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Estimation of Values & Residual 1 April
Estimation of Values & Residual 1 April
The residual method is used to determine the value of a vacant site with
development potential. It is usually the method used in a tender process to assist
developers with intent to submit a tender bid for the site.
This method requires estimation of the gross development value of the proposed
highest and best use development. Then, various costs of development which
include developers profit, construction cost, etc are estimated based. Deducting the
cost of development will give us the residual value. After which, the residual value
will be discounted for the period of development as well as any other stamp duty.
Due to Singapore legal restriction, the highest and best use of the site had been
designated for only for residential purpose.
In order to obtain the unit price baseline for each type of unit, 1, 2, 3, 4 bedroom, a
series of adjustments were made to the transaction prices from The Glades and
Urban Vista. The prices are then reconciled after the adjustments to arrive at the unit
price baseline to be used in our proposed development. The steps are as follows.
Height premium is the percentage change of the units transacted price per floor level
of the higher and lower floor of identical unit types within the same stack. The
formula used is as follows:
PH P L
Height Premium Per Floor= Height Difference 100
PL
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PH = Price of Higher Unit
Assumption: Time Adjustment is not accounted for since transacted prices are of new sales, and
contract dates are
With using The Santorini and Qbay Residences as comparables, their transacted
data is retrieved from Real Estate Information System (REALIS) database. By
applying the formula above, we are able to obtain the height premium of different
bedroom types for both condominiums as illustrated in Table .
The height premium obtained for all the stacks of the respective bedroom types for
both developments are then totaled and averaged. Refer to Appendix for more
details. Due to limited transacted data of The Santorini, a higher weightage (70:30) is
being assigned to Qbay Residences average height premium to obtain the final
figure for height premium. Table summarizes the values for height premium.
Note: Due to unavailability of transacted 4 and 5 Bedroom units, height premium of 4 and 5 bedroom
units is derived solely from Qbay Residences.
Step 2: Time Adjustment & Height Adjustments ; Determine Unit Price Baseline
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In determining the unit price baseline for our development, available transactions
from the lowest floor possible without pool view are taken from The Santorini and
Qbay Residences. Refer to Appendix & for more details. The first adjustment made
to the unit price of each transaction is time. The prices are adjusted to the current
PPI of condominium as of 2014Q4. The formula used for time adjustment is as
follows:
PPI 2014Q 4
Price psf 2014 Q 1= UP UP = unit price/psf
PPI then
The second adjustment is height. All units identified are adjusted to the first level to
formulate the unit price baseline. The premium height factor in Table is applied in
relative to the development which means units from Qbay Residences will follow the
height premium calculated within Qbay Residences. The formula used for the
computation of height adjustment is as follows:
An example of the working for the calculation of the height premium adjustment is
shown in Table.
Qbaypremium
Height adjustment =UP [1+ ( Height Height Residences
)]
Development
Unit #02-11
Unit price (psf) $1,033.00
Unit price after time adjustment $989.26
Height difference 1
Height premium (Qbay Residences) 0.92% per floor level
Unit Price after height adjustment $980.20
Table : Example of Time & Height Premium Adjustment Calculation
Note: First floor units were not taken due to the presence of private enclosed spaces, which may
result in inaccuracy in the result obtained.
The unit prices were then averaged to obtain a single unit price per unit type per
development shown in the last column in Appendix & .
A weightage ratio (70:30) was then assigned to the average from The Santorini and
Qbay Residences for reconciliation due to the limited transactions in The Santorini
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discussed earlier on. After applying the adjustments to our transaction data, the unit
price baselines obtained are reflected in Table .
Note: Due to unavailability of transacted 4 and 5 Bedroom units, average unit price of 4 and 5
bedroom units is derived solely from Qbay Residences.
As the unit type of units in a stack of 15 floor levels are identical, the average unit
price of the entire development categorised by indiviual unit size can be determined
by taking the average of the 15 units in a stack. This is shown in table:
Floors 1 room (psf) 2 room (psf) 3 room (psf) 4 room (psf) 5 room (psf)
1 $ 1,031.97 $ 980.00 $ 958.60 $ 945.23 $ 913.71
2 $ 1,042.03 $ 987.06 $ 965.93 $ 952.46 $ 922.87
3 $ 1,052.09 $ 994.12 $ 973.25 $ 959.69 $ 932.02
4 $ 1,062.16 $ 1,001.17 $ 980.58 $ 966.93 $ 941.17
5 $ 1,072.22 $ 1,008.23 $ 987.90 $ 974.16 $ 950.33
6 $ 1,082.29 $ 1,015.28 $ 995.23 $ 981.39 $ 959.48
7 $ 1,092.35 $ 1,022.34 $ 1,002.55 $ 988.62 $ 968.63
8 $ 1,102.42 $ 1,029.39 $ 1,009.88 $ 995.85 $ 977.79
9 $ 1,112.48 $ 1,036.45 $ 1,017.20 $ 1,003.08 $ 986.94
10 $ 1,122.55 $ 1,043.50 $ 1,024.53 $ 1,010.31 $ 996.09
11 $ 1,132.61 $ 1,050.56 $ 1,031.85 $ 1,017.54 $ 1,005.25
12 $ 1,142.68 $ 1,057.62 $ 1,039.18 $ 1,024.77 $ 1,014.40
13 $ 1,152.74 $ 1,064.67 $ 1,046.50 $ 1,032.01 $ 1,023.55
14 $ 1,162.80 $ 1,071.73 $ 1,053.83 $ 1,039.24 $ 1,032.71
15 $ 1,172.87 $ 1,078.78 $ 1,061.15 $ 1,046.47 $ 1,041.86
Average $ 1,102.42 $ 1,029.39 $ 1,009.88 $ 995.85 $ 977.79
Table : Average unit price for all 15 levels ($/psf)
The Net Floor Area (NFA) for each specific room type is estimated to be:
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Proposed Unit Type Floor Area (sqm) No. of Units NFA(sqm) NFA(sqft)
1 Bedroom 45-50 (47.5) 110 5225 56241.9
2 Bedrooms 75-82 (87.5) 151 13212.5 142219.4
3 Bedrooms 90-111 (100.5) 180 18090 194720.8
Hence the expected GDV for Tampines Parcel D site is the total of:
Estimation of costs
Construction Costs
Construction costs are the cost of construction of a development and are mainly
affected by currency fluctuations and prices of essential construction materials.
Based on Singapore Report December 2014 Rider Levett Bucknall, the construction
cost for a medium quality development, is approximately between $2,700 and $3,400
per GFA shown in Table,
Additionally, we have chosen the lower bound of the cost/GFA of $2,700 to reflect
market conditions in line with current competitive tendering by main and sub
constructors. However, there may be deviations due to the volatile price changes in
the essential construction materials such as cement.
1 CONSTRUCTION MARKET QUARTERLY UPDATE. (2014, December 1). Rider Levett Bucknall, 9-9.
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Construction Period
The construction period of the proposed development is approximated to be 2.5
years. This estimated duration is derived from past completed developments of
similar size and complexity.
Professional fees
Professional fees are the fees to be paid to professionals hired to be engaged in the
construction process (e.g. Architects, project managers). Upon market practices of
history, we observe that architect commands 5-7% of the total construction cost and
a project manager commands 1-2% of the total construction cost. As such, the
estimated professional fee for our development is estimated to be 8%.
Financing Cost
On the other hand, we factor a lower risk margin of 1.15% for the financing cost for
purchase of land as the transacted land has been pledged as collateral. Thus the
financing cost for purchase of land amounts to 6.5%.
2
https://secure.mas.gov.sg/msb/InterestRatesOfBanksAndFinanceCompanies.aspx
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Marketing and Legal fees
The marketing fee for the proposed development is deemed to be 3%, in line with
market data, where typical marketing fees for residential projects are between 2.5%-
3.5%. Additionally, legal fees are typically charged at a rate of 1-2%. Hence legal
fees are estimated to be 1.5% taking into consideration the need for a buffer to meet
unforeseen circumstances. Hence marketing and legal fees are estimated to be
4.5% of the GDV.
Profit Margin
According to a study by Knight Frank3, profit margins of new leasehold condominium
launched in 2014 has dropped more than 50% from 2013 and 2012 of around 20%.
Hence we arrive the estimated developers profit margin at 10%.
PR 2.8
GFA 43,850
3 http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/property-management-
news/2014/9/62293/developer-profit-margins-fall-significantly-study-
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GDV: $445,128,134.84
Less
Construction cost: $2700 psm x GFA (43,850sqm) $118,395,000.00
Professional fees: 8% $9,471,600.00
Financing cost for construction $11,782,508.81
Marketing and legal: 4.5%of GDV $20,030,766.07
Developers profit: 10% of GDV $44,512,813.48
Residual Sum: $240,935,446.48
Table: Adjustment Table for Residual Method
Appendices
1-Bedroom
21 Tampines Street 86 #13- $576,000.0 $18,063.00 $18,063.0 3.136%
463 12 0 15 May 2014 1 0
21 Tampines Street 86 #12- $557,937.0
463 12 0 30 May 2014
21 Tampines Street 86 #15- $579,000.0 $5,000.00 $1,666.67 0.864%
463 11 0 7 May 2014 3
21 Tampines Street 86 #12- $564,000.0
463 11 0 2 May 2014
21 Tampines Street 86 #15- $580,000.0 $5,000.00 $1,250.00 0.862%
463 12 0 30 April 2014 4
21 Tampines Street 86 #11- $560,000.0
463 12 0 29 April 2014
21 Tampines Street 86 #12- $623,700.0 15 December $1,850.00 $925.00 0.297%
527 08 0 2014 2
21 Tampines Street 86 #10- $620,000.0 23 December
527 08 0 2014
21 Tampines Street 86 #10- $606,870.0 12 November $3,974.00 $794.80 0.655%
527 04 0 2014 5
21 Tampines Street 86 #05- $587,000.0
527 04 0 30 October 2014
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21 Tampines Street 86 #09- $608,000.0 $5,333.33 $1,777.78 0.877%
527 04 0 28 October 2014 3
21 Tampines Street 86 #06- $592,000.0
527 04 0 29 October 2014
Average: 1.115%
2-Bedroom
21 Tampines Street 86 #10- $790,000.0 $5,000.00 $5,000.00 0.633%
721 01 0 15 May 2014 1
21 Tampines Street 86 #09- $785,000.0
721 01 0 30 May 2014
21 Tampines Street 86 #07- $767,000.0 -$1,000.00 ($333.33) -0.130%
721 01 0 7 May 2014 3
21 Tampines Street 86 #06- $770,000.0
721 01 0 2 May 2014
21 Tampines Street 86 #15- $580,000.0 $5,000.00 $1,250.00 0.862%
463 12 0 30 April 2014 4
21 Tampines Street 86 #11- $560,000.0
463 12 0 29 April 2014
21 Tampines Street 86 #12- $623,700.0 15 December $1,850.00 $925.00 0.297%
527 08 0 2014 2
21 Tampines Street 86 #10- $620,000.0 23 December
527 08 0 2014
21 Tampines Street 86 #10- $606,870.0 12 November $3,974.00 $794.80 0.655%
527 04 0 2014 5
21 Tampines Street 86 #05- $587,000.0
527 04 0 30 October 2014
21 Tampines Street 86 #09- $608,000.0 $5,333.33 $1,777.78 0.877%
527 04 0 28 October 2014 3
21 Tampines Street 86 #06- $592,000.0
527 04 0 29 October 2014
Average: 0.532%
3-Bedroom
29 Tampines Street 86 #12- $1,316,000 $9,492.22 $1,054.69 0.721%
1152 27 .00 21 April 2014 9
29 Tampines Street 86 #03- $1,230,570
1152 27 .00 9 June 2014
35 Tampines Street 86 #08- $1,170,000 $8,000.00 $2,666.67 0.684%
1044 41 .00 9 April 2014 3
35 Tampines Street 86 #05- $1,146,000
1044 41 .00 25 April 2014
35 Tampines Street 86 #07- $1,158,250 $15,180.00 $5,060.00 1.311%
1044 40 .00 5 January 2015 3
35 Tampines Street 86 #04- $1,112,710
1044 40 .00 5 January 2015
Average: 0.905%
1-Bedroom
1 Tampines Street 86 #11- 1 February $6,737.50 $842.19 1.080%
517 08 $623,700.00 2013 8
1 Tampines Street 86 #03- 30 January
517 08 $569,800.00 2013
1 Tampines Street 86 #10- 4 February $3,850.00 $1,925.00 0.645%
517 02 $596,750.00 2013 2
1 Tampines Street 86 #08- 4 February
517 02 $589,050.00 2013
1 Tampines Street 86 #15- $1,944.00 $388.80 0.301%
527 01 $645,570.00 17 April 2013 5
1 Tampines Street 86 #10-
527 01 $635,850.00 10 April 2013
3 Tampines Street 86 #13- 14 March $7,020.00 $780.00 1.131%
527 17 $620,460.00 2013 9
3 Tampines Street 86 #04- 22 March
527 17 $557,280.00 2013
3 Tampines Street 86 #14- 19 February $8,202.86 $1,171.84 1.227%
527 14 $668,800.00 2013 7
527 3 Tampines Street 86 #07- $611,380.00 19 February
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14 2013
3 Tampines Street 86 #10- 20 February $7,042.50 $1,760.63 1.108%
527 14 $635,700.00 2013 4
3 Tampines Street 86 #06- 20 February
527 14 $607,530.00 2013
Average: 0.915%
2-Bedroom
1 Tampines Street 86 #15- 3 October $5,740.00 $5,740.00 0.647%
797 04 $887,240.00 2013 1
1 Tampines Street 86 #14- 7 October
797 04 $881,500.00 2013
3 Tampines Street 86 #12- $4,353.33 $725.56 0.463%
829 13 $939,600.00 8 April 2013 6
3 Tampines Street 86 #06-
829 13 $913,480.00 5 April 2013
3 Tampines Street 86 #15- $7,850.00 $1,962.50 0.804%
829 15 $976,860.00 1 July 2013 4
3 Tampines Street 86 #11-
829 13 $945,460.00 15 July 2013
15 Tampines Street 86 #12- 8 October $4,920.00 $4,920.00 0.483%
883 37 $1,017,620.00 2013 1
15 Tampines Street 86 #11- 4 October
883 37 $1,012,700.00 2013
17 Tampines Street 86 #06- 8 November $12,573.33 $4,191.11 1.259%
883 40 $998,760.00 2013 3
17 Tampines Street 86 #03- 31 October
883 40 $961,040.00 2013
17 Tampines Street 86 #11- 20 November $11,815.00 $1,969.17 1.146%
883 40 $1,030,740.00 2013 6
17 Tampines Street 86 #05- 27 November
883 40 $959,850.00 2013
Average: 0.800%
3-Bedroom
15 Tampines Street 86 #14- 24 September $7,544.00 $754.40 0.584%
1163 34 $1,290,680.00 2013 10
15 Tampines Street 86 #04- 28 August
1163 34 $1,215,240.00 2013
15 Tampines Street 86 #11- $8,100.00 $8,100.00 0.646%
1163 34 $1,253,070.00 31 July 2013 1
15 Tampines Street 86 #10-
1163 34 $1,244,970.00 29 July 2013
15 Tampines Street 86 #11- $12,496.67 $4,165.56 0.976%
1163 35 $1,280,840.00 12 July 2013 3
15 Tampines Street 86 #08-
1163 35 $1,243,350.00 9 July 2013
9 Tampines Street 86 #14- $7,380.00 $7,380.00 0.587%
1119 27 $1,256,240.00 8 April 2014 1
9 Tampines Street 86 #13-
1119 27 $1,248,860.00 8 April 2014
9 Tampines Street 86 #13- $15,033.33 $5,011.11 1.330%
1033 26 $1,129,960.00 21 April 2014 3
9 Tampines Street 86 #07-
1033 26 $1,084,860.00 21 April 2014
11 Tampines Street 86 #14- $1,093.33 $182.22 0.098%
1033 30 $1,120,120.00 11 April 2014 6
11 Tampines Street 86 #13- 14 February
1033 30 $1,113,560.00 2014
Average: 0.704%
4-Bedroom
7 Tampines Street 86 #14- $8,692.00 $869.20 0.593%
1410 24 $1,466,980.00 12 May 2014 10
7 Tampines Street 86 #04-
1410 24 $1,380,060.00 16 May 2014
7 Tampines Street 86 #15- $13,002.50 $3,250.63 0.881%
1410 24 $1,475,180.00 17 April 2014 4
7 Tampines Street 86 #11-
1410 24 $1,423,170.00 28 April 2014
9 Tampines Street 86 #15- 28 February $8,647.27 $786.12 0.571%
1410 28 $1,514,540.00 2014 11
9 Tampines Street 86 #04-
1410 28 $1,419,420.00 11 April 2014
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9 Tampines Street 86 #06- 26 December $8,200.00 $8,200.00 0.571%
1410 28 $1,436,640.00 2013 1
9 Tampines Street 86 #05- 26 December
1410 28 $1,428,440.00 2013
7 Tampines Street 86 #06- 23 October $19,680.00 $6,560.00 1.375%
1410 23 $1,430,900.00 2013 3
7 Tampines Street 86 #03- 24 September
1410 23 $1,371,860.00 2013
7 Tampines Street 86 #08- $8,370.00 $2,790.00 0.599%
1410 24 $1,397,250.00 21 June 2013 3
7 Tampines Street 86 #05- 13 September
1410 24 $1,372,140.00 2013
Average: 0.765%
5-Bedroom
11 Tampines Street 86 #15- 25 February $4,923.33 $820.56 0.296%
1615 31 $1,660,890.00 2013 6
11 Tampines Street 86 #09-
1615 31 $1,631,350.00 5 March 2013
11 Tampines Street 86 #08- 15 February $30,915.00 $15,457.5 1.907%
1615 31 $1,621,080.00 2013 2 0
11 Tampines Street 86 #06- 14 February
1615 31 $1,559,250.00 2013
11 Tampines Street 86 #14- 14 February $14,490.00 $1,317.27 0.878%
1615 31 $1,650,880.00 2013 11
11 Tampines Street 86 #03- 14 February
1615 31 $1,491,490.00 2013
11 Tampines Street 86 #11- 14 February $17,966.67 $2,994.44 1.109%
1615 31 $1,620,080.00 2013 6
11 Tampines Street 86 #05- 14 February
1615 31 $1,512,280.00 2013
11 Tampines Street 86 #12- 13 February $16,170.00 $2,021.25 0.992%
1615 31 $1,630,860.00 2013 8
11 Tampines Street 86 #04- 13 February
1615 31 $1,501,500.00 2013
11 Tampines Street 86 #10- 1 February $13,520.00 $4,506.67 0.829%
1615 31 $1,630,980.00 2013 3
11 Tampines Street 86 #07- 6 February
1615 31 $1,590,420.00 2013
Average: 1.002%
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21 Tampines $577,000.00 $11,776.00 $1,094.0 28-Apr-14
Street 86 #02- 0 $ $ $
10 527 1,080.11 (12.04) 1,068.07
2-Bedroom
21 Tampines $
Street 86 #02- $1,093.0 $ $ $ 1,036.2
13 732 $800,000.00 $11,765.00 0 22-Apr-14 1,079.12 (5.74) 1,073.38 4
35 Tampines
Street 86 #02- $1,037.0 $ $ $
38 753 $781,110.00 $11,159.00 0 5-Nov-14 1,037.00 (5.52) 1,031.48
29 Tampines
Street 86 #02- $1,034.0 $ $ $
29 915 $946,000.00 $11,129.00 0 22-Apr-14 1,020.87 (5.43) 1,015.44
27 Tampines
Street 86 #08- $1,078.0 $ $ $
24 915 $986,000.00 $11,600.00 0 22-Apr-14 1,064.31 (39.65) 1,024.66
3-Bedroom
35 Tampines $1,146,000.00 $11,814.00 $1,098.0 25-Apr-14 $
Street 86 #05- 0 $ $ $ 1,036.1
41 1044 1,084.06 (39.25) 1,044.81 6
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1 Tampines $564,410.00 $11,759.00 $1,092.0 13-Feb-13
Street 86 #02- 0 $
02 517 $ 1,077.04 (9.86) $1,067.18
3 Tampines $509,740.00 $10,403.00 $966.00 20-Feb-13
Street 86 #02- $
17 527 $ 952.77 (8.72) $ 944.05
1 Tampines $563,640.00 $11,503.00 $1,069.0 20-Feb-13
Street 86 #02- 0 $
03 527 $ 1,054.36 (9.65) $1,044.70
1 Tampines $560,560.00 $11,440.00 $1,063.0 19-Feb-13
Street 86 #02- 0 $
01 527 $ 1,048.44 (9.60) $1,038.84
1 Tampines $569,800.00 $11,871.00 $1,103.0 30-Jan-13
Street 86 #03- 0
08 517 $ 1,087.89 $ (19.92) $1,067.97
3 Tampines $522,060.00 $10,876.00 $1,010.0 15-Feb-13
Street 86 #03- 0
11 517 $ 996.16 $ (22.22) $ 973.95
1 Tampines $569,030.00 $11,855.00 $1,101.0 19-Feb-13
Street 86 #03- 0
02 517 $ 1,085.92 $ (19.88) $1,066.04
1 Tampines $567,490.00 $11,581.00 $1,076.0 5-Feb-13
Street 86 #03- 0
07 527 $ 1,061.26 $ (19.43) $1,041.83
3 Tampines $514,360.00 $10,497.00 $975.00 7-Feb-13
Street 86 #03-
17 527 $ 961.64 $ (17.61) $ 944.04
1 Tampines $567,490.00 $11,581.00 $1,076.0 20-Feb-13
Street 86 #03- 0
03 527 $ 1,061.26 $ (19.43) $1,041.83
2-Bedroom
3 Tampines $733,910.00 $10,337.00 $960.00 8-Feb-13
Street 86 #02- $
14 764 $ 946.85 (7.58) $ 939.27 $ 955.90
1 Tampines $746,550.00 $10,515.00 $977.00 25-Feb-13
Street 86 #02- $
07 764 $ 963.62 (7.71) $ 955.90
1 Tampines $830,760.00 $11,226.00 $1,043.0 6-Feb-13
Street 86 #02- 0 $
10 797 $ 1,028.71 (8.23) $1,020.48
1 Tampines $777,660.00 $10,509.00 $976.00 18-Feb-13
Street 86 #02- $
04 797 $ 962.63 (7.71) $ 954.93
3 Tampines $739,970.00 $10,000.00 $929.00 21-Feb-13
Street 86 #02- $
12 797 $ 916.27 (7.33) $ 908.94
3-Bedroom
1 Tampines $955,570.00 $9,954.00 $925.00 14-Feb-13
Street 86 #02- $
06 1033 $ 912.33 (6.42) $ 905.91 $ 925.36
4-Bedroom
7 Tampines $1,361,200.00 $10,391.00 $965.00 28-May-14
Street 86 #03-
24 1410 $ 952.75 $ (14.58) $ 938.17 $ 945.23
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7 Tampines $1,466,980.00 $11,198.00 $1,040.0 12-May-14
Street 86 #14- 0
24 1410 $ 1,026.80 $ (102.12) $ 924.68
5-Bedroom
11 Tampines $1,631,350.00 $10,876.00 $1,010.0 5-Mar-13
Street 86 #09- 0
31 1615 $ 996.16 $ (60.97) $ 935.20 $ 913.71
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