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Laurel Weber

Professor Rogacs

Philosophy 25

25 January 2017

Homework Assignment 1: Polls

By collecting data from sample sets, conclusions can be drawn fairly easily about a larger

group. As public opinion surveys, or polls, are the primary means of collecting data about the

general public, it is increasingly important to differentiate between weak and strong inductive

arguments. For a surveys conclusion to be strong, it must have a high confidence interval of

around ninety-five percent and have a low margin of error (Moore 353). Additionally, the survey

must be conducted randomly, and the sample population must be representative of the general

public in order to avoid biased generalizations (Rogacs, Inductive Reasoning Sampling

Methods"). In comparing a strong survey to a weak survey, the impact that bias or the lack

thereof can have on the validity of the polls conclusion.

The following survey, conducted by Politico.com, asks respondents the following

question: Based on what you have seen, read or heard recently about Donald Trumps

inauguration speech, would you say it was excellent, good, only fair, poor, or dont know?, in

addition to backing questions regarding how and if they viewed the speech and whether or not

adjectives such as pessimistic, optimistic, inspiring andboring describe the speech well.

(Sherman, "Poll: Voters Liked Trumps America First Address."). The sample size is 1,992, a

large enough sample size to avoid the fallacy of hastiness (Moore 376). The sample was selected

using a computer algorithm to select randomly from a list of registered voters. The article cites

the survey as evidence that the new presidents inaugural address resonates with voters. The poll
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reports that 411 people answered excellent, 464 people answered fair, 291 people answered fair,

398 answered poor, and 199 people answered dont know or no opinion. The sample population

was taken from registered voters from the United States, all states targeted, meaning the target

population was registered voters in America. The population was not weighted to match national

demographics, however; the population of respondents was eighty-one percent white and, as

admitted by the poll-takers, right-leaning: Questions about Trumps performance at the

inauguration were limited to the 1,762 people who said they watched the address, a sample thats

slightly more Republican than the overall poll (Sherman, "Poll: Voters Liked Trumps America

First Address."). This overrepresentation of the conservative demographic skews the conclusion

of the poll, allowing for a biased generalization regarding the public reception of Donald

Trumps inaugural address. The overrepresentation of white voters by 20% allows for a further

disparity between the results of the poll and general public opinion (Humes, Overview of Race

and Hispanic Origin.). Seeing as 88% of the African-American vote, 65% of the Hispanic/Latino

vote, and 65% of the Asian vote went towards Hillary Clinton, whereas only 37% of the white

vote went to Hillary Clinton; the larger number of white respondents contributed to the biased

generality that the American public approved of Donald Trumps first address (Humes, Overview

of Race and Hispanic Origin.). Based on these factors I would rate the poll a five--it isnt hasty

and its questions are not insinuative or absolute, but the unbalanced sample population could

have resulted in weak results.

Another poll conducted by Marist College asked its sample population, If next weeks

presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are (including

those who are undecided yet leaning toward another candidate or already voted) (SurveyUSA

Election Poll #23322).The sample size here was 1587 people. In this case, the sample size was
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large enough to avoid any hasty generalizations, as this can help accurately predict the behavior

of the United States voting population. The sample population consisted of adults over the age of

eighteen from the United States, with all states being targeted. All respondent interviews were

completed after FBI director James Comey announced 10/28/16 new interest in Hillary Clintons

emails on a previously unknown electronic device. Of the adults interviewed, 816 were

registered to vote. Of those registered, 747 were judged by SurveyUSA to have already voted in

the Presidential election or as certain to do so before polls closed. Of registered voters, 2%

reported that they almost always vote in a Presidential election but will not vote in 2016 because

they do not like any of the candidates. 5% of voters reported that they almost never vote in

Presidential elections but will vote in 2016 because they are particularly drawn to one of the

candidates. The survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents

reachable on their home telephones (56% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home

telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a

home telephone (44% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the screen of their

smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. The methodology of selecting the sample was

entirely random, and is said to have been, based upon a list of telephone exchanges from

throughout the nation from ASDE Survey Sampler, Inc. (SurveyUSA Election Poll #23322).

This ensures that the poll is able to accurately represent each states demographics, which in turn

allows for a more accurate prediction of the election that this poll was analyzing at this time.

Moreover, Marist College conducted this polls random selectivity by first asking for the

youngest male of each household when calling potential voters, to ensure the demographics

accurately represented the greater population. The statistics in this case were within the margin

of error of 2.5 percentage points.

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Addressing the possibility for any opportunities for bias, the methodology of the poll in

question states that the error margin did not adjust for sample weights and increases for cross-

tabulations. Upon further inspection, to adjust for any possible margin of error may not have

been necessary as the election was only days away, and each state had been fairly represented.

Marist College meets the criteria for a rigorously conducted poll and remained transparent

throughout the polling process. As stated before, the target population of the polling sample in

question is based in the United States, as this is a nationwide poll. In terms of strength as a poll, I

would give this poll a 9/10, as it accurately predicted that voting behavior would result in more

popular votes for Hillary Clinton than Donald Trump. A 10 cannot be awarded to this poll simply

because it did not accurately predict the percentage of voters voting for each candidate, but it

was a rather good poll conducted nonetheless.

Overall, it is remarkably important to evaluate any potential biased generalizations when

reading polls. Contrasting these two examples shows the necessity of looking at the sample

demographics and manner of selecting respondents when analyzing the strength of a polls

conclusion.

Works Cited

Harrington, Skye Gould and Rebecca. "7 Charts Show Who Propelled Trump to
Victory."Business Insider. Business Insider, 10 Nov. 2016. Web. 25 Jan. 2017.
Humes, Karen, Nicholas A. Jones, and Roberto R. Ramirez. Overview of Race and Hispanic
Origin, 2010. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Economics and Statistics
Administration, U.S. Census Bureau, 2011. Print.
Marist Poll. "11/5: Final Push: Clinton and Trump Close Nationally." Final Push: Clinton and
Trump Close Nationally | Home of the Marist Poll: Pebbles and Pundits. Marist College,
05 Nov. 2016. Web. 25 Jan. 2017.

Moore, Brook and Parker, Richard. Critical Thinking . 10th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill, 2012.
Print.
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Rogacs, Lynora. "Fallacies of Inductive Reasoning Audio Lecture" Audiocast Lecture. Web. 31
May 2016.

Rogacs, Lynora. Inductive Reasoning Sampling Methods" Online video clip. YouTube.
YouTube, 12 Sep 2013. Web. 31 May 2016

Sherman, Jake. "Poll: Voters Liked Trumps America First Address." Politico, 23 Jan. 2017.
Web. 25 Jan. 2017.

"SurveyUSA Election Poll #23322." SurveyUSA Election Poll #23322. N.p., 01 Nov. 2016. Web.
26 Jan. 2017.