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    Series 1: Forecast - Exponential Smoothing Selected Forecast Date Daily Weekly Monthly

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    afif12
    This document contains daily temperature readings from December 16, 2016 to February 18, 2017. It provides the actual recorded temperatures along with fitted values forecasted by a model. There are temperature readings for each day of the week over this time period. The temperatures range from the high 30s to low 140s (degrees Fahrenheit).

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    Series 1: Forecast - Exponential Smoothing Selected Forecast Date Daily Weekly Monthly

    Uploaded by

    afif12
    16 views4 pages
    This document contains daily temperature readings from December 16, 2016 to February 18, 2017. It provides the actual recorded temperatures along with fitted values forecasted by a model. There are temperature readings for each day of the week over this time period. The temperatures range from the high 30s to low 140s (degrees Fahrenheit).

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    Attemp 2

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    This document contains daily temperature readings from December 16, 2016 to February 18, 2017. It provides the actual recorded temperatures along with fitted values forecasted by a model. There are temperature readings for each day of the week over this time period. The temperatures range from the high 30s to low 140s (degrees Fahrenheit).

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    16 views4 pages

    Series 1: Forecast - Exponential Smoothing Selected Forecast Date Daily Weekly Monthly

    Uploaded by

    afif12
    This document contains daily temperature readings from December 16, 2016 to February 18, 2017. It provides the actual recorded temperatures along with fitted values forecasted by a model. There are temperature readings for each day of the week over this time period. The temperatures range from the high 30s to low 140s (degrees Fahrenheit).

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    of 4

    Series 170

    79
    77
    72
    81 Date
    Mon,
    Tue,
    Wed,
    Thu,
    Fri, Dec
    Dec
    Dec
    Dec 16 12
    13
    14
    15 Forecast of SerieFitted
    2016
    2016
    2016
    2016 Values
    76.69394015
    77.385758105
    77.270030673
    75.089021471
    74.16231503
    80
    83
    85
    80
    74
    67 Sat,
    Sun,
    Mon,
    Tue,
    Wed,
    Thu, Dec
    Dec
    Dec
    Dec
    Dec 17
    18
    19
    20
    21
    22 2016
    2016
    2016
    2016
    2016 76.213620521
    77.349534365
    79.044674055
    80.831271839
    80.581890287
    78.607323201
    70
    65
    60
    80
    79
    76 Fri,
    Sat,
    Sun,
    Mon,
    Tue,
    Wed, Dec
    Dec
    Dec
    Dec
    Dec 2324
    25
    26
    27
    282016
    2016
    2016
    2016
    2016 75.125126241
    73.587588368
    71.011311858
    67.707918301
    71.39554281
    73.676879967
    72
    74
    71 Thu,
    Fri,
    Sat,
    Sun,
    Mon,
    Tue, Dec
    Dec
    Dec
    Jan
    Jan
    Jan 30
    1
    3529
    31
    2 2016
    2016
    2016
    2017
    2017
    2017 74.373815977
    74.261671184
    73.583169829
    73.70821888
    73.795753216
    72.957027251
    72
    74
    73
    71
    70 Wed,
    Thu,
    Fri,
    Sat,
    Sun,
    Mon, Jan
    Jan
    Jan
    Jan
    Jan67 42017
    89 2017
    2017
    2017
    2017 72.669919076
    72.468943353
    72.928260347
    72.949782243
    72.36484757
    71.655393299 Series 1
    68
    64
    59 Tue,
    Wed,
    Thu,
    Fri,
    63 Tue,
    Sat,
    Sun, Jan
    Jan
    Jan
    Jan
    Jan 1310
    1411
    12
    15 2017
    2017
    2017
    2017
    2017
    2017 71.158775309
    70.811142717
    69.967799902
    68.177459931
    66.924221952
    65.746955366
    65
    60
    57
    59 Mon,
    Wed,
    Thu,
    Fri,
    Sat, Jan
    Jan
    Jan
    Jan
    Jan 201716
    18
    19
    21 2017
    2017
    2017
    2017
    2017 63.722868756
    64.106008129
    62.874205691
    61.111943983
    59.878360788
    59.014852552
    68
    67
    65
    64 Sun,
    Mon,
    Tue,
    Wed,
    Thu,
    Fri, Jan
    Jan
    Jan
    Jan
    Jan 27 22
    2423
    25
    26 2017
    2017
    2017
    2017 59.010396786
    61.70727775
    63.295094425
    64.406566098
    65.184596268
    68
    70
    85
    80
    82
    75
    76
    77
    80
    79
    Sat,
    Sun,
    Mon,
    Tue,
    Wed,
    Thu,
    Fri,
    Sat,
    Sun,
    Mon,
    Jan
    Jan
    Jan
    Jan
    Feb
    Feb
    Feb
    Feb160
    Feb
    Feb
    28
    29
    331
    42
    5
    612017
    30 2017
    2017
    2017
    2017
    2017
    2017
    2017
    2017
    2017
    65.129217388
    64.790452172
    65.75331652
    67.027321564
    72.419125095
    74.693387566
    76.885371296
    76.319759908
    76.223831935
    76.456682355
    77.519677648
    78
    89
    90
    94
    101
    122 Tue,
    Wed,
    Thu,
    Fri,
    Sat,
    Sun, Feb
    Feb
    Feb
    Feb
    Feb 1079
    118
    122017
    2017
    2017
    2017 77.963774354
    77.974642048
    81.282249433
    83.897574603
    86.928302222
    91.149811556
    134
    140
    138
    148
    149
    139 Mon,
    Tue,
    Wed,
    Thu,
    Fri,
    Sat, Feb
    Feb
    Feb
    Feb
    Feb 17 13
    1415
    16
    18 2017
    2017
    2017
    2017
    2017 100.40486809
    110.48340766
    119.33838536
    124.93686975
    131.85580883
    136.99906618
    138
    141
    134
    130
    126
    121 Sun,
    Mon,
    Tue,
    Wed,
    Thu,
    Fri, Feb
    Feb
    Feb
    Feb
    Feb 24 19
    20
    2122
    23 2017
    2017
    2017
    2017
    2017 137.59934633
    137.71954243
    138.7036797
    137.29257579
    135.10480305
    132.37336214
    115
    94
    95
    101
    66 Sat,
    Sun,
    Mon,
    Tue,
    Wed,
    Thu, Feb
    Feb
    Feb
    Feb
    Mar
    140
    Mar 25
    26
    27
    28
    21 2017
    2017
    2017
    2017
    2017 128.9613535
    124.77294745
    121.84106321
    113.48874425
    107.94212097
    105.85948468
    89
    106
    100
    96
    94
    90 Fri,
    Sat,
    Sun,
    Mon,
    Tue,
    Wed, Mar
    Mar
    Mar
    Mar
    Mar 3 45
    72017
    6
    82017
    2017
    2017
    2017 93.901639277
    92.431147494
    96.501803246
    97.551262272
    97.085883591
    96.160118513
    88
    104
    102
    96
    95
    94 Thu,
    Fri,
    Sat,
    Sun,
    Mon, Mar
    Mar
    Mar
    Mar
    Mar 10 9
    11
    12
    132017
    2017
    2017
    2017 94.312082959
    92.418458072
    95.89292065
    97.725044455
    97.207531119
    88 Tue,
    95
    93
    90
    94
    90
    Wed,
    Thu,
    Fri,
    Sat,
    Sun,
    Mon,
    Tue,
    Wed,
    Thu,
    Fri,
    Mar
    Mar
    Mar
    Mar
    Mar
    Mar
    Mar
    Mar
    Mar
    17
    24
    14
    1815
    16
    19
    20
    21
    22
    23
    2017
    2017
    2017
    2017
    2017
    2017
    201
    20 91.596226153
    201
    2017
    96.545271783
    95.781690248
    94.947183174
    94.963028222
    92.280323076 94.374119755
    93.061883829
    91.54331868
    92.280323076
    Sat,
    Sun,
    Mon, Mar
    Tue,Mar
    Wed,
    Thu, Mar
    Mar
    Mar120
    Mar31 25
    26
    27
    28
    29
    30 201
    201
    20
    201 91.596226153
    201 91.596226153
    Fri, 2017
    100

    80

    60

    40

    20

    Series 1 Forecast of Series 1 Fitted Values

    Forecast -- Exponential Smoothing Selected


    Forecast
    Date Daily Weekly Monthly
    Wed, Mar 22 2017 91.60
    Thu, Mar 23 2017 91.60
    Fri, Mar 24 2017 91.60
    Sat, Mar 25 2017 91.60 366.38
    Sun, Mar 26 2017 91.60
    Mon, Mar 27 2017 91.60
    Tue, Mar 28 2017 91.60
    Wed, Mar 29 2017 91.60
    Thu, Mar 30 2017 91.60
    Fri, Mar 31 2017 91.60 915.96
    Avg 91.60 366.38 915.96
    Max 91.60 366.38 915.96
    Min 91.60 366.38 915.96
    Summary Comments
    The forecast has an average error of 7.36%
    The data has a standard deviation of 23.12
    The forecast exceeds the accuracy of a simple average by 80.75%

    Audit Trail - Summary Analysis

    Audit Trail - Statistics

    Accuracy Measures Value Forecast Statistics


    Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) 7.36% Mean
    Sum Squared Error (SSE) 10,186.67 Standard Deviation
    R-Square 80.75%

    Method Statistics Value


    Method Selected Exponential Smoothing
    Alpha 0.30

    ForecastX Configuration Parameters

    Item Value
    Data Range Selected [table.csv]Nov16-Mar17'!$G$1:$G$100
    Time scale for data Daily
    Periods to forecast 10
    Seasonal Length
    Replace Outliers Activated No
    Replace Outliers Standard Deviations
    Replace Outliers Forecasting Technique
    Replace Missing Values No
    Replace Missing Values (Lower Limit)
    Replace Missing Values (Upper Limit)
    Remove Leading Zeros Yes
    Remove Trailing Zeros No
    Use Holdback Evaluation No
    Holdback Evaluation Period
    Apply Tracking Signal No
    Apply Tracking Signal (Under Forecast Percentage)
    Apply Tracking Signal (Over Forecast Percentage)
    Forecast Method Selected Simple Exponential Smoothing

    Report Details
    Run Date: 3/21/2017 9:1 PM
    Author: John Galt Development, Inc.
    Note: ForecastX
    Value
    86.53
    23.12

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