MASALAH DAN PENGELOLAAN

RESIKO SEBAGAI KOMPONEN

DAN MODEL DALAM SISTEM
PERTANIAN BERKELANJUTAN

Oleh
Hari Kaskoyo

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OUTLINE
Resiko sebagai Faktor Inherent dalam Bidang
Pertanian-Kehutanan
Sumber-sumber Resiko di Bidang Pertanian-Kehutanan
Perhitungan Resiko secara Statistik
Pengelolaan Resiko dalam Bidang Pertanian-
Kehutanan

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RESIKO SEBAGAI FAKTOR INHERENT
DALAM BIDANG PERTANIAN-KEHUTANAN
Risk, Uncertainty, and Vulnerability
A common definition of risk is likelihood by consequence
(Standards Australia 2004).
Risk has been defined as the expected loss due to a
particular hazard for a given area and reference period.
Risk is a quantity derived both from the probability that a
particular hazard will occur and the magnitude of the
consequence of the undesirable effects of that hazard. The
term risk is often used informally to mean the probability of
a hazard occurring.

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RESIKO SEBAGAI FAKTOR INHERENT
DALAM BIDANG PERTANIAN-KEHUTANAN
Uncertainty concerning outcomes that involve
some adversity or loss that negatively affects
individual well-being is normally associated with
the idea of risk.

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RESIKO SEBAGAI FAKTOR INHERENT
DALAM BIDANG PERTANIAN-KEHUTANAN
Knight (1921) membedakan resiko (Risk) dg ketidakpastian
(Uncertainty).
Risk : implies knowledge of numerical, objective
probability.
Uncertainty : implies uncertain and the probabilities are
not known.
Perbedaan ini kurang operasional krn probabilities sangat
jarang yg dpt diketahui dan ada banyak anggapan ttg
probabilities sbg keyakinan yg subjective (Just 2001;
Moschini and Hennessy 2001).

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RESIKO SEBAGAI FAKTOR INHERENT
DALAM BIDANG PERTANIAN-KEHUTANAN
Hardaker et al (2004) membedakan resiko (Risk) dg
ketidakpastian (Uncertainty). Risk as exposure to
uncertain unfavourable economic consequences.
Uncertainty as imperfect knowledge.
Dlm prakteknya sering keduanya dipakai bergantian.

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RESIKO SEBAGAI FAKTOR INHERENT
DALAM BIDANG PERTANIAN-KEHUTANAN
A significant part of the literature on risk management is
associated with social protection against poverty,
particularly in developing countries (Dercon, 2005 and
World Bank, 2000).
In this context the term vulnerability is often used to define
the likelihood that a risk will result in a significant decline in
well-being, that is, resilience or lack of resilience against a
given adversity. Vulnerability does not depend only on the
characteristics of the risk, but also on the households asset
endowment and availability of insurance mechanisms.

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SUMBER-SUMBER RESIKO DI BIDANG
PERTANIAN-KEHUTANAN
Newbery and Stiglilt (1981):
Resiko sistematik
Resiko non sistematik.

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SUMBER-SUMBER RESIKO DI BIDANG
PERTANIAN-KEHUTANAN
OECD (2000) :
Resiko yg biasa dihadapi dlm seluruh bisnis (situasi
keluarga, kesehatan, kecelakaan personal, resiko
makroekonomi, etc)
Resiko yg mempengaruhi pertanian dan secara khusus
mempengaruhi produksi (kondisi cuaca, hama, penyakit,
perubahan teknologi), ekologi (produksi tanaman,
perubahan iklim, manajemen sumberdaya alam misalnya
air), pasar (variasi harga input dan output, hubungan antara
rantai makanan dg kualitas, keselamatan, produk baru, etc),
regulatory or institutional risk (kebijakan pertanian,
keamanan makanan, dan peraturan lingkungan).

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SUMBER-SUMBER RESIKO DI BIDANG
PERTANIAN-KEHUTANAN
Huirne et al (2000) and Hardaker et al (2004) :
Resiko Bisnis (production, market, institutional, and
personal)
Resiko Finansial (depend on financial method).

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SUMBER-SUMBER RESIKO DI BIDANG
PERTANIAN-KEHUTANAN
Baquet et al (1997) and Musser and Patrick (2001) :
Resiko Produksi (variations in crop yields and in livestock
production due to weather conditions, diseases and pests),
Resiko Pemasaran (the variations in commodity prices and
quantities that can be marketed),
Resiko Finansial (the ability to pay bills when due, to have money
to continue farming and to avoid bankruptcy),
Resiko legal dan lingkungan (lawsuits initiated by other
businesses or individuals and changes in government regulation
related to environment and farming practices),
Resiko Sumberdaya Manusia (the possibility that family or
employees will not be available to provide labour or
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management),
SUMBER-SUMBER RESIKO DI BIDANG
PERTANIAN-KEHUTANAN
Moschini and Henessy (2001) :
ketidakpastian produksi,
ketidakpastian harga,
ketidakpastian teknologi,
ketidakpastian kebijakan.

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SUMBER-SUMBER RESIKO DI BIDANG
PERTANIAN-KEHUTANAN
The World Bank (2000) and Holzmann and Jorgensen
(2001) classify risks in six different types:
natural,
health,
social,
economic,
political
environmental.

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SUMBER-SUMBER RESIKO DI BIDANG
PERTANIAN-KEHUTANAN
They also cross this typology with an additional
dimension of systemic characteristics of different risks:
Micro or idiosyncratic risk that affects the individual,
Meso-risk affecting a whole community, and
Macro or systemic risk affecting a whole region or
country.

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SUMBER-SUMBER RESIKO DI BIDANG
PERTANIAN-KEHUTANAN
All the risks they mention affect farmers in some
way, particularly natural (rainfall, landslides, floods,
droughts...), health (animal and plant) and
environmental risks.
Furthermore, most of these risks eventually take the
form of economic risk that affects the stream of
income, consumption and wealth.

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SUMBER-SUMBER RESIKO DI BIDANG
PERTANIAN-KEHUTANAN

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PERHITUNGAN RESIKO SECARA
STATISTIK
1. Menggunakan Probabilitas
Classical Probability P(E) = m/N
Kemunginan (P) bahwa suatu kejadian (E) akan
terjadi, di mana m adlh frekuensi terjadinya E dan N
adlh frekuensi akan terjadinya E
Probabilitas gabungan : P (A+B)
Probabilitas terkondisi : P (A/B)

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PERHITUNGAN RESIKO SECARA
STATISTIK
Hasil tes diagnostik standar dan diagnostik
eksperimental terhadap serangan hama pada pohon
kopi diketahui sbb:
Penyakit + Penyakit - Total
Hasil tes + 7 4 11
Hasil tes - 3 86 89
Total 10 90 100

Probabilitas: yg hasil tesnya + dari seluruh sampel? Yg

dinyatakan bebas penyakit? Yg dinyatakan sakit dari
mereka yg hasil tesnya +?
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PERHITUNGAN RESIKO SECARA
STATISTIK
2. Distribusi Probabilitas
Distribusi Binomial
Distribusi Poisson
Distribusi Probabilitas Kontinyu
Distribusi Normal

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PERHITUNGAN RESIKO SECARA
STATISTIK
3. Pohon keputusan :
Diketahui kemungkinan ada gas sebesar 60%

S1: Tidak ada S2: Ada gas di

gas di tanahnya tanahnya
D1: Menerima 60 660
tawaran
perusahaan energi
D2: Mengeksplorasi -100 2000
dan
mengembangkan
sendiri 21
PERHITUNGAN RESIKO SECARA
STATISTIK
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3. Pohon keputusan :
E

420 660
C
F

1160
-100
B
G
1160

D 2000

H
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PERHITUNGAN RESIKO SECARA
STATISTIK
4. Teori pengambilan keputusan :
Pesimis
Kesebelasan Tim Penilai 1 Tim Penilai 2 Tim Penilai 3 Minimaks
Jerman 707 389 227 227
Inggris 100 181 679 100
Spanyol 509 819 389 389

Optimis
Kesebelasan Tim Penilai 1 Tim Penilai 2 Tim Penilai 3 Minimaks
Jerman 707 389 227 707
Inggris 100 181 679 679
Spanyol 509 819 389 819 23
PERHITUNGAN RESIKO SECARA
STATISTIK
4. Teori pengambilan keputusan :
Minimaks regreat
Kesebelasan Tim penilai 1 Tim penilai 2 Tim penilai 3
Jerman 707 389 227
Inggris 100 181 679
Spanyol 509 819 389

Tabel regreat
Kesebelasan Tim penilai 1 Tim penilai 2 Tim penilai 3
Jerman 0 430 452
Inggris 607 638 0
Spanyol 198 0 290 24
PERHITUNGAN RESIKO SECARA
STATISTIK
4. Teori pengambilan keputusan :
Huwrich dg alpha 0,7
Kesebelasan Tim penilai 1 Tim penilai 2 Tim penilai 3 VW
Jerman 707 389 227 563
Inggris 100 181 679 505,3
Spanyol 509 819 389 690

Rasional/Laplace
Kesebelasan Tim penilai 1 Tim penilai 2 Tim penilai 3 Rata-rata
Jerman 707 389 227 441
Inggris 100 181 679 320
Spanyol 509 819 389 572,33
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PERHITUNGAN RESIKO SECARA
STATISTIK
5. Dengan menggunakan regresi:
Model sederhana utk mendeskripsikan perkembangan
populasi oleh Burgman et al (1993),

Nt = jml populasi pd waktu t

b = tingkat kelahiran
d = tingkat kematian
r = tingkat pertumbuhan

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PENGELOLAAN RESIKO DALAM BIDANG
PERTANIAN-KEHUTANAN

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PENGELOLAAN RESIKO DALAM BIDANG
PERTANIAN-KEHUTANAN
Avoidance
Reduction
Assumption/retention
Transfer

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PENGELOLAAN RESIKO DALAM BIDANG
PERTANIAN-KEHUTANAN
Holzmann and Jogersen (2001) :
Prevention strategies to reduce the probability of an
adverse event occurring, and focus on income
smoothing.
Mitigation strategies to reduce the potential impact of an
adverse event, and focus on income smoothing.
Coping strategies to relieve the impact of the risky event
once it has occurred, and focus on consumption
smoothing.

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PENGELOLAAN RESIKO DALAM BIDANG
PERTANIAN-KEHUTANAN

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