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Prognostic Indicators of Low Back Pain in Primary Care: Five-Year Prospective Study
Prognostic Indicators of Low Back Pain in Primary Care: Five-Year Prospective Study
Abstract: Back pain is common and many people experience long-term problems, yet little is known about
what prognostic factors predict long-term outcomes. This studys objective was to determine which factors
predict short- and long-term outcomes in primary care consulters with low back pain (LBP). Analysis was carried
out on 488 patients who had consulted their physician about LBP. Patients were followed up at 6 months and 5
years. Clinically significant LBP at follow-up was defined as a score of 2, 3, or 4 on the Chronic Pain Grade,
indicating substantial pain and disability. Cox regression was used to estimate relative risks (RRs) with 95%
confidence intervals (CIs) on 32 potential predictive factors, organized into domains (demographic, physical,
psychological, and occupational). Baseline pain intensity conferred a 12% increase in risk (RR = 1.12, 95% CI =
1.031.20), and patients belief that their LBP would persist conferred a 4% increase in risk (RR = 1.04, 95% CI
= 1.011.07) for poor outcome at 6 months. Outcome at 5 years was best predicted by a model with the same
factors as in the 6-month model: pain intensity increased risk by 9% (RR = 1.09, 95% CI = .9971.20), and a
belief that their LBP would persist increased risk by 6% (RR = 1.06, 95% CI = 1.031.09). Both predictors have
the potential to be targets for clinical intervention.
Perspective: Few studies have investigated factors that predict long-term back pain. This study has shown
that pain intensity experienced during a period of primary care consultation, and patients perception about
whether their back pain will persist, were significant predictors of poor outcome at 6 months and at 5 years.
T
Americ 24
perceived by the patient,
he prevalence of low back pain (LBP) is substantial, an psychological factors such
with population estimates of 50 to 70% over a life- 23
Pain as depression and anxiety
time.21,30 Up to half the people with LBP seek
Societ and pain-specific concepts
health care for their pain.21 Evidence highlights that many such as fear avoidance,
people with LBP do not have single episodes y catastrophizing, and illness
but often experience long-term pain with significanthttp://d
15,17,21,31
perceptions,4,10,12 and
recurrence and fluctuations. This results in x.doi.o occupational factors such
25 8,12
considerable costs for health care and society. rg/10.1 as employment status.
One important area of focus within LBP research is the 016/j.j Importantly, these factors
identification of key prognostic factors.15 There is a diversepain.2 can characterize groups of
range of prognostic factors in relation to LBP: demographics 013.03 people at higher risk of
18 persistent pain and
such as educational status, age, and gender, physical.013
disability,
factors such as the level of pain
and they highlight potentially m
to target in clinical interventions
cal therapies and
Received September 22, 2012; Revised January 15, 2013; Accepted March 5,
2013. occupational
15,24
This work was supported by Arthritis Research UK [13413], the Wellcome interventions).
Trust [083572], and NIHR Primary Care Career Scientist Award to Professor However, most prognostic
Nadine Foster [CSA 04/03].
The authors have no conflicts of interest. studies of LBP have
Address reprint requests to Paul Campbell, PhD, Arthritis Research UK Pri- considered follow-up
mary Care Centre, Primary Care Sciences, Keele University, Keele, Staf- periods of 1 year or less
fordshire ST5 5BG, United Kingdom. E-mail: p.campbell@keele.ac.uk 17,24
(see reviews ). For
1526-5900/$36.00
example, of the 32 studies on back or attending private group pas-sive coping, and
spinal pain included in a review by Mallen and colleagues, 24osteopathic practices. They catastrophizing were
only 3 had follow-up periods longer than tested factors that were significant at 1 year, but
1 year. This is problematic, as potential prognostic factors associated with disability at depression and pain
could differ depending on the time scale.4,6,15 For 1 year and at 4 years and intensity were significant
4
example, one study (Burton et al ) followed up patientsreport that fear avoidance,
873
874 The Journal of Pain Long-Term Prognosis in Back Pain
and feedback to ensure high levels of recording of
at 4 years. They suggested that initial fear avoidance, 33
catastrophizing, and passive coping possibly give way to relevant Read codes during patient healthcare visits.
depression in the long term. However, another recent The target cohort consisted of 1,591 adults who had
visited their primary care physician for LBP in the study
study12 considered differences in prognostic factors
practices and who responded to the initial baseline
between primary care patients with acute/subacute pain
questionnaire mailed to them within 2 weeks of their index
(defined as pain duration of less than 3 months prior to
visit. We have previously shown that this cohort is broadly
baseline assessment) and those with chronic pain
representative of all patients attending primary care for
(defined as pain duration of more than 3 months prior to
baseline assessment) at baseline. They reported no dif- LBP in these practices10 and that the registered
ferences in prognostic factors between these groups in populations are broadly representative of a UK population
the prediction of disability 12 months later. This clearly generally. Of the 1,591 back pain patients recruited at
shows that further study is required to understand the baseline, 810 completed and returned their 6-month
potential for differences in prognostic markers depen-dent follow-up questionnaire and 488 responded at 5 years
on time. Indeed possible differences in prognostic factors (70% of those eligible). This cohort of 488 responders at 5
over time may be a reason why current interven-tions for years formed the basis for the analyses presented in this
LBP show low sustainability of treatment effect over the paper (see flow dia-gram Fig 1).
1
long term. We need to better characterize fac-tors that
independently predict short- and long-term outcome of
patients with LBP in order to inform and test treatments Measures
that target different prognostic groups.
Outcome Measure
The aim of this study is to investigate, in patients with
LBP consulting in a primary care setting, which prognostic Pain and disability related to LBP were measured at 6
fac-tors predict poor pain and disability outcomes 5 years months and at 5 years using the Chronic Pain Grade
later and to compare these with predictors of earlier short-
term outcomes at 6-month follow-up in the same cohort.
soon after their healthcare visit Baselin (
(baseline) and again 6 months e n
and 5 years later. The population responde
Methods for this analysis were responders rs (n = =
to the baseline questionnaire (N 1591)
Design and Setting = 1591) who gave consent to 1
further contact and who re- 2
Participantsin Eligible and 5
alargeprospectivecohort sponded again at 6 months (n =
gave 4
studyofpersons visiting their 810) and 5 years (n = 488).
permission to )
primary care physician about further contact
LBP were mailed questionnaires
within the Northrepresentative of Respo year follow
Ethical approval nd up (n = 696)
Staffordshire andthe local popu-
was given by North ed
Cheshire area oflation. At baseline, at
Staffordshire and
England wereeligible 6
North West mo
invited to takeparticipants were
Cheshire Research nth
Ethics Committees part.10 Primaryidentified via
s
care practices are computerized (n =
for all phases of
the study. the gateway to theprimary care 810)
healthcare systemrecords using the
within the UnitedRead Code
Recruitment Kingdom. Thesystem, which is
and practices cover athe standard
range of method of coding
Procedure
deprivation areas,and recording
Patients, aged and given thatreasons for
between 18 and 60 more than 95% of contact in UK
years, who visited the UK populationgeneral practice.
their primary care is registered with aAll codes relating
physician about primary careto LBP were used Mailed
LBP at 8 primary 2 to identify potential questionn
practice, they are
care practices aire at 5
participants, with specificred flag (caud equin R spond
codes fordiagnoses a a e ed at
5 y a up Fig 1. Flow recru
e r (n = ure diagram of itmen
t.
Campbell et al The Journal of Pain 875
(CPG).
41,42
The CPG is a 7-item measure of chronic pain Psychological Predictors
for assessing the patient using 2 dimensions: pain severity The Illness Perception QuestionnaireRevised (IPQ-R)
(pain at present time and worst and average pain over the 26
was used to assess illness perceptions. The IPQ-R has
previous 6 months) and disability (pain interference, social
12 subscales, 8 for illness perceptions (illness identity,
and employment activity restriction due to pain over the
consequences, timelineacute to chronic, timeline
previous 6 months). The measure categorizes outcome of
cyclical, illness coherence, treatment control, personal
chronic pain and disability into 5 grades: Grade 0 (pain
control, emotional representations) and 4 on the causes of
free), Grade 1 (low disability, low pain intensity), Grade 2
LBP (accident/chance, psychological, risk factors,
(low disability, high pain in-tensity), Grade 3 (high
immunity). Higher scores on each subscale of the IPQ-R
disability, pain that is moderately limiting), and Grade 4
indicate stronger illness perceptions, with some inter-
(high disability, pain that is highly limiting). The CPG has
37 subscale items being reverse scored.
established validity in the UK population and as a
9
Fear of movement was measured by the Tampa Scale for
measure of pain over time. For the purpose of this study, 20
Kinesiophobia (TSK). The TSK contains 17 items about a
CPG scores were collapsed to form 2 groups, with Grades persons fear of movement because of pain, with higher
0 and 1 forming a group with no or low levels of pain or scores indicating a higher level of movement avoidance.
disability and Grades 2, 3, and 4 forming a clinically
The Coping Strategies Questionnaire 24 (CSQ-24) was
significant LBP group, following previous
11,41 used to assess coping styles in participants. 14 Four scales
methodology, with the latter being defined as a poor
are used in the questionnaire (catastrophizing, diversion,
outcome. reinterpretation, cognitive-coping), with higher scores
indicating a higher frequency of use of the coping style.
Demographic Predictors In addition, the baseline questionnaire contained 12
Participants were grouped into 1 of 4 age categories items on behavioral coping in relation to the patients pain
#37, 38 to 45, 46 to 52, and $53 yearsbecause of the (use of over-the-counter medicine, lying down, creams or
sprays, hot and cold packs, massage, lumbarsup-port,
nonlinear relationship of age and LBP18; gender was used
walking, swimming, general practitioner-prescribed
as a dichotomized variable. Educational status was
medication, walking stick, bed rest, exercise). Using
categorized into 2 groups, education up to the age of 16
guidance from Brown and Nicassios active and passive
and educated beyond the age of 16, and social class was 3
29
dichotomized into higher (managerial, professional, in- coping model, exploratory factor analysis was performed
termediate, self-employed) and lower (supervisory, tech- on these items. Analysis revealed suitability of these items
to factor analysis, and a 2-factor active and passive
nical, routine occupations), as used previously.12
coping construct was created.43
The Pain Self-Efficacy Questionnaire (PSEQ) was used
Physical Predictors at Baseline to measure participants beliefs and confidence in their
LBP disability was assessed using the 24-item Roland ability to accomplish activities and engage in situations
35
Morris Disability Questionnaire (RMDQ). The RMDQ (eg, doing household chores, being active, getting
asks questions on the level of disability associated with enjoyment out of things, and leading a normal life) despite
LBP on the day of questioning and gives a score from 0 to their level of pain.27 The measure consists of 10 items,
24 (a higher score indicates a higher level of disability). each scored by a 6-point Likert-type scale, with a higher
Pain intensity was measured by calculating the mean of score indicating greater self-efficacy.
3 numerical rating scales (010) for the participants least The Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) was
and usual LBP over the previous 2 weeks, and their rating 44
used to measure depressive and anxiety symptoms. The
of current pain intensity at the time of filling in the
6 measure consists of 14 questions and produces a scale from
questionnaire. A higher score indicates a higher level of 0 to 21 for depression and anxiety separately, and is
reported pain intensity. applicable to general population samples.
Symptom duration has been shown to be an important
prognostic marker for poor outcome.7 Pain duration at Occupational Predictors
baseline was measured by asking participants to recall
Four groups were created on the basis of the reports of
when they had their last pain-free month. Two groups
the respondents current work status: 1) currently em-
were created: 1) pain duration less than 3 years prior to
ployed in normal job, 2) currently employed on reduced
baseline and 2) pain duration more than 3 years prior to
duties because of LBP, 3) currently unemployed because
baseline. This choice of timeline (duration of 3 years) was
of LBP, and 4) currently unemployed because of other
based on a recent prognostic study that included the
reasons.
influence of prior to baseline indication of pain duration (ie,
how long patient had pain before entering the study) as a
risk factor. They reported no differences in outcome (in Statistical Analysis
their case recovery) using the usual 3 months acute- Univariate regression was performed on all predictors in
chronic distinction; however, they did report differences on relation to poor outcome at 6 month and at 5 years. Cox
outcome using the above- or below-3-year category.5 regression, with a constant time variable,40 was used to
The presence of leg pain and distal pain (eg, above, determine an unadjusted regression coefficient (relative
below knee) and of upper body pain (shoulder, arm, neck, risk [RR]) for each predictor.22 All predictors with P values
or head) was also recorded.5,7 < .1 at this stage were retained for
876 The Journal of Pain Long-Term Prognosis in Back Pain
Table 2. CoxRegression Models for the Relationship Between Prognostic Indicators at Baseline
and Clinically Significant LBP Group at 6-Month and 5-Year Follow-Up Stages
UNADJUSTED RR (95% CI) DOMAIN ADJUSTMENT RR (95% CI) FINAL MODEL RR (95% CI)
*P #.05.
**P #.001.
baseline perception by the
patient that his or her pain
but only pain intensity and disability remained after mutual
will last a long time (IPQR
adjustment for the intercorrelation between all the other
timeline acute-chronic
variables within the pain domain model.
variable) and lower pain
self-efficacy (confidence in
Psychological Domain his or her ability to get on
with life despite the pain)
Most of the variables within the psychological domain
independently predicted
predicted clinically significant LBP status at 6 months and at
clinically significant LBP at
5 years. However, following adjustment in the psychological
6 months and at 5 years. A
multivariable model, only a stronger
further 2 variables were
predictive of the 5-year outcome but not the 6-month back pain problem (IPQR and higher passive coping.
outcome: lower levels of emotional representations of ones emotional representa-tions)
878 The Journal of Pain settings in respect to patient beliefs about the longevity of
their LBP.10,16 This study is the first to
Occupational Domain
The occupational variable consisted of a single ques-
tion, so no statistical adjustment was required. The model
showed that compared to those in employment, persons
on reduced duties because of their back problem at
baseline, those who were unemployed, and those who
were unemployed because of LBP were all at an
increased risk of clinically significant LBP at 6 months and
at 5 years.
Discussion
In a representative sample of UK primary care patients
with LBP followed up for 5 years, elevated pain intensity
around the time of the index healthcare visit and patients
perception that their back problems will last a long time
were significant predictors of poor outcome in both the
short and long term.
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882 The Journal of Pain Long-Term Prognosis in Back Pain
sponders were significantly younger (43.3 vs 47.4). Non-
Appendix 1 responders scored lower on the CSQ diversion score,
higher on the IPQR illness coherence score and higher on
Prognostic Indicators of Low Back Pain in the IPQR accident chance score. There were no other
Primary Care: 5-Year Prospective Study differences between responders and nonresponders.
Distributional checks and comparisons between those
Missing data analysis showed the measure of social
traced and not traced and between responders and nonre-
class status to have missing data above 5% (actual
sponders for the follow-up periods of 6 months and 5 years.
10.7%): data were more likely to be missing for those who
Distributional checks were carried out on continuous were older in age, reported higher pain intensity and
indicator variables to determine which showed non-normal disability, greater depression, anxiety, catastroph-izing,
distributions, indicating nonparametric testing for response and fear avoidance and lower self-efficacy. Because of the
and nonresponse and traced/nontraced groupings; chi- significant differences for this missing group on these key
square testing was carried out for all cat-egorical indicator variables and the risk of bias if completely removed from
variables. For differences between those who were traced the analysis, it was decided to create a missing category
(n = 698) and those not traced (n = 112) at the 5-year 1
group within the social class variable.
follow-up, analysis revealed a sig-nificant difference in age
between those who were traced and those not traced.
Those who were not traced were significantly younger in Reference
age (41.4 vs 46.3). There were no other significant
differences found between traced and nontraced patients.
1. Sterne JA, White IR, Carlin JB, Spratt M, Royston P,
Kenward MG, Wood AM, Carpenter JR: Multiple imputation
Comparing responders (n = 488) with nonresponders (n for missing data in epidemiological and clinical research:
= 210) showed significant differences on age; nonre- Potential and pitfalls. BMJ 338:b2393, 2009
Appendix Table 1b. Test of Baseline Characteristics for Responders and Nonresponders
RESPONDERS (N = 488) NONRESPONDERS (N = 210)
*Significant difference.