HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

31 January, 2017

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 VIEW POINT
STRATEGY FOR THE DAY Rupee Closes at One Month High on
Rupee exited from seven days consolidation and headed higher
JPYINR FEB. FUT. : against US dollar in expectation of good budget. Yesterday, the
Indian rupee on closed at a one month high against the US dollar,
BUY AT CMP 59.48 SL 59.25 TGT 59.85 after foreign institutional investors continued to buy in local equity
markets. This was the fourth consecutive sessions when the rupee
MAJOR CURRENCY closed stronger. The home currency closed at 67.95 a dollar--a level
last seen on 30 December 2016, up 0.13% from Friday's close of
Prev. 68.04.
Close Chg. % Chg. The one month forward USDINR NDF last quoted at 68.01 from
Close
yesterdays 68.18 indicating weaker start of the pair at domestic
USDINR 67.948 68.036 -0.089 -0.13%
bourses.
DXY INDX 100.330 100.63 -0.300 -0.30% Technically, spot USDINR is having support at 67.71 and resistance
EURUSD 1.070 1.067 0.003 0.31% around 68.39. The near term bias for the pair remains bearish with
GBPUSD 1.251 1.252 -0.001 -0.06% view of sell on bounce until it closes above 68.40.
USDJPY 113.560 114.71 -1.150 -1.00%
DG USDINR 68.050 68.152 -0.102 -0.15% Yen Gains After BoJ Hold Policy Unchanged and Safe Haven
Demand
GLOBAL INDICES The Bank of Japan kept stimulus unchanged and left its inflation
forecasts largely untouched as it waits to see the impacts of a
recent decline in the yen and the policies of Donald Trumps
Prev. administration.
Close Chg. % Chg.
Close The weaker yen and higher oil prices helps Japans core inflation
SGX NIFTY 8628.5 8654.0 -26 -0.29% index has bottomed out and is rising to near zero.
NIFTY 8632.8 8641.3 -9 -0.10% The BOJ kept its policy rate on some bank reserves at -0.1% and
SENSEX 27849.6 27882.5 -33 -0.12% reiterated its pledge to keep the yield on the 10-year Japanese
HANG-SENG 23360.8 23374.2 -13 -0.06% government bond at around 0%.
The currency traded at 113.56 versus the dollar, having weakened
NIKKEI 19110.9 19368.9 -258 -1.33%
about 8% since the last time the BOJ released its forecasts on Nov.
SHANGHAI 3159.2 3149.6 10 0.31% 1, with much of that drop coming since the election of Trump.
S&P INDEX 2280.9 2294.7 -14 -0.60% Kuroda will hold a briefing later today, where attention will turn to
DOW JONES 19971.1 20093.8 -123 -0.61% hints about future policy, his views on currency moves, and the
NASDAQ 5613.7 5660.8 -47 -0.83% outlook for the economy as the new U.S. administration starts to
FTSE implement policy.
7118.5 7184.5 -66 -0.92%
The near term outlook for the yen remains positive against dollar
CAC 4784.6 4840.0 -55 -1.14%
amid Trump administrator will make dollar cheaper.
DAX 11681.9 11814.3 -132 -1.12%

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

SPOT USDINR DAILY CHART

Technical Observations

USDINR close below short term moving averages indicating near term weaker trend.
Momentum oscillators RSI given negative divergence suggesting weakness in the pair.
The pair could head lower towards 67.70, the previous bottom, and face resistance at 68.39.
The short term bias turn neutral to bearish with downside support at 67.715 and 67.3250 until it surpass 68.3875.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS

Contracts Last Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 View For The Day

USDINR FEB17 68.17 68.21 67.97 68.06 68.12 68.27 68.36 68.42 Short Buildup
EURINR FEB17 72.94 73.14 72.07 72.50 72.72 73.36 73.79 74.01 Short Buildup
GBPINR FEB17 85.47 85.61 84.67 85.03 85.25 85.83 86.20 86.42 Short Buildup
JPYINR FEB17 59.48 59.57 58.95 59.18 59.33 59.72 59.95 60.10 Short Covering

Wkly Wkly 1-Mth. 1-Mth. 52 Wk 52 Wk

Spot 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA
High Low High Low High Low
USDINR 68.23 68.02 68.39 67.72 68.86 66.07 68.08 68.12 68.08 67.44 67.22
EURINR 73.35 72.67 73.35 70.42 77.49 70.42 72.98 72.27 72.06 73.06 74.14
GBPINR 86.27 84.49 86.27 81.78 100.49 80.89 85.34 83.93 84.46 84.25 88.22
JPYINR 60.49 59.10 60.49 57.45 68.11 55.73 59.61 59.20 59.11 61.76 62.86

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Abs Open Chg. in Chg. in
Currency Open High Low Close Volume
Chg. Interest OI Volume
SPOT USDINR 68.05 68.09 67.91 67.95 -0.09 -- -- -- --
USDINR FEB. FUT. 68.28 68.31 68.16 68.17 -0.13 1167949 37495 677908 -522347
SPOT EURINR 73.05 73.08 72.57 72.59 -0.18 -- -- -- --
EURINR FEB. FUT. 73.23 73.57 72.93 72.94 -0.12 55958 1022 32341 -8542
SPOT GBPINR 85.65 85.67 85.04 85.11 -0.18 -- -- -- --
GBPINR FEB. FUT. 85.90 85.98 85.39 85.47 -0.17 38967 1226 43956 -9513
SPOT JPYINR 59.51 59.52 59.18 59.25 0.10 -- -- -- --
JPYINR FEB. FUT. 59.76 59.81 59.42 59.48 0.04 23682 -905 23797 -9329

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED
Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

01/30/2017 15:30 EC Consumer Confidence Jan F -4.9 -4.9 -4.9

01/30/2017 19:00 US PCE Core YoY Dec 1.70% 1.60% 1.60%
01/30/2017 21:00 US Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Jan 15 22.1 15.5
01/31/2017 05:20 JN Industrial Production YoY Dec P 3.00% 3.00% 4.60%
01/31/2017 JN BOJ Policy Rate 31-Jan -0.10% -0.10% -0.10%

ECONOMIC EVENTS TODAY

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior

01/31/2017 15:30 EC Unemployment Rate Dec 9.80% 9.80%

01/31/2017 15:30 EC GDP SA YoY 4Q A 1.70% 1.70%
01/31/2017 15:30 EC CPI Core YoY Jan A 0.90% 0.90%
01/31/2017 16:30 IN Fiscal Deficit INR Crore Dec -- 34489
01/31/2017 17:30 IN GDP Annual Estimate YoY 2016 -- 7.10%
01/31/2017 20:15 US Chicago Purchasing Manager Jan 55 54.6
01/31/2017 IN Eight Infrastructure Industries Dec -- 4.90%

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]