HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

18 November, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

MAJOR CURRENCY VIEW POINT
Prev.
Close Chg. % Chg. Rupee Strengthens After Four Days Weakness
Close
USDINR 67.828 67.950 -0.123 -0.18% The Indian rupee yesterday strengthens marginally against the US
DXY INDX 101.280 100.00 1.280 1.28% dollar before Fed Yellen's testimony. The home currency opened at
EURUSD 1.060 1.074 -0.014 -1.32% 67.90 against the US dollar. Rupee closed at 67.83 a dollar, up 0.18%
GBPUSD 1.239 1.248 -0.009 -0.73% from its previous close of 67.95. The benchmark 10-year government
bond yield closed at 6.42%a level last seen on 21 May 2009,
USDJPY 110.690 108.92 1.770 1.63%
compared to Wednesdays close of 6.445%.
DG USDINR 68.069 67.953 0.116 0.17% Emerging markets currencies have on average lost 4.6% against the
dollar since Trump's election victory on Nov.8, the rupee has lost only
GLOBAL INDICES 2% on governments reform.
Technically, USDINR outlook remains bullish with higher side resistance
Prev. at 68.20 and support 67.54.
Close Chg. % Chg. RBI Allows FPIs to Invest in Unlisted Corporate Debt Securities
Close
Foreign Portfolio Investors allowed to invest up to 350b rupees in
SGX NIFTY 8087.5 8094.0 -7 -0.08% unlisted debt securities of companies, a statement by RBI said.
NIFTY 8080.0 8111.6 -32 -0.39% This investment will subject to minimum residual maturity of 3 years
SENSEX 26227.6 26298.7 -71 -0.27% with condition of end-use restriction on investment in real estate
HANG-SENG 22330.2 22262.9 67 0.30% business, capital market and purchase of land applies.
December Fed Rate Hike Almost Certain After Yellens Testimony
NIKKEI 18011.8 17862.6 149 0.84%
The dollar was poised for robust weekly gains today. The dollar index
SHANGHAI 3206.8 3208.5 -2 -0.05% stood at 100.95 after rising to 101.10, its highest since April 2003. It
S&P INDEX 2187.1 2176.9 10 0.47% was up 2.6% for the week.
DOW JONES 18903.8 18868.1 36 0.19% Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen signaled that the central bank
NASDAQ wasnt about to roll over in the face of Donald Trumps surprise election
5334.0 5294.6 39 0.74%
victory last week. She told lawmakers yesterday that she intends to
FTSE 6794.7 6749.7 45 0.67% stay in the job until her term expires in January 2018 while extolling
CAC 4527.8 4501.1 27 0.59% the virtues of the Feds independence from political interference.
DAX 10685.5 10663.9 22 0.20% The Federal Reserve is prepared to raise interest rates "relatively
soon," Fed Chair Janet Yellen said to lawmaker. She also added, When
INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Provisional Rs. In Cr) there is greater clarity about the economic policies that might be put
into effect, the committee will have to factor those assessments of
their impacts on employment and inflation and, perhaps, adjust our
Segment 17-Nov-16 16-Nov-16 outlook,.
Equity -1960.25 -2325.70 Yesterdays U.S. data gave more credence to rate-hike bets. Housing
starts marked a nine-year peak last month, weekly jobless claims fell
Debt -7045.11 -2290.62
to a 43-year low and consumer prices posted their biggest increase in
six months. data pushed up yields on U.S. Treasury notes,
underpinning the dollar.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
USDINR NOV. FUTURE DAILY CHART

Technical Observations
The USDINR Nov. Future forms higher highs and lows on daily chart.
The pair sustained above long term moving averages indicating strength in the up trend.
MACD crossed MACD Average Upward near zero line indicating bullishness.
The pair would continue trading with bullish bias with higher side resistance at 68.26 and support 67.48.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS

Near Month Fut. Last Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 View

USDINR 67.91 67.91 67.64 67.73 67.82 68.00 68.09 68.18 Bullish
EURINR 72.95 72.87 72.43 72.55 72.75 73.07 73.19 73.39 Bearish
GBPINR 84.74 84.66 83.95 84.16 84.45 84.95 85.16 85.45 Bearish
JPYINR 62.34 62.30 61.78 61.94 62.14 62.50 62.67 62.87 Bearish

Wkly Wkly 1-Mth. 1-Mth. 52 Wk 52 Wk

Spot 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA
High Low High Low High Low

USDINR 67.25 66.34 67.99 66.34 68.79 66.05 67.48 66.93 66.81 66.98 67.10
EURINR 75.64 72.45 75.64 72.45 77.49 70.24 72.89 73.25 74.06 74.47 74.83
GBPINR 85.11 82.31 85.11 80.89 101.87 80.89 84.46 82.70 84.21 86.19 91.09
JPYINR 66.11 62.33 66.11 61.85 68.11 53.59 62.48 63.62 64.55 64.94 63.07

CURRENCY MOVEMENT

Open Chg. In
Currency Open High Low Close Chg. Chg. in OI Volume
Interest Volume
SPOT USDINR 67.90 67.96 67.77 67.83 -0.12 -- -- -- --
USDINR NOV. FUT. 67.96 68.01 67.83 67.91 -0.10 2465975 110627 1056993 -2003643
SPOT EURINR 72.72 72.89 72.55 72.85 0.09 -- -- -- --
EURINR NOV. FUT. 72.78 72.99 72.67 72.95 0.11 27626 403 29968 -23367
SPOT GBPINR 84.31 84.76 84.27 84.60 0.22 -- -- -- --
GBPINR NOV. FUT. 84.48 84.87 84.38 84.74 0.22 26014 -805 42235 -8138
SPOT JPYINR 62.38 62.38 62.07 62.26 0.31 -- -- -- --
JPYINR NOV. FUT. 62.35 62.47 62.10 62.34 0.29 19438 -1600 36054 -30819

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

11/17/2016 15:30 EC Construction Output YoY Sep -- 1.80% 0.90%
11/17/2016 15:30 EC CPI YoY Oct F 0.50% 0.50% 0.40%
11/17/2016 19:00 US Housing Starts Oct 1160k 1323k 1054k
11/17/2016 19:00 US Building Permits Oct 1195k 1229k 1225k
11/17/2016 19:00 US CPI YoY Oct 1.60% 1.60% 1.50%
11/17/2016 19:00 US Initial Jobless Claims 12-Nov 257k 235k 254k
11/17/2016 19:00 US Continuing Claims 5-Nov 2030k 1977k 2043k

ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior
11/18/2016 14:30 EC ECB Current Account SA Sep -- 29.7b
11/18/2016 20:30 US Leading Index Oct 0.10% 0.20%
11/18/2016 21:30 US Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity Nov -- 6

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com

Disclosure:

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]