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Service IQ - NZ Cafes-Bars-Restaurants Sector 2014
Service IQ - NZ Cafes-Bars-Restaurants Sector 2014
2014
for ServiceIQ
This report is one of 11 Sector Profile Reports that ServiceIQ has developed about the 11 sectors in our
gazetted coverage area. These reports aim to give an overview of each sector with a focus on economic
contribution, characteristics of the workforce, skills and training, opportunities and challenges facing
the sector and projections of economic contribution and employment over the next five years. They
will be used to inform ServiceIQs industry and sector advisory groups and as an input into ServiceIQs
Service Sector Workforce Development Plan.
The Sector Profile Reports were prepared by Infometrics using data from official sources including the
2006 and 2013 Census, Business Demography, and GDP and modelling based on Infometrics Regional
Industry Occupation Model. These data sources were supplemented with desk research and qualitative
information where available.
These reports should be considered alongside other pieces of work including detailed research on an
individual sector, government strategies, and in-depth sector knowledge.
ServiceIQ anticipates updating these profiles on an annual basis and would like to include an
increasing amount of sector-specific information as we become aware of it and as more is available.
For further information about the Sector Profile Reports, please contact:
Jenny Connor Andrew Whiteford
Industry Skills and Research Manager Senior Analyst
ServiceIQ Infometrics
jenny.connor@ServiceIQ.org.nz andreww@infometrics.co.nz
Authorship
This report has been prepared by:
Andrew Whiteford (Senior Analyst), Dirk van Seventer (Senior Economist) and Benje Patterson (Economist) of Infometrics.
All work and services rendered are at the request of, and for the purposes of ServiceIQ only.
Neither Infometrics nor any of its employees accepts any responsibility on any grounds whatsoever, including negligence, to any other
person or organisation. While every effort is made by Infometrics to ensure that the information, opinions, and forecasts are accurate and
reliable, Infometrics shall not be liable for any adverse consequences of the clients decisions made in reliance of any report provided by
Infometrics, nor shall Infometrics be held to have given or implied any warranty as to whether any report provided by Infometrics will assist
in the performance of the clients functions.
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form, or by any means including electronic, mechanical,
photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of ServiceIQ.
Industry profile: Cafs, Bars and Restaurants sector 1
Table of contents
Key highlights ...................................................................................................... 3
Unique characteristics......................................................................................... 3
Training ............................................................................................................... 4
Sector outlook ..................................................................................................... 4
1. INTRODUCTION .......................................................... 5
Defining the cafs, bars and restaurants sector ................................................. 5
5. DEMOGRAPHICS .......................................................19
Age .................................................................................................................... 19
Gender .............................................................................................................. 20
Highest qualification .......................................................................................... 21
Ethnicity............................................................................................................. 23
Country of birth ................................................................................................. 25
Hours worked .................................................................................................... 27
6. TRAINING ..................................................................29
2 Industry profile: Cafs, Bars and Restaurants sector
Age .................................................................................................................... 29
Gender .............................................................................................................. 31
Ethnicity............................................................................................................. 32
Level of study .................................................................................................... 33
Region ............................................................................................................... 34
Domain .............................................................................................................. 35
Provider-based training ..................................................................................... 36
Executive summary
Key highlights
Approximately 75,500 people were employed in the cafs, bars and restaurants
sector in 2012. Employment in the sector grew rapidly during the free-spending
boom years of the early to mid-2000s but dropped sharply with the onset of the
recession in 2009. Employment in the sector has been recovering over the past few
years as labour market conditions and consumer spending have picked up.
There were approximately 10,600 business units in the cafs, bars and restaurants
sector in 2013. The number of business units in the sector grew rapidly between
2001 and 2006 and then levelled off from 2009 with the onset of the recession.
The cafs, bars and restaurants sector contributed $2,648 million ($2.65 billion) to
the New Zealand economy in 2012 (measured in 2010 prices). Economic output in
the sector grew rapidly (3.2%pa) in the five years to 2007 but at only 0.3%pa over
the next five years as the recession caused consumers to slash discretionary
expenditure on entertainment. In 2012 GDP per FTE in the cafs, bars and
restaurants sector was only 44% of that in the national economy.
Unique characteristics
The cafs, bars and restaurants sector has a much higher proportion of younger (15-
24 years) workers than the national economy. More than 40% of employees in the
sector are under the age of 25 compared with 14% in the national economy.
There were more female than male workers in the cafs, bars and restaurants
sector in 2013. Females accounted for 57.4% of total employment compared with
only 47.1% in the national economy.
Asians are highly represented in the cafs, bars and restaurants sector accounting
for 24.3% of employees compared with 11.1% in the national economy. The Asian
share of employment increased rapidly from 17.2% in 2006.
4 Industry profile: Cafs, Bars and Restaurants sector
The cafs, bars and restaurants sector employed relatively fewer New Zealand born
workers (60.7%) compared to all industries (71.7%) in 2013.
Nearly 38% of workers in the cafs, bars and restaurants sector worked part-time in
2013 compared with 21.1% in the national economy.
Almost 60% of employees in the cafs, bars and restaurants sector had no post
school qualifications in 2013. This was a significantly higher proportion than in the
national economy (43.4%).
Training
ServiceIQ had 1,399 cafs, bars and restaurants sector trainees at some point in
2013, which accounted for 6.5% of all ServiceIQ trainees.
The majority (84.3%), of trainees in the cafs, bars and restaurants sector are
studying towards level 3 qualifications. By contrast, 21.6% of trainees across the
whole of ServiceIQ are studying for level 3 qualifications. Only 14.5% of trainees in
the cafs, bars and restaurants sector are studying at level 4 and above.
Mori comprise 13.6% and Pasifika 3.8% of trainees in the cafs, bars and
restaurants sector.
Sector outlook
Employment in the cafs, bars and restaurants sector is expected to rise rapidly
over the next five years. We forecast total employment in the sector to increase
from 75,529 in 2012 to 84,150 by 2017.
Driving growth in employment in the industry will be increasing patronage in cafs,
bars, and restaurants. This trend will be driven by household discretionary
expenditure climbing in line with improving labour market conditions.
Employment growth will be relatively evenly spread, with broad occupation
categories in the sector all growing between 0.9% to 4.1%pa over the five years to
2017. The broadness of this growth reflects the fact that enterprises in the industry
are efficiently run after the recession has shaken out the less efficient enterprises.
The surviving enterprises typically do not have spare labour capacity; therefore any
upward scaling to business activity levels necessitates hiring across most business
functions.
Industry profile: Cafs, Bars and Restaurants sector 5
1. INTRODUCTION
This report presents a profile of the cafs, bars and restaurants sector. It describes
trends in employment, the basic characteristics of the sector and its employees, and
the characteristics of its trainees and learners. It also provides an insight into the
future and presents forecasts of employment growth.
Unless otherwise stated this report presents data for calendar years.
2. SECTOR PROFILE
An outlook for the sector is provided in the section Outlook for the cafs, bars and
restaurants sector on page 14.
Table 2. Total employment in the cafs, bars and restaurants sector, 2001-2012
Cafs, Bars and Restaurants New Zealand
Year
FTEs Jobs Change Jobs Change
2001 44,839 60,712 1,862,895
2002 47,797 64,716 6.6% 1,923,798 3.3%
2003 49,470 66,979 3.5% 1,979,437 2.9%
2004 51,220 69,357 3.5% 2,039,390 3.0%
2005 52,995 71,765 3.5% 2,108,155 3.4%
2006 54,255 73,494 2.4% 2,142,486 1.6%
2007 55,793 75,562 2.8% 2,184,802 2.0%
2008 56,452 76,423 1.1% 2,219,403 1.6%
2009 54,689 73,988 -3.2% 2,167,989 -2.3%
2010 54,378 73,524 -0.6% 2,160,647 -0.3%
2011 55,492 75,016 2.0% 2,180,241 0.9%
2012 55,897 75,529 0.7% 2,199,074 0.9%
2002-2012 1.6% 1.3%
Source: Statistics NZ and Infometrics
Industry profile: Cafs, Bars and Restaurants sector 7
Figure 1. Total employment in the cafs, bars and restaurants sector, 2001 to 2012
2,500,000 90,000
80,000
2,000,000 70,000
60,000
1,500,000
50,000
40,000
1,000,000
30,000
500,000 20,000
New Zealand
10,000
Cafs, Bars and Restaurants
0 0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Occupations
This section examines the growth in occupations in the cafs, bars and restaurants
sector. By drawing on data from the population census it is possible to split out
employment in the sector to approximately 1,000 detailed occupational categories.
In this section we report on an aggregation of those categories into eight broad
categories as well as the numerically largest detailed occupations.
Table 3 shows employment by broad occupations. The sector is dominated by
community and personal service workers (includes waiters and caf workers) and
technicians and trades workers (includes chefs and cooks). These categories
accounted for the majority of job openings over the ten years to 2012.
1
This table shows change in employment between 2002 and 2012. Change is measured in per annum terms. The
change in number of jobs per annum between 2002 and 2012 is equal to the difference between the value in 2012
and 2002 divided by 10.
8 Industry profile: Cafs, Bars and Restaurants sector
Managers
Professionals
Labourers
Business units
There were approximately 10,600 business units in the cafs, bars and restaurants
sector in 2013. Figure 3 shows that the number of business units in the sector grew
rapidly between 2001 and 2006 and then levelled off from about 2009 with the
onset of the recession. Over the 10 years to 2013 the number of business units in
the sector grew considerably faster (2.4%) than in the national economy (1.8%).
The rapid growth in businesses was associated with the strong increase in personal
incomes and discretionary spending during the boom years.
Figure 3. Number of business units in the cafs, bars and restaurants sector, 2000-
2013
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics NZ
Size of businesses
On average business units in the cafs, bars and restaurant sector are larger than in
the national economy. About 62% of business units in the sector had 5 or fewer
employees in 2013, compared with 87% in the national economy. Mid-size
enterprises account for the majority of employment with businesses between 10
and 49 employees accounting for nearly 55% of employment in the sector.
Geography
Auckland is the region with the highest number of employees, accounting for 35.2%
of employment in the cafs, bars and restaurants sector in 2012. This was followed
by Wellington (12.8%) and Canterbury (12.5%). Over the 10 years to 2012 fastest
growth was measured in Taranaki (2.9%), Auckland (2.8%), and Otago (1.7%).
Economic contribution
The cafs, bars and restaurants sector contributed $2,648 million ($2.65 billion) to
the New Zealand economy in 2012 (measured in 2010 prices2). This level was only
marginally above its prerecession peak measured in 2007. Economic output in the
sector grew rapidly (3.2%pa) in the five years to 2007 but at only 0.3%pa over the
next five years as the recession caused consumers to slash discretionary
expenditure on entertainment.
Table 8. Contribution to GDP by the cafs, bars and restaurants sector (2001-2012)
Cafs, Bars and
New Zealand
Year Restaurants
$ million Change $ million Change
2001 2,084 152,045
2002 2,228 6.9% 159,473 4.9%
2003 2,284 2.5% 166,488 4.4%
2004 2,371 3.8% 173,781 4.4%
2005 2,448 3.3% 178,428 2.7%
2006 2,543 3.9% 182,439 2.2%
2007 2,609 2.6% 188,639 3.4%
2008 2,589 -0.8% 187,362 -0.7%
2009 2,496 -3.6% 188,588 0.7%
2010 2,526 1.2% 192,015 1.8%
2011 2,605 3.1% 194,322 1.2%
2012 2,648 1.6% 199,966 2.9%
2002-2012 1.7% 2.3%
Source: Statistics NZ and Infometrics
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2 In this profile, we present all GDP estimates in constant 2010 prices. GDP presented in constant prices is
sometimes referred to as real GDP. By using constant prices we remove the distractionary effect of inflation. It
enables us to meaningfully compare GDP from one year to the next. Our GDP estimates differ from those published
by Statistics New Zealand which are at 1995/6 prices.
12 Industry profile: Cafs, Bars and Restaurants sector
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
3. INDUSTRY OUTLOOK
Foreca st
4.5% 4.2%
4.0%
4.0%
3.6%
3.5%
2.9%
3.0% 2.7%
2.5%
1.8% 1.9%
2.0%
1.5% 1.2%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Table 9. Total employment in the cafs, bars and restaurants sector, 2012-2017
Cafs, Bars and Restaurants
Year
Level Change pa
2012 75,529 0.7%
2013 77,009 2.0%
2014 79,195 2.8%
2015 81,067 2.4%
2016 82,921 2.3%
2017 84,150 1.5%
2012-2017 2.2%
Source: Statistics NZ and Infometrics
Figure 7. Total employment in the cafs, bars and restaurants sector, 2001-2017
90,000
ForecastForecast
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
Occupation outlook
The tables below show forecast of employment by broad occupation and the 20
numerically largest detailed occupations in the cafs, bars and restaurants sector.
In addition to new positions being created, positions will need filling due to
replacement of existing staff as staff enter and leave occupations. The table below
shows new jobs opening due to growth in employment, net positions opening due
to replacement and total positions opening.
The occupations with the largest number of positions opening over the five years to
2017 are waiter (1,277 per year), chef (1,243 per year), and caf or restaurant
manager (1,023 per year).
Industry profile: Cafs, Bars and Restaurants sector 17
in parliament. The Bill focuses on health and safety and will have an impact on what
businesses do and what training their staff require if it is enacted.
Over recent years efforts, have been made to raise the drinking age from 18 to 20.
Although these efforts have not come to fruition, the risk of further bills of this type
being introduced to Parliament remains. Fortunately for the cafs, bars and
restaurants sector, the most likely scenario for raising the drinking age would be a
split drinking age, whereby off-license purchases needed to be made by those aged
20 or above, while 18 to 20 year olds could still drink in bars and restaurants. If this
type of regulation was introduced, the sector would actual face a lift in demand as
youth would be pushed towards drinking in licensed facilities.
Opening hours of bars have been restricted in many parts of the country as a result
of the Sale and Supply of Alcohol Act 2012 allowing for Local Alcohol Policies. This
trend has been in direct response to police and community concerns regarding
health, public safety, and noise levels in urban areas. This issue will continue to
challenge the sector over the coming decade.
5. DEMOGRAPHICS
This chapter describes the demographic characteristics of employees in the cafs,
bars and restaurants sector. It draws heavily on the 2006 and 2013 population
census.
Age
The cafs, bars and restaurants sector has a much higher proportion of younger (15-
24 years) workers than the national economy. More than 40% of employees in the
sector are under the age of 25 compared with 14% in the national economy. The
number of relatively low-skilled, part time jobs in the cafs, bars and restaurants
sector is attractive to young workers who are able to fit their jobs around study.
Table 12. Employment by 5-year age group in the cafs, bars and restaurants
sector
Age Group Employment % of Total NZ % of Total
2006 2013 2006 2013 2013
15-19 17,276 14,173 24.1% 18.6% 4.8%
20-24 14,541 16,528 20.3% 21.7% 9.1%
25-29 7,997 9,933 11.2% 13.0% 9.1%
30-34 6,423 7,621 9.0% 10.0% 9.2%
35-39 5,657 5,837 7.9% 7.7% 9.9%
40-44 5,667 5,736 7.9% 7.5% 11.7%
45-49 5,001 5,054 7.0% 6.6% 11.8%
50-54 3,747 4,498 5.2% 5.9% 11.6%
55-59 2,939 3,155 4.1% 4.1% 9.5%
60-64 1,581 2,128 2.2% 2.8% 7.4%
65+ 828 1,458 1.2% 1.9% 5.9%
Total 71,658 76,121 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Source: Statistics NZ and Infometrics
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+
Source: Statistics NZ and Infometrics
20 Industry profile: Cafs, Bars and Restaurants sector
Figure 9. Employment by 5-year age group in the cafs, bars and restaurants
sector
20,000
2006
18,000
2013
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+
Source: Statistics NZ and Infometrics
Gender
There were more female than male workers in the cafs, bars and restaurants
sector in 2013. Females accounted for 57.4% of total employment compared with
only 47.1% in the national economy. The share of female workers decreased from
61.0% to 57.4% between March 2006 and March 2013. This may be related to the
different experience between females and males during the recession following the
Global Financial Crisis. Males were more adversely affected in the wider economy
due to job losses in industries in which males are concentrated such as construction
and manufacturing. The relative increase in availability of males may have increased
the relative number of males to females applying for jobs in the cafs, bars and
restaurants sector.
Table 13. Employment by gender in the cafs, bars and restaurants sector
Gender Employment % of Total NZ% of Total
2006 2013 2006 2013 2013
Female 43,687 43,693 61.0% 57.4% 47.1%
Male 27,971 32,427 39.0% 42.6% 52.9%
Total 71,658 76,121 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Source: Statistics NZ and Infometrics
Industry profile: Cafs, Bars and Restaurants sector 21
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Female Male
Source: Statistics NZ and Infometrics
50,000
2006
45,000
2013
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Female Male
Source: Statistics NZ and Infometrics
Highest qualification
Almost 60% of employees in the cafs, bars and restaurants sector had no post
school qualifications in 2013. This was a significantly higher proportion than in the
national economy (43.4%).
Average training levels increased between 2006 and 2013 with the number of
workers without a qualification falling from 65.5% to 57.0%. At the other end of the
spectrum the number of workers with a degree or higher increased from 9.4% to
12.3% over the seven year period. This may be a consequence of young graduates
not being able to find suitable employment in their chosen fields and being required
to accept lower skilled work in the cafs, bars and restaurants sector.
22 Industry profile: Cafs, Bars and Restaurants sector
Table 14. Employment by highest qualification in the cafs, bars and restaurants
sector
Employment % of Total NZ% of Total
Highest qualification
2006 2013 2006 2013 2013
No Post-school Qualification 46,964 43,371 65.5% 57.0% 43.4%
Level 1, 2 or 3 Certificate 5,899 4,562 8.2% 6.0% 3.5%
Level 4 Certificate 5,103 5,522 7.1% 7.3% 11.2%
Level 5 and 6 diploma 4,452 6,454 6.2% 8.5% 10.0%
Degrees, level 7 quals and higher 6,737 9,363 9.4% 12.3% 23.9%
Not Elsewhere Included 2,503 6,848 3.5% 9.0% 7.9%
Total 71,658 76,121 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Source: Statistics NZ and Infometrics
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
No Qual Level 1-3 Level 4 Level 5&6 Degree & higher NE
Source: Statistics NZ and Infometrics
Industry profile: Cafs, Bars and Restaurants sector 23
Figure 13. Employment by highest qualification in the cafs, bars and restaurants
sector
50,000
2006
45,000
2013
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
No Qual Level 1-3 Level 4 Level 5&6 Degree & higher NE
Source: Statistics NZ and Infometrics
Ethnicity
The majority (65.7%) of employees in the cafs, bars and restaurants sector in 2013
were of European ethnicity. This was the same as in 2006. Asians are highly
represented in the cafs, bars and restaurants sector accounting for 24.3% of
employees compared with 11.1% in the national economy. The Asian share of
employment increased rapidly from 17.2% in 2006. Mori account for 12.1% of
employees and Pasifika for 4.4%.
The decrease in employment of workers in the Other category would have been
influenced by the substantial decrease in the number of individuals who identified
themselves as New Zealanders in the 2013 census compared with the 2006 census.
Figure 14. Employment by ethnicity, cafs, bars and restaurants sector and New
Zealand, 2013
90.0%
Cafs, Bars and Restaurants
80.0%
New Zealand
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
European Mori Pasifika Asian Other
Source: Statistics NZ and Infometrics
60,000
2006
2013
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
European Mori Pasifika Asian Other
Source: Statistics NZ and Infometrics
Industry profile: Cafs, Bars and Restaurants sector 25
Country of birth
In 2013, New Zealand-born workers represented 60.7% of the workforce in the
cafs, bars and restaurants sector. This was down from 69% in 2006. The share of
workers born in Asia increased from 14.9% to 21.5% over the same period while the
share of workers born in Europe increased from 6.7% to 8.2%.
The cafs, bars and restaurants sector employed relatively fewer New Zealand born
workers compared to all industries in 2013. These workers comprised 71.7% of all
workers in all industries while they represented 60.7% in the cafs, bars and
restaurants sector. There are relatively more workers born in Asia working in the
cafs, bars and restaurants sector than in all industries.
Figure 16. Employment by country of birth, cafs, bars and restaurants sector and
New Zealand, 2013
80.0%
Cafs, Bars and Restaurants
70.0%
60.0% New Zealand
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Figure 17. Employment by country of birth in the cafs, bars and restaurants
sector, 2006 and 2013
60,000
2006
50,000
2013
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
Hours worked
Those working 40-49 hours per week account for the highest share (27.8%) of
employees in the cafs, bars and restaurants sector in 2013. This share has
increased since 2006 by 2.4%. 37.5% of employees the cafs bars and restaurants
sector worked part-time (under 30 hours) in 2013. This proportion was unchanged
from 2006. The share of very high hours worked (50 and more) decreased from
16.8% in 2006 to 14.0% in 2013.
Compared to all industries, the cafs, bars and restaurants sector in 2013 employs
more part-time (less than 30 hours) workers. In all industries the share is 21.1%
compared to 37.5% in the cafs, bars and restaurants sector. The share of very high
hours worked (more than 50) is 14.0% which is 5.3% lower in the cafs, bars and
restaurants sector compared to all industries.
Figure 18. Employment by number of hours worked, cafs, bars and restaurants
sector and New Zealand, 2013
50.0%
Cafs, Bars and Restaurants
45.0% New Zealand
40.0%
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
1-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60 + Not specified
Source: Statistics NZ and Infometrics
28 Industry profile: Cafs, Bars and Restaurants sector
Figure 19. Employment by number of hours worked per week, 2006 and 2013
25,000
2006
2013
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60 + Not specified
Source: Statistics NZ and Infometrics
Industry profile: Cafs, Bars and Restaurants sector 29
6. TRAINING
This chapter describes the characteristics of individuals being trained by ServiceIQ in
2013. The data includes all individuals who were registered at some point during
2013. The last section in the chapter describes enrolments and completions in
provider-based qualifications of relevance to the cafs, bars and restaurants sector.
Cafs, bars and restaurants sector trainees accounted for 5.9% of total ServiceIQ
trainees.
Age
Table 18. Number of trainees by 5-year age group
Number of trainees % of total Employment
Age group Cafs, Bars and Cafs, Bars and Cafs, Bars and
ServiceIQ ServiceIQ
Restaurants Restaurants Restaurants
15-19 194 3,091 13.9% 14.3% 18.6%
20-24 541 6,997 38.7% 32.4% 21.7%
25-29 293 3,827 20.9% 17.7% 13.0%
30-34 136 2,084 9.7% 9.7% 10.0%
35-39 76 1,425 5.4% 6.6% 7.7%
40-44 41 1,214 2.9% 5.6% 7.5%
45-49 52 993 3.7% 4.6% 6.6%
50-54 29 873 2.1% 4.0% 5.9%
55-59 22 606 1.6% 2.8% 4.1%
60+ 15 479 1.1% 2.2% 4.7%
Total 1,399 21,589 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Source: ServiceIQ
The average age of trainees in the cafs, bars and restaurants sector was 27 which
is the same as the ServiceIQ sector as a whole. Approximately 47.5% of cafs, bars
and restaurants trainees are 25 years and over, compared with 53.3% in the
ServiceIQ sector as a whole.
There are some differences between the age profile of cafs, bars and restaurants
sector trainees and the persons employed in the sector. While 52% of trainees are
under 25-years of age about 40% of employees in the sector are under 25.
30 Industry profile: Cafs, Bars and Restaurants sector
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60+
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0%
Source: ServiceIQ
Industry profile: Cafs, Bars and Restaurants sector 31
Gender
Females account for a higher proportion of trainees in the cafs, bars and
restaurants sector than males. Approximately 55.8% of cafs, bars and restaurants
sector trainees are female, compared with 53.5% in the ServiceIQ sector as a whole.
The gender profile of trainees in the cafs, bars and restaurants sector is quite
similar to the employment profile with females accounting for 57.4% of employees
and 55.8% of trainees.
Female
Male
Unknown
Source: ServiceIQ
32 Industry profile: Cafs, Bars and Restaurants sector
Ethnicity
European is the largest ethnic group among trainees in the cafs, bars and
restaurants sector accounting for 59.3% of trainees. This is a higher percentage than
in ServiceIQ as a whole, in which they account for 50.9% of trainees. Within the
cafs, bars and restaurants sector the Asian group accounts for 17.3% of trainees
and Mori accounts for 13.6%.
European
Mori
Pasifika
Asian
Other
Unknown
Source: ServiceIQ
Industry profile: Cafs, Bars and Restaurants sector 33
Level of study
The majority (84.3%), of trainees in the cafs, bars and restaurants sector are
studying towards level 3 qualifications. By contrast, 21.6% of trainees across the
whole of ServiceIQ are studying for level 3 qualifications. Only 14.5% of trainees in
the cafs, bars and restaurants sector are studying at level 4 and above. One of
Governments Better Public Service targets is to get 55 percent of 25-34 year olds
with level 4 qualifications and above by 2017.
Source: ServiceIQ
34 Industry profile: Cafs, Bars and Restaurants sector
Region
The majority of training occurs in the major population centres. A high proportion
of cafs, bars and restaurants sector trainees are located in Auckland (47.0%) which
compares with 40.5% for all ServiceIQ trainees. The next highest concentrations are
in Canterbury (15.0%), followed by Waikato and Wellington (both at 6.9%).
Trainees are overrepresented in Auckland relative to employment in the region.
Nearly half of all trainees are located in Auckland whereas only slightly more than
35% of cafs, bars and restaurants sector employment is in that region. Canterbury
also has a significantly higher proportion of trainees than employment.
Auckland
Canterbury
Waikato
Wellington
Bay of Plenty
Otago
Manawatu-Wanganui
Nelson-Tasman-Marl
Gisborne-Hawke's Bay
Southland
Taranaki
Northland
West Coast
Source: ServiceIQ
Domain
Domain is the lowest order of classification within the NZ Qualifications Framework
and represents a cohesive cluster of similar unit standards.
The highest proportion of the cafs, bars and restaurants sector's trainees is
studying for qualifications in the food and beverage service domain (41.3%). The
next highest concentrations are in the hospitality (40.9%) and cookery (16.1%)
domains.
Provider-based training
This section shows enrolments and completions in provider-based qualifications of
relevance to the cafs, bars and restaurants sector. It includes all fields of studies of
relevance to the cafs, bars and restaurants sector. This means that some fields
may be of relevance to other ServiceIQ sectors and are included in the statistics
provided for those sectors.
Fields of study included in the above statistics are:
Hospitality
Food and Beverage Service
Cookery
Food and Hospitality (N.E.C., mixed or N.F.D.)
7. APPENDIX A. METHODOLOGY
Cafs and Restaurants (H451100) consists of units mainly engaged in providing food
and non-alcoholic beverage services for consumption on the premises. Customers
generally order and are served while seated (i.e. waiter/waitress service) and pay
after eating.
Pubs, Taverns and Bars (H452000) consists of hotels, bars or similar units (except
hospitality clubs) mainly engaged in serving alcoholic beverages for consumption on
the premises, or in selling alcoholic beverages both for consumption on and off the
premises. These units may also provide food services and/or present live
entertainment.
Occupations
In the above example we have defined a hypothetical ITO sector (the shaded cells)
as consisting of Industry 2 and Occupations C and D. Total employment in the
sector-is calculated as 50+43+29=122. Total employment in each of the ServiceIQ
sectors is calculated using actual industry-occupation matrices for New Zealand.
Infometrics has compiled a time series (2000-2013) of industry-occupation matrices
for the New Zealand economy using 490 industries (level 5 industries of the
ANZSIC06 industrial classification) and 1000 occupations (level 5 of the ANZSCO
occupational classification) which were used for the estimation of employment in
the ServiceIQ sectors.
The net flow from an occupation was estimated as the sum of the change in the size
of each age cohorts between 2001 and 2006. If the size of the cohort decreased
then there has been an outflow, whereas if the cohort increased the net outflow is
equal to zero. This is true if the number of people employed in an occupation is
expanding. However, if employment is decreasing then the net outflow is equal to
sum of outflows less the size of the employment decline. Total net outflow from an
occupation is estimated by summing the net outflow from each age cohort. The
five year net demand replacement rate is estimated by dividing the total net
outflow by employment in the occupation in 2001. This rate is converted to an
annual rate.
The above method provides historical estimates of net replacement demand rates
for each occupation over the period 2001 to 2006. In order to estimate the total
number of job openings in future we have drawn on trends in national level
forecasts estimated by the Department of Labour.
3
Shah C and Burke G. 2001. Occupational replacement demand in Australia. International Journal of
Manpower, Vol. 22, No. 7, pp. 648-663. Centre for the Economics of Education and Training, Monash
University.
40 Industry profile: Cafs, Bars and Restaurants sector
The model estimates employment in recent quarters for which LEED is not available
by using time series analysis. The model draws on the relationships between
industry performance at the territorial authority level and national level and recent
trends in industry performance.
The RIOM provides estimates of the number of people employed in 480 industries
in each region and territorial authority for each quarter since March 1999.
Data from the RIOM has the following advantages over data from Business
Demography.
The main applications of principle component or factor analytic techniques are: (1)
to reduce the number of variables and (2) to detect structure in the relationships
between variables, that is to classify variables. Therefore, factor analysis is applied
as a data reduction or structure detection method.
In the current context, principle component analysis is used to separate a panel of
data into its principal cross-sectional components and their associated time domain
components. For example, one might have a panel of quarterly industrial
production data that has been converted into measures of each industrys share of
GDP, i.e the share for the i-th industry in quarter t can be presented as:
Without going into the detailed mathematics, the aim of the approach is to use
Eigen Values and Eigen Vectors to decompose the matrix of s into i independent
(orthogonal) cross-sectional (I x 1) factor vectors ( ( )) each with an associated (1
x T) time-varying parameter-vector { }. If ( ) is the original (I x T) matrix of
data, one can reproduce the matrix by simple matrix multiplication:
( ) ( ) ( )
The critical issues here are that each of the factor vectors ( )are orthogonal and
that one can often explain most of the variation in the matrix with a small subset of
the factor vectors, eg greater than 90% of the variation might be explained by 3-4 of
the factor vectors. This means that once we have undertaken the principle
component analysis we can obtain reasonable forecasts by concentrating on just
the 3-4 key factors and conducting independent forecasts of their associated time-
varying parameter-vectors{ }.
ServiceIQ
Level 14 E: intel@ServiceIQ.org.nz
Plimmer Towers T: 0800 863 693
26 Gilmer Terrace W: ServiceIQ.org.nz
Wellington 6011
Infometrics
Level 20 E: economics@infometrics.co.nz
Plimmer Towers T: (04) 473 0630
26 Gilmer Terrace W: infometrics.co.nz
Wellington 6011