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Morning News Notes: 2010-07-12
Morning News Notes: 2010-07-12
Morning News Notes: 2010-07-12
• BP took one step back Saturday in order to take two steps forward in its struggle to tame the
gushing Macondo oil well at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico, removing a cap that was catching some
of the oil in the hopes of replacing it with one that would capture most or all of the leaking crude. – WP
• The global economy has exited recession and returned to growth, with emerging market
economies outperforming their developed counterparts. However, many analysts worry that the waning
of stimulus effects and other weakening growth drivers could keep growth below potential this year. In
July 2010, the IMF revised up its forecast of global growth to 4.6% in 2010 from the 4.2% it expected in
April, reflecting upward revisions in the U.S., Japan and many emerging market economies. The revisions
reflected stronger‐than‐expected growth in H1 2010, but the institution noted that "downside risks have
risen sharply amid renewed financial turbulence. In this context, the new forecasts hinge on
implementation of policies to rebuild confidence and stability, particularly in the euro area." As such, it
left its forecast for 2011 unchanged at 4.3%. – RGE Monitor
• China import/export #s ‐ China’s June exports rose better‐than‐expected at 43.9%oya
China Export Trade YoY% (10 Years)
• Wall St firms are picking up the hiring pace, anticipating a strong rebound – NYT
• White House considering a review of the business regulations that corporate leaders have
complained inhibit job creation (WSJ)
• Obama – taxes + labor laws more important for the outlook than stimulus vs. austerity debate –
Washington Post argues that it is the maze of new labor regs and all the tax uncertainty that has caused
business decision making to freeze – Washington Post
• Mark Cuban is making another run at buying a baseball team, joining a group of bidders eying
the Texas Rangers – NY Post
• The WSJ says correlation between the S&P 500 and its component stocks has spiked to the
highest level since the 1987 crash. This is worrisome, because it effectively means the market has
settled on no safe sector or company. When the index drops, it all drops. Some analysts worry this
means the market is particularly vulnerable, the paper says. – FTN Financial
Sector Correlations to the S&P 500
1
0.8
Recession
0.6
Staples
0.4
Materials
0.2
Diescretionary
0
Energy
‐0.2 Health
‐0.4 Financial
‐0.6 Industrials
‐0.8 Telecom
‐1 IT
1/3/1992
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1/3/2010
Utility
Coincidentally, I recently ran sector correlations to the S&P 500 (GICS sectors, weekly frequency, rolling
120 periods) and the tentative conclusion I reached is that higher correlations alone indicate
little/nothing about equity direction. Note the high correlations starting in 1995‐1996, the beginning of
a fantastic bull market. While this is a slightly different analysis than what WSJ did, the spirit of the
investigation is the same.
High correlations have obvious implications for diversification, but note the divergence at the onset and
throughout troubled times in the market (primarily in the early 90’s, early 2000’s, less so in 2008). Keep
in mind, this is looking at correlations among sectors within US equities, not correlations among various
asset classes. One of the many lessons of 2008 is that many supposed non‐correlated asset classes
behave very much like equities, particularly in times of stress.
That’s enough for now, but I would love to discuss more with anyone interested. Let me know if you
want the data.