4/15/2017 PrintArticle:Carbonpricehelpedcurbemissions,ANUstudyfinds

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Carbonpricehelpedcurbemissions,ANUstudyfinds
PeterHannam
Published:July17,20141:52PM

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Australiacutcarbondioxideemissionsfromitselectricitysectorbyasmuchas17milliontonnesbecauseofthecarbon
priceandwouldhavecurbedmorehadindustryexpectedthepricetobepermanent,accordingtoanAustralianNational
Universitystudy.

Thereport,duetobesubmittedforpeerreviewedpublication,foundthetwoyearsofthecarbonpricehadadiscernible
impactonemissionsevenassumingconservativeresponsesbyconsumersandbusinesses.

Weseethecarbonpricedoingwhatitwasmeanttodo,andwhatitwasexpectedtodo,namelydampendemandandshift
thesupplyfromdirtiertocleanersourcesofelectricity,saidAssociateProfessorFrankJotzo,directoroftheCentrefor
ClimateEconomicsandPolicy,andacoauthorofthereportwiththecentresMariannaOGorman.

ThepapercomesastheSenatevotedonThursdaytobringalmostfiveyearsofCoalitioncampaigningagainstapriceon
carbontoanendbyrepealingthetax.LaborandtheGreenssaytheywillcontinuetopushforapriceonemissions.

TheANUreport,whichusedofficialmarketdatatotheendofJune,foundthedropinpowerdemandattributedtothe
carbonpricewasbetween2.5and4.2terawatthoursperyear,orabout1.3to2.3percentoftheNationalElectricity
Marketservingabout80percentofAustraliaspopulation.

Emissionsintensivebrownandblackcoalfiredpowergeneratorscutoutput,withabout4gigawattsofcapacitytaken
offline.TheemissionsintensityofNEMsupplydroppedbetween16and28kilogramsofcarbondioxidepermegawatt
hourofsupply,underscoringtheroleofcarbonpricingratherthanslumpingdemandincurbingpollution,thepapersaid.

However,investorsdoubtsthatthecarbontaxwouldlastfosteredinpartbythenoppositionleaderTonyAbbottsblood
oathtorepealitiftheCoalitiontookofficemeanthighemissionsgeneratorsweremothballedratherthanpermanently
closed.

Wedexpecttheimpactofthecarbonpricewouldhavebeenlarger,perhapsfarlarger,iftherehadbeenanexpectation
thatthecarbonpricewouldhavecontinued,ProfessorJotzosaid.

Fallingdemand

EnvironmentMinisterGregHunthassaidrepeatedlythatthecarbontaxwasineffective,statingAustraliastotalemissions
fell0.1percentinthefirstyear.

Morerecentfigures,though,showtheemissionsdropaccelerated,with2013s0.8percenteconomywidefallthelargest
annualreductioninthe24yearsofmonitoring.Inthepowersector,theindustrymostdirectlycoveredbythecarbonprice,
emissionsfell5percent.

AsconfirmedbyOriginEnergymanagingdirectorGrantKing,thereareotherfactorsresultinginloweremissionsinthe
electricitysectorincludinglowerdemand,theimpactofthe[RenewableEnergyTarget],floodingattheYallournpower
stationandincreasedhydrooutput,aspokesmanforMrHuntsaid.

However,theANUpapertakesthosefactorsintoaccountinestimatingthecarbonpriceimpact,ProfessorJotzosaid.

Rather,theimpactofthecarbonpriceisprobablyunderstated.Thehighlypoliticiseddebateprecededitsimplementation
byaboutayear,promptingenergyconsumerstofocusmoreonelectricitycostsandpresumablytobeginmakingsavings
wellbeforethetaxbegan.

Wewouldexpectpoliticallymotivatedtalk...maywellhavehadalargeimpactonpeoplespowerusagepatterns,
ProfessorJotzosaid.

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4/15/2017 PrintArticle:Carbonpricehelpedcurbemissions,ANUstudyfinds

Reversingcourse

Therepealofthecarbontaxwillseeapartialreversalofemissionsreductions,particularlyonthesupplysideasgenerators
switchbacktocoal.Risinggasprices,unrelatedtocarbonpricing,willaddtodemandforcoalfiredpowergeneration.

Consumers,though,arelikelytohavelockedinmanyoftheirenergysavings,havingboughtmorepowerthriftyfridges
andotherappliances,ProfessorJotzosaid.

Globally,thegovernmentsreversaloncarbonpricingsendsaverynegativesignaltoothernationsweighingup
emissionstradingschemes,hesaid.Someofthem,suchasChina,hadstudiedandadoptedelementsofAustralias
program.

TheonlythingthatwentwronginAustraliawasthepoliticsofclimatechangepolicy,ProfessorJotzosaid.Therewas
nothinginherentlywrongwithscheme.

Thisstorywasfoundat:http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climatechange/carbonpricehelpedcurbemissionsanustudyfinds20140717
ztuf6.html

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