Insight

3
 2 3

www.scbeic.com

03
E-mail : eic@scb.co.th
: +662 544 2953
@SCB_Thailand

04

E-mail

3
4
1: 6
2: 20
46

:
.




: 2017
4 3

3 1)
2)

3)

(Freely Independent Traveler : FIT)


blogger influencer
Airbnb
- Airbnb
Airbnb 1
Airbnb 100%

3
1)
2)
(medical tourism)
3)



1

3
1)

2)


3)


8 3

1.1

( 60 ) 20% 10


15%
25% 2030

1

10 ( 20152030F)
: : %
2005 2015 2015 2030F

128 25
31 15
74 26
64 21
* 87 36
77 28
64 28
66 23
* 29 30
22 25
37 24
28 20
32 29
21 22
28 37
25 29
19 19
10 13
10 25
5 20

* 2015 EIC
: EIC UNWTO, International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Bank
 Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) 9

18% 25% 2009-2015
13%
15% 2012-2015

2

: % : %

2% <15
<15 6% 6%
<20
<20 9%
30%
20-39
20-39 28% 16-34
16-34 34% 30% 45% 41%

13% 15%
40-59
40-59 40% 45% 38%
35-54
35-54 41%

9% 11%
10% 11%


7% 7%
>60
>60 23% 23% 25%

5% 5%
>55
>55 18% 11% 10%
2008 2010 2009 2015 2012 2015

: EIC German National Tourist Board, UK Office for National Statistics U.S.
National Travel and Tourism Office
10 3

Baby Boomer
Gen X Millennial 1.5 3 TripAdvisor
Baby Boomer

Millennial
Gen X

15 1

3
TripBarometer 2016

51 + 36 + 17 +
Baby Boomer Gen X Millennial
() 8,736 5,700 2,915


82% 79% 77%
84% 82% 90%
72% 71% 80%

52% 46% 46%
22% 28% 36%
13% 21% 36%
22% 23% 18%
20% 18% 11%

5% 10% 18%
11% 19% 22%
15% 17% 15%

: EIC TripAdvisor Virtuoso

 Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) 11

1.2

5
7.2% 5.6% 1995-2010


GDP

GDP 23% 9% 2004-2014
10
36%, 12% 24%

4

GDP
: % (2016E,2026F)

2016E 2026F
: 2014 () 2016E 2026F
: 2014 ()
40
10 CAGR (%)

25% 7%
35% 8%
20% 6%
22% 6%
17% 4%
17% 5%
20 11% 4%
12% 4%
11% 4%
15 12% 4%
9% 2%
10% 4%
10 9% 3%
10% 3%
10% 3%
10% 3%
5
7% 2%
9% 3%

8% 2%
0
8% 2%
0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.2 8.8 22.8
GDP 2004-2014 (%)

: EIC World Bank

12 3

Hamad International Airport
23 30 53 2020

2022

(PPP)

2010-2015
Tourism Visa Openness 12 5
Visa on arrival eVisa 8% 21%

5

Tourism Visa Openness

: %

()
6% 2% 3% 3% 6% eVisa
8%
34 Correlation = 0.7834 1,200 16% 15% 16%
17% 17% 15% Visa on arrival
32
1,150 18% 18% 19% 18% No visa required
30
28 1,100
26
1,050 77% 75%
24 64% 64% 62% 61% Traditional visa
22 1,000
20
0 0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2008 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015

: EIC UNWTO
 Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) 13

1.3

automation internet of things
(IoT) Artificial Intelligence (AI)

2012



roaming Pocket Wi-Fi

6



: , % : , %
2011 2016 (2016)
2011 2016 (2016) 2011 2016 (2016)
(% CAGR)
(% CAGR)
(% CAGR)
79% 77% 77%78% 78%
42% 42% 67% 65% 48% 48%43% 43%53% 53%
25% 29% 29%

+12%
+32%
1.724
, +32% +19% +19%
1,755
989 +6% +15% +15% 778 778
+4%
647 +49% +49%
+19% +12% +11% 419499 483 432
+32% +32% 432 +11% +11% 483 483
240 280 280
185 185 244 244 323 323
100 93 161 111188 38 38 46 46
150
88 88 150

CIS*

CIS* CIS*

*Commonwealth of Independent States

: EIC ITU
14 3

42%

TripAdvisor
Millennial 87%
Gen X Baby Boomer 73% 55%

7
44% 2 2012

: , %

7.1 7.2 7.3 7.3

6.9 7.0
2.6 3.2
1.8
1.3
0.9
0.5

44%
36%
25%
13% 18%
7%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

: EIC World Bank Ericsson

Google Play Store
1


Google Maps




 Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) 15

8

3

90
90
2012 2015

500 ()

40
40


30
30

20
20

10
10



00
0 2 4 6 8 28

()

: EIC ITU Akamai

Booking.com 1 226
6

(e-Payment)

16 3

BOX
Alipay

Alipay

9% 2020 200
Ant financial Alibaba
Ingenico Group Worldline Global
Alipay Alipay
InterContinental Hotels Group,
Resorts World Sentosa Marriott International
United Airlines, UBER Grab
 Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) 17

9
9%
200 2020

+9%
200

+15% 140++
128
117
98
83
70

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2020F

: EIC McKinsey

Ant financial Alipay

mobile payment
Alipay
451 33%


Alipay 70%
2016
65%
e-Commerce Ant financial

18 3

10
Alipay
: ,

CAGR 98%
153

33%

5 451

7.5% 4 300
7.5%




2 +100%
150
100
100 +50%

2004
2004 2008
2008 2009
2009 2010
2010 2015
2015

: EIC

VISA Mastercard 2-3%
Mobile Point of Sale (mPOS)



Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) 19

2




1)

2)

3)

80%


Airbnb
 22 3

2009 - 2015

2.2

2009
3.7

2012
5.8

2015

10 2015
() (%)
1.30 16
1.05 31
0.38 27
0.27 20 Focus
0.24 20
0.22 25

0.18 21
0.18 23

0.18 19
0.15 18

3.1

6.0

4
(Non-immigrant visa O-A)

6 1 15%
2 / 10%
3 / / / 6%

4 / 5%

5
2010 2014

Slow life
: EIC 21 2017

www.scbeic.com
www.scbeic.com
 Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) 23

2.1

19% 2015 16% 2009 18%

31% 27%
2 1) 2)

9% 13%

4,728
4% 1.25
10.72
50,684 1.83
2015

11
10
: : , %
CAGR CAGR


+12% +12%
() (%)


+18% +18%
1.30 16
29.9
29.9 1.05 31
+13% 26.5 0.38 27
24.8
22.4 0.27 20
19.2 0.24 20
15.9 0.22 25
14.1
0.18 21
0.18 23
0.18 19
3.7 4.5 4.3 5.8
2.2 2.5 2.9 (17%) (17%) (19%) 0.15 18
(16%) (16%) (15%) (17%)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 19

: EIC
24 3

18%

Global Retirement Index 2016 International Living 7
6-7

Non-Immigrant Visa O-A (Long stay)
1 10

12

80


80
Non-Immigrant Visa O-A
(Long (CAGR 2010-2014)
stay) (CAGR 2010-2014)
40
2020 ()

19%
2020 ()

40

13%
15%
30
30
19%

21%

113%
20
20
22%

23%

23%
10
10

0
0 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 110,000 120,000
2020 ()
2020 ()

: EIC World Bank United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs
 Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) 25

13
2010-2014
Non-Immigrant Visa O-A Non-Immigrant Visa O-A
(Long stay) (Long stay)
: : %

+18% 6.0 15%
0.2 26%

10%

3.1 4%

10%
0.2 5.8
5%

5% 6%
2.9 6% 6%
6%

2010 2014

: EIC

21%

10


37 2020

() 6

26 3

49%

30

5 10



24


 Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) 27

14 1 10
10 Global Retirement Index 2016
= 1

0.97 0.95
0.91
0.85
0.81 0.80
0.76 0.73
0.66
0.62

: EIC World Health Organization (WHO) International Living

15 20%
* *
: :

+21%
+21%
+21% +38%
75,038
75,038

36,853

28,375
28,375

7,477

2015
2015 2020F
2020F
2015 2020F 2015 2020F

*
Non-Immigrant Visa O-A (Long stay)
: EIC
28 3

(slow tourism)


37%

16

: %

64.6%
64.6%


64.6%

64.6%




64.6% 64.6%
35.4%
57%

35.4%
35.4%
35.4%



57% 57% 57%










35.4%


35.4% 57% 57%


38.8%
47.4%











38.8%
38.8%47.4%


47.4%



38.8%
38.8% 38.8%


47.4% 47.4%
47.4%

: EIC Adarsh Batra (2009). Senior pleasure tourists: Examination of their

demography, travel experience, and travel behavior upon visiting the Bangkok Metropolis
 Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) 29

2.2


2016

19.8% 2009-2016
31.3



24.2% 18.5%
1 4

17


10 10 *
2016 2009-2016

2009-2016
() () (% )
1 21.47 14.80 1 24.15%
2 19.88 19.80 2 20.14%
3 18.03 12.90 3 19.81% &
4 15.27 31.30 4 19.57%
5 12.75 18.50 5 18.48%
6 12.11 12.50 6 16.45% &
7 12.02 11.30 7 14.53%
8 11.95 7.50 8 14.20%
9 11.70 13.50 9 12.98% &

10 10.20 12.30 10 12.93%

: EIC Mastercard * 1
30 3

(mass)
(low-cost carrier)

2016
-0.1%

(adventure tourism) 42%

69% 2
(soft adventure)
(hard adventure)
1,500 1
500

10-20%


10-20% 2
2013-2015 0.4

18

2015
:
60
55
2015

50
(% )

45
40
20

15

10

5

0
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 170 180 190 200 210 410 420 430
(%
(%2015-2013)
2013-2015)

: EIC TAT : 2013-2015

1
Adventure Tourism Market Study 2013 The George Washington University
 Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) 31

1,000-3,000

5,000-10,000

19
100
:

2 1
1 1
2
1
3
1
3
4
5


4
1
1
2 2
4
2
9
1
4

2
3
1
3
7
6
1
1
1
8
2
5
3
4
5

: EIC Adventure.tourismthailand.org

32 3
#

25%
CAGR
1,182

3,654

2011 2016

DREAMING
Social media

52% Facebook

SHARING PLANNING


social media
The Travel

Blogger Influencer


Cycle of Tomorrow 73%

TripAdvisor

20

180

2005 2015

EXPERIENCE BOOKING



67%
56%
Online booking


17%

51%

: EIC ITU, four-pillars.co.uk, TripAdvisor Barclays

www.scbeic.com
 Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) 33

2.3 (FIT Traveler)

32%
29% 10 80%

17% 2017
2018

5.72
40% 10-13% 3
34%

17% 12%

20


: : %

54%
6.96
52%
6.36 50%
5.72 29% 47%
5.09 30% 44% 45% 45% 45% 45%
4.51 31% 43% 42% 43%
4.00 41% 40% 40%
32%
33% 27% 38%
25% 37%

33% 24% 35%
23% 33% 34%
21%

21% 26% 31%

27%
30% 28%
32% 27%
33%
18% 25%
16% 17%
13% 14% 15%
2013
2013 2014
2014 2015
2015 2016E
2016E 2017F
2017F 2018F
2018F 2013 2014 2015 2016E
2016E 2017F 2018F

: EIC Barclays
34 3

(OTA)

15% 20152 OTA Priceline Group
Booking.com Priceline.com Agoda.com
Rentalcars.com Opentable.com



300

70%

Booking.com, Expedia.com, Skyscanner.com Trivago


80%
51%

15-30%
10%


Cornell University
7.5-26%

customer royalty

2
: www. HVS.com
 Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) 35

21

15-30% 15-30% 0% 0% 10%
15-30


%
(OTA)
15-30



%
(GDS)
0
% 0

%
(walk-in/
10

% /
) /

(OTA) (GDS) (walk-in/)

Priceline Group
Priceline Group

Booking.com Agoda.com Priceline.com

Booking.com Agoda.com Priceline.com

KAYAK.com Carrentals.com OpenTable.com

KAYAK.com Carrentals.com OpenTable.com

: EIC

Yamato Transport
Kayak



36 3

2.4
76%

blogger four-pillars.co.uk
52% Facebook

Cornell University
10% 8.9% occupancy rate 5.4%
(Revenue per Available Room : RevPAR) 14.2%

blogger influencer
TripAdvisor 50%
(influencer)
Tomoson.com 60%
influencer

22
blogger influencer
TripAdvisor
:

200

150

50%
100

50

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

: EIC TripAdvisor
 Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) 37

Hawaii Tourism Department #LetHawaiiHappen influencer

Instagram

(user generated content) influencer
1 1 65%
2

Google Consumer Surveys Go Fish Digital 22%
1 70% 3



Google Alert, Hootsuite ReviewPro

23

influencer

3 step

38 3

Airbnb

Airbnb

35

70%
Airbnb

...
Airbnb
Airbnb Airbnb
Airbnb
() () Airbnb
: / : 1.1 : 9.6
2,000 2,100
1,750 1,730
22
0.05 0.6 16

Airbnb Airbnb 2013 2015 2013 2016E

EICs View


Airbnb


Airbnb
: EIC 6 2016 Airdna, Airbnb

www.scbeic.com
 Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) 39

2.5 (emerging business model)

Airbnb
- Airbnb
3 190 130% 2010
1.1
Airbnb 10%
17%
1 Airbnb -
Airbnb 50-100
145 Airbnb
173 37%

Airbnb
Uber Grab Taxi
Airbnb


Airbnb
7 Airbnb
1 Airbnb
Airbnb
American Express Global Business travel, BCD Travel,
Carlson Wagonlit Travel
40 3

Airbnb
Airbnb
Airbnb 35

14-16 71%
7
Airbnb

3 2,500
Airbnb 2,000
1,500-2,000 Airbnb

24 Airbnb

Airbnb

: % : %

51%
51%
Airbnb
6%
4%

33%
19%
25% 25%
22%

14%
12%
71%
7% 7%
5%

1 2 3-5 6-10 10+

: EIC UBS Research

Airbnb
Airbnb 1 Airbnb 100%
(sharing economy) 2015 Airbnb
Union Pay Alipay Airbnb 500%
27% Airbnb
Airbnb 9
2015 4 Airbnb

 Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) 41

25 Airbnb
Airbnb 1 Airbnb 100%
Airbnb Airbnb
: :

9.60 1.2

1.0

0.8

4.50 0.6

0.4
1.60
0.62 0.2
0.02 0.08 0.20
0.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015

: EIC UBS Research

42 3

BOX

2017
 Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) 43

26

:
+8.4%
35.3
32.6
29.9
26.5
24.8
22.4
19.2
15.9
14.6 14.1

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017F

: EIC World Economic Forum DNP

8.4% 2017
2016
2017
Visa CLMV
20% 16%

27

GDP growth
: % : %YOY

20 100
6.3% 6.4% ()
6.2% GDP ()
50

4.7%
0 0
4.0%
3.4%
-50
(50)

2.5%
-20 -100
(100)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017F 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017F

: EIC CEIC IMF

44 3

28


real PCE* growth
: %YOY :

+10.6%
30
131.9
25 119.3
Real PCE 106.8
20
15
10
5
0

2016E

2017F
2015
2016E

2017F
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

*Private Consumption Expenditure

: EIC NESDB

10%








2

 Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) 45

29 14% 2017 2.9

: , %YOY
+14%
2.9
2.6
2.3 1.0
0.9
1.9 1.9
0.8
1.6
0.7 0.7
1.3
0.6
0.5 1.9
1.6
1.5
1.2 1.2
1.0
0.8

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F

: EIC

50,000 2016
53,000 2017

46 3
 Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) 47

(adventure tourism)

(medical tourism)

Amazing Thailand Unseen Thailand


Facebook Instagram Youtube



48 3

. Economic
Intelligence Center (EIC)
. (Risk Analytics)
.
. 10
(IMF)
Booz Allen Hamilton ING Group
Economic Intelligence Center

.
(Non-resident
Fellow)
Asia Society

.

(M.I.T.)

7






()

() 5
5




: Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors
(RICS)

 Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) 49

New Breed IC @U-Net
(TSI)
(ATI)

()

Junior IC@Broker
(ATI) (TSI)

SET100

Economic Intelligence Center (EIC)
E-mail: eic@scb.co.th : +66 (2) 544 2953
.
Economic Intelligence Center
sutapa.amornvivat@scb.co.th

Economic and Financial Infrastructure Cluster Sectorial Strategy

Market Research

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Service Cluster

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