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153 Kraushaar PDF
153 Kraushaar PDF
153 Kraushaar PDF
APCOM 87. Proceedings of the Twentieth International Symposium on the Application of Computers and
Mathematics in the Mineral Ind ustries. Volume 1: Mining. Johannesburg, SAIMM, 1987. pp. 153 - 163.
Ruhrkohle in West Germany evaluates and compares the nel present values
of long-term periods from its coal mines by a computer assisted long-term
planning system. Two main parts of this system are computer programs for
the prediction of:
(a) mineable re...erves and their distributio n in lo ngwali panels as a function
of dependent geological variables;
(b) daily outputs and costs of longwall panels as a function of dependent geo-
logical, layout and operational variables.
This paper describes the investigations, which ended in the above computer
programs:
the collection of information from past workings and their organization
in databases;
the statistical evaluation of the data bases, and
the resulting correlation formulas,
The correlation formulas vary the mean dependent variables as a fun ction
of independent variables which can be indicated with high reHability for plan-
ning projects in the long run. The system thus serves the purpose of facilitating
long-term planni ng and excluding biased individual judgement of local plan-
ning staffs.
Inlroduction
As West Germany' s biggest l:081 company. RuhrkohleAG intervals simultaneously at all of the collieries. It com-
produced 58 III tons from 22 collieries in 1986. These are prises planning of:
concentrated in a 100 km long by 40 km wide zone, the (a) reserve consumption and panel cost;
so-called Ruhr district where coal has been mined for (b) production volumes, ROM properties and sate prices;
more than a hundred years . Ruhrkohle AG (RAG) was (c) development of the network of main stone drifts and
founded in 1970 to consolidate many smaller indepen- shafts, including heading and equipment cost;
dent mining companies to control output in the face of (d) development of transport and supply systems on the
th e shrinking coal ma rk et. The data in Figure I reflect surface and underground, including investment and
the structural changes in the company from its inceptio n o peratio nal cost.;
through (e) effects of mining activities on surface structures, in-
(a) the opening-up o f link-up mines; cluding expenditure for subsidence damages.
(b) the scaling-up of production capacities of small mines
by the inclusion of new reserve sect ions; Individual judgements of the local planning staff are
(c) the merging of neighbouring mines into bigger pro- excluded as far as possible by assessment standards which
du ction units; are based o n operational experience.
(d) closing down of existing mines. Establishing these standards is facilitated by databases
The individual pit decisions were prepared and sup- in which the geological propeTlies, layout geometry, tech-
ported by a long-term planning and assessment system nical equipment, organization, man-shifts, performance
which compares the potentials of all the mines in a long- and cosUworking unit over more than ten years are col-
run future. The term of reference used for comparison lected.
is the net present value. This paper deals with two recently revised sections o f
Long-term planning is carried out at three- to fi ve-year the long-term planning system, namely:
Identification
Geology Geometry and location
Depth below
sea level (m) Either Mine code no.
- UH RO ISTRICl
Depth below
surface (m) Panel length (m) Identification no.
\" DDR Dip (gon) Panel width (m) Seam code no.
Thickness Number of
IOIal (m) pan," Level
Thickness
coal (m) 0, Mine section
Ash content (CIfo) Geological
area (m~ Block no.
Sulphur con-
tent Geo!' reserves
,
Volatile mat
",,.
(011)
"
exploration state
}' CH ,, A (070) ~ 3 in 1000 tons
Ruhrkohle AG 1970 J986 These, are located in the areas close to present mining
from its lno;eption activities. Exploration states 2 and 3 correspond to a more
Production capacity or less dense network of surface exploration drillings: state
Million lonu a " 2 to at least I borebo le per kml and linear seismics at a
minimum of I km grid distance; state 3 to a borehole
Number o f mines
Output per mine
Million !ons/ a
"
'.6
22
2,7 distance between I and 2 km and appropriate distance of
seismic lines.
Personnel l84 108 Reserve tonnages are detennined by multiplication of
(in 1000) panel volumes with the yield of saleable tons per m;
which depends on ash and sulphur contents. For geolo-
PIGURB I. Ruhrkohle AG in West Germany gical areas of explora tion state 3 the coal volume is
equalized to the tonnage.
(a) forecasting of the mineable reserves and the geometry
of longwall panels in deep seams where exploration Technically mineable reserves Itnd realistic panel
by boreholes and seismic methods from the surface geometry
has been minimal; The geological reserves in the exploration states 2 and 3
(b) forecasting of daily outputs and cost of longwall are not wholly recoverable. Nor are the layout patterns
panels as a function o f geological, geometric and TABLE 2
technical! organizational, parameters. Definition of exploration states and their relevance for the
calculation of geological reserves
Forecasting of mineable reserves and panel
geometry Exp!.
Geological reserves state Exploration density Reserve calculations
The reserve database contains the available information
on geological a nd coal parameters, geometrical dimen- Proximity or mining ac. Panel layout,
tivities up to: M" coal x yield ,; !.On
sions and peculiarities of any geologic reserve element. 400 m inside the seam
Table I outlines the organization of such information. from exploration point;
For any reserve element already subdivided into long. 200 m below seams
wall panels on the seam maps, panel layout dimensions worked
are stored. P anel layout is according to the specified stan-
2 > 200 m below seams Panel layout;
dards for seam areas in an advanced exploration state. worked or in new takes.: M ' coal x yield = ton
For geological elements of low exploration density, area I borehole/ l kurl
dimensions are given without any subdivision into panels. I km distance of seismic
In Table 2 the exploration states are defined and the lines
rules of layout and reserve calculations explained. 3 1 borehole/4 km2 Panel layout
Exploration state no. 1 covers about one-third of the 2 km distance of seismic Ml coal = ton
geological reserves required for long-term extraction plan- lines
ning.
~o
t
\,
\
\
\
MINED
Layout After
Difference
planning exploitation
of panel structures in exploration state 2 more than par- what will be the expenditure for entries. and
t ially recoverable. how many rise headings and face preparation cycles
Figure 2 is an empirical example showing how far apart are involved.
planning and reality may be. The left side represents a
geological/tectonic unit during the phase of early plan- The roadway drivage per metre of extracted panel
ning consideration. The right side is the same unit after length is in reality much higher than in the early layout
mining. The planning area was allocated to exploration pattern on the left side.
slate 2 when the theoretical layout pattern was ploued The table below the drawings in Figure 2 repeats the
on the seam map. In reality, however, major faults were comparison numerically. The area finally extracted was
en~ountered which had not been recognized either by just half as large as the layout pattern. The number of
borehole exploration or by seismic methods from the sur- panels extracted was 14 against 12 as planned. Notwith-
face. Whilst the basic layout structure was maintained, standing such soot, area reduction almost the same road-
t he mined area finally was much smaller than envisaged way drivage length was necessary as stipulated in the plan.
in planning. Along the time axis of long-term planning the portion
Figure 2 proves the necessity of finding a method of of geological reserves in exploration state 1 declines
downward correction suitable for predicting the to-be- gradually from an initial 1001170, whilst more and more
mined area. Other important issues that are of relevance reserves in the poorer exploration states have to be taken
are; into mining consideration. By a realistic forecast of the
/' /'
/'/ 600 -----,
/'
L-~~~~~~____
2 3 4 5 6 23456
Basic area km'
Basic area km'
FIGURE 3. Size of the mined-out area as a function of signifi- FIGURE 4. Mean panel lcnglh as a function of signifkanl
cant dependent variables dependent variables
The requirement of entries, defined as entry length per is a cumulative panel length which has to be divided by
metre of panel length, is a function both of worked seam the average panel length, as shown in Figure 4, in order
thickness. panel area/basic area ratio and of depth (also to obtain the number of panels of identical mean dimen-
refer to the formula in Table 4). sions. The length of entries is computed by means of the
The additive elements in the formula stand for the in- formula in Table 4.
creasing difficulty of reusing entries for adjacent panels
at greater depths and, particularly, in thick seams. Prediction of panel output and costs
EDP conversion of the panel layout on reserve data The usual method of short-term planning, of transfer-
of exploration states 2 and 3 in consideration of the rela- ring actual operational and cost data from the more re-
tions found to exist between dependent and independent cent past to similar or fairly similar workings to be plan-
variables was done as follows. ned, is inadequate for long-term planning over thirty
years. Firstly, the task of data collection would be too
Exp%rations state 2: All laid-out panels of a common
great; then, reference areas do not exist for all of the plan-
basic area are added. If the total of panel surfaces is equal
ning areas; and, finally, the necessary unbiased approach
to or smaller than the calculated area to be mined, the
cannot be guaranteed. MathematicaVstatistical evalua-
panel layouts are entered as they are in the technically
tion of comprehensive databases on existing underground
recoverable reserves. If the total of panel surfaces is
areas, on the other hand, provides valid assessment stan-
greater than the calculated mining area, the lengths of
dards for any area in order to predi\:t relevant output
panels will be reduced accordingly before they are entered
volumes, shift expenditures and costs as a function of
in the recoverable reserves.
deposit conditions, technical layout conditions and orga-
Exploration state 3: The calculated mining area is divid- nization of mining operations.
ed by the assumed mean panel width of 250 m. The result The data collection of underground projecfs and its
TABLE 4 evaluation
Correlation between entry length and geological features Information on the geological characteristics, layouts and
technical equipment of all underground projects within
Ruhrkole AG is collected monthly along with data on out-
L = 17",4~THT",~ L, Entry length
put, shifts and costs. This underground project database
E' 1,8 2*MA per panel ( m )
length m is organized for easy access. It provides continuous perio-
+ 0-960 (if e!: 0) THT = Thickness dic information on mining results to any management
lOO total (m) level and was evaluated in order to develop the forecasting
+ (THT-l 8) '" 0-800 "'0 05 BA Basic method.
, 100 ' area (kml) The evaluation concept is influenced by the envisaged
MA Mined type of planning calculation for panel costs, by the data
if e!: 0 if e!: 0 area (kml) volume and by the availability of these data for long-term
0 Depth below
surface (m) panels.
In order not to deviate too much from the present state
@ Lo ngwall operation
FIGURe S. Composition of panel costs by co~t items for lo ngwall face and entries
of technology and organization such evaluation should For statistical evaluation only those geological and
not go too far back into the past. Management decided geometrical variables are admitted as independent which
on three years. Prior to evaluation the costs from different can be predicted for long-term planning. These are the
periods were converted to a common cost base. Since the geological data and figures of ROM properties taken from
data coliection under review covers three years, whereas the deposit database (according to Table 1) and the layout
the lifetime of a panel from its development start through (panel length, panel width and length of entry) calculated
to the withdrawal of equipment after exploitation some- for each panel according (0 Figu res 3 and 4 and Table 4.
times exceeds three years, it is the separate examination In the long run only certain variations in technical
of subsectors which provides the sufficiently large data- equipment on faces ~a n be forecasted. Shield support is
base. standard equipment Plough winning is standard up to
For this reason the panel costs (OM per saleable ton) 1,6 m total thickness beyond which shear.er-Ioaders are
in a model calculation have to be composed of the in- used. Another distinction is made between caving and
dividual costs of the panel elements and the phases iden- pneumatic stowing. The two possible mining directions
tified in more detail, as in Figure S. are advance or retreat mining. Retreat mining is defined
Labour and material costs are calculated separately. as the drivage ofthe whole entry length prior to starting
For calculation of labour costs, productivity per man-shift the coal face. Table 5 shows for the separate panel areas
is taken as the target parameter or dependent variable, defined in Figure 5 the target or dependent variables and
allowing the determination of shift requirements for a the independent variables involved.
whole subsector. Next the shifrs are multiplied by [he shift Variance analysis was used as a preparatory step for
index in terms of OM/ shift. The material cost larget regression analysis in order to find clues fo r an appro-
parameters ace dimensioned so as to allow easy calcula- priate regression approach. It gives answers (0 the follow-
tion by means of other well-defined planning figures. To ing essential questions:
determine the production potential the target parameter Have the assumed independent variables any impact
is the exposed surface in ml/d. The total production on the target or dependent variables?
from one longwall face is derived by its multiplication How does such impact develop?
with the coal thickness in m and the yield in saleable tons Are there interactions between independent variables
per m3 . on the dependent variables?
Plough/retreat
o Shearer-loader/retreat
15()()
Plough/advance
o Shearer-loader/advance
"
5()()
~~~-L~~~~~~~~~-L~~~~~~~~~-L~~~L _
0.1-1.0 1.0-1.4 1.4-1.8 1.8-2.2 2.2-2.6 2.6-3.0 3.0-3.4 3.4-3 .6
Seam thickness in m
FIGURE 6. Interaction of pairs of dependent variables on surface exposure target in variance analysis
Step formation
Modified
combinations
and categories
o f dependent
variables
Variance
analysis
no no
Plausibility
of influence
yes Corrected
approach
Regression
analysis
Relevance and no
plausibility of
result (?)
yes
Integration of formulas
in the model
I
+ 0,()()4 (min/ d)
1.2
I.. ------
~
5.42
1.192 1.0
/'
I + 57.'
panellenglh
0.9
/ panel length
'.66
Cilving
(1 + c .o. Slowing) 1.0
c = -0,12
roof handling stowing
0.8
- --
(ml/d) plough/retreat
FIGURE 8. Regression formula.
Operational
area accord-
ing to Dependent Independent
Figure 5 variables Dim variables Dim
panel length ceases to be of any influence on the target average RAG experience and, secondly, on the experience
variable beyond a certain limit; of the colliery to which the panel belongs. Also listed are
surface exposure is lower in the very high volatile and the productivity and costs of the total panel and its sec-
very low volatile coal range than in steam and gas tions.
coals. The volatile matter index apparently disguises In the panel matrix the mine planner has an assessment
the varying hardness of coal in this context. instrument to hand which enables him easily to select those
The degree of determination of the formulas obtained panels which should be mined in a long-term schedule
is sometimes modest even in terms of mining forecasts. under economic constraints. Most of the data necessary
Management nevertheless integrated them all into a cal- are taken from the reserve database. It costs the planner
culation model and tested this model against many sf,/J only a few routine inputs to obtain the printouts. The
active and also completely extracted panels. headquarters office can be certain that the evaluated long-
The planning engineers of the collieries involved were term production schedule of any mine is balanced to
mostly very satisfied with the calculated mean expecta- others in terms of cost and correct project density by
tions. This encouraging acceptance led to introduction applying the described straightforward work-saving stan-
of the panel assessment into long-term planning in 1985. dardized method.
References
Panel matrix 1. STEINBAUER, W. Entscheidungsvorbereitung unter
The end of each evaluation run is formed by the so-called Nutzung van EDV- und Or-Hilfen, dargestellt am Vor-
panel matrix which is printed out for any planning pro- gehen bei der Kapazitatsplanung RAG. In: Schriften
ject (example given in Figure 9). The most important jar Operations Research und Datenverarbeitung im
geological data, as well as the results of reserve down cor- Bergbau. Essen, G1ii.ckaufVerlag, 1978. pp. 103-124.
rection as a function of the size of a geological area, are 2. ZEPPENFELD, R. Bin Vorschlag fUr die bergman-
produced in the head of the matrix. The data to be addi- nische Planung im Steinkohlenbergbau unter Beriick-
tionally entered by the planner are also represented here: sichtigung der Nutzung betrieblicher Oaten. Disser-
type of stowing, type of face machine and direction of tation, Technische Hochschule Aachen, 1978.
mining and travelling time for the crew from the shaft 3. GRIESENBROCK, H.P. Modellansaatze fUr die
io their working places. The lower block contains the ex- mathematisch statistiche Auswertung van Betriebs-
pected output in t/d for varying operational times cor- daten bei der Einschatzung van Strebbetrieben. Disser-
responding to one to four coal-wiIming shifts based on tation, UniversWi.t Clausthal, 1982.
I-:::::------f~~--i~~~~g~j~~~:-------~:~::-~---ll~~---i---ll~~---+I---ii~~---rl---ll~~---i---ll~~---il---ii~~---i---il~~---i---ll~~---I
I 044 DRIVE COST DM/T I 7.3 I 7.3 7.3 7.3 I 7.3 7.3 I 7.3 I 7.3 I
I OPERATION 045 CREW EXCL. DRI VE MS/D I 30 I 40 1 46 51 I 29 40 I (,7 51
046 COST EXCL. DRI VE DM/! I 8.1 I 7.2 6.8 I 6.4 I 9.3 I 8.3 I 7.7 7.4