Developing of climate data for building simulation with future weather

conditions in a Danish context

Rasmus Madsen and Casper Thalund Hansen

Aarhus University, Department of Engineering, Denmark
Project 1 Research Methods in Civil and Architectural Engineering, masters degree program, fall 2015

ABSTRACT
Today, climate models are used frequently to describe past, current or future climate conditions in par-
ticular building simulation. A research study of how future climate change will affect the future indoor
environment and buildings energy use in a Danish context has been conducted. To fulfil this research
study, information of how climate models are developed are needed as well. The research study includes
an objective descriptive approach from both Danish and global research of the given topic. The gathered
information from the publications is evaluated with respect to indicators for the quality of the journals
as well as the authors. The method used for development of the Danish design reference year, is not
clear, and to have a full knowledge of how the climate change will affect building simulation in a Danish
context, further research is needed. This research for development of a new Danish weather file will
require both a descriptive and analytical research.

1 INTRODUCTION
In many ways, it is desired to could have an ac-
curate model for weather conditions and future
climate change. This could be for a shorter or a
longer period, and could be used for projection of
a buildings energy consumption over its lifetime
or the indoor environment under future climate
conditions. These climate models are used fre-
quently to describe past, current or future climate
conditions. This has led to the question: What
influence has weather data on building simula-
tion, and how can future climate change affect
building simulation performance in a Danish con-
text? To answer this research question a litera-
ture research has been conducted.
When doing research, there are different methods
and approaches there could be used. Depending
on the system of inquiry, a quantitative, qualita-
tive or mixed method approach should be used.
The quality of the executed research is depending
on that, the chosen research method is clear, and
that objectivity is high throughout the research
project. Inclusion of publications and work done
by other researchers is important to require new
knowledge and back up assumptions in the re-
search project. To evaluate the quality of these
publications, certain indicators can guide the re-
searcher to evaluate if the information gathered is
appropriate or not.

2 RESEARCH METODS

System of inquiry and research methods
When a researcher is making a research design,
the particular research design frame is made of
the researchers own assumptions of how the na-
ture affects the reality of the given topic, and how
to understand it. These assumptions is defined as
system of inquiry (Polkinghorne 1983) or as a
paradigm (Denzin, Lincoln 1998). Both of
them includes a complete picture or package of
large groups of research and represents the whole
process from the beginning to the end. When a
researcher is researching a new field, and estab-
lishing a new paradigm, prior understanding is to
be reconstructed. This process of generating new
understanding and establishing new paradigm is
difficult, time consuming and met with much re-
sistance (Kuhn 1962). In order to require a wide
field of information, input from qualitative, quan-
titative or mixed methods can be used.
Quantitative research is based on measure-
ment of quantity or amount (Kothari, ebrary
2004). This research method is often associated
with systematic empiric investigations or statis-
tic, mathematic or computational techniques.
When having phenomena there can be hard to ex-
press in terms of quantity, but is relating to qual-
ity or kind, qualitative research is concerned.
An example could be investigation of reasons for
human behaviour (why some people are moti-
vated to think or do things in a certain way and

Page 1 of 12
other people in another way), it are called Moti-
vation research there is a type of qualitative re-
search (Kothari, ebrary 2004). Quantitative and
qualitative research is however not as discrete as
they appear, and should be viewed as different
ends of a continuum (Newman, Benz 1998). A
study could be more qualitative than quantitative
or vice versa. If placed in the middle of this con-
tinuum, the approach mixed methods research
is concerned. Here, the main assumption is that a
combination of qualitative and quantitative ap-
proaches will provide a more complete under-
standing of the research problem, than either ap-
proach alone (Creswell 2014).
The researcher starts a project with certain as-
sumptions about what they will learn and how
they will learn it during their inquiry, and these
assumptions are called knowledge claims (Cre-
swell 2003). At the start of a project, the re
Figure 1 Knowledge claims, strategies of inquiry and methods leading to approaches and research design
(Creswell 2003, page 5)
Approaches to research
For the research inquiry to include a whole
worldview, large amount of raw data is required.
Zina OLeary (O'Leary 2010) has defined a
method to drilling the data in, and abstracting it
out. First, you start gathering in data with which
has a widespread information level, and hereafter
you organize it in relationships cross-sectional.
The organized data is melted down to make some
consensual meaning. Hereafter the process of ab-
Page 2 of 12
searcher should also determine the strategies of
inquiry. The researcher should determine which
investigations there are planned to be conducted
and how rigorous they should be. When having
the knowledge claim and strategy settled, the re-
searcher needs to determine specific methods for
data collection and analysis. This could be prede-
termined methods, emerging methods or both
which are applied for respectively quantitative,
qualitative and mixed method approaches (Cre-
swell 2003). Hereafter the concepts for the re-
search are settled and the approach can be chosen
and translated into a practice design process of
research. The design process contains of several
steps, where the researcher starts with listing up
the questions there are to be answered and ends
up with a validated analysis there answers these
questions. An illustration for this research pro-
cess is set up at Figure 1.
stracting out the reduced data starts. The re-
searcher goal is to create a meaningful under-
standing, and this starts with creating intercon-
nection across the dataset. The interconnection
across the dataset can be used to divide the da-
taset into different themes and new knowledge
and own explanations are applied to create a co-
herent meaningful understanding of the dataset
there initial was used. An illustration for this is
shown in Figure 2.
 bles. This is called descriptive research (Ko-
thari, ebrary 2004). If the researcher is doing an
analytical research, facts or information al-
ready available can be used to make a critical
evaluation of the material (Kothari, ebrary 2004).

Figure 2 Model for drilling data in and abstracting it
out (O'Leary 2010, page 263).
When a researcher is doing research, it can be re-
ported what has happened or what is happening,
and the researcher has no control over the varia-
Qualitative research
When doing qualitative research there are differ-
ent techniques that aims at discovering the mo-
tives and desires of humans (Kothari, ebrary
2004). These techniques can be used in gathering
information in a qualitative research. John W.
Creswell has developed a framework that identi-
fies four types of qualitative information: inter-
views, observations, audio visual information
and documents (Creswell 2014). Some of the
data sources for qualitative research are presented
in Table 1, were they are divided into wheatear
they are interactive or no interactive. An interac-
tive approach means if the researcher is in direct
contact with the given activity, or if the approach
is directly.

Table 1 The variety of data sources for qualitative research (Wang, Groat 2013, page 244)
Tactics Interactive No interactive
Interviews & Open- Face-to-face or phone in-depth interviews Online response to open ended questions
Ended Response For-
mats Focus groups

Task-oriented formats, e.g.: Prompted journaling

mapping exercise activity logs
multiple sorting task photo logs
projective surveys (games)
Observations Participants observation Nonparticipant observation
(research role concealed)

Artifacts and Sites
Archival Documents
Participant observation
(research role known)
In situ observation & analysis of arti- Photos, drawings or virtual representa-
facts/buildings/urban context/ landscape tions of artifacts and sites
sites
Public documents
Audio visual material
Artifactual or site documentation

Personal journals, diaries, letters,

sketches

Quantitative research Quantitative research can be subdivided into in-

Quantitative research is an approach for testing
objective theories by examining the relationship
among different elements (Creswell 2014). These
elements can be measured so that numbered data
can be analysed using statistical procedures.
ferential, experimental and simulation ap-
proaches (Kothari, ebrary 2004). An inferential
approach means to form a database to infer char-
acteristics or relationships of population. Here
survey could be an example where description of

Page 3 of 12
trends, views or opinions of a population is made
by studying a sample of that population. A survey
can be conducted using structured interviews or
questionnaires for which the intent of generaliz-
ing a sample to a population (Fowler 2009).
An experimental approach strides for determin-
ing, if a specific action influences an outcome or
result (Creswell 2014). This could be assessed by
providing a specific action or treatment to one
group and abstain it from another, and determine
how both groups score on an outcome.
A simulation approach constructs an artificial en-
vironment, ex a building or a room, where rele-
vant information or data can be generated (Ko-
thari, ebrary 2004). With a simulation, it is al-
lowed to observe a system, or its subsystem, in a
controlled environment. The simulation approach
can be useful in building models for understand-
ing and investigating future conditions. The sim-
ulation approach is useful where the experiments
would be to detailed, and has its advantages in a
period of a year can be simulated in a few minutes
or even seconds. In an economical perspective,
simulations can give a much cheaper answer to
the given task, than to build a physical model and
test over the given period.
Mixed methods research
Mixed methods involve combining or integrating
quantitative and qualitative research and data into
a study (Creswell 2014). When quantitative and
qualitative data are implemented into a research
database, it could be used to check the validity or
explain tendencies of the other.
A well-known combination of subjective and ob-
jective data is the comforts equation by P.O.
Fanger (1970). Here many experiments with the
subjective feeling of an indoor environment in
combination with the measured parameters is set
to give a general equation for thermal comfort
(Fanger 1970).

3 QUALITY OF A LITERATURE REVIEW

All types of scientific researchs purpose are to Table 2 How to read a paper (Hanson 2000)
make progress for each specific field of science. Preparation:
Scientific research is communicated through dif- Quiet place
ferent types of literature; such as papers, tech- Pencil, paper, photocopy of article
nical reports, books and conference proceedings. Deciding what to read:
The scientific literature can be split into two basis Read title, abstract
categories for primary and secondary literature. Read it, file it or skip?
Primary literature is publications of original re- Read for breadth:
What did they do?
search, and can be published in the listed types of
Skim introduction, headings, graphics,
literature including theses and dissertations. The definitions, conclusions and bibliog-
secondary literature publishes condense for the raphy.
already known knowledge, which could be pre- Consider the credibility
sented in textbooks, manuals, treatises and re- How useful is it?
views which collection of research for a specific Decide whether to go on
topics (Humboldt State University 2015). Find- Read in depth:
ing the right literature for a specific task can be a How did they do it?
time-consuming process, and the amount of liter- Challenge their arguments
ature for some topics could be overwhelming. To Examine assumptions
efficient reading of scientific papers, Hanson Examine methods
(Hanson 2000) has made a guide that includes Examine statics
five steps for how to read a paper. These five Examine reasoning and conclusion
steps are shown in Table 2. The most important How can I apply their approach to my
initial condition for reviewing scientific papers, work
is always why are you doing it? Strategies to re- Take notes:
view a scientific paper should be different, if it Make notes as you read
should be used for an overview, or it should be Highlight major points
used for challenging the method and arguments Note new terms and definitions
in the papers. Summarize tables and graphs
Write a summary

Page 4 of 12
Universities are doing the main part of research,
but also governments and NGOs are doing some.
Objectivity is key element of research, and the re-
search should be free from financial conflicts and
interest. Objectivity should protect the scientist
and university, and most important should the
public confidence and trust for taxes sponsor the
research (The University of Mississippi 2011).
The scientific papers are very important in order
to publish the actual science, and distribute the
knowledge in a global perspective. The journals
have a high impact because of the procedure with
peer review of independent experts. The major
journals with a high acknowledgement receive
more articles than they can publish. It is difficult
to get science published in these major journals,
but that can also be a quality check for the actual
scientific research quality.
There have been written overwhelming many sci-
entific papers over the years and every year dif-
ferent journals publish new papers. In 2006 an es-
timated 1.3 million papers were published in
23,750 journals (Lauri, Bjrk et al. 2009). Today
it is possible to generate a scientific paper with
yourself as author, reference and all general re-
quirements for layout for a scientific paper online
(Stribling, Krohn et al. 2005). Some homepages
are willing to publish the work for payment, and
often they do not have any review of the actual
work. In the search for papers in the critical re-
view study, there has been found a paper from a
publisher called Hindawi Publishing Corpora-
tion, which uses the Authors-pays model. This
paper contains method for generating typical
metrological year (Haixiang Zang, Qingshan Xu
et al. 2012). The method in the paper for creating
typical metrological year, are looking similar to
the methods described in other papers from more
recognised journals. Richard Poynder (2012)
comments on the business model for the Hindawi
Publishing Corporation, and finds some critique
that he thinks could have influence on the quality.
"More broadly, we have to conclude that, how-
ever ethical and effective a publisher Hindawi it-
self may be, the author-side gold OA model may
turn out to be a flawed model, since it can too
easily be exploited by disreputable (predatory)
publishers to the detriment of the global re-
search endeavor (Poynder 2012).
Page 5 of 12
Consistency for publishing the research at an
open access model will be that the scientific qual-
ity could be lowered and other researchers avoid
the knowledge because of the publication model
and publisher of the journal.
With the high yearly amount of published papers
and fluctuating quality of journals, some indica-
tors for the quality of journals and authors are
needed.
Impact metrics
Impact metrics are an indicator for the citations
of the journal. One of the most common metrics
is the Impact Factor, which measures the aver-
age citations per publication, and is published
every year by Thomson Reuters. A rule of thumb
for research in buildings states that in impact fac-
tor below 1 is low and above 3 is excellent. In
other areas, the conditions may be otherwise. An-
other common metric is the Source-Normalized
Impact per Paper (SNIP) that measures the cita-
tions relative to average for discipline (an SNIP
> 1 means journals are cited more than average
for the field). Every year Elsevier makes a list of
21,900 journals SNIP, IPP and SJR metrics (Else-
vier B.V. 2015). At each journals homepage it is
different if they provide an impact metric or not.
Thomson Reuters does also keep a list of the
worlds most important and influential journals
(Testa 2012). This is a way to have a database of
qualified and serious journals. Another list of this
kind is the Danish bibliometric list (Uddannelses-
og Forskningsministeriet 2015), there contains a
research indicator for journals.
Authors H-index
The h-index is a measure of how productive an
author is, and what citation impacts his publica-
tions has. The h-index indicates the authors most
cited papers and the number of citations they
have in other publications. The definition of the
h-index is that a scholar with an index of h has
published h papers, which has been cited in other
papers at least h times (McDonald 2005). An au-
thors h-index can be checked at Google Scholar,
there is a database on citations of publications.
For it to be possible to check an authors h-index
it is required for him to have a user profile, that
keeps track of published papers and citations.
The total number of papers does not account for
the quality of the scientific work, while the num-
ber of scientific citations is a more appropriate in-
dicator, where the h-index is intended to measure
the quality and quantity of scientific output.
There is however a number of situations where
the h-index may provide misleading information:
The citation level and behaviour are field-de-
pendent, which makes comparison across disci-
plines difficult. The h-index can be manipulated
through self-citations, or even computer-gener-
4 LITERATURE REVIEW
In Denmark, all simulations for buildings perfor-
mance must use the weather file Danish Design
Reference Year 2013 (BR10, 2014). The Danish
Meteorological Institute (DMI) collects data
from different weather stations in Denmark. DMI
has in collaboration with the Danish building re-
search institute developed and published the Dan-
ish Design Reference Year (DDRY) (Wang,
Scharling et al. 2013b). This development is re-
ported in several technical reports for DMI on the
establishment of a new reference year. In 2012,
there were published a new Design Reference
Year (DRY), which contains observations from
DMI's station network, where the parameters
global radiation, relative humidity, temperature
and wind speed was included (Wang, Scharling
et al. 2012). The new DRY were made for calcu-
lation in the solar energy sector, because of the
old DRY (1975-1990), no longer represented the
current climate conditions (Wang, Scharling et al.
2013a). In 2013 a DDRY weather file was pub-
lished, this was no longer only for the solar en-
ergy sector but also for national building permits.
All building permits from 2014 are required to
use the newest DDRY, which are hourly-based
Table 3 The twelve typical months from the period 2001-2010, used for DDRY (Wang, Scharling et al. 2013b, page 6)
Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Year 2009 2009 2006 2010 2006
In 2015, there is an investigation for the Danish
climate data impacts on energy performance for
solar collectors done by Janne Dragsted et al.
(Dragsted, Furbo et al. 2015). The investigation
have shown the difference for using the old Dan-
ish reference year from the number of years ex-
tending 1975-1990 and local weather data from
2002-2010. The investigation shows the im-
portance of using the newest weather data, but
also the difference for using local weather data
Page 6 of 12
ated publications. Google Scholar does not con-
tain all publications with their respective authors,
and therefore not all citations. If an authors h-in-
dex cannot be found, it can either mean that there
are no citations the authors work, or it is just not
registered.
In context to the critical literature review that is
done here, an exercise of making a review has
been done, and is submitted in Appendix A Ex-
ercise with reviews.
climate data (Wang, Scharling et al. 2013b). The
Technical rapport from Wang et al (Wang, Schar-
ling et al. 2013a) gave no indication of how and
why the data for the new DDRY were selected,
because of lack of references to relevant stand-
ards for how to statistic generate a design refer-
ence year. The DDRY is developed for different
months of the period 2001-2010. The typical
months for the DDRY is set up in Table 3, and no
clear consensus is seen between the choosing
months. The only expression for selection of the
exact months is this passage:
Each month has been selected with the climato-
logical premises in mind, that it should exhibit
typical climatological variation. This means no
extremes, yet some variation is indeed tolerated
(Wang, Scharling et al. 2013b).
One of the problems with making science without
any described method is to reproduce the refer-
ence year. The reference year is produced by
opinions from the authors, and that could be dif-
ferent if other has done the same work.
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2005 2009 2009 2009 2008 2010 2009
compared with a national weather data. The devi-
ation for using local weather data compared with
old reference year gave a 14 % higher energy pro-
duction in the solar collectors. The investigation
is missing to compare the new DDRY with the
local data from the same period 2002-2010. That
would have shown the differences between using
local weather data compared with the national
DDRY on building simulation.
It has not been possible to find any other pub-
lished paper for how climate change influences
building simulations or how the DDRY are com-
posed. In global perspective there are several re-
searches for the impact of climate change for
building simulation, and how different types of
climate data are composed with a scientific repro-
ducible method.
In Poland 2004, there was developed a typical
meteorological year (TMY) for the period 1971
to 2000. This are compared by Grudzi ska and
Jakrusik (Grudzi ska, Jakusik 2015) with more
actual climate data from 2001-2012. Results
shows that the energy consumption, simulated in
BSim for cooling, in a residential building was
Figure 3 illustration for how to get predicted future hourly weather data (Guan 2009, page 797)
One of the imposed offset method for projections
are called Morphing and are developed by
Belcher et al. (Belcher, Hacker et al. 2005).
Morphing combines observed weather with pro-
jected data for climate change as function of the
different scenarios of change; this could be emis-
sions for greenhouse gasses. The morphing pro-
cedure uses regional or global climate models to
calculate a monthly mean for the weather varia-
bles. The algorithm for the Morphing method
uses three operations; a shift, a linear stretch and
shift and a stretch. The new monthly mean are
distributed over a baseline climate which distri-
bution comes from previous years' data. How this
baseline will be in the future is there no consen-
sus of, it could be with a general higher mean
temperature or with more periods of heat wave.
(Belcher, Hacker et al. 2005).
Page 7 of 12
25.9% - 37.1% higher compared with the same
simulation with a TMY data set.
Guan (Guan 2009) described in 2008 different
methods for projections of future weather file.
Figure 3 illustrates how she had come up with
new hourly weather data, as prediction of future
weather variables. Different methods were dis-
cussed for the useful method for projection future
climate model. The methods were; present de-
gree-day, Imposed offset, stochastic weather
model and Global climate models. The different
methods strength and weakness were discussed,
and the conclusion states that the imposed offset
method should be the best method for integrating
weather forecasts in building simulation.
There is made an investigation with usage of the
morphing method for projection of the energy
consequence in Hong Kong by Chan (Chan
2011). Developing of climate data are done by us-
ing typical meteorological year (TMY) and sort
them with Finkelstein-Schafer statistical method
(Schafer 1971). This method are the most com-
mon for generating typical meteorological years
(Chan, Chow et al. 2006). With use of future
weather conditions, the energy consumption for
an office and dwelling are investigated with using
EnergyPlus. The energy consumption for air-con-
ditioning systems are increased up to 14.3% for
office buildings and 24% for dwellings in the pe-
riod 2020-2090 (Chan 2011). Due to the geo-
graphically size of China the climate conditions
are divided into different zones. These zones are
varying a lot from hot summer and warm winter
to severe cold, and have influence on the projec-
tion of future weather conditions. To create rep-
resentative TMY-years it is found that a 30-years
record gives stable temperatures. The selection of
climate data with the Finkelstein-Schafer method
can be with different weighted parameter as
shown in Table 4. The present study in the table,
Table 4 Weighting factors for Finkelstein-Schafer statistics (Yang, Wan et al. 2011, page 6123).
Index Sendia method TMY NSRDB TMY2
Temperature Max dry-bulb temp
Min dry-bulb temp
Mean dry-bulb temp
Humidity Max dew-point temp
Min dew-point temp
Mean dew-point temp
Wind Max wind speed
Mean wind speed
Solar radiation Global radiation
Direct radiation
For the national weather data in the United King-
dom (UK), there are several papers, which de-
scribe the method for creating design reference
year. In the UK, they have different weather files
to assess buildings performance compared to the
Danish method, and have made a lot of research
for projections of future weather data. A case
study by Jentsch, Bahaj et al. (Jentsch, Bahaj et
al. 2008) demonstrates the impact of climate
change with a naturally ventilated building. Pro-
jections of future climate are done with Morphing
method of the present day weather. The example
shows that the hot summer 2006 in England, even
was more critical than projections of future cli-
mate for a middle high emission scenario in 2050.
In 2009, the United Kingdom Climate Impact
Program 2009 (UKCIP09) came with projections
for the CO2 emission for different types of sce-
narios. These data are used for trying to estimate
future climate, and developing DRY for the dif-
ferent past couple of decades (Du, Underwood et
al. 2012). The weather generator UKCIP can
generate different weather data as functions of
different projections of the CO2 emission. For
simulation, there was some missing data for wind
speed, wind direction, cloud cover and solar radi-
ation that were developed later (Watkins, Lever-
Page 8 of 12
is a new ratio between the parameters used for
developing climate data, and are called a typical
principal component year (TPCY). Deviation be-
tween for the measured climate and the TPCY is
lower compared with the traditional TMY (Yang,
Wan et al. 2011).
Present Study
1/24 1/20 1/24
1/24 1/20 1/24
2/24 2/20 2/24
1/24 1/20 -
1/24 1/20 -
2/24 2/20 4/24
2/24 1/20 2/24
2/24 1/20 2/24
12/24 5/20 12/24
- 5/20 -
more et al. 2011). For calculating energy perfor-
mance and peak power, for cooling in the UK,
there is an average typical weather data and a de-
sign summer year (DSY) (Watkins, Levermore et
al. 2013). The paper by Watkin, Levermore et al.
(2013) discuss the limitation of use the DSY,
which is develop as an 87.5 % for the mean air
temperature for 20 consecutive years. The conse-
quence of using only the mean air temperature for
creating design reference years gave a one-sided
selection. Other parameters as relative humidity
and solar radiation could be important parameters
for choosing a better estimation for weather data.
There are made comparison with the actual DSY,
and with three different design reference years
(DRY) for temperature, humidity and total solar
irradiance. The DRY are developed by using the
weather generator UKCIP for a 5 km square at
the Manchester Ringway airport, with the high
emission scenario for the year 2080. The results
show that the temperature in an environment with
a high emission factor has the potential to have
more hot days for some of the summer months.
The potential for using DRY outcome from the
UKCIP weather data generator should provide
more similar weather data than the more static
DSY (Watkins, Levermore et al. 2013).
5 EVALUATION OF THE USED RESEARCH METHODS
Literature within the field of climate data, the de-
velopment of weather files, building simulation
and buildings energy consumptions dependency
on future weather conditions, contains a huge
amount of publications and in general very much
raw data. A literature review has been made, with
the intention of creating an inquiry there is as
widespread as possible. The literatures within
these topics are research done in different loca-
tions in the world (UK, Poland and China). The
information has been organized to see the inter-
connection between the used methods, and a con-
nection back to usage of this research in a Danish
context. Most of the reviewed literature has used
a quantitative approach to their research. How-
ever, it has been difficult to determine which
method that has been used for making the current
Figure 4 An overall diagrammatic of a research project (Wang, Groat 2002, page 48).
6 FUTURE RESEARCH
The literature review reviles that the DDRY was
publish with no argumentation for the scientific
selection of the climate data. The starting ques-
tion has focus on the future climate changes in-
fluence in building simulation. However, before
creating weather files for simulation of the poten-
tial future conditions it is needed to investigate
deeper into the current weather file for Denmark.
Page 9 of 12
DDRY. In order to could fully answer the listed
research questions, it would be necessary to con-
duct an analytical research study within some
subareas. This analytical research would include
simulations to retrieve data or facts there could be
presented as results to the audience. A sketched
model of this process is illustrated at Figure 4.
One could say that a large research study with a
widespread inquiry requires minor studies of dif-
ferent subareas to fulfil the inquiry. If there were
a lack of information in a subarea, the researcher
would have to conduct both a descriptive- and an
analytical research to fulfil the inquiry. When do-
ing state of the art research, this is the process
there is used, and if the research is good, it could
be used for another research and the knowledge
within the research field will be expanded.
To develop the next research design process, re-
search questions for this process has to be set up.
This questions concern the area of how climate
data are selected for building simulation:
How representative is the DDRY for the ac-
tual climate conditions, and what intensions
in selection of climate data were used?
 What is the difference between the climate
data in the DDRY and the climate data de-
veloped with a scientific method for selec-
tion like TMY or TMY2?
What influence has the priority of parame-
ters such as temperature, relative humidity,
wind speed, and solar radiation on the selec-
tion of climate data in a Danish context?
The new research questions are even more spe-
cific, because of the performed literature review.
To do the future research there is set up a chart in
Figure 5, for how to work with these new ques-
tions. To do a deeper study of the DDRY, it is
needed to find more literature, or contact the sci-
entist there has been a part of the development of
the DDRY. This extra knowledge is required for
getting a deeper understanding of the intention
behind the DDRY. To develop a new weather file
it is needed to collect historical weather data from
Figure 5 Design process of future investigation
7 CONCLUSION
It was not possible to get an answer of the begin-
ning research question throughout the conducted
literature review. The Danish research for devel-
oping weather files for future weather scenarios
has yet not begun or been published. The research
methods for developing climate data for Danish
weather conditions need a further investigation to
determine the scientific quality, as this is the ba-
sis for projection of the climate data. In a global
perspective there have been done some research
for developing weather files from historical data
like the TMY. Publications of researches from
China and UK have used the Finkelstein-Shafer
methods, for selection of historical climate data
Page 10 of 12
DMI. The method for development of a new
weather file, and the priority of these parameters
should be investigated. The new weather file
should be analyzed in building simulation with
respect to the current DDRY, and consequences
for energy consumption and indoor environment
should be stated. Evaluation of the results should
be compared with similar research from other sci-
entists. It will then be necessary to make a new
research for specific investigations of climate
datas importance for building simulation. Con-
clusion of the planned research will certainly give
new questions and the process could then be re-
peated or possible modifications could be imple-
mented for another research design. Such a new
research could then be with respect to the initial
research question, and a potential further work
could then be a projection of future climate con-
ditions.
to develop a new TMY. As an indicator for the
future weather conditions in the UK, the projec-
tion of the CO2 emission is used. To project the
future weather data for the different scenarios of
CO2 emission, the Morphing method is used. The
future research should focus on the development
of a weather file from a quantitative method, and
evaluated against the DDRY with statistics and
building simulation. To answer the new research
questions, an analytical research for expanding
the knowledge in Danish context are required. A
descriptive research from global publications for
quality assurance and validation of the scientific
methods are also required.
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