Populations in

Southwestern MA
and how they influence house values

Joe Roque, Seth Carne

Regional Analysis

There is about 633,115 people in Western Massachusetts as of 2013. That is up

from 615,402 in 2000. The population has been increasing over the years and so has the
total residential house value. The house value has increased around 5.8 million dollars
from 2000 to 2013. The house value was $7,934,171in 2000 compared to 13,699,387 in
2013. The house value increased by 59 percent. Some of the largest cities and towns in
Southwestern Massachusetts include Springfield, Chicopee, Westfield, Amherst, West
Springfield, and Northampton. All of these cities and towns have a population over 20
thousand residents.
The western part of Massachusetts is an area that is sprawling. In Western
Massachusetts there are medium size urban cities and country towns. The counties in
southwestern Massachusetts include Berkshire, Franklin, and Hampden. According to the
Boston Globe, there are about 102 people per square mile in Franklin County, about 142
in Berkshire County, 300 in Hampshire County, and 751 in Hampden County, census
figures show.(Johnson)
Some other demographics for Western Massachusetts include the diversity of the
population over the last couple of years. In Hampden County alone the population of
Hispanics are up more than five percent from 2010 to 2012. According to MassLive, in
Hampden County the number of African Americans was up 1.46 percent over the three
years from 48,425 to 49,130.(Kinney) The census stated that the younger population is
growing in Hampden county. 5.9 percent of Hampden County is below the age of five.
Hampden County is only second to Boston regarding having the youngest population in
Massachusetts. Since Hampden County has a young population, the education system is
changing to help the needs for the students and parents.

Hypothesis

Based in the influx of populations in southwestern Massachusetts, the prediction is

that population growth will increase the value of houses in southwestern Massachusetts.
The independent variables that will be tested are populations, total number of houses, and
median household income. The dependent variable is the median house value.

Descriptives

The town with lowest population in 2000 and 2010 was Tyringham. The city
with the highest population in 2000 and 2010 was Springfield. The town with the lowest
number of houses in 2000 was Washington, and in 2010, Tyringham. The city with the
highest total number of houses for 2000 and 2010 was Springfield. Table 1 shows the
increasing relationship between the median house value and income. Both rose over 50%,
Value increased 57% and Income increased by 76%.

Table 1
Descriptive Statistics

N Mean

MedianHouseValue2000 50 153,672.00
MedianHouseValue2013 50 268,717.70
EstimatedMedianHouseholdI
50 49,077.26
ncome2000
EstimatedMedianHouseholdI
50 64,806.28
ncome2013
Valid N (listwise) 50
Correlations

Table 2 shows the correlations based on the differences of the variables. Popdif is
the total population difference between 2000 and 2013. Housedif is the difference in
change of total number of houses between 2000 and 2010. Housevaldif is the difference in
total house value between 2000 and 2013. Incomedif is the difference in total income
between 2000 and 2013. The table shows that there is a relation between the rise in
population and the increase of number of houses, but it also shows that there is a strong
correlation between house value and income. The housing difference and population
difference are significant. Also the housing value difference and the income difference were
also significant.

Table 2
Figure 1 shows a weak negative correlation between Population in 2000 and Median
House Value in 2000. There is a negative correlation because all of the data is spread out

Figure 1
 Figure 2 shows that there is a strong positive correlation for the population 2010
and total houses 2010. Also all the values are close together and are not spread out

Figure 2

Table 3 is a regression showing that the income has the most significant difference.
Both the population difference and the housing difference are negative which means both
are not significant. Table 4 is reinstating that the only significant coefficient is the income
difference.

Table 3

Coefficientsa

Standardized
Unstandardized Coefficients Coefficients

Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig.

1 (Constant) 83,339.177 10,042.992 8.298 .000

incomedif 2.016 .589 .443 3.421 .001

a. Dependent Variable: housevaldif

Table 4

Table 5 shows the median House Value in 2000 had a bigger mean difference than
the Median House value in 2013. The estimated median household income in 2013 had a
bigger mean difference than the estimated median household in 2000. The Population was
higher in 2013 than in 2000

Table 5
Table 6 shows the increase in mean values, as well as the deviation and the standard error for the
paired variables. The table magnifies the significant increases of house value and income. The
variance in value and income are higher than that of population.

Table 6

Paired Samples Statistics

Mean N Std. Deviation Std. Error Mean

Pair 1 Pop2000 12,308.040 50 23,772.5631 3,361.9481

EstimatedPop.2013 12,662.300 50 24,189.7520 3,420.9475

Pair 2 MedianHouseValue2000 153,672.00 50 38,568.709 5,454.439
MedianHouseValue2013 26,8717.70 50 67,197.923 9,503.221
Pair 3 EstimatedMedianHouseholdI
49,077.26 50 9,603.034 1,358.074
ncome2000

EstimatedMedianHouseholdI
64,806.28 50 15,062.364 2,130.140
ncome2013
 Figure 3 and Figure 4 shows that there is a weak correlations between the
population in 2000 and 2013 and the estimated median Household Income in 2000 and
2013. Also, the graphs are similar which means not much has changed within those 13
years.

Figure 3
Figure 4

Results
 The hypothesis was supported, populations did have an effect on house values.
Though through testing, another variable proved to be the more prominent in effecting
house value. With an increase of population, there follows an increase of income. It is
provided then that the increase of income is what drove the increase of value. It can be
presumed that with the increase of income, households could either buy more expensive
houses, or spend more money on their own home, increasing the value.

Limitations

The data specific to the topic was limited to only a small percentage of data that
could be found. Some data that would create a more accurate depiction was not accessible
due to the constraints of the Census Bureau. The censuses that were used were not exact
in their description of what the data actually was. The number of houses data found was
not specific as to what was considered a house. The data could potentially contain
numbers of apartments or condos. Again, constraints of unfound data handicapped our
research and data showing the flux of value and income. Data was not available for the in-
between years.

Discussion

Exponential growth in population, house, value, and income was seen in the
southwestern region of Massachusetts between 2000 and 2013; there was an increase of
about 59% overall. Could this be a pattern for the future? If the populations continue to
increase at this rate, the population in the region could be upwards of 651,000 people and
a value of over $19,000,000 in 2026. More currently, the housing market has improved
from 2014 to 2015. In Hampden County, sales were up only 0.4 percent with one more
house being sold in 2015 than 2014. In April 2014, 237 houses were sold and in April
2015, 238 houses were sold. The median price was up 3.3 percent. Franklin County had
more of an increase in sales between 2014 and 2015. There was a 16.7 percent increase
in sales and the median price was up 2.6 percent.
What drives people to move to Western Massachusetts? Could it be the growth in
business, difference of scenery, or affordable house values? More research could show us
what categories drive people to come and live in the southwestern region of
Massachusetts.
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Appendix A