Piotr Dniestrzaski

(Wrocaw)

LOGISTIC FUNCTION AND ARCUS TANGENT

Abstract. The paper presents some deliberations on approximation methods used in describing cer-
tain phenomena on the basis of logistic function. An attempt is made at answering the question
whether any new values can be obtained when those phenomena are described by a different type of
mathematical function based on y = arc tan x.
Key words: approximation methods, arctan function, logistic function.

1. Introduction
The family of logistic functions, i.e. the class of functions represented by
a
L x , (1)
1  be  cx
where x > 0; a, b, c > 0, is a well-established instrument in the analysis of many
naturally occurring phenomena. Pioneering application of this function goes back
to the 19th century, when logistic equation was used in modeling population growth
of organisms (P.F. Verhulst, R. Pearl). Since then, it has steadily developed to cov-
er new fields of research. Logistic function is particularly entrenched and firmly
established in some analyses of economic phenomena (demand trends following
the introduction of a new product on the market), in demographic studies (i.e. the
field of origin), and numerous medical research studies. It is also a basis for one of
the most popular models of linear regression logistic regression with its mo-
dified form of logit regression.

2. Merits and flaws of the logistic function

Which features (special properties) make the logistic function a model of
choice for the above applications? First of all, the variability graph and data set of
the function make it particularly well-suited for the aforementioned areas of re-
search. Three features are especially important here:
1. Function values are contained within a finite range.
68 Piotr Dniestrzaski

2. The function is strictly increasing.

3. The functions graph models the S-curve of growth.

0.9 funkcja logistyczna

dla a = b = c = 1
0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0
5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5

x
e
Fig. 1. Logistic function L  x 
1 e
x

All three properties represented by a single function this is the source of vast
popularity of logistic function in the aforementioned fields of scientific research.
Another trait that explains frequent use of this function particularly in the field of
economics is its differential origin, as logistic function represents a solution for
a simple differential equation with a large potential for interpretation:
dy  x 
ay  x  N  y ( x )  y 0 a0 . (2)
dx
Let N in equation (2) represent the quantity of a given set of consumer goods. If
x is time and y(x) is the quantity of the goods consumed, then the equation (2) can
easily be interpreted as follows: the speed of the goods outflow is directly propor-
tionate to both the quantity of the goods and the size of its resources still available
for consumption.
It can easily be verified that the solution to equation (2) is represented by
a family of logistic functions (the logistic function (1) is in fact a whole class of
functions correlated to 3 parameters). Interpretation of the logistic function as a
solution of a differential equation (2) substantiates its use in analysis of certain
economic phenomena and, more widely, as a viable research instrument as such. In
 Logistic function and arcus tangent 69

economic studies, the function is often employed to describe sales magnitude of

a new product on the market. The characteristic shape of the L(x) graph is particu-
larly well-suited to describe first three phases of product sale trend. This applies,
above all, to demand for fixed commodities.
The use of logistic function in modeling is, however, burdened with certain li-
mitations. First of all, it disallows the use of the popular least squares method (for
cases when a full statistical model is needed, with potential control over deviation
of prognostic values obtained). As a result, most of the known methods for estima-
tion of parameters in models based on logistic function display a certain margin of
simplification.

3. The arcus tangent function

One of alternative functions showing a similar variability graph to the logistic
function is the function (Fig. 2)
A  x  arctg(x).

1.5

0.5

0.5

1.5
5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5

Fig. 2. Graph of function f(x) = arctg(x)

Similarly to the logistic function, the above function is strictly increasing in the
whole range of its values, and the value set is contained within a finite range. Other
similarities will be presented and discussed further on. Based on arcus tangent
70 Piotr Dniestrzaski

function, let us construct a class of functions related to three parameters (as in the
case of the logistic function). Let the resulting class be represented by A(x):
S
A x a arctg  cx  b   , (3)
2
where a, b, c > 0.
Table 1 presents selected characteristics of logistic function and the A(x) func-
tion, henceforth referred to as the arlogistic function. Depending on context, the
symbol A(x) will refer to the whole family of functions (3), or to the base function
y = arctg(x)
to avoid ambiguity of the disquisition.
One of the conditions for potential viability of arcus tangent function as an ap-
proximation instrument is the presence of other properties that may prove signifi-
cant in modeling. One of such properties that distinguish arlogistic function from
the logistic one is the limes behavior. While both functions display horizontal
asymptote, their derivatives show disparate behavior in the presence of large inde-
pendent variable values. One can easily verify that for any set of parameters, both
logistic and arlogistic functions satisfy the following:
Ac  x 
lim f.
xof Lc  x 
Table 1. Selected properties of logistic and arlogistic functions
Property Logistic function Arlogistic function
a S
Lx A x a arctg  cx  b  
1  be
 cx
2
 cx
abce
Lc  x 
ac
First Ac  x 
1  be   cx 1   cx  b 
2 2
derivative

abc e  be  1
2  cx  cx
 ac
2

Second derivative Lcc  x  Acc  x  2  cx  b 

1  be  cx  1   cx  b 2
3 2

ln b b
Inflection point x x
c c
 cx c 1
bce Sx A
Growth rate 1   cx  b  S
2
Sx L
1  be
 cx arctg  cx  b  
2
dy  x 
ay  x  N  y ( x ) 
Differential
origin dx
Source: own elaboration.
 Logistic function and arcus tangent 71

0.9 L(x) = exp(x)/1+exp(x)

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4 A(x) = (1/ )(arctg( x)+( /2))

0.3

0.2

0.1
0
5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5

1 S
x
e
Fig. 3. Graphs of L  x  and A  x  arctg( x )  functions
1 e S 2
x

As a result, the functions display disparate behavior at the asymptotic range.

This relation, burdened with seemingly similar variability range, may strongly in-
fluence models constructed for actual approximation purposes. Figure 3 shows L(x)
and A(x) functions using exemplary parameter sets, pre-selected to contain both
sets of values in the range (0, 1).
The maximum difference of both functions values on Fig. 3 equals ca. 0.0601.

4. Arcus tangent in demographic forecasts

The arcus tangent function has already been used in some studies as alternative
to the logistic function, but differed slightly from the one postulated in this paper.
Results of these applications were also varied.
S. Smolik (1996) used the function

f x a arctg  be cx  (4)

as the basis for a model describing global population growth in the years 1950-
-1985. Using least squares method, the author estimated function parameters and
arrived at a regression function of the following form:
f  x  1900 arctg  0,127e 0,02 x  . (5)
72 Piotr Dniestrzaski

Based on such a model, the author obtained prognostic values for global popu-
lation in the years 1986-1994 and ex post set the deviations of the resulting forecast
values.
W. Hyb and J. Kaleta (2004), using the same function (4), constructed the
model afresh, adopting an alternative method for parameter estimation. Parameters
were obtained numerically by minimizing median relative error (MRE) of past
predictions:

1 n y x  a arctg be
cx
 
MRE 100%
nx 0 yx
100%.

This method resulted not only in a different form of the modeling function:
f x 9500 arctg  0, 254e 0,002 t  , (6)

but also in different prediction results and limes of the population value. Functions
(5) and (6) have horizontal asymptotes of 26 845.1 million and 14 922 million,
respectively. W. Hyb and J. Kaleta (2004) compared the ex post errors of both
models for the period of 1986-2000. They were significantly lower for the function
(6). The largest error in this case was 2.37% and was associated with the year 2000.
The ex post error margin shows very good adjustment of the model with data, but
the optimistic mood towards the model is slightly alleviated by the fact that the
largest error was associated with the most recent study.

5. Significance of the arcus tangent function

in approximation problems

The arcus tangent function appeared in relation to modeling of economic phe-

nomena also indirectly. Let us consider a sequence of successive derivatives of
function y = arctg(x), i.e. the sequence of functions
d  arctg( x ) 
n

an  x  , n 1, 2, 3, ... (7)
dx n
W. Bukietyski and A. Smoluk (1968) have demonstrated that the sequence an
is a linearly-independent set in the realm of functions integrable with square on real
line (L2(R)), and presented the analytical form of such sequences function:

 1n  n  1!
n1
2
n x n (2 k 1) ,
an  x   1
k
2k  1
1  x 
n
2
k 0

where [y] is the integer part of y.

 Logistic function and arcus tangent 73

This author (P. Dniestrzaski (1999)) demonstrated that the sequence an com-
pletes system in space L2(R)). The system (7) was also used (after orthogonaliza-
tion) for approximation purposes (P. Dniestrzaski (2003)).

6. Conclusions
The arcus tangent function is undeniably useful for modeling applications. This
paper postulates the use of arcus tangent function as an alternative for the logistic
function, widely used for smoothing of time series. To obtain a more informed
view on its potential use, several principal questions must be answered.
1. Is there an example of such economic phenomenon (describable with the use
of a time series) that may naturally be approximated with the use of A(x) function
family?
2. Is there a substantiation (similar to that of the logistic function) for the use of
A(x) function in the form of differential equation that can easily be interpreted in
economic terms and offer A(x) functions as solution space? In other words, is there
a certain economic differential origin for the arcus tangent function?
3. Does the occurrence of L2(R) function in approximation context in two dis-
tinct roles (A(x) functions as an alternative to logistic function on the one hand, and
sequence of successive derivatives of arcus tangent function being a complete sys-
tem in space L2(R)) offer any significance for their actual employment? Do the two
characteristics of arcus tangent function occur independently of each other or is
there any element that links the two properties?
4. Do the A(x) functions offer real and viable alternative to the logistic func-
tion?
To help address some of the above questions, it may be useful to attempt test-
ing the following hypothesis.
Hypothesis. For a set system of logistic function parameters
a
L x
1  be  cx
there exists a sequence of parameters of arlogistic function A(x) that shows con-
vergence (by point or monotonic in a given range) with function L(x).

Literature
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P. Dniestrzaski (1999). Ukad zupeny a pomiar. Ekonomia Matematyczna 3. Wydawnictwo Aka-
demii Ekonomicznej. Wrocaw. Pp. 65-68.
74 Piotr Dniestrzaski

P. Dniestrzaski (2003). Aproksymacja ukadem rniczkowym. Dolnolski Biuletyn Gospodarczy

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