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1 Seeds 2 Seeds 3 Seeds 4 Seeds: Duke Virginia North Carolina
1 Seeds 2 Seeds 3 Seeds 4 Seeds: Duke Virginia North Carolina
None of the names changed, but Ive adjusted the order slightly to reflect
this weeks results. Most prominently, youll see that Duke has jumped on
line three due to its Wednesday win at Virginia. The Cavaliers fall to line
four as a result. Thanks to wins over North Carolina and Virginia in the
past eight days, you have to include the Blue Devils in any future
discussion of potential No. 1 seeds.
Keep an eye out on Florida, as the Gators will be without center John
Egbunu for the remainder of the season due to an ACL tear. Next week,
UF hosts South Carolina and visits Kentucky in a pair of games that
will help define the SEC race.
With the adjustments I made to seed lines three and four, the resulting
regional assignments for the 16 protected seeds produce a more balanced
bracket. In an ideal bracket, the overall seed numbers of the top four seeds
in each region would total 34. This projection sees the East and South
totals hit that number, with the Midwest at 33 and West at 35.
Top 16 by Region
5 seeds 6 seeds
Near Locks
7 seeds 8 seeds
With 24 teams set as locks, that leaves just 21 places up for grabs. Five of
those spots are nearly off the board as the teams in this group are inching
closer to safety. On Wednesday, Northwestern had a chance to all but
secure a first-ever NCAA bid, but the Wildcats were unable to follow up
Sundays big win at Wisconsin with one over Maryland back in Evanston.
Melo Trimble wouldnt stop scoring for the Terps, while Scottie Lindseys
continued absence hampered the Cats offense. Later that
night, Minnesota edged Indiana to pick up a fourth-straight win, a
result that also managed to further damage the Hoosiers prospects.
Bubble In
Only 16 spots are left for the true bubble teams. The group of eight teams
immediately above the cut line is a true mixed bag. Virginia Tech has
helped its case immensely in the past week by defeating Virginia in
Blacksburg and surviving Pitt on the road 48 hours later.
Dayton and VCU look like the only two Atlantic 10 at-large hopes, thanks
to Rhode Islands 10-point home loss to Fordham. Iowa
State meets TCU, a squad that sits in the next group, in Ames on
Saturday in yet another vital Big 12 bubble game.
Over in the Big Ten, Michigan State is higher than youd expect
because of a 4-5 record against the Top 50 and an 8-9 mark when extended
to the Top 100. Meanwhile, consecutive wins over the Spartans, Indiana,
and Wisconsin have brought Michigan back to the fold, ever closer to
safety.
Cut Line
Last Four Byes Last Four In First Four Out Next Four Out
The last four in are all teetering, however. Clemson jumps back in
following a Tuesday win at Wake Forest. While the Tigers are now 9-10
against the Top 100 with that quartet of victories against the Top 50, theyll
have to improve upon a 4-9 ACC mark to remain.
One of those victories came against a Tennessee team that falls out of
this projection after being blown out by Kentucky in a classic revenge game
at Rupp Arena. A 13-12 record in games against Division I foes with just a
single Top 50 win probably isnt going to do it.
Also Considered
Next 10 Out
77. Georgia
78. Texas Tech
79. Providence
80. Ohio State
Next 10 Out
81. Alabama
82. Utah
83. Nevada
84. Houston
85. Boise State
86. Richmond
11
seeds 12 seeds 13 seeds 14 seeds 15 seeds 16 seeds
46.
47. UT 63. Weber
Middle 51. Akron* 55. Vermont* 59. FGCU*
Arlington* State*
Tenn.*
48. Wichita 52. 60. UNC 64. N.C.
56. Belmont*
State* Monmouth* Asheville* Central*
53. 57. Cal St. 61. 65. Texas
49. UNCW*
Princeton* Bakersfield* Furman* Southern*
54.
50. 62. N.D. 66. New
Colorado 58. Bucknell*
Valparaiso* State* Orleans*
State*
67. Mount
St. Mary's*
68. UC
Davis*
Last night, Monmouth became the first team to guarantee itself at least
an NIT bid, as the Hawks (23-5, 15-2) clinched the top seed in the Metro
Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament with a 93-75 win over Niagara.
If only it had 2015-16 Monmouths at-large profile.
On that front, Wichita State, tied for the Missouri Valley lead
with Illinois State, might be the best hope for the 23 single-bid
conferences at this point. While the Shockers RPI ranking of 43rd isnt
great and neither is their 1-4 record against the Top 50, advanced metrics
still love them.
Gregg Marshalls team ranked 13th in KenPom and 16th in Sagarin at the
time of writing. If Selection Committee members bring up these metrics in
their discussions, like they did last season when both the Shockers
and Vanderbilt earned bids largely due to non-RPI measures, Wichita
State might just have a shot at sneaking in with a loss in the Arch Madness
final a week before Selection Sunday.
And that day will be here before you know it. The first conference
tournament action of the year takes place one week from Monday.