Climate Change in the Willimantic

River Peak Flow Data

Alex Bohr
1/19/16
APES
1932 - 1972:

Rank Year T Q AEP

1 1955 42 24,200 0.02
2 1938 21 15,500 0.05
3 1936 14 7,880 0.07
4 1934 10.5 4,420 0.1
5 1970 8.4 4,270 0.12
6 1940 7 3,400 0.14
7 1972 6 3,370 0.17
8 1954 5.3 3,100 0.19
9 1956 4.7 2,990 0.21
10 1960 4.2 2,950 0.24
11 1968 3.8 2,860 0.26
12 1959 3.5 2,840 0.29
13 1941 3.2 2,660 0.31
14 1967 3 2,360 0.33
15 1953 2.8 2,300 0.36
16 1948 2.6 2,240 0.38
17 1951 2.5 2,240 0.4
18 1935 2.3 2,220 0.43
19 1944 2.2 2,120 0.45
20 1939 2.1 2,100 0.48
21 1961 2 2,060 0.5
22 1943 1.9 2,040 0.52
23 1969 1.8 2,020 0.55
24 1942 1.8 1,880 0.57
25 1952 1.7 1,800 0.6
26 1937 1.6 1,660 0.62
27 1945 1.6 1,510 0.64
 28 1958 1.5 1,450 0.67
29 1957 1.4 1,420 0.69
30 1963 1.4 1,360 0.71
31 1962 1.4 1,320 0.74
32 1964 1.3 1,290 0.76
33 1933 1.3 1,260 0.79
34 1932 1.2 1,160 0.81
35 1949 1.2 1,070 0.83
36 1947 1.2 1,020 0.86
37 1946 1.1 945 0.88
38 1966 1.1 932 0.9
39 1965 1.1 860 0.93
40 1950 1.1 838 0.95
41 1971 1 728 0.98

1973 - 2013:

Rank Year T Q AEP

1 2006 42 12,400 0.02
2 1982 21 6,480 0.05
3 2011 14 5,440 0.07
4 1984 10.5 5,160 0.1
5 1979 8.4 5,110 0.12
6 1978 7 4,980 0.14
7 1974 6 4,470 0.17
8 1987 5.3 3,980 0.19
9 1996 4.7 3,960 0.21
10 1998 4.2 3,940 0.24
11 2009 3.8 3,860 0.26
12 2007 3.5 3,790 0.29
13 1983 3.2 3,750 0.31
14 2008 3 3,700 0.33
15 1973 2.8 3,560 0.36
16 1976 2.6 3,470 0.38
17 1990 2.5 3,430 0.4
18 1993 2.3 3,370 0.43
19 2010 2.2 3,220 0.45
20 2013 2.1 2,760 0.48
21 2000 2 2,700 0.5
22 1975 1.9 2,690 0.52
23 1986 1.8 2,670 0.55
24 1989 1.8 2,640 0.57
25 2012 1.7 2,470 0.6
26 2004 1.6 2,360 0.62
27 1980 1.6 2,210 0.64
28 2001 1.5 2,200 0.67
29 1997 1.4 2,190 0.69
30 2005 1.4 2,110 0.71
31 1994 1.4 2,030 0.74
32 1977 1.3 1,890 0.76
33 1981 1.3 1,730 0.79
34 1999 1.2 1,730 0.81
35 1991 1.2 1,700 0.83
36 2003 1.2 1,620 0.86
37 1995 1.1 1,350 0.88
38 1992 1.1 1,250 0.9
39 1988 1.1 1,160 0.93
40 2002 1.1 1,070 0.95
41 1985 1 882 0.98
Analysis:
1. According to the data and the graph, the recurrence interval of peak flow events do not
show that extreme events are more frequent after 1972. The data does show that there are
more extreme storms, but less of them. This is contradicted in an article on climate
change, Extreme Weather Swings from Record Drought to Flood May Be Sign of
Climate Change, published in the Huffington Post. They state that according to a draft
federal climate assessment released in 2012, heavy precipitation events in the U.S. have
increased during the past half-century (Huffington Post). Though, this can be proved
wrong, as the data from the Willimantic River show that extreme weather events have
decreased in numbers in the past half-century.

2. The annual exceedance probability has changed over the past 70 years. According to the
data, the extreme events are less frequent and average events are slightly higher in
occurrence. Between 1932 and 1972, there was a lot more storms in the average category
and extreme category. Though, with climate change, between 1972 and 2013, the storms
are less frequent. The annual exceedance probability has fluctuated over the past 70
years, going up into .9 and all the way back to zero.

3. There is a noticeable change in peak flow discharge rates. In the data, the graph, the past
40 years show that the peak flow has increased for the storms that do occur, as they are
less frequent also. In the beginning of the century, the storms were more frequent, but
had lower peak flow rates. Towards the end of the century and into the 21st century, the
storms are less frequent, but contain a higher peak flow rate. So, this would show a
noticeable change in peak flow data over the past 70 years.

4. This data suggests about the climate change in Connecticut is that this state will
experience less frequent storms, whether extreme or average, but when they do occur,
they will be harder and more intense.