Transitions in World Population

(March 2004) World population was transformed in the 20th century as

technological and social changes brought steep declines in birth rates and death
rates around the world. The century began with 1.6 billion people and ended with
6.1 billion, mainly because of unprecedented growth after 1960. The momentum
created by this population growth will carry us past 7 billion by 2015. Beyond
that, the future of world population is less certain.

Public discourse on population today tends to flow in one of two directions. One
emphasizes the continued growth in the less developed regions, and the
economic, social, environmental, and political strains associated with adding a
few billion more people in the next 50 years.

The other focus centers around the unprecedented low fertility in many countries.
About 40 percent of the world's population lives in countries in which couples
have so few children that the countries' populations are likely to decline over the
long term. These countries, which include China and most of Europe, must
grapple with social, economic, environmental, and political challenges associated
with aging and eventually dwindling populations. And, if fertility rates continue to
fall around the world, more countries will face this low-fertility predicament.

Are we experiencing a population explosion or birth dearth? The answer may be

both. And these two opposing trendspopulation growth and population decline
call for very different policies and contingencies. Those addressing population
growth sometimes compete in funds, attention, and credibility with those
concerned with population decline.

But the demographic reality is more complex and less certain than this simple
dichotomy suggests. The United Nations warns that fertility decline in poor
countries may halt unless couples have access to family planning, for example.
Population decline in low-fertility countries could be slowed by massive
immigrationor even by a baby boom. And researchers are looking beyond
population numbersto age, education, and other characteristicsto study links
between population change and economic, environmental, and political trends.
It is almost certain that nearly all future population growth will occur in the
developing regions of the world. Urban areas in these regions will absorb most of
the additional people. Population is growing fastest among the poorest
population groups within developing countries. In these countries, a "youth
bulge" ensures that the absolute number of births will rise even as couples are
having fewer children.

At the other extreme, most countries in Europe now have a "youth dearth" after
decades of low fertility. Stagnant growth or even population decline is
challenging more countries as fewer workers must support expanding pension
and social security systems for their aging citizens.

Governments have crafted a range of population policies to address these and

other issues over the last half-century. In developing countries, policies include
support for family planning and reproductive health programs and efforts to
improve women's status, to enable women to have the number of children they
want. In developed countries, particularly Japan and parts of Europe,
governments have implemented policies to promote gender equality in the
workplace and ease the burden of childrearingall to encourage women to have
more children.

The factors that drive childbearing trendssuch as the economy, education,

gender relations, and access to family planningare numerous and complex,
and public policies and programs to influence population trends must address
many issues at once. Demographic changes often take years to be evident,
making it difficult to predict how today's actions will affect the future size and
distribution of populations. Small changes in childbearing trends today have huge
implications for future population size.

This Population Bulletin chronicles changes in world population in the last

century, with a particular focus on the last 50 years. It examines the social and
economic factors that affect population change, including wide disparities in
income, education, and women's status within countries. It also discusses the
heightened international concern since the 1950s about rapid population growth,
widespread fertility declines, and the new world consensus reached in the 1990s
about how best to respond to population trends. It reviews the factors that have
led to low fertility in Europe, Japan, and other areas and how governments there
have begun to respond. Whether or not these responses bring the desired
population change, their common goal is to improve the quality of life for
individuals in the 21st century.

Lori S. Ashford is a technical director for policy information at PRB.

Carl Haub is a senior demographer at PRB.

Mary M. Kent is editor of the Population Bulletin series, and has edited and
written numerous reports on population-related topics.

Nancy V. Yinger is director of PRB's International Programs.