Batch Number : MBA GENERALQMTY134 Student Number : 126623

ID No: 8206010836083 Surname : Makgata

First Name : Karabo Ziphora Assignment ID: 301618

II I II
II
II I I II
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MANCOSA ASSIGNMENT COVER PAGE

Student Number: 126623

First Name: Karabo Ziphora

Surname: Makgata

ID.Number: 8206010836083

Course: Master of Business Administration General(MBAG)

Intake: January 2015

Module: Quantitative Methods

Examination venue: Johannesburg

Submission type: First Submission

Postal Address: 4385 ,Malandela StreetTsakane Gauteng

South Africa 1550

Work Phone: 016 4555091 Cell No: 0835278434

Email Address: karabomakgata@gmail.com

Secondary Email: 126623@students.mancosa.co.za

Number of Attachments: 1

Number of pages in assignment: 17

Number of questions answered: 5

File Names: Quantitative Methods.pdf

FOR OFFICE USE ONLY:

NUMBER OF ATTACHMENTS NUMBER OF PAGES I NUMBER OF QUESTIONS

QUESTION NO I MARKER MARKS 1 MODERATOR/ MARKS QA CHECK

,---------
 1

STUDENT NUMBER 126623

TITLE Ms

SURNAME Makgata

FIRST NAME/S Karabo

PROGRAMME MBA

INTAKE 2014

MODULE Quantitative Methods

FACILITATOR

EXAMINATION VENUE

DATE SUBMITTED 02-03-2014

FIRST SUBMISSION

SUBMISSION TYPE RE-SUBMISSION

SUBMISSION DATE 02 April 2014

PO BOX 70360

POSTAL ADDRESS Tsakane

1548

(WORK) 0114555091

(HOME) 0117384943
CONTACT DETAILS
(CELL) 0835278434

(EMAIL) karabomakgata@gmail.com
 2

Table of Contents

Question 1 Page 3

Question 2 Page 5

Question 3 Page 8

Question 4 Page 11

Question 5 Page 16
 3

Question 1

Interval f cf x fx fx2
5-10 3 3 7.5 22.5 168.75
10-15 6 t , 9 12.5 75 937.5
i
15-20 7 / 16 " 17.5 122.5 2143.75
20-25 12 , 28 22.5 270 , 6075
25-30 9 / 37 27.5 247.5 6808.25
30-35 6 - 43 32.5
q 195 6337.5
35-40 2 ,, ' 45 37.5 75 2812.5
Total 157.5 1007.5 25281.25
V.

Calculations:

1.1

1007.5
45
_

= $22.38

1.2 mo (f. L-1)

ma
24, fin

= 20 + 5(12-7)
2 x12 (7

I
= 23.125
 4

1.3 s

(1007.5)
25281.25
45
44

= 461.9418

7.87

cv %

7.87
22.38

= 0.3517

=35.17%

The CV is very small and suggests that the amount spent by customers is less spread
 5

Question 2

2.1 The probability of all posts

2
P(1) & P(2) & P(3) = xL(1
342

Probability of at least one post is P 1, which is the same as

P > 1= 1-[P(0)]

---- 1-

_3
4

= 0.75

Therefore the candidate has a probability of 75% chance of being successful for at least one post.
 6

2.2 YOPIC 0.36

OT MYOPIC 0.64

0.21

NOT MYOPIC 0.79

Probability of being myopic when lights on P (1) 0.28 x0.36

= 0.1008

Probability of being myopic when lights off P (2) = 0.72x0.21

0.1512

Therefore probability of being myopic (lights on and off) = 0.1008 + 0.1512

= 0.252

25.20%

There is a 25.20% chance that a child 16 is myopic.

2.3 Notes

N=10

ID? 3

Quadratic equation ax2 + bx + c = 0 to determine 71

Therefore from given information

P(i0) = 0.026424
 7

n!
P (x)= xl x) 7Cx (1-31)"-x

Solve for ir using quadratic equation

1.0! 5 0 TO5
0.026424 - -

5!(10-5)!

0.00104857

2t - 7? = 0.159999816

- +0.159999816 = 0

,42 4ac
71
2a

1412 4(1)(0.159999816)
2(1)

- 0.8 or 0.2

Substitute 0.2 in 6'0 p6 (1 pr -

P [1- [P(0) + P(1) + P(2)11

,-
= 1 - '00.2 0.8 +i- 0.20.89 +2' 0.220.81

- 0.3222

= 32.22%

There's a probability of 32.22% that no fewer than 3 items not be reconciled.

-
-

Question 3

Notes:

a= 0.05

x =6 30

x 2 =5.98

n2 = 12

n1 =12

die =(2-1)+(n+1)

Calculations:

x f fx x f fx
5.2 1 5.2 4.9 1 4.9
5.6 1 5.7 5.1 1 5.1
5.7 1 5.9 5.3 1 5.4
5.9 1 6 5.5 1 5.5
6 1 6.3 5.7 1 5.7
6.3 1 12.8 5.9 1 5.9
6.4 2 6.4 6.1 2 12.2
6.6 1 6.6 6.5 1 6.5
7 1 7 6.7 1 6.7
7.5 1 7.5 6.9 1 6.9
75.6 12 82 71.8 12 77.9

Mean A

75.6
12

= 6.30
 9

Mean B

= 71.8
12'

= 5.98

fv 2 fr)2
s=
1

(75.6)
481.12 -

12
12-1

= 0.44

Sh =
n1

(71.8) 2
,j434.74
12
12-1

= 0.47

Step 1: The null and alternative hypotheses

It's a comparison of two population means with a sample of <30

Ho /-12

-111 : ,u1 <> /12

Step 2: The level of significance

a=0.05/2
 10

Step 3: The rejection region and the rejection rule

df = 12+12 2=22 -

= +2.82
crit

This is a two tailed test c, +2.074 or 2.074

- -

Reject Ho if ealc < 2.074 or > +2.074

-

Step 4: Sample test statistic

1 - x2
t (n,-1) s,2 + ( n2 -1) s22 (1 1j
cale
Ili + n2 2 /71 n2

6.30-5.98
!(12_1)0.442 + (12 1)0.472 ( 1 I
+
12+12-2 12 12)

= +1.15 or -1.15

Step 5: Application of rejection rule to the sample statistic

<-1.15 or > +1.15

Step 6: Conclusion

Therefore ck does not lie in the critical region. This then means we must not reject H thus there is
no evidence at 5% level of significance to suggest that there is a significant difference between the two
populations
 11

Question 4

Four Centere
Four Quarter Specific
Sales Quarter moving Moving Seasonal
Quarter ($000) Total Average Average
Apr-Jun 530

Jul-Sep 563
2010
2318 579.5

Oct-Dec 600 582 1.0309

2338 584.5

Jan-Mar 625 586.625 1.0654

2355 588.75

Apr-Jun 550 591.125 0.9304 2

2374 593.5
2011
Jul-Sep 580 596.625 0.9721

2399 599.75

Oct-Dec 619 602.25 1.0278

2419 604.75

Jan-Mar 650 618.75 1.0505

2531 632.75

Apr-Jun 570 634.75 0.8980,

2547 636.75
2012
Jul-Sep 692 639.25 1.0825

2567 641.75

Oct-Dec 635 644.25 0.9856

2587 646.75

Jan-Mar 670 638 1.0592

2517 629.25

2013 Apr-Jun 590

Jul-Sep 622
 12

Calculation of Seasonal Index

Year Jan-Apr Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec
2010 1.0309

2011 1.0654 0.9304 0.9721 1.0278

2012 1.0505 0.8980 1.0825 0.9856

2013 1.0502

Total 3.1661 1.8284 2.0546 3.0443

Modified .
Mean 1.0505 09142 1.0273 1.0278 4.0198

Adjustment
factor 0.9951 0.9951 0.9951 0.9951

Seasonal
Index 1.0454 0.9097 1.0223 1.0228 4

% 105.23 91.15 102.43 101.19

Adjustment
Factor 4
4.0198

=0.9951
 13

Year Quarter X Y XY X2

Apr-Jun 1 530 530 1

2010 Jul-Sep 2 563 1126 4

Oct-Dec 3 600 1800 9

Jan-Mar 4 625 2500 16

Apr-Jun 5 550 2750 25

2011
Jul-Sep 6 580 3480 36

Oct-Dec 7 619 4333 49

Jan-Mar 8 650 5200 64

2012 Apr-Jun 9 570 5130 81

Jul-Sep 10 692 6920 100

 14

Oct-Dec 11 635 6985 121

Jan-Mar 12 670 8040 144

2013 Apr-Jun 13 590 7670 169

Jul-Sep 14 622 8708 196

TOTAL 105 8496 65172 1015

= n(Z xy)
Slope b
n(Ix2 )-(Ex)2

(14 x 65172) (i 05 x 8496)

(14 x1015)_(1052 )

20328
3185

= 6.38

Intercept a
Y 4 / x1
8496 (105)
6.38
14 14

= 559.007
 15

Using the method of least squares equation, y a + bx

559.007 + 6.38 (x)

Year Quarter x-code Straight line Trend Seasonal Seasonalised

equation line index trend
value
2014 Q1 16 559.007+6.38(16) 661.087 1.0454 697.770
Q2 17 559.007+6.38(17) 667.467 0.9097 607.194
 16

Question 5

Cec

Pavourabieing conditio s $290 000

$165000 0.75
j
oz Unfavourable sellin/ conditions ($210 000 )
$110 ODD FvourbTe se t-tg con 'bons $190 000

e $165 Small faCtory 3

0.2 Unfavourable seilingditions ($13 1113
No factory (sic' am)
Fvcurbi conditions $290 000

Unfavourable selling ons ($210 000')

Favourable selling c rations sigg 000

itions ($130 ODD )

($10 pm')

Favourable 5e1ling condition% $300 000

0 Unfavourable s ($200000')
Favourable selling conditions $200000
Th
nfavourable sin co iti ($120 000 )

I I.
$75
NG fad DIV

Calculations of expected monetary value at event nodes

Note the amount of $10000 has already been deducted

EMV (1) = 0.75(290000)-0.25(210000) = $165000

EMV (2) 0.75(190000)-0.25(1300000) = $110000

EMV (3) 0.20(290000)-0.80(210000) = $-110000

EMV (4) = 0.20(1900000)-0.80(130000) = $66000

 17

Conclusion

The overall selling conditions are 0.55 (given) meaning (300000+200000) 0.55 + (200000+120000)
0.45 = 131 000 -10000 = $121000. Therefore a large factory will be built as it yields a greater return of
$165000 compared to the small factory and a market survey will be conducted and only $10000 will
be used. However the market survey helps to mitigate any monetary risks. Under conditions of not
'
conducting a research, the projected will not ensue as there is a loss of $1 1 0000 and $660000 for large
and small factories respectively.