ESRLRAP/HRRRupdatesJanApr2013

Effectiveconcludingwiththe23UTC06April2013cycletheESRL/GSDRAPandHRRRhavebeen
upgradedtoincludethefollowingdataassimilationandmodelchanges:

ESRLRAP13kmDataAssimilationChanges(inchronologicalorder):

(1)UpdatedGridpointStatisticalInterpolation(GSI)packagetoarecenttrunkrevision(changeeffective08
UTC15January2013).
Importantforconsistencywithtrunkcode
Changeinforecastqualitysmall

(2)Modifiedtheprecipitationanalysistoproperlyspecifysnowfromobservedradarreflectivitiesand
backgroundsnowinfullmodelcolumnsundercoldsurfaceconditions(<5C)andspecifyrainand/orsnowat
thelevelofmaximumobservedradarreflectivityunderwarmersurfaceconditions(>5C).Rainandsnowis
removed(cleared)fromthemodelatalllocationswheretheradarobservationsindicatenoprecipitationwhen
overthewarmersurface(changeseffective06UTC29January2013).
Changeinforecastqualitymediumespeciallyforwinterseason

(3)EnabledGSIhybriddataassimilationwithmodelbackgrounderrorcovariancesnowincludingaflow
(weather)dependencederivedfromaGFS80memberensembleforecastat60kmusingtheEnsemble
KalmanFilterincombinationwithastatic3Dmodelbackgrounderrorcovariancetoimprovethe
assimilationofallobservations.Aslightlytighterfittoupperlevelobservationsattheanalysistimeand
throughouttheforecastperiodcanbeexpected(changeeffective06UTC27March2013).
Changeinforecastqualityhighforallapplicationsandseasons

(4)Snowandrainhydrometeors,nowincludingsnowandrainmixingratiosandrainnumberconcentration,
retrievedfromradarreflectivityobservationsusingtheThompsonmicrophysicalrelationshipallowfora
reversiblemodelreflectivitydiagnostic(changeeffective06UTC27March2013).
Postprocessingchangeimportantforoutputreflectivityfields

(5)Changedthesoiltemperatureandmoistureadjustments,baseduponlowestleveltemperatureanddew
pointinnovations,tobesymmetricwithrespecttobothwarming/dryingandcooling/moisteningthesoil
conditions.Themagnitudeoftheadjustmentshasalsobeenincreased(changeseffective06UTC27
March2013).
Changeinforecastqualitymediumoverall,moreinwarmseason,minimizessoilmoisturebiases

(6)Modifiedtheinfluenceofsurface(METAR)ceilingobservationsunderconditionsofnearbyfractional
cloudcoverinthebackgroundfieldtoreflectobservedceilingat,atleast,boththenearestmodelgridpoint
andthesurroundingfourgridpointsbutallowretentionofnearbypartialcloudcover.(changeeffective06
UTC27March2013).
Changeinforecastqualitysmallbutimprovesinitialcloud(3dhydrometeor)fields

(7)ChangedthecycledsnowcoverfieldsintheRAPthroughmodificationsinbuildingand/orremovalof
snowcoverinthe00UTCcyclebasedupontheInteractiveMultisensorSnowandIceMappingSystem
(IMS)snowcoveranalysis.Surfacetemperaturedependencehasbeenremovedfromthesnowtrimming
analysis.SnowbuildingcapabilityisenabledwhensurfacetemperatureT<278K.(changeeffective17
UTC13March2013).
Changeinforecastqualitymediumfor2mtemperature,correctslargelocalsurfacetemperature
errorsfromerroneoussnowcover,especiallyinspringandlatewinter(smalloverall)

ESRLRAP13kmModelChanges(inchronologicalorder):

(1)Increasedthesurfaceroughnesslengthvaluesforforests,croplandandurbanlandusecategoriesto
helpreducethehighwindspeedbiasnearthesurface.Addedseasonalvariationstoleafareaindexand
croplandroughnesslength.Implementedexponentialformulationtodefineeffectiveroughnesslengthinthe
gridcellfromcontributionsofalllandusecategoriesinthegridcell.Othersurfacecharacteristicsare
definedfromweightedaverageformulation.(changeseffective07UTC09March2013).
Changeinforecastqualitymediumfornearsurfacewindforecasts,smalloverall

(2)AddedacorrectiontotheGoddardshortwaveradiationschemetoallowforattenuationthroughsnowand
reduceexcessivewarmingofthesurfaceconditionsduringthedaytimeinregionsofsnowprecipitation
(changeeffective07UTC09March2013).
Changeinforecastqualitysmalloverall(butcorrectswarmbiasandevenprecipitationtypeerror
incertainsituations)

(3)Increasedthenumberofsoillevels/layersintheRUCbasedlandsurfacemodelfromsixtoninebetween
thesurfaceand3mbelowgroundlevelformoreaccurategroundandsurfacesensibleandlatentheatfluxes
(changeeffective15UTC13March2013).
Changeinforecastqualitysmalloverallbutimprovesdiurnalcycleoftemperatureandboundary
layerbehaviorinforecasts

(4)UpdatedAdvancedWeatherandResearchForecastmodel(WRFARW)fromaversion3.3.1codebase
toaversion3.4.1codebaseincludinganupdatedThompsonmicrophysicsversion(changeseffective06
UTC27March2013).
Importantforconsistencywithcommunitycode
Changeinforecastqualitysmalloverall

(5)AdjustedthemodelradarreflectivitydiagnostictomaintainconsistencywiththelatestThompson
microphysicsschemeandensurereversibilitywiththeretrievalofrainandsnowhydrometeorsfromradar
reflectivityobservations(changeseffective06UTC27March2013).
Postprocessingchangeimportantforoutputreflectivityfields

(6)ChangedthesurfaceandboundarylayerparameterizationschemetoMYNN
(MellorYamadaNakanishiNiino)fromMYJ(MellorYamadaJanjic)includingadditionalmodificationstothe
MYNNboundarylayerparameterizationfordecreaseddiffusivityandimprovedlowlevelwindand
temperatureforecastswithareduceddiurnaltemperaturebias(changeeffective23UTC03April2013).
Changeinforecastqualitymediumhighoverallespeciallyinlowertroposphericwindforecasts

HRRR3kmDataAssimilationChanges(inchronologicalorder):

(1)Introduceddirect3kmdataassimilationusinga01hrold13kmESRLRAPpostDFI(digitalfilter
initialization)analysisasafirstguess,followedbyassimilationofradarreflectivityderivedlatentheatingat
15minintervalsthrougha1hourperiodbeforeapplyingacompleteGSI3Dvariationalanalysisusingmost
observationsat3kmandthenapplyanonvariationalcloudandprecipitationhydrometeoranalysis.This
changewillproduceaverynoticeableincreaseinsmallerstormscalestructuresintheHRRR00hranalysis
andtransitionthroughthefirstseveralforecasthours(changeseffective23UTC06April2013).
Changeinforecastqualityhighforconvectivestormandprecipitationforecastsinfirst34h,
mediumotherwise

HRRR3kmModelChanges(inchronologicalorder):

(1)Increasedthesurfaceroughnesslengthvaluesforforests,croplandandurbanlandusecategoriesto
helpreducethehighwindspeedbiasnearthesurface.Addedseasonalvariationstoleafareaindexand
croplandroughnesslength.Implementedexponentialformulationtodefineeffectiveroughnesslengthinthe
gridcellfromcontributionsofalllandusecategoriesinthegridcell.Othersurfacecharacteristicsare
definedfromweightedaverageformulation.(changeseffective07UTC09March2013).
Changeinforecastqualitymediumfornearsurfacewindforecasts(forareaswithforest,cropland,
urbanlandusecategories),smalloverall

(2)Increasedthenumberofsoillevels/layersintheRUCbasedlandsurfacemodelfromsixtoninebetween
thesurfaceand3mbelowgroundlevelformoreaccurategroundandsurfacesensibleandlatentheatfluxes
(changeeffective21UTC13March2013).
Changeinforecastqualitysmalloverall(butcorrectswarmbiasandevenprecipitationtypeerror
incertainsituations)

(3)UpdatedAdvancedWeatherandResearchForecastmodel(WRFARW)fromaversion3.3.1codebase
toaversion3.4.1codebaseincludinganupdatedThompsonmicrophysicsversion(changeseffective19
UTC30March2013).
Importantforconsistencywithcommunitycode
Changeinforecastqualitysmalloverall

(4)ChangedfromDudhiatoGoddardshortwaveradiationschemeincludingthecorrectionforattenuation
throughsnowandisnowconsistentwiththeuseofamodelpressuretopabove50hPa(changeeffective
19UTC30March2013).
Changeinforecastqualitysmalloverall(butcorrectswarmbiasandevenprecipitationtypeerror
incertainsituations)

(5)AdjustedthemodelradarreflectivitydiagnostictomaintainconsistencywiththelatestThompson
microphysicsschemeandensurereversibilitywiththeretrievalofrainandsnowhydrometeorsfromradar
reflectivityobservations(changeeffective19UTC30March2013).
Postprocessingchangeimportantforoutputreflectivityfields

(6)ChangedthesurfaceandboundarylayerparameterizationschemetoMYNN
(MellorYamadaNakanishiNiino)fromMYJ(MellorYamadaJanjic)includingadditionalmodificationstothe
MYNNboundarylayerparameterizationfordecreaseddiffusivityandimprovedlowlevelwindand
temperatureforecastswithareduceddiurnaltemperaturebias(changeeffective01UTC04April2013).
Changeinforecastqualitymediumhighoverallespeciallyinlowertroposphericwindforecasts

(7)EnhancedtheHRRRpostprocessing(changeeffective19UTC30March2013),andalongwiththe
3kmdataassimilationconfigurationchange(changeeffective23UTC06April2013),reducedthelatency
ofHRRRforecastsbybetween30and45min.HRRRmodelforecastsforagivenhourlyrunwillnow
commenceatabout01hrafterthewallclocktimeandcomplete,includingallpostprocessedgrids,byjust
after02hrsafterthewallclocktime.
Changeinforecastqualitynone.A3045mindecreaseinlatencyisquiteimportantforHRRR
forecastusers.

TheESRLRAPandHRRRdataassimilationandmodelconfigurationswillnowremainfrozen,withthe
exceptionofsoftwarebugfixes,throughtheremainderofthespring,summerandearlyfallwiththenext
changesbeingappliedonorafter01November2013.