CH 3

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Chapter 3

IMPACT OF RUPEE APPRECIATION ON INDIAS EXPORT


(WITH SPECIAL FOCUS ON LABOUR INTENSIVE SECTORS)

Indian exports enjoyed the advantage of slow of how Indian Rupee got appreciated in recent
depreciation of currency during the period of mid- times.
2005 to mid-2006. Rupee showed a turn around
since August 2006. In terms of Real Effective Rupee got depreciated during July to October
Exchange Rate (REER), it rose steadily between 2005 and then February to August 2006. In Rupee
August to November 2006 and slipped slightly terms, monthly exports grew by 51% and in US
thereafter. From March 2007 onwards, Rupee Dollar terms monthly exports growth rate was
experienced a rise in its value. As per REER 41% during this period July to October 2005. In
(Graph 3.1), rupee has appreciated by almost 8% the entire period of 2005-06, exports grew by
during March to May 2007. Appreciation was 23.44% in US Dollar terms and touched US $ 103
much higher against US Dollar compared to Euro. billion. In terms of Rupee, growth was around
Another round of appreciation is visible between 21.6% and total exports in 2005-06 were Rs.4.6
August-October 2007, which has been relatively trillion. During the period 2006-07, Indias
mild. REER provides the trade weighted average exports grew almost by 22.5% in US Dollar terms
change in exchange rate vis--vis major and total exports reached to US$ 126 billion. In
currencies. Hence, the appreciation rate as Rupee terms, growth was 25.3% and total exports
reflected in REER provides a combined picture were Rs.5.7 trillion. Impact of changing values

Graph 3.1

39
of currency on exports has not been significant terms. Slowing down of import growth in 2007
during 2005-06 and 2006-07 as both the periods has been mainly because of less growth in POL
were marked by appreciation as well as import. This has proved that Indias import has
depreciation of currency which played an overall not increased significantly despite the fact that
neutralizing role. Moreover, impact of Indian rupee has appreciated significantly in
appreciation of Rupee on exports requires at least recent months. In fact, slowing down of import
four to six months time to get realized. growth rate implies that Indias import is less
elastic with respect to exchange rate.
Since April 2007, as there has been sharp rise in
the value of Rupee, there is a severe impact on Currency Appreciation and Export Value:
the export growth rate (Table 3.1). The cumulative Recent Experience
exports during the period April-October in 2005
was US $ 57 billion (Rs. 2.5 trillion) which In 2006-07, India witnessed large trade deficits
increased to US $ 71 billion and (Rs.3.2 trillion) to the tune of US $ 65 billion and current account
in April-October of 2006 registering a growth rate deficit was as high as US $ 10 billion. The level
of almost 24.4% in US Dollar terms (30% in of trade deficit should have been enough to
Rupee terms). The cumulative exports during depreciate the rupee, as supposed in traditional
April-October of 2007 have been US $ 85.5 billion exchange rate theories. However, interest rate cuts
(Rs.3.5 trillion). In US Dollar term the growth by the US Federal Reserve led to higher inflow
was around 21% but in Rupee terms the growth of portfolio investments into the country resulting
declined to only 7% implying a serious blow in in unprecedented and continuous rupee
terms of rupee realization of Indian exports. appreciation. Foreign portfolio investment
recorded an inflow of US $ 20.7 billion during
In case of imports, cumulative value of imports April-July 2007. FDI inflow was also significantly
for the period April-October, 2007 was US $ 130 high and recorded US $ 6.6 billion during April-
billion (Rs. 5.3 trillion) as against US$ 103.7 July 2007 (US $ 3.7 billion in April-July 2006).
billion (Rs. 4.8 trillion) registering a growth of Large inflow reflects expansion of domestic
25.31% in Dollar terms and 11.07% in Rupee activities, positive investment climate, and
terms during the same period of 2006. The import positive view towards India as a long-term
growth rate for the same period in 2006 over 2005 investment destination. All these have raised an
was 26% in US Dollar terms and 32% in Rupee upward pressure on Indian Rupee (INR).
Table 3.1

Indias Exports vsi-a-vis Exchange Rates

Indias Exports to World Average Value


Period (Rs. Million) (US $ Million) Rs. Per Euro Rs. Per US $
Apr-Oct 2005 2,494,969 56,928 54.09 43.81
Apr-Oct 2006 3,250,912 70,838 58.03 45.86
Apr-Oct 2007 3,477,939 85,583 55.73 40.68
Source: Calculated from India Trades, CMIE

40
Impact of Rupee Appreciation on Indias Export

Rupee depreciated steadily for a decade after being On the other hand, though the Indian Rupee
floated in 1993, dropping from an average annual appreciated against Euro, Pound Sterling and
rate of Rs. 31.37 per US Dollar in the 1993-94 fiscal Yen also, the rate of appreciation has been much
year (April-March) to Rs. 48.40 per US Dollar in lower. Moreover, the upward rallying of rupee
2002-03 (an average annual depreciation of nearly against these currencies more or less leveled
5%). From 2003-04 to 2005-06, however, the rupee off since May 2007, though there have been
appreciated against the US Dollar by 3% on average high fluctuations in weekly movements.
a year. But the rate of appreciation of Indian Rupee Against Euro, Indian Rupee shows a slight but
has been unprecedentedly high from July 2006 till steady depreciation from July onwards. The
date, falling by about 16.3 % (46.97 to 39.25 per trend of exchange rate vis--vis US Dollar and
US Dollar). The average rupee-US dollar rate in Euro is given in Table 3.2 and Graph 3.2 and
November 2007 was the lowest since 1999-2000. 3.3 below.
Table 3.2
Indias Exchange Rate
US dollar Euro
Exchange rate Change (%) Exchange rate Change (%)
2006-07 2007-08 2006-07 2007-08 2006-07 2007-08 2006-07 2007-08
April 44.9 42.2 1.4 -4.0 55.2 57.0 3.4 -2.2
May 45.4 40.7 1.1 -3.5 58.0 55.1 4.8 -3.3
June 46.0 40.8 1.3 0.2 58.3 54.7 0.5 -0.7
July 46.0 40.8 1.0 -0.9 59.0 55.4 1.2 1.2
August 46.5 40.8 0.1 1.0 59.6 55.6 1.0 0.4
September 46.1 40.3 -0.8 -1.2 58.8 56.0 -1.4 0.7
October 45.5 39.5 -1.3 -1.9 57.4 56.2 -2.4 0.3
November 44.9 -1.3 57.8 0.7
December 44.6 -0.7 59.0 2.1
January 44.3 -0.7 57.7 -2.2
February 44.2 -0.2 57.7 0.0
March 44.0 0.4 58.3 0.7
Source: Reserve Bank of India
Graph 3.2

Source: Monthly exchange rate available in India Trades, CMIE and RBI

41
Graph 3.3

Source: Monthly exchange rate available in India Trades, CMIE and RBI

The current upward rallying of Rupee evidently of exports. The monthly average growth rate
is a natural outcome of Indias robust economic during the same period of 2005 was 2.07% in US
growth over the last decade. With low interest Dollar (2.15% in Rupee). However, during 2007,
rates in US, India and other emerging markets are though exports were growing but decline in
becoming increasingly attractive as an investment growth rate is very much visible. In the period
destination for US and other countries. As more April-September of 2007, Indian exports grew by
and more Dollar flows to India, its supply exceeds 3% per month in US Dollar and in terms of Rupee
demand and result in depreciation against Indian the rate was 2.15%. Lower growth rate in rupee
Rupee. As most of Indias trade is through US terms compared to US Dollar shows that due to
Dollar, continuous appreciation of Indian Rupee appreciation, the export income in Rupee is
against US Dollar has a significant impact on slowing down.
exports. Exports through Euro were unable to
balance the loss incurred in exports earning The growth of Indias exports in 2006 was both
through US Dollar. due to fast growth of world exports as well as due
to its depreciated currency. In 2006, according
Graph 3.4 below explains the dynamics of Indias to WTO, world export growth was around 8%.
export growth. Export values in terms both Export growth may slow down to 6% in 2007 due
Rupees and US Dollar are described in the to moderate deceleration of World economic
diagram. Rupee values are measured on the left growth. Hence, slowing down of Indian exports
hand vertical axis and values in US Dollar in right is also partially due to slow down of world
hand axis. The average monthly growth demand in 2007 and not completely due to Rupee
(calculated through CAGR) of exports during appreciation. Also it is important to note many
April-September in 2006 was 4.54% in US Dollar other currencies have shown the tendency of
(5.08% in Rupee terms). Higher growth in Rupee appreciation (Graph 3.5) and as a result
terms compared to US Dollar implies the competitive disadvantage of Indian exports due
advantage of depreciated currency in realization to appreciated currency have also partially

42
Impact of Rupee Appreciation on Indias Export

neutralized. Some of these countries have given value was due to this price effect. As the world
extra thrust in increasing productivity and perhaps inflation slows down, the extent of price effect
India is loosing its advantage due to that. The rise will also come down in the export market. This
in world merchandise exports in 2006 was also might have contributed to slow down of Indias
due to global inflation. Almost 40% of exports export growth also.

Graph 3.4

Source: Monthly exchange rate available in India Trades, CMIE and RBI

Graph 3.5
Dollar changes vis--vis selected major currencies, 2001-2006
(Indices, January 2001=100)

a. Trade weighted currency basket of the Korean won, the Singapore dollar and Chinese Taipei dollar.
Source : http ://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres07_e/pr472_e.htm

43
Effect on Labour Intensive Exports of production both in the export units as well
as in the input sector. An analysis of this is
Rupee appreciation affects different sectors, given in Table 3.3.
differently. High-import intensity sectors like
automobiles, petroleum products, gems and If the input sector is labour intensive and export
jewellery, fare better in face of a stronger units use largely imported inputs, employment in
rupee as appreciation renders their imported input sector will get the hit as they will be replaced
inputs to a lower value. However, the by cheap foreign inputs. This implies that even
appreciating rupee could significantly erode though high import-intensity sectors benefit from
net profit margin of low-import intensity the appreciating rupee it does not necessarily mean
sectors like textiles and leather, as exporters that in the longer run the economy, as a whole,
of these sectors remain in a disadvantageous will be benefited.
position especially in price sensitive
international markets. Many of the low-import Continued rupee appreciation could have a long
intensity sectors also operate with very low lasting impact on employment as most low
margins, making them feel the heat of rupee import-intensity sectors are highly labour-
appreciation more. The impact on employment intensive and they lay off labour quickly as rupee
is also directly related to the factor intensity appreciation erodes their profitability. Also
Table 3.3

Impact of Rupee Appreciation on Exports and Employment

Characteristic of Exports Output/Exports Employment


High intensity in use of Rupee Appreciation will In these sectors employment in export units
imported inputs in reduce the import cost of may not get hurt but downstream input
production inputs. These sectors must sector may have the pinch.If the sector
be able to partially/fully uses inputs which are based on labour
neutralize the effect of intensive technology, high import of
appreciation in export inputs will negatively affect the
market employment as well as production of
import-competing input sectors. If the
sector uses capital intensive production,
there will be less severe effect on
employment
Low intensity in use of Rupee appreciation will These sectors will receive maximum jolt.
imported inputs in make these sectors un- As export demand goes down, induced
production competitive unless demand of inputs will also come down.
deflationary pressure Employment will be hard hit if the sector
reduces the cost of uses labour intensive technology.
production sufficiently.

44
Impact of Rupee Appreciation on Indias Export

employment in import-competing industries may trend continues, by March 2008, the total job
get hit later on. Job losses were already reported losses may exceed 2 million.
in certain sectors, such as textiles and leather. The
strain on the labour market became visible ever A limited survey conducted by the Regional
since last year when number of registered job Authorities under DGFT covering 83 units
seekers in the country shot up by more than 2 including leather, textiles, engineering, plastics,
million to 41 million. Significantly, the increase marine products, pharmaceuticals, chemicals,
came after two consecutive years of decline in agriculture and food processing, electronics and
registered work applicants. handicrafts and carpets has shown a job loss of
20,769 between April-November 2007.
The software exports sector also gets affected by
the long-march of rupee. Indian IT companies Impact on Textile Sector
derive a large share of their revenues from the
US and a strengthening rupee erodes their Textile is an important sector in Indias export
margins. Software industry body NASSCOM basket. This sector has negligible use of imported
contends that there has been too much rupee inputs and is employer of large number of people
appreciation in too short a time, making small in India. Rupee appreciation has indicated loss in
and medium IT companies to be the hardest hit. export growth both in textile as well as in
Industry sources state that a one per cent rise in readymade garment (RMG) sector. Graph 3.6 and
the rupee value would affect bottom-line of the 3.7 provides trend picture of exports from this two
IT and BPO sectors by 30 to 40 basis points. sectors. A comparison between April-June in 2006
and 2007 reveals that textile sector exports
While the full impact of the negative growth on dropped by 0.66% in terms US Dollar (by 10.13%
employment will be assessed by the end of the in rupee terms). The decline in RMG exports has
financial year, the reports from industry and trade been more severe. The exports fell by 4.21% in
associations and exporters indicate that if this US Dollar terms and by 13.19% in Rupee terms.
Graph 3.6

Source: Calculated from Principal Commodity Exports, India Trades,


CMIE

45
At product level, steep decline is observed in case September, exports have increased. However, in
of cotton apparels which have share of 80% in rupee terms export grew only by 4.84% (in US
total apparel exports. In case of woven category, Dollar terms by 16%) implying erosion at the time
decline in exports are also observed. RMG exports of realization of exports in Rupee.
fell by more than 10% in USA market which
comprises of 31% of the market and by only 4% Over 65% of leather exports are invoiced in US
in EU market having share of 45% of total RMG Dollar. The problem is compounded as most of
exports. Clothing sector is highly labour intensive. the Indian exporters cater to the lower end of the
An investment of Rs.100 million generates 500 global market where penetration is directly
direct and 200 indirect jobs. Around 5.8 million depended on the price lines offered by the
people are engaged in apparel industry. Due to exporters. Moreover, several American Brands
slowing down of the export growth, employment operating in Europe prefers to trade with US
generation will be mere 12% of what has been Dollar than Euro and hence leather exporters are
targeted. In fact in many sub categories, job losses unable to switch to euro to shield their losses. The
are already reported. It is estimated that for every manufacturing units in the leather sector are more
percentage point of appreciation, profitability of or less compartmentalized as one serving the
exports in textile sector is hit by 1.2%. global markets and the other domestic markets.
In view of this arrangement, exporters have no
Impact on Leather Sector set up or experience to sell their products in the
domestic markets. Thus, when the rupee
Graph 3.8 below shows that leather exports have appreciated almost to 12% in a shorter time
fallen mainly at the beginning of the year, which exporters had no other alternative but to start
may be due to early appreciation during the reducing their production and think in terms of
October to January period. During April- lay off of the employees.

Graph 3.7

Source: Calculated from Principal Commodity Exports, India Trades,


CMIE

46
Impact of Rupee Appreciation on Indias Export

Graph 3.8

Source: Calculated from Principal Commodity Exports, India Trades,


CMIE

Leather exports are significantly dependant on upward trend since mid 2006. There was big drop
orders from the foreign buyers. Accordingly most in exports in November 2006, February and April
of the employment offered by the sector is either 2007. Details of this are described in Graph 3.9
unorganized or in form of contract employment. below. The sector has experienced a rising export
Due to the current Rupee appreciation, exporters trend during the period April-June 2007.
are unable to negotiate prices with big buyers Comparing the same period in 2006, exports in
which resulted into smaller orders and this in-turn 2007 has grown by 27% in US Dollar terms and
has caused loss of employment to the people 15% in terms of Rupee. However, exports in
working on contract basis or in unorganized Rupee having relatively slower growth imply
sector. More than 94% of the manufacturing units that sector is not immune from the rupee
serving the export markets are either small or appreciation despite having high import
medium sized ones. These units operate on thin intensity. This is mainly due to the fact that
margins and depend heavily on own funds for exporters were unable to neutralize risk
working capital as access to institutional finance considering a forward contract. As rupee has
is cumbersome or need collaterals. When the appreciated after the contract has been signed,
export realization has reduced, it not only wiped exporters lost in terms of actual value received.
out the margins but also reduced the working The industry is significantly driven by SME
capital. This led most of the exporters in to a players who operate on a thin margin of 3-6%.
vicious cycle of debt-low productivity. Loss in realization of export values while
converting into rupee has eroded their margin
Impact on Gems and Jewellery significantly. The industry requires large
working capital in view stocking of important
The sector is highly labour intensive but at the raw materials and finished goods. Erosion of
same time import intensity is equally high. export earnings has also created a strain in terms
Exports in this sector have produced spikes with of availability of working capital.

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Graph 3.9

Source: Calculated from Principal Commodity Exports, India Trades, CMIE

Impact on Handicrafts Sector (Excluding around US $ 110 million (Rs.5017 million) and it
Handmade Carpets) dropped to mere US $ 64 million (Rs.2610 million)
during April-June 2007 reflecting a major erosion
Handicrafts are highly labour intensive products but of export income both in terms of Indian Rupee and
pricing of handicrafts are difficult to explain by US Dollar. It is also important to mention that due
market forces completely. The intrinsic values of to the time gap between contract, delivery and
handicrafts are such that price depends on many non- payment, exporters are bound to have been affected
market issues. The export market of handicrafts as Rupee appreciated so sharply within such a short
products is a reflection of this. Graph 3.10 below time. As large numbers of rural and poor artisans
explains the fluctuating trend of Indian handicrafts are dependant on handicrafts products and most of
exports. It dropped significantly in July 2006 and the time they do not have fixed wages and they sell
rose again in September and fell thereafter. The their products at piece-rate, any short fall in the
cumulative exports during April-June 2006 were export market affects them severely.

Graph 3.10

Source: Calculated from Principal Commodity Exports, India Trades, CMIE

48
Impact of Rupee Appreciation on Indias Export

Other sectors such as engineering goods, forest Passbook Scheme do not take care of
products, sports goods, chemical products agro neutralization on account of State taxes like octroi,
products such as tea, rubber, coffee, etc. are also mandi tax, electricity tax, etc. which is another
affected by rupee appreciation but the degree of contributing factor to the slowdown in export
injury is varying. growth. While re-imbursement of inputs services
used in manufacture of export products is possible
Other Contributory Factor to the through CEVAT route, there is no mechanism for
Slowdown in Export Growth reimbursement of post-production export-related
activities/ services obtained like service tax paid
Infrastructure bottlenecks acts as additional to foreign countries, inland haulage charges,
contributory factor to the slowdown in export commission paid to agents etc. thus adversely
growth. The high power costs and the erratic and affecting the competitiveness of Indian exports.
inadequate supply of electronic power have The small manufacturers who are either in non-
adversely affected the competitiveness of Indian excisable sectors or are exempted from purview
exporters especially of small and medium of excise duty have to bear incidence of service
enterprises. The Indian ports take a turn round tax paid during course of exports. This makes their
time of 3-5 days as against only 4-6 hours at other products unproductive. Though there is a
international ports like Singapore and Hong Kong. provision of refund under the VAT Act, which
As far as internal transport is concerned, the came into effect from 1st April 2005, the refund
secondary roads and inter-state checkpoints are mechanism is yet to be operationalised in most of
still needed to be improved further. Time taken the States and exporters are facing problems on
for transportation of goods from the production this account.
centres to the port of export is an important factor
in determining the cost of transaction. Due to Government Initiative and Strategy
various provisions governing inter-State Options
movement, lot of time is wasted at the intra-State
and inter-State checkpoints/ borders while good Dr. C. Rangarajan, Chairman of the Economic
are moved through road transportation. With the Advisory Council to the Prime Minister has been
growth of trade and increase in number of requested by the Prime Ministers Office to look
consignments, there is a need not only for into and offer suggestions on the measures sought
improved trade infrastructure facilities to by the Department of Commerce for mitigating
international standards but also for streamlining the adverse effect on the exports arising out of
trade data infrastructure to remove any data the appreciation of the rupee. The National
anomalies and provide the basis for appropriate Manufacturing Competitiveness Council
policy formulation. (NMCC), headed by the Dr. V. Krishnamurthy
has been directed by the Prime Ministers Office
Full neutralization of taxes needs to be ensured to further examine the measures and make
so that Indian exports do not become appropriate recommendations to the competent
uncompetitive in the international market. The authority for necessary implementation.
present system of neutralization of taxes through
the Duty Drawback and Duty Entitlement As Indias exports are getting affected,

49
government of India has also taken several steps l Separate export working capital fund which
to neutralize the effect of rupee appreciation. will be available to Bank at a cheaper rate
Government announced a package in July 2007 etc.
which is mainly in the form of providing several
incentives to exporters and enhancing some of the RBI also has taken up several monetary policy
existing ones. The package includes enhancing measures which have some impact on the system
of DEPB rates, duty drawback rates, decrease of especially on the value of Rupee. On July 31
ECGC premium, pre and post shipment credit 2007, RBI raised the cash reserve ratio by 50 basis
interest rate, etc. To clear all arrears of terminal points, to 7% in order to drain liquidity from the
excise duties and CST reimbursement, an amount system and thereby to handle inflation. At the
of around Rs.6000 million has been released by same time it lowered the amount of money raised
the Ministry. The government has also announced from external commercial borrowing that can be
the exemption of Service Tax paid on post converted into rupees. It is expected that this will
production export of goods. The exemption is reduce the capital inflow and dampen the pace of
allowed on some taxable services, which are not Rupee appreciation. Central Banks of other
in the nature of input services but could be countries where domestic currencies have been
linked to export goods. However, some exporters appreciating also take similar steps. The whole
are of the opinion that this incentive may be range of instruments include direct sterilisation
extended to service tax paid by exporters to through issuance of government or central bank
foreign agents, movement of goods from factory bonds, increases in reserve requirements, and
to port/ICDs, on bank charges etc. different means of capital account management
to manage the monetary impact of excess forex
Apart from this, RBI has also announced to flows.
provide interest subvention of 2 percentage points
per annum to all scheduled commercial banks in Firms are also required to handle their foreign
respect of rupee export credit to the specified exchange with due care. As India is gradually
categories of exporters mainly which have labour getting integrated with the world economy,
intensive production technique and less import currency volatility will become a normal affair.
intensity in terms of input use. It is important to mention that firms are enjoying
several incentives for quite sometime but there is
Several organizations have also provided a big question about converting these incentives
suggestion to government and currently they are into productivity gain. Loss due to currency
being studied. Some of the suggestions are as appreciation may partly be neutralized with lower
follows: cost of production emerging from higher
l Funds in EEFC account may have the interest productivity. Within industry also, the effect of
rates at par FCNR rupee appreciation varies among firms. More
productive firms can absorb the loss in a better
l Separate refund mechanism for state level way. Also, due to volatile currency market, firms
taxes need to learn sophisticated methods of risk
l Introduction of EXIM Scrips management.

50
Impact of Rupee Appreciation on Indias Export

Short term strategies of firms will be to use forex strategy taking into account the anticipated
derivatives like forward contracts, options swaps exchange rate changes. Appreciation of rupee will
and futures. Use of derivatives ensures the profit adversely effect allocation of funds for such
margins for cash inflows or outflows of foreign activities as compared to their competitors in
currency business transactions. Forwards are very international markets. Cost reduction will help
useful for exporters especially in case of US Dollar to maintain promotional budget for business
has premium for forward values and is development.
depreciating against Rupee. Exporters may use
forward contract to switch the invoice currency Long term strategy of firm must focus on
into strong currencies by paying nominal charges protection of foreign market shares, updating the
without bothering the foreign buyer to change the product to reduce price sensitivity, making
invoice currency. attempts for brand development and broaden the
markets. Companies have to respond to exchange
Medium Term strategies mostly cover operational risk by altering their product strategy covering
efficiency to hedge currency risk. Such approach product innovation and new product introduction
covers internal matching of exposures by netting based on R&D. Constant improvement in product
currency assets and liabilities, currency risk by following creative destruction of old product
sharing clause in sale & contract, structured is required for survival during the time of strong
financial deal to reduce cost of borrowing etc. rupee scenario. Quality of the product and service
Analysis of cost portfolio is also essential. In the must be of world-class to win trust of overseas
medium term, firms must start looking into the buyers. Companies also need to allocate sufficient
issues related to value addition of products and funds to train employees about nuances of
not just the cost arbitrage Exporter while international business environment including risk
considering a market entry, develops promotional management.

51
ANNEXURE

Source: Calculated from Principal Commodity Exports, India Trades,


CMIE

Source: Calculated from Principal Commodity Exports, India Trades,


CMIE

52
Impact of Rupee Appreciation on Indias Export

Source: Calculated from Principal Commodity Exports, India Trades, CMIE

Processed Foods include processed fruits and juices, Processed vegetables Meat
& Preparations and miscellaneous processed items
Source: Calculated from Principal Commodity Exports, India Trades, CMIE

53

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