13.
4 AGGREGATE EFFECTS OF THE GREAT LAKES
ON THE INTENSITY AND PROPAGATION OF FRONTS DURING THE WARM SEASON
Peter J. Sousounis*
Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Space Sciences Department
University of Michigan
Ann Arbor, Michigan
1. INTRODUCTION
A considerable amount of research has been done
historically to explore the impacts of the Great Lakes on
regional weather during cold conditions, when the lake
surfaces are warmer than the overlying air. By far the
most celebrated of these impacts comes from lake
effect storms. It is not an overstatement to say that
perhaps hundreds of studies (e.g., Mitchell 1921,
Braham 1983 to name but two) have been conducted to
examine various aspects of this phenomenon.
Considerably fewer studies have been conducted to
examine the larger scale impacts of the Great Lakes.
Sousounis and Fritsch (1994) demonstrated using with-
lake and no-lake numerical simulations how the Great
Lakes influence synoptic scale low and high pressure
systems in late fall and winter. They showed how heat
and moisture fluxes from the lakes to the atmosphere
during cold air conditions (e.g., cold air outbreaks) lead
to the development of a meso-a scale vortex over the
region. Weiss and Sousounis (1999) found that 25-40
such vortices occur each year and thus have a
significant influence on the winter climate of the region.
The impacts of the Great Lakes on regional
weather during the warm season have only been
studied very sparingly. For example, Cox (1917) noted
almost a century ago that the Great Lakes seem to
attract and strengthen highs in the summer. Other
studies have since noted the relatively high frequency of
Great Lakes anticyclones in summer, but the
mechanisms have never been explored. An obvious
hypothesis is that the relatively cool water causes a
transfer of heat and moisture from the air to the lakes,
which cools, dries, and stabilizes the air and
hydrostatically increases the sea-level pressure over the
region. For example, in early summer, air temperatures
can exceed 30 C and lake temperatures can be less
than 10 C, making for a 20+ C temperature difference
similar in magnitude to what can exist in winter! The
resulting surface fluxes (combined sensible and latent)
can exceed 500 Wm-2!
Despite the potential for relatively large surface
fluxes during the summer, a key difference between the
summer and winter seasons as far as lake effects go is
that the summer season is a stable season e.g., cool
water underneath warm air - so that the cooling of the
atmosphere by the lakes does not get transferred very
deeply into the atmosphere. This limitation is somewhat
*Corresponding Author Address: Dr. Peter J. Sousounis,
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2143.
Email: sousou@umich.edu.
countered by the fact that shallow (convergence)
boundaries are sometimes all that is needed to initiate
deep and intense convection.
The development of thunderstorms in weakly
sheared environments along lake/sea breeze
boundaries is common and reasonably well understood
(Byers and Rodebush 1948). However, the occasional
evolution of such storms into damaging supercells is
not. Recently, some of the most damaging severe
thunderstorms in Michigan have occurred in such
environments. On July 7, 1996, a severe hail and
windstorm unexpectedly intensified as it encountered a
lake breeze boundary in southeast Lower Michigan. As
this storm developed, a fully loaded Northwest Airlines
747 departing Detroit Metropolitan Airport (DTW) bound
for Tokyo, Japan encountered severe hail during ascent.
The hail damaged the aircraft and shattered several
windows forcing an emergency landing back at DTW.
The storm continued to intensify as it moved into a
heavily populated area with winds in excess of 100 mph.
Damage estimates from this storm totaled 3 million
dollars. As another example, the July 2, 1997 supercell
outbreak in Michigan may have been influenced by the
Great Lakes. During that outbreak, sixteen tornadoes
and damaging winds in excess of 100 mph occurred in
Michigan, causing numerous deaths and extensive
property damage. Early indications were that squall line
morphology would be the preferred convective system.
However, supercells were the preferred convective
system. It is hypothesized that the Great Lakes may
have altered the low-level wind shear profile to one that
favored supercell development.
While the weak lake-generated boundaries certainly
play a role in convective initiation, it is not known
whether they come from individual lakes or from several
lakes. For example, anticyclonic flow associated with
higher pressure over the region from the lake aggregate
may also enhance convergence or confluence on the
southern or western sides of the lakes. The altered wind
configuration may create a more favorable low level
wind shear profile in addition to providing a stronger
convergence boundary and/or more moisture transport.
Moreover, the processes forced by the Great Lakes may
alter the low level wind profile such that either a pre-
existing mesoscale convective system or a developing
one may evolve differently.
This paper describes some preliminary numerical
simulations that have been performed to evaluate the
impacts of the Great Lakes on surface convergence
boundaries, frontal development, and precipitation
during summertime conditions.
 a b

c H H
d

L L

e f

Fig. 1. Selected FGM output from with-lake (WL) and no-lake (NL) simulations valid at 48 h (12 UTC 24 May 1989).
a) WL and b) NL 48 h precipitation totals (cm) with 0.635 cm contour highlighted. c) WL and d) NL sea level pressure
(2 hPa contour interval). e) WL and f) NL 900 hPa winds.
2. METHODOLOGY
A modeling strategy similar to that used by
Sousounis and Fritsch (1994) was used to examine
summertime effects. Specifically, the Penn
State/National Center for Atmospheric Research
Mesoscale Model Version 3 (MM5V3) was run with
the Great Lakes (WL) and without them (NL) for a
selected case. A coarse grid domain spanning the
eastern two-thirds of the US with 90 km resolution
provided lateral boundary conditions to a fine grid
domain that covered the Great Lakes region with 30 km
resolution. A total of 25 vertical levels were used, with
10 of the levels being located below 700 hPa. The
Burke-Thompson and the Kain-Fritsch schemes were
used to simulate boundary layer processes and
convection respectively on the fine grid mesh.
The case described here occurred during the period
12 UTC 22 May 1989 12 UTC 24 May 1989. The
synoptic features of interest included a short wave at
500 hPa that moved eastward from Iowa to central
Pennsylvania during the 48 h period. At the surface, a
weak low in northeastern Missouri moved eastward, just
south of the Great Lakes, through the Ohio Valley. At
the same time, a surface low in Canada moved
eastward across Hudson Bay, while an attendant cold
front moved across the Great Lakes. Afternoon surface
temperatures ranged from the upper 20s C in the
northern Great Lakes states to the low 20s C across
the Ohio Valley. Lake surface temperatures ranged from
3-4 *C for Lake Superior to 10-12 C for Lake Erie. By
12 UTC on the 24th, the cold front had generated 2-4
mm of precipitation through most of Wisconsin, the
upper peninsula of Michigan, and northwestern lower
Michigan. The low that moved through the Ohio Valley
generated more significant precipitation with 12-18
mm being common along the southern shores of Lakes
Erie and Ontario.
3. RESULTS
The control (WL) simulation agreed well with
observations, except the modeled cold front after 48 h of
simulation was ~200 km farther south and east of the
analyzed one and the modeled surface low in the
southern portion of the domain (Fig. 1c) was ~200 km
inland of the analyzed one that was just east of southern
New Jersey. Simulated precipitation amounts in the WL
simulation also agreed well with observed amounts.
The NL simulation was obtained by respecifying
lake points in both the coarse and fine grid mesh
domains to some other land-use category that was
consistent with that of adjacent (non-lake) points. For
this preliminary attempt, initial substrate temperatures
were not re-specified as they were for the NL
simulations performed by Sousounis and Fritsch (1994).
A comparison of WL and NL results after 48 h of
simulation reveals differences in the precipitation, sea
level pressure, and low level wind, geopotential height,
and temperature fields. Specifically, the NL simulation
reveals a more pronounced surface trough located just
to the north and east of the region (cf. Fig. 1c and d).
Sea level pressure over the central part of the Great
Lakes region (e.g., Michigan) is 1-2 hPa lower than in
the WL simulation. The southern low is shifted several
gridpoints farther to the west and winds on the northern
side of the low are weaker.
The 48 h accumulated WL and NL precipitation
totals reveal consistent differences (cf. Fig. 1a and b).
The NL precipitation shield associated with the cold
front extends ~200 km farther to the east (e.g., covering
the northwestern portion of the lower peninsula of
Michigan) than the WL precipitation shield. This
extension is likely attributable to the better organization
of the surface trough in the NL simulation. Specifically,
low level winds in the NL simulation exhibit more
organized convergence along the trough (cf. Fig. 1e and
f). Slightly higher precipitation amounts along the
southern shores of Lakes Erie and Ontario may be the
result of the mere presence of the lakes but may also be
the result of low level convergence and ascent that has
been enhanced by slightly higher surface pressure over
the central portion of the Great Lakes region.
4. CLOSING REMARKS
Preliminary simulations support the initial
hypothesis that the cooling (and drying) effects of the
Great Lakes on the regional atmosphere during spring
and summer can alter directly the sea level pressure
field enough so that the low level wind field and the
precipitation distributions are subsequently altered over
a lake-aggregate scale region.
An extension and refinement of the current case, as
well as other cases, will be performed and described.
Acknowledgements. This study was supported by NSF
Grant ATM 9908978 to the University of Michigan.
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Byers, H. R., and H. R. Rodebush, 1948: Causes of
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Cox, H. J., 1917: Influence of the Great Lakes upon movement
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Mitchell, C. L., 1921: Snow flurries along eastern shores of
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