kind of relation. The alternative hypothesis may take sev-
eral forms, depending on the nature of the hypothesized
relation; in particular, it can be two-sided (for example:
there is some eect, in a yet unknown direction) or one-
sided (the direction of the hypothesized relation, positive
or negative, is xed in advance).[23]
Conventional signicance levels for testing hypotheses
(acceptable probabilities of wrongly rejecting a true null
hypothesis) are .10, .05, and .01. Whether the null hy-
pothesis is rejected and the alternative hypothesis is ac-
cepted, must be determined in advance, before the ob-
servations are collected or inspected. If these criteria are
determined later, when the data to be tested are already
known, the test is invalid.[24]
The above procedure is actually dependent on the num-
ber of the participants (units or sample size) that is in-
cluded in the study. For instance, the sample size may be
too small to reject a null hypothesis and, therefore, it is
recommended to specify the sample size from the begin-
ning. It is advisable to dene a small, medium and large
eect size for each of a number of important statistical
tests which are used to test the hypotheses.[25]
3
5 See also
Axiom
Case study
Conjecture
Explanandum
Hypothesis theory a research area in cognitive psy-
chology
Logical positivism
Operationalization
Philosophiae Naturalis Principia Mathematica for
Newtons position on hypotheses
Reductionism
Research design
Sociology of scientic knowledge
Theorem
Thesis statement
6 References
[1] Hilborn, Ray; Mangel, Marc (1997). The ecological detec-
tive: confronting models with data. Princeton University
Press. p. 24. ISBN 978-0-691-03497-3. Retrieved 22
August 2011.
[2] Philip Wadler, 2 November 2015 Keynote: Propositions
as Types. Minute 14:36 /55:28 of Code Mesh video clip
[3] Wilbur R. Knorr, Construction as existence proof in an-
cient geometry, p. 125, as selected by Jean Christianidis
(ed.), Classics in the history of Greek mathematics, Kluwer.
[4] Gregory Vlastos, Myles Burnyeat (1994) Socratic studies,
Cambridge ISBN 0-521-44735-6, p. 1
[5] Neutral hypotheses, those of which the subject matter can
never be directly proved or disproved, are very numerous
in all sciences. Morris Cohen and Ernest Nagel (1934)
An introduction to logic and scientic method p. 375. New
York: Harcourt, Brace, and Company.
[6] Bellarmine (Ital. Bellarmino), Roberto Francesco Ro-
molo, Encyclopdia Britannica, Eleventh Edition.: 'Bel-
larmine did not proscribe the Copernican system ... all
he claimed was that it should be presented as a hypothesis
until it should receive scientic demonstration.' This arti-
cle incorporates text from a publication now in the public
domain: Chisholm, Hugh, ed. (1911). "article name needed ".
Encyclopdia Britannica (11th ed.). Cambridge Univer-
sity Press.
4 8 EXTERNAL LINKS

[7] Crease, Robert P. (2008) The Great Equations ISBN 978-
0-393-06204-5, p.112 lists the conservation of energy as
an example of accounting a constant of motion. Hy-
pothesized by Sadi Carnot, truth demonstrated by James
Prescott Joule, proven by Emmy Noether.
[8] Harvard Business Review (2013) Why Lean Startup
Changes Everything
[9] Tristan Kromer 2014 Success Metric vs. Fail Condition
[21] Hempel, C. G. (1952). Fundamentals of concept forma-
tion in empirical science. Chicago, Illinois: The Univer-
sity of Chicago Press, p. 36.
[22] Hempel, C. G. (1952). Fundamentals of concept forma-
tion in empirical science. Chicago, Illinois: The Univer-
sity of Chicago Press, p. 33.
[23] Altman. DG., Practical Statistics for Medical Research,
CRC Press, 1990, Section 8.5,

[10] Lean Startup Circle What is Lean Startup?"
[11] Popper 1959
[12] When it is not clear under which law of nature an eect or
class of eect belongs, we try to ll this gap by means of a
guess. Such guesses have been given the name conjectures
or hypotheses., Hans Christian rsted(1811) First Intro-
duction to General Physics 18. Selected Scientic Works
of Hans Christian rsted, ISBN 0-691-04334-5 p.297
[24] Mellenbergh, G.J.(2008). Chapter 8: Research designs:
Testing of research hypotheses. In H.J. Adr & G.J. Mel-
lenbergh (Eds.) (with contributions by D.J. Hand), Advis-
ing on Research Methods: A consultants companion (pp.
183-209). Huizen, The Netherlands: Johannes van Kessel
Publishing
[25] Altman. DG., Practical Statistics for Medical Research,
CRC Press, 1990, Section 15.3,

[13] In general we look for a new law by the following process.

First we guess it. ..., Richard Feynman (1965) The 7 Bibliography
Character of Physical Law p.156

[14] Schick, Theodore; Vaughn, Lewis (2002). How to think Popper, Karl R. (1959), The Logic of Scientic Dis-
about weird things: critical thinking for a New Age. covery 1934, 1959.
Boston: McGraw-Hill Higher Education. ISBN 0-7674-
2048-9.

[15] Oxford Dictionary of Sports Science & Medicine. Eprint 8 External links
via Answers.com.

[16] See in hypothesis, Century Dictionary Supplement, v. 1,

How science works, Understanding Science by the
1909, New York: The Century Company. Reprinted, v. University of California Museum of Paleontology.
11, p. 616 (via Internet Archive) of the Century Dictionary
and Cyclopedia, 1911.

hypothesis [...]Working hypothesis,

a hypothesis suggested or supported in some
measure by features of observed facts, from
which consequences may be deduced which
can be tested by experiment and special ob-
servations, and which it is proposed to subject
to an extended course of such investigation,
with the hope that, even should the hypoth-
esis thus be overthrown, such research may
lead to a tenable theory.

[17] Patricia M. Shields, Hassan Tajalli (2006). Intermediate

Theory: The Missing Link in Successful Student Scholar-
ship. Journal of Public Aairs Education. 12 (3): 313
334.

[18] Patricia M. Shields (1998). Pragmatism As a Philosophy

of Science: A Tool For Public Administration. In Jay D.
White. Research in Public Administration. 4. pp. 195
225 [211]. ISBN 1-55938-888-9.

[19] Patricia M. Shields and Nandhini Rangarajan. 2013. A

Playbook for Research Methods: Integrating Conceptual
Frameworks and Project Management]. Stillwater, OK:
New Forums Press. pp. 109-157

[20] Hempel, C. G. (1952). Fundamentals of concept forma-

tion in empirical science. Chicago, Illinois: The Univer-
sity of Chicago Press, p. 36
 5

9 Text and image sources, contributors, and licenses

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Hypothesis Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothesis?oldid=762045590 Contributors: Mav, Ed Poor, Youssefsan, William Avery,
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