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Lloyds TSB JUL 02 Industry Sector Weekly
Lloyds TSB JUL 02 Industry Sector Weekly
Hann-Ju Ho
Industry Sector Weekly Senior Sector Economist | Economic Research
Telephone: +44 (0)207 158 1745 (7441 1745)
Carl Paraskevas
Recap and the week ahead Sector Economist | Economic Research
Telephone: +44 (0)207 158 2473 (7441 2473)
Chart a: European stocks fell for a second week Weak data and higher equity risk premiums
Equities fell sharply in the past week, as weak economic
5 Day % -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0
data – including the Chinese and US manufacturing PMI
Health care surveys – increased downside risks for global growth.
Food & bev.
Spain’s AAA rating was also placed on review for a
Oil & gas
Technology
possible downgrade by Moody’s. On the plus side, the
Telecoms ECB revealed that it lent eurozone banks €131.9bn in its 3-
Stoxx 600 month tender, somewhat less than markets had anticipated.
Banks
Financial serv. As we will argue on the next page, uncertainty regarding
Construction & mat. the economic outlook has pushed equity risk premiums
Travel & leisure
higher than during the height of the financial crisis.
Basic resources
Equities in the coming months, therefore, could be driven
Source: Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets Economic Research, Bloomberg. As at 9 am (Fri ) London
more by changes to risk premia than by earnings surprises.
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5-9 July
Sector Time Company Release EPS Estimate
Mon
Travel & Leisure 07:00 British Airways PLC June 2010 Sales and Revenue Release - Traffic Statistics
Travel & Leisure Ryanair Holdings PLC June 2010 Sales and Revenue Release - Traffic Stats
Tue
Oil & Gas Producers Tullow Oil PLC Q2 2010 Sales and Revenue Release - Trading Statement
Home Construction Persimmon PLC Q2 2010 Sales and Revenue Release - Trading Update
Construction & Materials Balfour Beatty PLC Q2 2010 Sales and Revenue Release - Interim Management Statement
Wed
Financial Services 07:00 3i Group PLC Q1 2011 Sales and Revenue Release - Interim Management Statement
Travel & Leisure 07:00 Air France-KLM June 2010 Sales and Revenue Release - Traffic Report
Travel & Leisure 07:30 Sodexo Q3 2010 Sales and Revenue Call
Construction & Materials 08:00 CRH PLC Q2 2010 Sales and Revenue Call - Trading Update
Support Services 09:00 Carillion PLC Interim 2010 Sales and Revenue Call
Construction & Materials Marks & Spencer Group PLC Q1 2011 Sales and Revenue Release - Interim Management Statement
General Retailers Tullow Oil PLC Q2 2010 Sales and Revenue Call - Trading Update
Oil & Gas Producers 07:00 3i Group PLC Q1 2011 Sales and Revenue Release - Interim Management Statement
Thu
Travel & Leisure 04:00 Sodexo Q3 2010 Earnings Release
Support Services 07:00 Hays PLC Q4 2010 Sales and Revenue Release - Trading Statement
Financial Services 07:00 Man Group PLC Q1 2010 Sales and Revenue Release - Interim Management Statement
Food Producers Associated British Foods PLC Q3 2010 Sales and Revenue Release - Interim Management Statement
Fri
Support Services 07:00 Michael Page International PLC Q2 2010 Sales and Revenue Release - Trading Update
Banks 07:00 DnB NOR ASA Q2 2010 Earnings Release 1.689
Travel & Leisure Deutsche Lufthansa AG June 2010 Sales and Revenue Release - Traffic Statistics
Source: Lloyds Corporate Markets Economic Research, Bloomberg
3
4
Mon
UK 09:30 PMI Services - June This survey continues to signal robust activity in the private service sector, but growth in new business seems to be moderating.
EC 09:30 Sentix Investor Confidence - July The Sentix survey rose unexpectedly last month, but concerns about the global growth outlook means that another fall cannot be ruled out.
EC 10:00 Euro-Zone Retail Sales - May Euro-zone retail sales are likely to remain sluggish, as the recovery in consumer confidence through 2009 has ran out of steam this year.
Tue
New car registrations rose 13.5%y/y in May, but end of the car scrappage scheme and headwinds for the consumer mean that the coming
UK - New Car Registrations - June
months are expected to be challenging.
The US economic recovery is broadening out to the service sector, as the improvement in the labour market continues. However, the European
US 15:00 ISM Non-Manf. Composite - June
sovereign debt crisis has dampened global growth prospects.
Wed
UK 00:01 BRC June Shop Price Index Overall shop price inflation is expected to remain moderate, thus retailers are likely to focus on increasing market share and reducing costs.
German factory orders will be given a further boost by the weakening of the euro in recent weeks, though the global growth outlook is also
GE 10:00 Factory Orders - May
important and is a downside risk.
Thu
UK 09:30 Industrial Production - May Survey evidence from the PMI suggests that manufacturing activity remained strong in May, helped by the impact of previous falls in the pound.
The German manufacturing sector is more geared towards the higher value-added capital goods sector than its UK counterpart. The weaker
GE 11:00 Industrial Production - May
euro should support the sector.
US 15:30 ICSC Chain Store Sales - June Gradual improvements in the labour market should support chain store sales, though there was a sharp fall in consumer confidence last week.
Fri 18
UK 09:30 Visible Trade Balance - May Volume of exports in basic materials have risen sharply in the past quarter by 25%, with rises also in consumer goods and chemicals.
UK 09:30 PPI – June Manufacturers’ costs have risen due to higher global commodity prices and a weaker pound.
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