Russian Geology and Geophysics 49 (2008) 291296

www.elsevier.com/locate/rgg

Monte-Carlo simulation for estimating topographic disturbance

to heat flow data
D.E. Ayunov *, A.D. Duchkov
Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 3, prosp. Koptyuga, Novosibirsk, 630090, Russia
Received 4 July 2007; accepted 7 September 2007

Abstract

The Earths surface topography disturbs the thermal field making measured superficial thermal gradients (heat flow) higher or lower than
the deep value. Topographic disturbance can be removed from data by applying the respective correction. We estimated the effect of the
rugged bottom of Lake Baikal on thermal gradients from the vicinity of boreholes BDP-93 and BDP-96 drilled in the lake sediments and
deep borehole L-2 on the western shore of the South Baikal basin near Listvyanka Village. The corrections were computed using a Monte-Carlo
simulation algorithm specially designed to quantify the effect of surface topography on the thermal field. The performance of the algorithm
was checked by a test example. The corrections turned out to be vanishing in the area of underwater drilling but significant at L-2 where the
thermal gradient in the upper 1 km of rocks was about 20% underestimated. The corrected heat flow in L-2 data increased from 50 to
2
60 mW/m and approached the values measured in the central South Baikal basin.
2008, IGM, Siberian Branch of the RAS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Thermal logging; topographic disturbance of geothermal field; Monte-Carlo simulation; digital elevation model of Baikal bottom; topographic
correction to heat flow data; Lake Baikal

Introduction Monte-Carlo statistical methods (Ermakov and Mikhailov,

The Earths shallow thermal field is distorted by many
effects, including topography and surface temperature vari-
ations in mountain terrains and in seas or lakes with a rugged
bottom. The available experience shows that the effect of relief
is to make measured thermal gradients (heat flow) higher in
basins and lower in mountains relative to undisturbed deep
values. Topographic disturbance is the greatest near the
surface and decreases depthward. This effect can be removed
from data by applying the respective correction. In the general
case, the topographic correction is found as a difference
between the deep and superficial thermal gradients by solving
a steady-state thermal conductivity problem (Laplace equa-
tion) with variable coefficients, nonuniform conductivity dis-
tribution, and a constant heat flow at the lower boundary.
There are different ways of applying topographic correc-
tions to measured thermal gradients (Duchkov and Sokolova,
1974; Lyubimova et al., 1973; Powell et al., 1988), namely
the Jeffris-Bullard, plane-slope, finite-difference, finite-ele-
ment, and other methods. We explored the possibility of using
* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: einfff@gmail.com (D.E. Ayunov)
1068-7971/$ - see front matter D 2008, IGM, Siberian Branch of the RAS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j. rgg.2007.09.012
1982) to estimate the topographic disturbance of heat flow
data from the BDP-93 and BDP-96 boreholes drilled in Lake
Baikal sediments and borehole L-2 in the western shore of the
South Baikal basin near Listvyanka Village. The effect of
topography on the temperature and heat flow data obtained
earlier at these sites has never been estimated to a proper
accuracy. Updating the heat flow estimates has become
possible since recently due to a high-resolution digital bathy-
metry of Lake Baikal reported in (Sherstyankin et al., 2003).
Below we provide a brief description of the used Monte-Carlo
simulation technique and its application to estimating the
topographic disturbance of thermal gradients.
Problem formulation
The effect of topography on heat flow data is estimated by
solving a steady-state thermal conductivity equation
T(x, z) = 0 in a limited uniform-conductivity domain D
(D R2), free from heat sources, with mixed boundary
conditions (Fig. 1). The domain is simulated as a 1012 km
thick block with a rugged surface. The boundary conditions
are a constant thermal gradient undisturbed by topography
292 D.E. Ayunov and A.D. Duchkov / Russian Geology and Geophysics 49 (2008) 291296
Fig. 1. A random walk sketch for simulating topographic disturbance to superfi-
cial thermal gradients. A starting point, B point of break.
T 1
(Gd = = Q, where Q is the heat flow) at the bottom, the
z d
temperature distribution T = f(x) at the top, and no lateral heat
transport at the sides (T/x = 0, or, otherwise, balanced heat
input and output).
The problem is solved using a Monte-Carlo algorithm to
reconstruct the 2D temperature field with regard to the
contribution from topography. The thermal gradient Gz is
found by finite-difference approximation from two calculated
T1 T2
temperatures at the depths z1 and z2: Gz = . The
z1 z2
topographic disturbance is estimated by comparison of thus
estimated and deep temperature gradients.
Monte-Carlo simulation for solving the Laplace
equation boundary-value problem
The theoretical background for Monte-Carlo solutions of
second- and third-kind boundary-value problems can be found
in (Ermakov and Mikhailov, 1982; Mikhailov and Makarov,
1997; Sabelfeld and Simonov, 1994). Simonov (2006) sug-
gested new approaches to elliptical problems using the
algorithm of random walk on a sphere while Haji-Sheikh and
Sparrow (1967) and Langseth et al. (1976) applied Monte-
Carlo methods to geothermal studies.
In the formulated 2D boundary-value problem for the
Laplace equation in a limited domain (Fig. 1), the temperature
at the inner point A is found as a mathematical expectation of
some random value . This value is implemented as random
walk with a starting point at A, on a sphere in the 3D case
and on a circle in the 2D case. The initial step from the point
A and all subsequent steps follow the same rules until the path
reaches a boundary. A circle is constructed with its center at
the current point and the maximum radius r such that to keep
the circle within the domain limits. The circle touches the
boundary at least at a single point. The direction of the step
is chosen at random within the range 0 < 2. Displace-
ment for the distance r at gives a new position by the end
of the step.
N random walk paths start at the point A, and the i-th
random walk from A stops upon reaching the vicinity of the
boundary where the temperature is specified by the user, and
i = Ti, where Ti is the temperature at the break point of the
i-th random walk. If the temperature is set at all boundaries
of the domain, T(A) is
_ N
T (A) = (A) = Ti ,
1
N
i=1
where N is the number of paths starting at A. This estimate
converges to the real temperature at N .
The procedure becomes more complicated when heat flow
or temperature gradients are assumed to be normal to a
boundary (T/n = Gn). Then, the boundary conditions are
Gd
given as the finite-difference approximation Gn . The
temperature at the boundary, unknown in this case, can be
written as
Tb = Td + Gd,
where Td is the temperature at the inner point located at the
distance d, along the boundary-orthogonal direction, from the
paths current point on the boundary. Gd may correspond to
a part of the contribution from the i-th random walk to the
sought temperature, but Td being likewise unknown, random
walk continues from the inner point.
A walk may meet more than one boundary with the set
heat flow before it stops at the point of the boundary with the
set temperature. Then, the temperature estimate is
mj
_ N
T (A) = (A) = Ti + Gij d ,
1
N
i=1 j=1
where mj shows how many times the i-th walk reaches the
boundary with the given gradient and Gij are the temperature
increments in a finite-difference approximation at the j-th time.
The accuracy of this solution is estimated as
1
N _ 2
( i)2
=
Var ()
= i = 1
(N
,
N 1)N
where Var() is the variance of .
Inasmuch as the circle can touch the boundary at one or
several points, the probability that the boundary is really
reached at each step is zero. Therefore, one has to assume a
nonzero probability of reaching some vicinity of the boundary.
This difficulty can be overcome in different ways (Powell et
al., 1988).
An important point is to choose a workable approach to
determine the maximum circle radius. It is found for each new
point at each random walk step. That is why the total
computing time depends on how fast is the computing for the
minimum distance from an inner point to a domain boundary.
 D.E. Ayunov and A.D. Duchkov / Russian Geology and Geophysics 49 (2008) 291296
Test example
The performance of the suggested algorithm was tested in
computing the vertical thermal gradient (heat flow) on the
surface of a plane slope. Lachenbruch (1968) reported the
exact analytical solution of this problem. See Fig. 2 for the
sketch of a 45 slope and the respective exact values of
normalized superficial thermal gradient according to Lachen-
bruch (1968). Statistical simulation was performed for the
same slope with a constant temperature at the top. To obtain
the temperature gradient immediately at the top, the predicted
temperature series was approximated by a polynomial. The
results were plotted as the normalized gradient G* = Gz = 0/Gd,
where Gd is the undisturbed deep thermal gradient and Gz=0
is the predicted superficial gradient (Fig. 2). The gradients
estimated by Monte-Carlo simulation agreed well with the
exact solution. The test example also showed extreme topo-
graphic disturbance of the temperature field at the slope
boundaries: it was minimum G* at the top and maximum G*
at the toe.
Results
Thus, we applied Monte-Carlo simulation to estimate the
topographic disturbance to heat flow data from two boreholes
(BDP-93 and BDP-96) in the lake and one borehole (L-2) on
the shore.
Model parameters. Topographic correction can be com-
puted using 2D elevation models along profiles that cross the
lake and run through the drilling sites, because Lake Baikal
has an elongate geometry. See Figures 3 and 4 for the
elevation model and the profile locations. The length of the
profiles was chosen to be under 60 km proceeding from the
fact that the main contribution to disturbance of deep thermal
gradients is from terrain within 10 km around the observation
site while the effect from areas at a distance more than 30 km
away is vanishing (Duchkov and Sokolova, 1974; Powell et
al, 1988). The model domain had its bottom at a depth of
1012 km, where we expected the topographic effect to be
negligible. For the lower boundary we assumed a steady
undisturbed thermal gradient Gd in a range of 2250 mK/m,
with its value depending on local conditions. Note that the Gd
value can be random in this case. The topography was
according to the digital bathymetric map of Lake Baikal
(Sherstyankin et al., 2003). Temperature at the top of the
model domain was assumed to be 3 C (real bottom water
temperature), invariable within the lake as far as the shoreline,
and to decrease away from the lake, with growing elevation,
at a gradient of 4 C/km (Duchkov and Sokolova, 1974).
Monte-Carlo statistics were used to predict temperature
variations in the upper 50 m of rocks along the profiles at
every 25 km and, on this basis, to calculate the vertical
geothermal gradient Gz at the surface and the topographic
correction = Gd /Gz (Fig. 4). At the drill sites, the tempera-
ture, thermal gradient, and correction estimates were obtained
293
Fig. 2. Variations of normalized thermal gradient on surface of a plane slope
(45), from exact solution by Lachenbruch (1968) (dots) and from Monte-Carlo
simulation (curve).
for greater depths. To account for the topographic disturbance,
one has to multiply the measured gradient G by the correction.
Boreholes BDP-93 and BDP-96. The BDP-93 borehole
was drilled at 523105 N, 106911 E, under 355 m of
water, in the Buguldeika Saddle and the BDP-96 site was
located in the Akademichesky Ridge at 534148 N,
1082106 E, where the lake depth is 320 m (Kuzmin et al.,
2001). Thermal logging was performed to a subbottom depth
of 100 m (Duchkov et al., 2001) using thermistor streamers
soon after the cessation of drilling. Temperature sampling was
for 300 hours in BDP-93 and 100 hours in BDP-96. The
measured temperatures were used to obtain thermal conduc-
tivity, thermal gradient, and heat flow estimates. The mean
thermal gradients and heat flows were, respectively,
414 mK/m and 535 mW/m2 in BDP-93 and 884 mK/m
and 783 mW/m2 in BDP-96. Both drilling sites were located
in relatively flat bottom areas but neighbored quite large and
sharp topographic features (Fig. 4, a, b): BDP-93 occurred
2 km far from the steep coastal slope and the BDP-96 site
of Akademichesky Ridge rose against deep basins.
Temperature variations were computed with Monte-Carlo
simulation for both boreholes from the surface to a depth of
240 m at every 30 m. The topographic correction was 0.97
for BDP-93 and 1.03 for BDP-96 at the lake bottom and still
less below the bottom. Thus, both corrections were within the
measurement accuracy in underwater boreholes (510%) and
no special account of topography was needed. The location of
the boreholes turned out to be good for geothermal measure-
ments.
We concluded that the 3% overestimation of Gz = 0 at
BDP-93 was caused by the effect of the steep slope and the
nearby mountains while the gradient at BDP-96 underesti-
mated for the same small value of 3% was due to the effect
from the surrounding basins.
However, with a different choice of borehole locations, the
disturbance to heat flow data would have been rather signifi-
294 D.E. Ayunov and A.D. Duchkov / Russian Geology and Geophysics 49 (2008) 291296

Fig. 3. Locations of boreholes BDP-93, BDP-96, and L-2 and thermal profiles.

Fig. 4. Variations of topography and respective corrections at near-surface depths. Plots of = Gd/Gz = 0 are along profiles through boreholes BDP-93 (a), BDP-96
(b), and L-2 (c). For locations of profiles see Fig. 3.

cant (Fig. 4, b). For instance, we obtained corrections of 0.75
at A1 (bottom low in the northern end of the Central Baikal
basin) and 1.35 at A2 (bottom high, southward extension of
the Svyatoi Nos Peninsula). Therefore, the thermal gradients
would be 25% overestimated in the former case and 35%
underestimated in the latter case.
Monte-Carlo simulation can be useful to correct for
topography the earlier shallow data measured with short
probes of 1 to 3 m on average (Duchkov et al., 1999; Golubev,
1982), but this will require a more detailed bathymetry.
Borehole L-2. The L-2 borehole was drilled in the early
1970-s at 5152 N, 10450 E on the Lake Baikal shore near
 D.E. Ayunov and A.D. Duchkov / Russian Geology and Geophysics 49 (2008) 291296 295

Table 1
Geothermal parameters measured in borehole L-2 (Lyubimova et al., 1975) and results of Monte-Carlo simulation for topographic disturbance

Depth, km Gz, mK/m = Gd /Gz G, mK/m Gcor = G, mK/m , W/(mK) Qcor = Gcor,
(Gd = 22 mK/m) mW/m2

0.10.2 17.5 1.26 22.5 28.4 2.18 62

0.20.3 17.7 1.24 22.0 27.3 2.18 60
0.30.4 17.6 1.25 22.0 27.5 2.22 61
0.40.5 18.1 1.22 22.0 26.8 2.23 60
0.50.6 17.7 1.24 22.5 27.9 2.32 65
0.60.7 18.3 1.20 22.5 27.0 2.34 62
0.70.8 18.4 1.20 22.5 27.0 2.26 61
0.80.9 18.3 1.20 22.5 27.0 2.22 60
0.91.0 18.8 1.17 22.5 26.3 2.22 58
1.01.1 19.4 1.13 22.4 25.3 2.26 57
2.03.0 20.2 1.09
3.04.0 20.9 1.05
4.05.0 21.2 1.04
5.06.0 21.43 1.03
Average 22.3 27.1 2.24 61

Note. Gz is predicted gradient, is correction, G is measured gradient, Gcor is gradient corrected for topography, is thermal conductivity of rocks, Qcor is
heat flow corrected for topography.

thermal gradient Gz was estimated in 100-m intervals down

the Angara outlet. It tapped the Archean granitic migmatite
and gneiss basement to a depth of 1163 m and was not exposed
to groundwater flow. The thermal conductivity of rocks ()
was measured in core samples in laboratory (Lyubimova et
al., 1974), and the respective weighted mean was estimated
to be 2.24 W/(mK) (Table 1). Different lithologies showed
non-systematic conductivity variations in quite a narrow range
of 2.0 to 2.5 W/(mK), which should not cause notable changes
to the deep gradient. Temperatures were measured by precise
electric thermometers after long post-drilling recovery (Lyu-
bimova et al., 1974). Thermal logging indicated a steady
temperature increase below 100 m at a mean gradient of
G = 22.3 mK/m (Table 1). The respective mean heat flow
was estimated at 50 mW/m2.
The steadiness of depthward thermal gradients appears
strange. The hole mouth occurs on the top and the bore in the
immediate vicinity of the steep lake slope. The setting
resembles the above test example (Fig. 2). Applying the
topographic correction showed that the thermal gradient was
30% underestimated ( = 1.3) at the drilling site on the surface
(Fig. 4, c). The same result was obtained by analytical
calculations using the method of Lachenbruch (1968). The
topographic disturbance decreased east of the site ( = 1 near
the middle of the slope) and then increased again but changed
the sign to make the measured gradient 25% overestimated
( = 0.75) at the slope toe, relative to the reference deep value
of Gd.
In order to gain a deeper insight into the effect of
topography on the L-2 temperature profile, we computed
temperature variations to a depth of 6 km, at every 50 m down
to 1100 m and at every 500 m below 1100 m. The respective
to 1100 m and in 1000-m intervals at depths of 2 to 6 km.
The topographic correction was found for the same intervals.
The simulation experiments indicated a disturbed tempera-
ture field all along the L-2 section (Table 1), the disturbance
being the greatest near the surface. At depths between 100
and 200 m, the measured thermal gradient was 26% lower
than the deep value. The effect of topography (the slope)
decreased with depth but very slowly, persisting at about 23%
( = 1.261.22) down to 900 m. It reduced notably below
1000 m and reached a negligible level (less than 5%) only
below 4 km. Thus it has become clear why the thermal
gradient was inferred to be invariable along L-2 drilled in the
vicinity of the steep lake slope: The topographic disturbance
is strong but remains approximately the same within the core
depth interval. The correction accuracy is 0.02.
The revised mean gradient corrected for topography is
27.1 mK/m between 100 and 1100 m, or 20% higher than the
measured value (Gcor = G). Correspondingly, the corrected
heat flow is over 60 W/m2 (Table 1). Corrected also for
climate instability associated with the Last Glacial (+30%,
according to (Lyubimova et al., 1974)), the steady-state heat
flow at L-2 may approach 7080 mW/m2. This is about the
magnitude derived from shallow measurements in the central
South Baikal basin east of L-2 (Duchkov et al., 1999; Golubev,
1982). The reliability of heat flow data from L-2 being of
special importance, it appears reasonable to repeat the proce-
dure for a 3D elevation model with a more complicated model
domain including details of deep structure and time-dependent
variations of surface temperature.
296 D.E. Ayunov and A.D. Duchkov / Russian Geology and Geophysics 49 (2008) 291296
Conclusions
We designed and implemented a fast Monte-Carlo simula-
tion algorithm for the temperature field in a block of crust
with a rugged topography and variable temperatures on the
surface. The algorithm was tested on a plane-slope model and
used to predict the topographic disturbance of thermal gradi-
ents at the drilling sites BDP-93 and BDP-96 in Lake Baikal
and L-2 on its western shore. The effect of topography turned
out to be negligible even near the surface at underwater sites
but quite strong at L-2 drilled on the shore near the steep lake
slope. The measured thermal gradient over the upper 1 km of
rocks at L-2 was about 20% underestimated. It became clear
that the earlier inferred steadiness of the thermal gradient
along the L-2 log was due to very small variations in both
thermal conductivity of rocks and topographic disturbance.
The heat flow at L-2 corrected for topography increased from
50 to 60 mW/m2 and may be still higher (7080 mW/m2) with
regard to an additional climate correction (Lyubimova et al.,
1974).
Earlier shallow measurements with short probes indicated
a low heat flow of 4050 mW/m2 in the narrow western part
of the South Baikal basin. However, the revised heat flow data
from L-2 cast doubt on the commonly accepted idea that the
western boundary of the Baikal heat flow anomaly lies in the
lake. One may expect the true heat flow in the western Baikal
region to be as high as in the central Baikal rift, taking into
account the lowering effect of topography and groundwater
dynamics on surface thermal gradients (heat flow). Thus, it
will be reasonable to continue the study of topographic
disturbance both in the vicinity of L-2 and at the lake bottom
using a 3D elevation model.
As we demonstrated, Monte-Carlo simulation is applicable
to geothermal modeling for variations of temperature and
thermal gradients in complexly structured crustal blocks.
Another possible application of the approach may be to the
evolution of crustal temperature field affected by thermal
conductivity variations and 3D sources of radiogenic heat.
We wish to thank A.A. Duchkov, L.S. Sokolova, M.A. Fe-
dorin, and P.P. Sherstyankin for interest to our study, helpful
discussions and constructive criticism.
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Editorial responsibility: M.I. Epov