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By Holli Riebeek - Design by Robert Simmon - May 11, 2007 The of This Fact Sheet, Published in 2002 and Written by John Weier, Is Archived As A PDF
By Holli Riebeek - Design by Robert Simmon - May 11, 2007 The of This Fact Sheet, Published in 2002 and Written by John Weier, Is Archived As A PDF
This article may contain outdated information. The most recent version of the Earth Observatory's
Global Warming Factsheet is available at the following URL:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GlobalWarming/
Far from being some future fear, global warming is The effects of global warming
are already being felt
happening now, and scientists have evidence that worldwide. The Larsen-B Ice
humans are to blame. For decades, cars and factories Shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula
collapsed over 35 days in early
have spewed billions of tons of greenhouse gases into 2002, prompted by 3C of
the atmosphere, and these gases caused temperatures warming since the 1940s. (NASA
image by Jesse Allen, based on
to rise between 0.6C and 0.9C (1.08F to 1.62F) MODIS data.)
over the past century. The rate of warming in the last
50 years was double the rate observed over the last
100 years. Temperatures are certain to go up further.
Cars, factories, and power
plants pump billions of tons of
carbon dioxide into the
atmosphere every year. Since
1750, carbon dioxide levels
have increased 35 percent,
while temperatures have gone
up between 0.6C and 0.9C.
Scientists have very high
confidence that increased
concentrations of greenhouse
gases are causing the planet to
warm. (Photograph 2002
Travel Geographer. NASA
graphs by Robert Simmon,
based on carbon dioxide data
from Dr. Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL
and temperature data from
NASA Goddard Institute for
Space Studies.)
In the future, it is very likely that rising temperatures One inevitable consequence of
global warming is sea-level rise.
will lead to more frequent heat waves, and virtually In the face of higher sea levels
certain that the seas will rise, which could leave low- and more intense storms,
coastal communities face
lying nations awash in seawater. Warmer greater risk of rapid beach
erosion and damage from
temperatures will alter weather patterns, making it destructive storms like the
likely that there will be more intense droughts and intense noreaster of April 2007.
(Photograph 2007
more intense rain events. Moreover, global warming metimbers2000.)
will last thousands of years. To gain an understanding
of how global warming might impact humanity, it is
of how global warming might impact humanity, it is
necessary to understand what global warming is, how
scientists measure it, and how forecasts for the future
are made.
Some of this outgoing radiation, however, is re- Land, air, and oceans absorb
most of the energy that comes
absorbed by water vapor, carbon dioxide, and other from the Sun (yellow arrows,
gases in the atmosphere (called greenhouse gases left), and the rest is reflected
back into space. The land and
because of their heat-trapping capacity) and is then oceans re-emit the energy they
re-radiated back toward the Earths surface. On the absorb (red arrows, right) in the
form of heat, which is then
whole, this re-absorption process is good. If there absorbed by greenhouse gases
were no greenhouse gases or clouds in the in the atmosphere. In turn,
greenhouse gases re-emit the
atmosphere, the Earths average surface temperature heat, sending it back to the
would be a very chilly -18C (0F) instead of the surface. This heat-trapping
effect keeps the Earth
comfortable 15C (59F) that it is today. comfortably warm, but the
build-up of greenhouse gases
intensifies the effect, driving
What has scientists concerned now is that over the temperatures up. (Image
past 250 years humans have been artificially raising adapted from Kiel and
Trenberth, 1997, by Debbi
the concentration of greenhouse gases in the McLean.)
atmosphere at an ever-increasing rate. By 2004,
humans were pumping out over 8 billion tons of
carbon dioxide per year. Some of it was absorbed by
sinks like forests or the ocean, and the rest
accumulated in the atmosphere. We produce millions
of pounds of methane by allowing our trash to
decompose in landfills and by breeding large herds of
methane-belching cattle. Nitrogen-based fertilizers
and other soil management practices lead to the
release of nitrous oxide into the atmosphere.
Anthropogenic Greenhouse gases Warming Gases absorb energy emitted by Burning fossil fuels Carbon
the Earth, re-radiating heat in factories and Cycle
toward the surface. vehicles, fertilizers,
decomposing trash,
livestock
Surface Albedo Cooling Albedo is the percent of sunlight Land use and soot Arctic
the surface reflects. on snow Reflection;
Deforestation increases albedo. Earths
Soot that falls on snow and ice Albedo in
reduces albedo. The effect of Decline
forest loss outweighs the effect
of the soot, resulting in net
cooling.
Aerosols (particle pollution) Cooling Particles in the atmosphere Volcanoes, burning Aerosols &
shade the Earths surface, fossil fuel, other Climate
offsetting global warming as human sources, Change
much as 40 percent. Soot fires, dust
absorbs heat and warms the
atmosphere.
Aerosols (Cloud albedo effect) Cooling Because human-produced Clouds formed Clouds are
aerosols are smaller and more around pollution Cooler than
numerous than natural aerosols, released by cars, Smoke;
they increase the amount and factories, power Changing
brightness of clouds. plants, etc. Our Weather
One
Smokestack
at a Time
Solar Variability Warming and An increase in sunlight brings Natural solar cycles ACRIMSAT;
Cooling more energy to the Earth and Solar Max;
vice-versa. SORCE;
Under a
Variable Sun
But why do scientists trust results from climate Models integrate the many
factors that influence Earths
models when models seem to have so much trouble climate to determine how they
forecasting the weather? It turns out that trends are work together to create
todays climate and how they
easier to predict than specific events. Weather is a might influence climate
change in the future.
short-term, small-scale set of measurements of
environmental conditions, while climate is the
average of those conditions over a large area for a
long time. The difference between predicting weather
and climate is similar to the difference between
predicting when a particular person will die versus
calculating the average life span of an entire
population. Given the large number of variables that
influence conditions in Earths lower atmosphere, and
given that chaos also plays a larger role on shorter
and smaller scales of time and space, weather is
much harder to predict than the averages that make up
climate.
Along with paleoclimate data, these sources reveal About half the carbon dioxide
emitted into the air from
that the planet has been warming for at least the last burning fossil fuels dissolves in
400 years, and possibly the last 1000 years. As of the ocean. While this process
reduces the amount of
now, warming after 1950 cannot be explained without greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere, it raises the acidity
accounting for greenhouse gases; natural influences of ocean water (just like
such as volcanic eruptions or changes in the Suns carbonated water, which is
acidic). This map shows the
output cannot account for the observed temperatures total amount of human-made
changes. carbon dioxide in ocean water
from the surface to the sea
floor. Blue areas have low
Occasional violent volcanic eruptions, such as Mt. amounts, while yellow regions
Pinatubo, pump gases like sulfur dioxide and aerosols are rich in anthropogenic
carbon dioxide. High amounts
high into the atmosphere where they can linger for occur where currents carry the
carbon-dioxide-rich surface
more than a year, reflecting sunlight and shading water into the ocean depths.
Earths surface. The cooling influence of this aerosol (Map adapted from Sabine et
al., 2004.)
shade is greater than the warming influence of the
volcanoes greenhouse gas emissions, and therefore
such eruptions cannot account for the recent warming
trend.
The only viable explanation for warming after 1950 is Satellite measurements of the
Suns activity since 1978 reveal
an increase in greenhouse gases. It is well established the Suns eleven-year sunspot
theoretically why carbon dioxide, methane, and other cycle. When the Sun is more
active, it sends slightly more
greenhouse gases should heat the planet, and energy to the Earth, and
observations show that they have. energy levels dip when the Sun
is quieter. Though the Suns
activity has varied over the
past three decades, the
variation is too small to explain
the rapid warming seen on
Earth during the same period.
(Graph adapted from the
PMOD World Radiation
Center.)
At first glance, these numbers probably do not seem Global warming will not affect
all places on Earth the same
threatening. After all, temperatures typically change a way. Climate models predict
few tens of degrees whenever a storm front moves that warming will be greatest in
the Arctic and over land.
through. Such temperature changes, however, Models also give a range of
represent day-to-day regional fluctuations. When temperature predictions based
on different emission scenarios.
surface temperatures are averaged over the entire If humans limit greenhouse gas
globe for extended periods of time, it turns out that emissions (low growth), then the
temperature change over the
the average is remarkably stable. Not since the end of next century will be smaller than
the last ice age 20,000 years ago, when Earth warmed the change predicted if
the last ice age 20,000 years ago, when Earth warmed the change predicted if
humans do not limit emissions
about 5C, has the average surface temperature (high growth). (2007 IPCC
changed as dramatically as the 2C to 6C change
WG1 AR-4.)
Phenomena and direction of trend Likelihood that trend occurred Likelihood of a human Likelihood of
in late 20 th century contribution to observed trend future trends
Warmer and fewer cold days and Very likely Likely Virtually certain
nights over most land areas
Warmer and more frequent hot days Very likely Likely (nights) Virtually certain
and nights over most land areas
Warm spells/heat waves. Frequency Likely More likely than not Very likely
increases over most land areas
Heavy precipitation events. Frequency Likely More likely than not Very likely
(or proportion of total rainfall from
heavy falls) increases over most areas
Area affected by droughts increases Likely in many regions since More likely than not Likely
1970s
Intense tropical cyclone activity Likely in some regions since More likely than not Likely
increases 1970
Increased incidence of extreme high Likely More likely than not Likely
sea level (excludes tsunamis)
References
Links:
Global Warming Questions & Answers
Real Climate
Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years
U.S. Climate Change Science Program
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Climate Change Website
the Earth Observatory is part of the EOS Project Science Office located at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center