Bayes Theorem Worksheet

1. J.B. Crackpot Potts has invented a new lie-detector machine and is testing it. One
hundred test subjects are told to lie, and the machine catches 80 of them in the lie.
Another hundred test subjects are told to tell the truth, but the machine nevertheless
thinks that 5 of them are lying.

(a) Draw the tree diagram corresponding to this situation.

(b) Suppose a test subject is chosen at random from the 200, and the machine claims
that he lied. What is the probability that he did in fact lie?

(c) Suppose a test subject is chosen at random from the 200, and the machine claims
that he told the truth. What is the probability that he did in fact tell the truth?

(d) Lets say the local police department begins to use the machine in interrogations,
and suppose on average 15% of people arrested lie in their interrogations. When
the machine indicates a lie, what is the probability that the suspect is really lying?
If the machine does not indicate a lie, what is the probability that the suspect is
really telling the truth?

(e) Rework problem 1d, now assuming that only 3% of those arrested do lie.

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2. After college you start a business in Fargo and hire only graduates of local schools:
60% from Concordia, 20% from NDSU, and 20% from MSUM. Suppose (for the sake
of argument) that 80% of Concordia grads are honest, 50% of NDSU grads are honest,
and 60% of MSUM grads are honest. After two years you discover that someone has
been embezzling funds. What is the probability that

(a) a Cobber is to blame?

(b) a Bison?
(c) a Dragon?