IB Mathematics Higher Level

Internal Assessment

Modeling the Infrastructure Budget of Samarinda and

Surabaya Cities Based on Population and Wage

Candidate Name: Sadha Satya Lotan

Candidate Number: 002115 0019

School Name: Cita Hati Christian High School

Session: May 2016

Introduction

I was born in Indonesia, to be more specific in Samarinda, East Kalimantan. In 2013, I started
my new life of senior high school in Surabaya, East Java. I faced shocking different cultures,
different people, and different environment. I think Surabaya is a more developed city than
Samarinda, obviously since it is located in Java Island, where Jakarta as the capital city is also
located, allowing a greater level of modernization. In Surabaya, there are much more people
compared to in Samarinda. This makes me think that size of populations may influence the
infrastructure of a region. However, being a person born in Samarinda makes me wonder how
these differences would be in the future, will they still be the same or different? I am sure there
will be a change in it, but I wonder when the greatest change will occur. This would also be
beneficial for me who was born in Samarinda, to be able to contribute to my own homeland and
improve it for the betterment. This has inspired me the research question, How does the
infrastructure of Samarinda compare to Surabaya as time goes on and when is the greatest
change in the infrastructure?

Population Exponential Growth

Several mathematical models for population growth have been developed. The most basic one is
the population exponential growth, where the rate of the population growth is proportional to the
size of the populations itself. The rate of population growth could be expressed in the following
differential equation:

= [1]1

Where expresses the population, expresses the time and expresses the growth rate constant.
By using separable differential equation, we can integrate the differential equation in [1] become:
= [2]

When = 0, the constant = 0 where 0 is the initial population. Substituting it in [2]:

() = 0 [3]

According to this model, if = 0, () = 0 , indicating no change in population size. If < 0,

then () 0, leading the population to the extinction as time progresses to . If > 0, then
() , leading the population explosion as time progresses to . I think this is not a quite
realistic model because I will obtain either the extinction of the population, infinite population or
no change in population (but I observe there is population change from the data which will be
mentioned later, which contradicts with the model). There should also be a limit on the
population size to what environment can support. In real world, a lot of factors are limiting the
size of populations in a region; they are the area of land for living, the limit in food source, etc.

1
Math.duke.edu,. Population Growth Models. Retrieved 20 January 2016, from
https://www.math.duke.edu/education/postcalc/growth/growth2.html

1
Logistic Function

As I previously discussed, there are many factors limiting the size of a population. So, there is a
maximum size of population that can be supported by the environment, called carrying capacity.
By incorporating the idea of carrying capacity in mind, the exponential model in [1] can be
modified to be more realistic become:

= ( ) [4]2

expresses the carrying capacity of a certain environment. The model stated above is more

realistic because we could see that if > and > 0, then < 0, leading a decrease in the


size of population when carrying capacity is exceeded. Furthermore, when = , then =0

leading to no change in population size or the maximum population size. The equation in [4] can
be solved using separable differential equation:

() = . [5]
( )

Partial fraction is needed in integrating [5] successfully. We know that:

1 1 1
= + [6]
( )

Substituting [6] into [5]:

1 1
( + ) = . [7]

Now integrating [7]:

1 1
( + ) = . [8]

ln() = + [9]

= [10]

At = 0, the constant =
0
. Substituting it in [10]:
0

()
=
0
[11]
() 0

0
() = ( +
[12]
0 ) 0

2
Vandermeer, J. (2010). How Populations Grow: The Exponential and Logistic Equations. Nature Education
Knowledge, 3(10), 15.

2
Determining Constant

Jakarta is the most crowded city in Indonesia. Therefore, the carrying capacity of Samarinda and
Surabaya will be determined by assuming their population densities (population size per unit
area) in the condition of maximum population (or carrying capacity is reached) are equal to the
population density of Jakarta right now. The rate constant of the population growth will be
found through the data of the population of Samarinda and Surabaya in two different years.

Jakarta has area 662.33 km2 with population size 10,075,300 in 20143. Samarinda has area
718.00 km2 with population 805,688 in 2013 and 830,676 in 20144. Surabaya has area 326.36
km2 with population 2,821,900 in 2013 and 2,833,900 in 20145. The city of Samarinda will be
expressed in algebraic term while Surabaya is in term .

10,075,300
= 718.00 = 10,922,146
662.33
10,075,300
= 326.36 = 4,964,556
662.33
The carrying capacities of the two cities have been determined and both are higher than the
current population which improves its validity, that the population is still growing in size.

To find rate constant , equation in [12] will be manipulated to get a new expression for :
()(0 )
ln( )
0 (())
= [13]

The variable time will have unit year. Furthermore, = 0 is assumed to be in year 2013 and
= 1 is in year 2014. This assumption was made because I moved to Surabaya in 2013. By
using expression in [13], we will determine the rate constant of both cities:

830,676 (10,922,146 805,688)

ln ( )
805,688 (10,922,146 830,676)
= = 0.03302
1
2,833,900 (4,964,556 2,821,900)
ln ( )
2,821,900 (4,964,556 2,833,900)
= = 0.00986
1

3
Anonymous. (2016). INFOSTAT Informasi Statistik [Statistics Information]. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik
Provinsi DKI Jakarta
4
Sugianto, S. (2015). Statistik Daerah Kota Samarinda 2015 [Samarinda Statistics 2015]. Samarinda: Badan Pusat
Statistik Kota Samarinda.
5
Sunaryo,. (2015). Statistik Daerah Kota Surabaya 2015 [Surabaya Statistics 2015]. Surabaya: Badan Pusat
Statistik Kota Surabaya.

3
Both the rate constant show value greater than zero, indicating an increase in population size will
happen which fit with the data of population in 2013 and in 2014, where increase happened in
both cities.

So, the equation describing the population size in Samarinda and Surabaya can be written as
follow:
805,68810,922,146
Samarinda: () = (10,922,146805,688) 0.03302+805,688

.
() =
, , . + ,
2,821,9004,964,556
Surabaya: () = (4,964,5562,821,900) 0.00986+2,821,900

.
() =
, , . + , ,

As has been shown in the statistics of Samarinda and Surabaya population in 2013 and 2014,
there is a quite huge difference among them. This leads me to be curious in finding when the
population of Samarinda will equal to in Surabaya.

The population in Samarinda will equal to in Surabaya when:

() = ()

8.7998 1012 1.4010 1013

=
10,116,458 0.03302 + 805,688 2,142,656 0.00986 + 2,821,900

Solving the above equation using GDC, we will find:

= 52.862 = 3,421,900

This implies that using the model in this paper, at = 52.862 or between year 2065 and 2066,
the population in Samarinda will equal to in Surabaya which is 3,421,900 residents. At that time,
the infrastructure budget of Samarinda should equal to in Surabaya if they all have the same
wage.

4
The graph of population in Samarinda and Surabaya against time is plotted based on the
previously stated functions: (it should be noted that the graph below and so forth, is made based
on assumption of = 0 is in 2013, = 1 is in 2014 and so on)

Fig 1. Population of Samarinda and Surabaya against time using Fooplot 6

From the population function shown in Fig 1, population in Samarinda now is still in the
exponential phase where the population can still grow in a very fast rate. On the other hand,
population in Surabaya now seems to have reached transitional phase where the growth of
population has started to decrease and soon reach its carrying capacity.

Developing the Equation Wages in Infrastructure Budget

I do not think that the population size is the only factor contributing to the infrastructure. I realize
another factor contributing to the infrastructure which is also different between Samarinda and
Surabaya, the minimum wage policy, which I also often heard during studying Economics in my
first year in Surabaya. Infrastructure budget is obtained from the taxes collected from the people.
The infrastructure budget is therefore proportional to the population size and the wage earned;
which in this case, minimum wage is used to represent the wage earned in both cities. Since the
tax is directly proportional to the wage and assuming Samarinda and Surabaya have the same tax
(since they are in the same country, Indonesia), the calculation for taxes will be ignored and the
wages themselves will directly be used in calculation. Assuming everyones wage in both cities
is minimum wage (later addressed as wage only), the infrastructure budget can be expressed:

(, ) = [14]

6
Venkatraman, D. FooPlot | Online graphing calculator and function plotter. Fooplot.com. Retrieved 23 January
2016, from http://fooplot.com/

5
 expresses the infrastructure budget (since was already used for Surabaya, therefore I used
to avoid ambiguity while could also stand for money) and expresses the wage. Substituting
with its expression in [12], equation in [14] can be renewed to become:
0
(, ) = ( +
[15]
0 ) 0

Now, we could see that the infrastructure budget is dependent on variable time and wage .
The equation describing the infrastructure budget of both cities could be written as:

Samarinda:
.
(, ) =
, , . + ,
Surabaya:
.
(, ) =
, , . + , ,

A graph showing the interaction of the variables and resulting as in both cities will be
plotted based on the above functions:

Samarinda Surabaya

Fig 2. The interaction of variable time () and wage () resulting in variable budget () in Samarinda and
Surabaya using Online 3-D Function Grapher7

Where:
represents the time () in unit years.
represents the wage () in unit IDR.
represents the infrastructure budget () in unit IDR.
7
Livephysics.com,. Online 3-D Function Grapher. Retrieved 23 January 2016, from
http://www.livephysics.com/tools/mathematical-tools/online-3-d-function-grapher/

6
From Fig 2, it is seen that at around = 0 or around year 2013, the infrastructure budget of
Samarinda for any wage value is far less than in Surabaya, explaining the difference in the
degree of developed city I am now observing. Maximum infrastructure budget is observed when
population is maximal and the wage is raised. Based on Fig 2, Samarinda will has much greater
infrastructure budget in the future which is caused by the difference in population later on.

Partial Derivatives8

When looking at the shape in Fig 2., I find it interesting how infrastructure budget vary in
value as time and wage are changed. As can be seen in [15], the change in time and wage
will give impact to the changes in infrastructure budget . Realizing these things, I am
curious to see how the changes in time and wage change the infrastructure budget , so I
am applying the partial derivative to see the changes:
(,) 0 (0 )
= 2 [16]
((0 ) +0 )

(,) 0
= ( )
[17]
0 +0

Partial derivative of with respect to will determine the magnitude of the gradient of , with
being changed and kept constant. Partial derivative of with respect to will determine
the magnitude of the gradient of , with being changed and kept constant. In multivariable
function, a point could have more than one possible gradient, depending on the vector it moves
to. However, the largest gradient in a certain multivariable function can be denoted with a vector:
(,) (,)
= + [18]9

In this paper, the largest magnitude of the change in or its largest gradient can be obtained by
moving in term of vector: (the largest magnitude of the change in will later be addressed as
the rate of increase of to avoid ambiguity which might happen later)

(, ) = (,) + (,)
[19]

In Samarinda,

(, ) . .
=
(, , . + , )

(, ) .
=
, , . + ,
8
Dawkins, P. Calculus III - Partial Derivatives. Tutorial.math.lamar.edu. Retrieved 24 January 2016, from
http://tutorial.math.lamar.edu/Classes/CalcIII/PartialDerivatives.aspx
9
Khan, S. Gradient 1. Khan Academy. Retrieved 24 January 2016, from
https://www.khanacademy.org/math/multivariable-calculus/multivariable-derivatives/gradient-and-directional-
derivatives/v/gradient-1

7
In Surabaya,

(, ) . .
=
(, , . + , , )

(, ) .
=
, , . + , ,

A vector field showing the vector of the increase in can be plotted. However, several critical
points will first be determined.

Critical Points of the Vector Field

The variable itself could experience no change in a certain point despite changing the variable
and because the vector may have zero magnitude. These points are referred as the critical
points, and will be found by finding the solution when the vector does not move in direction
and direction.

We need to determine the solution when [16] or vector in direction, equals zero:

(, ) 0 ( 0 )
= 2 = 0
(( ) + )
0 0

The first solution is = 0.

The second solution is = 0. To get this second solution, therefore , which is
undefined in the real world. Therefore, the second solution will be ignored here.
However, indicates the carrying capacity is reached. This explains why the rate of
increase in budget will be shown only by vector in direction, because as time
progresses, there will be no change in the population (since carrying capacity has been
reached), causing the change in infrastructure budget to only be influenced by changing
the wage.
Next, we need to determine the solution when [17] or vector in direction, equals zero:

(, ) 0
= =0
( 0 ) + 0

Since the expression 0 is a positive constant, the solution can be obtained if ( 0 )

+ 0 . This could be fulfilled if , which is undefined. Furthermore, negative
value of indicates it happened in the past while we cannot reverse back the time, so we will
definitely ignore this solution. However, logically speaking, if , then based on [12] we
will get 0. When there is no population, there will be no infrastructure budget although
wage is changed. The rate of increase in at that point will be shown only by the vector in
direction, to let time pass allowing the population increase.

8
Since there is no defined solution for [17] equals zero, it implies that all points in the vector field
will always show magnitude, allowing the change or increase in variable . However, since
(,)
= 0 when = 0, this implies that although time passes by (and population increases),

the infrastructure budget will not change if the wage itself is 0. In addition, when = 0, the
increase in will be shown only by the vector in direction, indicating the need to raise the
wage for getting the budget which has been expected if we refer to equation in [14].

Divergence10

In a vector field, it is possible for a certain point to have the net vector movement equal zero, or
the vector directing into a certain point has the same magnitude as the vector directing out of that
same point. In this case of the model of the infrastructure budget, that point is interesting to find
as it indicates the point where the rate of increase of the infrastructure budget before that point is
the same with the one after that point. This point could be determined by using divergence,
which is the partial derivative of the vector component shown in [20].

(div (
)) (, ) =
(, ) [20]

It should be noted that in [20], it is actually an abuse of notation for placing the partial derivative
(, ) in [20] with the one in [19]:
notation with dot product. Substituting the expression

(,) (,)
(div (
)) (, ) = ( + ) [21]

2
(,) 2 (,)
(div (
)) (, ) = 2 + [22]
2

We will first find the second partial derivative of with respect to :

2
2 (,) ((0 ) +0 ) +2((0 ) +0 )(0 ) 2
= 4 [23]
2 ((0 ) +0 )

Next, we need to determine the second partial derivative of with respect to . From [17] we
know that the first partial derivative of with respect to has no variable anymore,
therefore:

2 (,)
=0 [24]
2

It has been expected for the second partial derivative of with respect to will equal zero,
since they initially have linear relationship shown in [14] and [15].

10
Khan, S. Divergence 3. Khan Academy. Retrieved 24 January 2016, from
https://www.khanacademy.org/math/multivariable-calculus/multivariable-derivatives/divergence/v/divergence-3

9
Now, we can substitute back [23] and [24] into [22]:
2
((0 )+0) +2((0 ) +0)(0)2
(div (
)) (, ) = 4 [25]
((0 )+0)

Factorizing [25] become:

((0 ) +0 )((0 ) +0 2(0 ) )

)) (, ) =
(div( 4 [26]
((0 ) +0 )

( ( ) )
)) (, ) =
(div( 0 0
3 [27]
((0 ) +0 )

Next, we need to determine the solution for when [27] equals zero:

(0 (0 ) )
3 =0
((0 ) +0 )

There will be three possible solutions:

The first solution is = 0. This is the same as the one we have discussed before, where
and carrying capacity is reached which will be ignored as the time itself is undefined.

The second solution is:

0 ( 0 ) = 0 [28]

Finding the expression of from [30]:

0
ln( )
0
= [29]

The solution for Samarinda:

805,688
ln ( )
10,922,146 805,688
= = 76.627
0.03302
The solution for Surabaya:
2,821,900
ln ( )
4,964,556 2,821,900
= = 27.927
0.00986
The third solution is = 0.

This implies that at = 76.627 for Samarinda or at = 27.927 for Surabaya, and at = 0,
the value of divergence is 0, indicating no net change at those points and therefore the rate of
increase of the infrastructure budget right before that point is equal to the one right after that

10
 point. The zero divergence also implies the possibility of the shift in the value of divergence
from either positive to negative or vice versa.

The nature of the vector field could be deduced from [27]. The value of is always positive
for any value of , and we know that > 0 > 0, therefore the expression (( 0 ) +
3
0 ) will always be positive for any value of . The nature of the expression of (0
( 0 ) ) for > and < for both Samarinda and Surabaya will be found
out by using test point. There are actually other alternatives to determine the nature of the point
such as by using Hessian Matrix, but I use test point because I find it comfortable in
using it, and all of those methods should produce the same outcome.

In Samarinda,

If = 0, then
(0 ( 0 ) ) = 0.03302 (805,688 (10,922,146 805,688) 0.033020 )
= 307,441.6

If = 100, then
(0 ( 0 ) ) = 0.03302 (805,688 (10,922,146 805,688) 0.03302100 )
= 14,307.78

In Surabaya,

If = 30, then
(0 ( 0 ) ) = 0.00986 (2,821,900 (4,964,556 2,821,900) 0.0098630 )
= 574.45305

If = 0, then
(0 ( 0 ) ) = 0.00986 (2,821,900 (4,964,556 2,821,900) 0.009860 )
= 6,697.345

It has been found out that for < the expression of (0 ( 0 ) ) will be
positive for both cities. In addition, for > the expression of (0 ( 0 ) )
will be negative for both cities.

Positive divergence implies that the vector out of a point is greater than the vector into that point,
or negative net change, and vice versa. In another meaning, this also implies that as time passes
before , the rate of increase in infrastructure budget is also increasing. However, after
, the largest change in infrastructure budget will decrease. This further implies that
is when the rate of change of infrastructure budget will be at its largest value.

Furthermore, in real life, someones wage should be greater than zero or > 0, therefore for the
value of 0 will not be taken into account and will be ignored.

11
A vector field showing where one should move to obtain greatest increase in infrastructure
budget based on [21] is plotted for both Samarinda and Surabaya for comparison.
Samarinda Surabaya

Fig 3. The vector field showing the increase rate of infrastructure budget in Samarinda and Surabaya where
represents variable time (in years) and represents variable wage (in 100,000 IDR) using Math Rules11

Discussion, Conclusion and Evaluation

After this exploration, the research question How does the infrastructure of Samarinda compare
to Surabaya as time goes on and when is the greatest change in the infrastructure? can now be
answered. Based on the model used in this paper, there are several actions could be taken by
government to increase the infrastructure budget, but there will be one step that will yield the
greatest increase in the budget, displayed in Fig 3. In Fig 3, the vector arrows for Samarinda
between the direction in x axis and y axis is more balanced than in Surabaya. Vector field in
Surabaya encourages the increase in y axis or the wage more than the time because the rate of
population increase is slowing down since carrying capacity is almost reached. The greatest rate
of increase in the budget is predicted to be in around year 2089-2090 for Samarinda and in
around year 1985-1986 for Surabaya. Those years also indicate the greatest rate of population
increase. Based on Fig 2, Samarindas budget will be greater than Surabayas as time passes due
to the population difference, which is caused by the difference in the carrying capacity, which is
further caused by the difference in area where Samarinda has much larger area than Surabaya.

However, a more realistic carrying capacity is influenced by several factors such as food supply
or presence of diseases. A more realistic model is suggested to take account of those factors.
Another factor making this model not realistic enough is because the whole population is
assumed to have the same wage. In real life, the wage between each person will vary, and some
people do not work and have no wage while these were not considered in this paper because of
insufficient data. Those need to be considered for the improvement. A mathematic algorithm
such as Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) can be used to optimize the infrastructure budget.
11
Math.sduhsd.net,. (2005). Vector Field 2D. Retrieved 26 January 2016, from
http://math.sduhsd.net:8080/webMathematica/webMathFiles/VectorField2D.jsp

12
References

Anonymous. (2016). INFOSTAT Informasi Statistik [Statistics Information]. Jakarta: Badan

Pusat Statistik Provinsi DKI Jakarta

Dawkins, P. Calculus III Partial Derivatives. Tutorial.math.lamar.edu. Retrieved 24 January

2016, from http://tutorial.math.lamar.edu/Classes/CalcIII/PartialDerivatives.aspx

Khan, S. Divergence 3. Khan Academy. Retrieved 24 January 2016, from

https://www.khanacademy.org/math/multivariable-calculus/multivariable-
derivatives/divergence/v/divergence-3

Khan, S. Gradient 1. Khan Academy. Retrieved 24 January 2016, from

https://www.khanacademy.org/math/multivariable-calculus/multivariable-
derivatives/gradient-and-directional-derivatives/v/gradient-1

Livephysics.com,. Online 3-D Function Grapher. Retrieved 23 January 2016, from

http://www.livephysics.com/tools/mathematical-tools/online-3-d-function-grapher/

Math.duke.edu,. Population Growth Models. Retrieved 23 January 2016, from

https://www.math.duke.edu/education/postcalc/growth/growth2.html

Math.sduhsd.net,. (2005). Vector Field 2D. Retrieved 26 January 2016, from

http://math.sduhsd.net:8080/webMathematica/webMathFiles/VectorField2D.jsp

Sugianto, S. (2015). Statistik Daerah Kota Samarinda 2015 [Samarinda Statistics 2015].
Samarinda: Badan Pusat Statistik Kota Samarinda.

Sunaryo,. (2015). Statistik Daerah Kota Surabaya 2015 [Surabaya Statistics 2015]. Surabaya:
Badan Pusat Statistik Kota Surabaya.

Vandermeer, J. (2010). How Populations Grow: The Exponential and Logistic Equations. Nature
Education Knowledge, 3(10), 15.

Venkatraman, D. FooPlot Online graphing calculator and function plotter. Fooplot.com.

Retrieved 23 January 2016, from http://fooplot.com/

13