How to Rank Programme Risks

Individually rank each risk identified according to its frequency/likelihood and its severity.
Enter information into white cells. Shaded cells will calculate automatically.

Step 1 Rank the frequency/likelihood of a given risk from 1 to 4 using these criteria:

4 = Very Likely - Almost certain to occur over the life of the project (or a 10 year period - whichever is shorter)
3 = Likely - Probably will occur during a 10-year period
2 = Unlikely - Probably will NOT occur during a 10-year period
1 = Very Unlikely - Almost certain NOT to occur during a 10-year period

Step 2 Rank the severity of a given risk from 1 to 4 using these criteria:

4 = Very High Would prevent goals and objectives from being achieved
3 = High Would cause significant problems or delays in objectives being achieved
2 = Medium Would cause relatively minor problems or delays in objectives being achieved
1 = Low Would probably not affect project implementation

Step 3 Compute the average frequency/likelihood and average severity ranking for each risk category.
The risk assessment tool will calculate and display these averages automatically.

Step 4 Add the average frequency/likelihood and severity ranking for each risk category.
The risk assessment tool will calculate and display these sums automatically.

Step 5 Determine whether each risk category is high, medium, or low according to the following thresholds:
6-8 High Risk (red) You should have a detailed mitigation action and perhaps consider modifying your goals and objectives
4-5 Medium Risk (yellow) You should have a clearly defined mitigation action
1-3 Low Risk (green) No mitigation action required (or a very basic action if you think it is necessary)

The risk assessment tool will determine and display whether each risk is high, medium or low automatically.
High risks categories will automatically turn cells red, medium risks will automatically turn yellow, and low risks will automatically turn green.

How to develop Risk Mitigation Actions

For risks that are essentially internal (e.g. Capacity, Leadership, Partners) you should focus on taking action to reduce the risk.
For risks that are external to the project (e.g. Political, Economic) your response will more likely be to develop contingency plans and monitor the risks.

Your overall risk mitigation strategy should be simple, clear and manageable with the resources available.
 Input SPECIFIC risks that your
Programme Risk Assessment Tool team identifies when discussing
questions for consideration.

Risk Category/Questions for Consideration Identified Risks (Notes) Risk Likelihood Risk Severity Risk Ranking
1) Partner (non-government) 2 3 5
a) Has a full stakeholder analysis been Example: Programme does not 3 2
completed? (Step 1.4) know which partner organizations Likelihood of Risk Severity of Risk
Occurring
are critical to its success. 4 = Very High Would
(Note: Sample scores are filled in 4 = Very Likely Almost prevent goals and
certain to occur over the objectives from being
for 2 columns at right to life of the project (or a 10 achieved
demonstrate how tool operates. year period, whichever is
Delete all contents of white cells in shorter) 3 = High Would cause
significant problems or
this column and 2 columns at right 3 = Likely Probably will delays in objectives being
before using tool. Do not delete occur during a 10-year achieved
period
formulas in blue cells.) 2 = Medium Would
2 = Unlikely Probably cause relatively minor
will NOT occur during a 10- problems or delays in
year period 2 objectives being
3 achieved
b) Are all of the necessary partners engaged in Example: Lack of engagement with
the process? indigenous group X. 1 = Very Unlikely 1 = Low Would probably
Almost certain NOT to not affect project
c) Do the partners completely support the Example: Key partner Y does not occur during4a 10-year 2
implementation
vision, goals and objectives of the programme? agree on long-term vision and goals. period
(Steps 1.2 and 2.1)
d) Have strong governance structures or Example: Lack of strong 2 4
agreements been developed for partner governance structures and
involvement and interaction? (Step 3.4) agreements.
e) Is there a reliable process in place to resolve Etc 1 1
disagreements between partners?
f) Is the programme overly dependent on 1 or 2 1 4
key partners?
2) Political (including government partners) 3 2 5
a) Is the political situation stable in each 4 1
country or region that the programme spans?

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 Input SPECIFIC risks that your
team identifies when discussing
questions for consideration.

Risk Category/Questions for Consideration Identified Risks (Notes) Risk Likelihood Risk Severity Risk Ranking
b) Do the governments or agencies involved 1 4
have competing agendas?
Likelihood of
4 Risk Severity of1Risk
c) Do all political partners completely support Occurring
the vision, goals and objectives of this 4 = Very High Would
programme? (Steps 1.2 and 2.1) 4 = Very Likely Almost prevent goals and
certain to occur over the objectives from being
life of the project
1 (or a 10 achieved
d) Is there a reliable process in place to resolve year period, whichever is
1
differences between governments or shorter) 3 = High Would cause
government agencies? significant problems or
3 = Likely Probably will delays in objectives being
occur during3a 10-year achieved
3) Economic period
3 6
a) Is the programme subject to inflationary risk 3 2 = Medium 3 Would
2 = Unlikely Probably cause relatively minor
in any country where activities or fundraising will NOT occur during a 10- problems or delays in
takes place? year period objectives being achieved

b) Is the programme subject to foreign 3

1 = Very Unlikely 3
1 = Low Would probably
Almost certain NOT to not affect project
exchange risk in any country where activities or occur during a 10-year implementation
fundraising takes place? period

c) Is the programme subject to interest rate risk 3 3

in any country where borrowing or lending takes
place?
4) Infrastructure 2 2 4
a) Does the country or region have the 2 2
appropriate infrastructure to carry out and
support programme implementation?
b) Is there an appropriate management and/or 2 2
HR/recruitment structure in place that can be
leveraged to roll out the programme?
c) Is there an appropriate banking and financial 2 2
structure to distribute and control funding?

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 Input SPECIFIC risks that your
team identifies when discussing
questions for consideration.

Risk Category/Questions for Consideration Identified Risks (Notes) Risk Likelihood Risk Severity Risk Ranking
d) Is the appropriate basic infrastructure 2 2
available for programme personnel (food,
transportation, and other basic services)? Likelihood of Risk Severity of Risk
Occurring
e) Is a basic communication infrastructure in 2 4 = Very High2 Would
4 = Very Likely Almost prevent goals and
place? certain to occur over the objectives from being
life of the project
1 (or a 10 achieved
5) Technical year period, whichever is
2 3
a) Is the scientific basis for this conservation shorter) 1 2
3 = High Would cause
significant problems or
programme well understood? 3 = Likely Probably will delays in objectives being
occur during2a 10-year achieved
b) Is there a clear definition of programme period
1
success in scientific terms? (Steps 1.3 and 2.1) 2 = Medium Would
2 = Unlikely Probably cause relatively minor
c) Is there agreement between partners on the 1 during a 10-
will NOT occur problems or 2delays in
targets, threats, and root causes or drivers of the year period objectives being achieved
threats? (Steps 1.3 and 1.4) 1 = Very Unlikely 1 = Low Would probably
Almost certain NOT to not affect project
6) Capacity occur during3a 10-year 3
implementation 6
period
a) Has a realistic assessment been done to 3 3
quantify skills and systems capacity
requirements for all key activities? (Step 2.3)
b) Among your core team, are the technical, 3 3
management and leadership skills available to
fully implement the programme? (Step 2.3)
c) Are the necessary technical and management 3 3
skills available within other partners to
implement the programme? (Step 2.3)

d) Can the programme be implemented in the 3 3

timeline envisioned?
7) Financial 1 2 3

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 Input SPECIFIC risks that your
team identifies when discussing
questions for consideration.

Risk Category/Questions for Consideration Identified Risks (Notes) Risk Likelihood Risk Severity Risk Ranking
a) Has a comprehensive financial model been 1 2
created that accurately reflects all costs for
activities and assesses any funding gaps? (Step Likelihood of Risk Severity of Risk
2.3) Occurring
4 = Very High Would
4 = Very Likely Almost prevent goals and
b) What if funders/investors are not as interested 1 over the
certain to occur 2 being
objectives from
in funding the program as expected? life of the project (or a 10 achieved
year period, whichever is
c) Is funding significantly affected by the other shorter) 1 1
3 = High Would cause
significant problems or
risks (political stability, partner disagreement, 3 = Likely Probably will delays in objectives being
lack of infrastructure, etc)? occur during a 10-year achieved
period
8) Leadership/Management 3 2 = Medium 2 Would 5
2 = Unlikely Probably cause relatively minor
a) Is there a working governance structure in 1 during a 10-
will NOT occur problems or 4delays in
place to manage the programme? (Step 3.4) year period objectives being achieved

b) Is there a strong leader in place that 4

1 = Very Unlikely 1
1 = Low Would probably
Almost certain NOT to not affect project
establishes clear accountability for the success occur during a 10-year implementation
of the programme? period

c) Are there clear indicators that can be used to 4 1

measure progress and success? (Steps 1.3 and
2.1)
9) Other 1 1 2
a) 1 1
b) 1 1
c) 1 1
10) Other 3 4 7
a) 2 4
b) 4 4
c) 4 4

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Programme Risk Summary & Mitigation Tool
Insert rows as required to add risks within a category or separate risk mitigation strategies assigned to multiple responsible parties.

Risk Category Risk Description Score Ranking Risk Mitigation Strategy Responsible Party

1) Partner (non-government) 5 M

2) Political (including 5 M
government partners)
3) Economic 6 H
4) Infrastructure 4 M
5) Technical 3 L
6) Capacity 6 H
7) Financial 3 L
8) Leadership/Management 5 M
9) Other 2 L
10) Other 7 H
Average Programme Ranking 5 M

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