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IEA Report 17th April
IEA Report 17th April
IEA Report 17th April
70
BERGEPAINT signs MoU with Chugoku Marine Paints :
The company has entered into an MoU with Chugoku Marine Paints of Japan
50
for cooperation and collaboration in the field of marine and related industrial
Jul-16
Apr-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Sep-16
Mar-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
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Nov-16
paints. The plan is to establish a joint venture company. The MoU also allows
for joint efforts in marketing, supply, purchasing marine related industrial
BINEETA KUMARI paints.
bineeta.kumari@narnolia.com
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report
Narnolia Securities Ltd
Quarterly Performance
Other expenses Financials 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 YoY % QoQ% FY15 FY16 YoY %
saw one-time Net Sales 1,235 1,139 1,246 1,271 1,297 5% 2% 4,322 4,634 7%
hit, which put Other Income 7 11 10 18 8 9% -56% 36 34 -4%
pressure on
COGS 643 575 621 644 684 6% 6% 2,531 2,573 2%
margins though
will not be Employee Cost 71 69 75 76 80 12% 5% 253 281 11%
impacted going Other Expenses 210 225 227 248 227 8% -8% 1,027 1,125 10%
forward. EBITDA 192 156 195 179 184 -4% 3% 511 655 28%
Depreciation 25 24 26 27 27 7% 0% 93 100 8%
Interest 6 5 3 5 4 -23% -13% 50 29 -42%
PBT 168 138 176 165 160 -5% -3% 404 561 39%
Tax 56 47 59 73 52 -7% -28% 139 191 37%
PAT 112 93 120 137 110 -2% -20% 265 370 40%
Margin Performance
Margin % 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 YoY(+/-) QoQ(+/-) FY15 FY16 YoY(+/-)
Gross Margin 48% 50% 50% 49% 47% -1% -2% 41% 44% 3%
EBITDA Margin 16% 14% 16% 14% 14% -1% 0% 12% 14% 2%
PAT Margin 9% 8% 10% 11% 8% -1% -2% 6% 8% 2%
Gross margin down 65 bps impacted by increase in input cost while EBITDA margin was down by 137
bps due to high employee costs (12% YoY) and one time hit of other expenses (8% YoY).
To offset the impact of increase in input cost the company have initiated 3% hike in decorative prices.
The impact of rising crude prices was lower in Decorative segment due to increase in no. of share of
water based paint rather than solvent based paint.
PAT margin down by 100bps YoY due to lower gross margin.
195
192
100
184
179
60 112 120
156
110
154
13% 4%
149
89 93
13% 40 77
50
2%
12% 20
- 12% 0 0%
1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17
Concall Highlights:
Volume growth stood in double digits (10%).
Expects demand to improve going forward.
Confident of volume growth to in the range of 1.5-1.6x to GDP growth.
Tier 1 and 2 cities were impacted more than tier 3 for the company. Tier 3 was better because
favourable monsoon has started showing results.
Growth will be driven by semi urban and rural markets, expansion of distribution network,
innovations and new product launches.
Both in standalone and JV (joint venture) businesses the company added new clients in auto
segment. More clients are expected to be added in the JV.
Berger signed an MoU with Promat (USD3bn company of Belgium) for co-operation in the field
of fire protection and high performance insulation coating in India, Nepal and Bangladesh,
which entails production, distribution and supply of specialised fire resistant coatings. The
segment is very small in the overall industrial business of the company.
The implementation of One Rank One Pension (OROP), Seventh Pay Commission, revival of
MGNREGA scheme, setting up of smart cities and strong govt. initiatives on infrastructure
development are likely to enhance demand both in rural and urban markets. Governments
ambitious plan ``Housing for All by 2022 will be major growth driver for the company.
Implementation of GST will boost companys market share going forward. With the
commencement of Assam Plant the company will enjoy a 10 year tax holiday at new plant
and will also benefit from VAT exemption for sales in Assam. Recent MoU with Chugoku
Marine Paints of Japan will help to expand companys footprint in industrial paint segment.
Thus, considering strong revival in Urban and rural demand, GST implementation and
commencement of Assam Plant, We remain positive on the stock and recommend "BUY"
with the target Price of Rs 267.
Company Update Smart bounce back by Maggie shows strong brand value:
CMP 6518
Target Price 7920 Nestle came out with bang after Maggie fiasco which shook it two years
ago. Due to Maggie ban, contribution in Revenue from Prepared dishes and
Previous Target Price 7714
cooking aids went down from 29% in CY14 to 16% in CY15, a decline of
Upside 22% 56% YoY. Nestle relaunched Maggie on 9 nov., 2015 and within 53 days of
Change from Previous 3% relaunch , it regained market share of 33% which shows strong brand
power. Presently, Maggies market share has reached to 60% versus peak
market share of 75% which is commendable. It shows new managements
Market Data
aggression and focus towards NESTLEs future growth. Going forward we
BSE Code 500790 expect brand Maggie to consolidate further with more market share gain.
NSE Symbol NESTLEIND
52wk Range H/L 7930/5490 New product launches, the key of future growth:
Mkt Capital (Rs Cr) 62,844 After Maggie fiasco, companys new management has become more
Av. Volume(,000) 31 aggressive in launching new products. The company has launched more
Nifty 9,203 than 25 products in last few quarters. NESTLE has strong backing of its
parent with more than 2000 products globally .Going forward, it has plans to
Stock Performance launch more new products from its parents global product portfolio.
1M 3M 12M According to management, new products are doing well.
Absolute 6.9 11.8 12.0 Historically NESTLE has strong pricing power:
Rel.to Nifty 3.5 0.4 -10.4
As in most the FMCG categories input prices have bottomed out and have
started moving up. Hence going forward we expect growth for FMCG will be
Share Holding Pattern-%
pricing led. NESTLE has strong premium product portfolio and strong
3QFY17 2QFY17 1QFY17
pricing power. Hence going forward we expect strong growth for NESLE.
Promoters 62.8 62.8 62.8
Public 37.2 37.2 37.2
Others - - - Urban demand recovery led growth going forward:
Total 100 100 100
For last four years urban demand is struggling due to higher inflation and
lower economic activities which is one of the causes of companys dismal
Company Vs NIFTY performance. As NESTLEs most of the sales comes from urban areas,
130 NESTLEIND NIFTY approx. 75%, hence any recovery in urban demand will be huge positive for
125 the company. We expect better demand scenario for urban market going
120 ahead led by declining inflation and interest rate scenario.
115
110
105
Rs,Cr
100
95 Financials 4QCY16 3QCY16 (QoQ)-% 4QCY15 (YoY)-%
90 Sales 2286 2363 -3% 1959 17%
85
80 EBITDA 403 447 -10% 353 14%
Net Profit 164 269 -39% 183 -10%
EBITDA% 18% 19% (129 Bps) 18% (37 Bps)
Rajeev Anand PAT% 7% 11% (421 Bps) 9% (216 Bps)
rajeev.anand@narnolia.com
Narnolia Securities Ltd 5
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report
Segmental Revenue (%):
100%
16% 16% 15% 14% 14% 14% 12% 13%
80% 16%
23% 25% 27% 28% 28% 29% 29%
60% 16%
18% 16% 14% 14% 13% 14% 13%
40%
55%
20% 43% 43% 44% 44% 45% 43% 45%
0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
25% 23%
22% 22%
21%
19% 19% 19%
20% 18% 18%
15%
15% 13%
12% 12% 12%
11%
10%
9%
10% 7% 7%
5%
0% -3%
-5%
KEY RISKS:
Any sharp increase in milk and other key input prices will be margin dilutive for the company. Delay in
urban demand recovery will be another risk to our recommendation.
Our buy recommendation on NESTLE is based on Maggies market share gain, new product launches
and expectation of urban demand recovery going forward. The companys ROE improved to 31% in
CY16 from 20% year ago. We expect ROE to improve further going ahead. Presently we have positive
view on this stock and recommend to `BUY this stock with target price of Rs 7920.
Result Update Stake sale in DHFL Pramerica Life Insurance (DPLI) completed.
CMP 393 Stake sale in DHFL Pramerica Life Insurance (DPLI) has been completed at
Target Price 497 the higher valuation range of Rs 2000 Cr. Earlier DHFL entered into an
agreement with its promoter to sell its 100% of share held in DHFL Pramerica
Previous Target Price 385
Life Insurance (DPLI) (equivalent to 50% of the paid-up capital of DPLI) to its
Upside 26% wholly owned subsidiary DHFL Investment Ltd (DIL). Investment of DHFL in
Change from Previous 29% DPLI was mere Rs 31 Cr. To fund this transaction, DIL will issue compulsorily
convertible debentures (CCDs) to the promoters entity (Wadhawan Global
Capital). Due to this deal we factor 25% increase in networth. With strong
Market Data
capitalization and focus on affordable segment we expect 20% growth in
BSE Code 511072 AUM going forward.
NSE Symbol
DHFL
52wk Range H/L 395/182
3Q FY17 Result Highlight
Mkt Capital (Rs Cr) 10159
Av. Volume (,000) 281 DHFL posted 3Q FY17 PAT at Rs 244 Cr up 31% YoY owing to better NIMs
Nifty 8898 which improved by 11 bps YoY and was stable QoQ. NII growth was strong
at 21% YoY. Operating expenses were under control and grew by just 9%
YoY. C/I ratio improved to 26.5% against 29.5% a year back. AUM grew by
Stock Performance
19% YoY despite the challenging times during demonetization. Disbursement
1Month 1Year YTD
was muted to 10% growth YoY, however considering demonetization impact
Absolute 14.5 109.6 57.3 we had anticipated it even lower. Assets quality was stable with GNPA at 95
Rel.to Nifty 12.8 87.2 44.3 bps sequentially.
Concall Highlights
Profitability Metrix 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17
Yield% (Cal.) 11.67 11.25 11.18 11.48 11.46 11.30 10.92 11.53 12.06
Cost of Fund% (Cal.) 10.05 9.90 9.69 9.92 9.75 9.77 9.45 9.18 9.29
Spread% (Cal) 2.82 2.57 2.78 2.88 3.05 2.91 2.87 2.35 2.77
NIM% 2.77 2.89 2.96 2.86 2.87 2.96 2.91 3.05 3.07
C/I Ratio 32.18 29.73 29.97 29.03 29.46 31.76 28.11 26.09 26.48
9
DHFL
(Rs in Cr)
Assets Quality 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17
GNPA% 0.77 0.84 0.8 0.81 0.84 0.93 0.98 0.96 0.95
NNPA% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PCR% 108.2 100.2 106.9 111 110.79 101.74 99.3 99.6 101.5
AUM MIX %
Disbursement Growth% YoY
Housing LAP/LRF Project Others
120 35%
32%
30% 31% 31%
100 6 8 9 10 12 13
17 16 16 16 25% 24%
26%
80 16 16 22%
20%
60 18%
15%
14%
76 74 12%
40 72 72 70 69 10% 10%
20 5%
0%
0
2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17
-
3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17
Loan Mix %
BALANCE SHEET Housing Loan 83 78 75 72
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 LAP 11 16 18 16
Share Capital 128 128 146 292 Project 6 6 6 10
Reserves 3,109 3,447 4,490 4,725 Others - - 1 2
Net Worth 3,237 3,575 4,636 5,017 Total AUM (Rs in Cr) 36,117 44,822 56,884 69,524
Long term Debt 26,565 32,295 36,889 45,119 Borrowing Mix %
Short term Debt 876 1,595 3,637 6,437 NCD 11 20 28 33
Total Borrowing 27,441 33,890 40,526 51,556 Bank 71 68 58 53
Long Term Provision 264 331 430 583 Others 18 12 14 14
Other Liability 4,862 6,063 9,046 10,697 Resource Mobilization (Rs in Cr)
32,058 39,487 48,921 61,104
Total Liability 35,803 43,859 54,638 67,853
Fixed Assets 438 988 985 781 About the Company
Non-current investments 191 307 611 720 DHFL was founded in 1984 and is promoted by Wadhawan
Current investments 85 269 396 173 Group. Focused on low and medium income group it operates
Loans/Advances 34,222 41,016 51,511 62,295 mainly in tier 1 and tier 2 cities with its presence in 363 cities. It
Cash & Bank Balances 513 983 676 3,408 has total AUM of Rs 783 Billion .
Other Assets 356 297 460 476 Chairman & MD Kapil Wadhawan
Total Assets 35,803 43,859 54,638 67,853 CEO Harsil Mehta
11
Narnolia Securities Ltd
The company has to increase direct reach but it will not cost much.
Due to demonetization, whole sale trade is impacted and there is no sign of it coming back in near term.
Management is looking for acquisition but Target Company is still not in the view.
27% rise in modern trade volume in this quarter. Modern trade contributed 5.2% of the total sales in Q3FY17.
Contribution from rural remained 42.5% in this quarter and in pre demonetization it was 43.6%.
New product launch will happen in 1QFY18.
Announced temporary incentive to channel partners.
Canteen trade reduced by13.5% in this quarter.
The company has reserve of LLP till March 2018. It can go beyond this if volume will remain like that.
LLP prices remained Rs46/kg for this quarter and presently, it is trading at Rs 54/kg.
Volume growth in light hair oil 2.1%
International business grew by 72% YoY in this quarter and contributed more than 5% in this quarter.
Plans for entering in larger market Russia, Indonesia and Egypt is under way.
BAJAJ CORP is engaged in the business activity of trading and manufacturing of cosmetics, toiletries and other personal care
products. It is a fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) company. The Company's products include Bajaj Kailash Parbat Thanda Tel,
Bajaj Almond Drops Hair Oil, Bajaj Brahmi Amla Hair Oil, Bajaj Jasmine Hair Oil, Bajaj Nomark Oily Skin Face Wash, Bajaj Nomarks
Herbal Scrub Soap, Bajaj Nomark Oily Skin Cream, Bajaj Nomarks Neem Soap, Bajaj Nomarks Oil Control Soap and others. The
Company has approximately nine Factory, of which four units are situated in Himachal Pradesh , three units are situated in
Uttrakhand for manufacturing of various variants of hair oils and Nomarks and other unit is situated in Guwahati and one unit
Bangladesh.The company reaches consumers through 3.6mn retail outlets serviced by 7707 distributors and 11500 wholesalers.
4%
2%
2%
2% 1%
0%
2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17
-2%
-4% -4%
-4%
-6%
150
209
208
204
197
196
100
187
54 52 58 58
47 49
50
0
2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17
70
59.51 58.82
54.7
50 46.41 43.91 46.37
30
10
Result Update
New launches and bottoming out of exports to drive growth
CMP 472
Target Price NA TVS Motors reported strong volume growth of 9%YoY in FY17. 23%YoY
Previous Target Price growth in the Moped segment during the year led to 11%YoY in two wheelers
segment. Three wheelers segment de-grew by 38%YoY in FY17. Exports
Upside
witnessed a tough time during FY17 because of currency availability issue in
Change from Previous the various African countries where the company has good export exposure.
In March 2017 the company posted 24%YoY growth in the exports which
Market Data suggest that the weakness in the export has bottomed out. The
BSE Code 532343 management is also very auspicious based on the robust pipeline of
launches across all categories in FY18. Scooters and premium segment
NSE Symbol TVSMOTOR motorcycles will drive the higher realization and margins for the company.
52wk Range H/L 474/278 The most awaited concept bike in alliance with BMW will also be launched in
Mkt Capital (Rs Cr) 2017. TVS-BMW alliance will further strengthen company's presence in
22,258
premium bike segment which in turn boost company's margin by the change
Av. Volume 99639 in product mix and give an opportunity to expand it's footprint in foreign
Nifty 9,198 markets.
Sep-16
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
May-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Apr-16
Apr-17
Mar-17
Concall Highlights
Management expects double digit growth in FY18.
Capex plan Rs.400 crore in FY17.
BMW project going as per plan and the product will be launched in 2017.
Urban and rural mix are 55% and 45% respectively. Urban sales is higher due to scooterization.
Newly launched Victor monthly run-rate is 20000 units.
Moped segment growth is coming from new model launches and 40% contribution of total sales is from North region.
Management is also looking into non permit driven markets for 3 wheelers.
Exports have been sluggish due to restricted availability of dollars and currency devaluation in some countries.
Market share target 18% in 2 wheelers and 27-28% for 3 wheelers in exports.
25 crore of investment in Indonesian subsidiary in 4QFY17 looking at the growth on 9 month basis.
The Indonesian subsidiary has started showing improvements in topline with 55% growth in 1HFY17 vs HFY16.
Margin guidance of 10 percent by FY18.
Inventory days-28 in 3QFY17 and it will be 30-32 days in 4QFY17.
No big pressure on commodity prices of rising steel price.
The company will review prices in 4QFY17 depending on the commodity price increases.
Tax benefit in Himachal plant will lapse in FY17. It contributes around 10% of total production.
Tax rate would be in the range of 24-25% in FY17.
Plant Detail
Key Risks
Result Update
New launches and bottoming out of exports to drive growth
CMP 472
Target Price NA TVS Motors reported strong volume growth of 9%YoY in FY17. 23%YoY
Previous Target Price growth in the Moped segment during the year led to 11%YoY in two wheelers
segment. Three wheelers segment de-grew by 38%YoY in FY17. Exports
Upside
witnessed a tough time during FY17 because of currency availability issue in
Change from Previous the various African countries where the company has good export exposure.
In March 2017 the company posted 24%YoY growth in the exports which
Market Data suggest that the weakness in the export has bottomed out. The
BSE Code 532343 management is also very auspicious based on the robust pipeline of
launches across all categories in FY18. Scooters and premium segment
NSE Symbol TVSMOTOR motorcycles will drive the higher realization and margins for the company.
52wk Range H/L 474/278 The most awaited concept bike in alliance with BMW will also be launched in
Mkt Capital (Rs Cr) 22,258 2017. TVS-BMW alliance will further strengthen company's presence in
premium bike segment which in turn boost company's margin by the change
Av. Volume 99639 in product mix and give an opportunity to expand it's footprint in foreign
Nifty 9,198 markets.
Sep-16
Feb-17
Jan-17
Dec-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
May-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Apr-16
Apr-17
Mar-17
Concall Highlights
Management expects double digit growth in FY18.
Capex plan Rs.400 crore in FY17.
BMW project going as per plan and the product will be launched in 2017.
Urban and rural mix are 55% and 45% respectively. Urban sales is higher due to scooterization.
Newly launched Victor monthly run-rate is 20000 units.
Moped segment growth is coming from new model launches and 40% contribution of total sales is from North region.
Management is also looking into non permit driven markets for 3 wheelers.
Exports have been sluggish due to restricted availability of dollars and currency devaluation in some countries.
Market share target 18% in 2 wheelers and 27-28% for 3 wheelers in exports.
25 crore of investment in Indonesian subsidiary in 4QFY17 looking at the growth on 9 month basis.
The Indonesian subsidiary has started showing improvements in topline with 55% growth in 1HFY17 vs HFY16.
Margin guidance of 10 percent by FY18.
Inventory days-28 in 3QFY17 and it will be 30-32 days in 4QFY17.
No big pressure on commodity prices of rising steel price.
The company will review prices in 4QFY17 depending on the commodity price increases.
Tax benefit in Himachal plant will lapse in FY17. It contributes around 10% of total production.
Tax rate would be in the range of 24-25% in FY17.
Plant Detail
Key Risks
Company Update Recently Reliance Jio has withdrawn Jio summer surprise offer on TRAI's
CMP 1434 advice. Now to avail Jio services users have to opt for subscription plans.
We expect that this move will further boost the revenues from Jio.
Target Price 1680
According to management 72mn customers have already opted for Jio
Previous Target Price 1408 prime membership till 31 March 2017. As per the Jios management
Upside 17% estimates, EBITDA margin for Jio in FY18 will be more than 50%. Recently
Change from Previous 19% Jio has announced booster packages starting from Rs 11 going up to Rs
301 to provide additional data to its users. . On the Petro-chemicals front,
Reliance has commissioned the first phase of new Paraxylene (PX) project
Market Data at Jamnagar in Q3FY17 and with the commissioning of this plant, PX
BSE Code 500325 capacity will be more than double from 2.0 to 4.2 MTPA. Further
NSE Symbol RELIANCE management has guided for re-opening of its 1400 retail outlets, which will
52wk Range H/L boost the revenue of petrochemicals segment.
1448/925
Mkt Capital (Rs Cr) 465956 Outlook
Av. Volume(,000) 677 Jio is rapidly capturing market share by providing attractive offers to its
Nifty 9258 prime members and has also promised to offer 20% more data than any
other rivals. Now Jio is targeting to boost its revenue by retaining its
customers. Recently Reliance has rallied smartly and has crossed our target
Stock Performance price of Rs. 1408. We are still optimistic in this stock and hence we
1M 3M 12M recommend HOLD rating for our long-term investors with the revised
Absolute 8.4 36.9 39.3 target price of Rs. 1680
Rel.to Nifty 4.9 16.8 30.7 Corporate Highlights For The Quarter
Gross Refining Margin (GRM) of USD 10.8/bbl for the quarter
Share Holding Pattern-% In December 2016, RIL commissioned the first phase of new Paraxylene
3QFY17 2QFY17 1QFY17 project at Jamnagar
Promoters 46.5 46.7 46.7 Outstanding debt as on 31st December 2016 was Rs.194,381 cr
Public 53.5 53.3 53.3 compared to Rs. 180388 cr as on 31st March 2016.
Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 The capital expenditure for 3Q FY 17 was Rs. 37,791 crore.
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 Interest cost was at Rs. 1,209 crore in 3QFY17 as against Rs. 945 crore
in corresponding period of FY16, increase is primarily on account of higher
Company Vs NIFTY average exchange rate for the quarter.
140 RELIANCE NIFTY Reliance has operated 1,151 petroleum retail outlets in the country in
130
3QFY17.
120 Exports from India operations were higher by 4.0% at Rs. 38,038 crore
110 Rs,Cr
Financials 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
100
90
Sales 358501 397062 434460 375435 276544
EBITDA 34508 33045 34799 37364 44257
80
Net Profit 19724 20879 22493 23566 27630
Jul-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
Dec-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
May-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Apr-16
Apr-17
Mar-16
Mar-17
EPS 60 65 70 73 85
Aditya Gupta P/E 12.4 12.0 13.4 11.3 12.3
aditya.gupta@narnolia.com
Narnolia Securities Ltd 22
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report
Petrochemical business
3Q FY17 revenue from the Petrochemicals segment increased by 17.8% YoY to Rs. 22,854 crore, primarily due to increase in
prices across polymers and polyester chain.Petrochemicals segment EBIT increased sharply by 25.5% to Rs. 3,301 crore,
supported by favorable product deltas and marginal volume growth.
E&P Business
3Q FY17 revenues for the Oil & Gas segment decreased by 31.0% YoY to Rs. 1,215 crore. The decline in revenue was led by
lower upstream production and lower domestic gas price realization. The unfavorable upstream price environment impacted
segment EBIT which was at Rs. (295) crore, as against Rs. 258 crore in the corresponding period of the previous year. Domestic
production (RIL share) was at 23.1 Bcfe, down 24% YoY. For the accounting quarter, upstream production (RIL Share) in US
Shale business was 41.4 Bcfe, down 19% YoY basis.
Organised Retail:
Revenues for 3Q FY17 grew by 47.2% Y-o-Y to Rs. 8,688 crore from Rs. 5,901 crore. The increase in turnover was led by growth
across all consumption baskets. The business delivered strong PBDIT of Rs. 333 crore in 3Q FY17 as against Rs.237 crore in the
corresponding period of the previous year. During the quarter, Reliance Retail added 111 stores across various store concepts.
Trends crossed a milestone of 300 stores during the quarter. At the end of the quarter, Reliance Retail operated 3,553 stores
across 686 cities with an area of over 13.25 million square feet.
During 3Q FY17, revenue from the Refining and Marketing segment increased by 7.5% YoY to Rs. 61,693 crore ($ 9.1 billion).
Segment EBIT was at Rs. 6,194 crore, down 4.3% YoY on account of lower volumes and decline in GRMs. GRM for 3Q FY17
stood at $ 10.8/bbl as against $ 11.5/bbl in 3Q FY16. Reliance GRM outperformed Singapore complex margins by $ 4.1/bbl.
Reliance Jamnagar refineries processed 17.8 MMT in 3Q FY17, marginally lower on QoQ. As at the end of the quarter, Reliance
operated 1,151 petroleum retail outlets in the country.
Digital service
During the quarter, Jio announced the launch of the Jio Happy New Year Offer (JNO) effective from 4th December 2016. Under
the JNO, all the Jio subscribers are entitled to certain special benefits, which comprise of Jios Data, Voice, Video and the full
bouquet of Jio applications and content, absolutely free, up to 31st March 2017.Till 31st Dec 2016 there were 72.4 million
subscribers on the network.Jio is the only operator in India to deploy pan-India LTE on a sub-GHz band, in addition to pan-India
1800MHz and 2300MHz spectrum band.
2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17
Petrochemicals Revenue 27,128 27,121 26,541 25,398 26,651 23,001 21,754 20,858 21,239 19,398 20,915 20,718 22,422 22,854
Petrochemicals EBIT 2,381 2,115 2,150 1,863 2,361 2,064 2,003 2,338 2,531 2,639 2,713 2,806 3,417 3,301
Petrochemicals EBIT Margin 9% 8% 8% 7% 9% 9% 9% 11% 12% 14% 13% 14% 15% 14%
Exploration & Production
2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17
Oil and Gas Revenue 2,682 2,926 2,798 3,178 3,002 2,841 2,513 2,057 2,067 1,765 1,638 1,340 1,327 1,215
Oil and Gas EBIT 956 607 762 1,042 818 832 489 32 242 90 14 (312) (491) (295)
Oil and Gas EBIT Margin 36% 21% 27% 33% 27% 29% 19% 2% 12% 5% 1% -23% -37% -24%
Retail
2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17
Organized Retail Revenue 3,470 3,941 3,653 3,999 4,167 4,686 4,788 4,698 5,091 6,042 5,781 6,666 8,079 8,688
Organized Retail EBIT 70 38 24 81 99 133 104 111 117 147 131 148 162 231
Organized Retail EBIT Margin 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3%
Investment Rationale
Massive Capex programme coming onstream: RIL has spent ~70% of the planned USD1850Cr capex (this number was
USD1650Cr earlier) on its four key projects (petcoke gasification, polyester expansion, off-gas cracker and ethane sourcing).
We believe that the three expansion projects: petcoke gasifier, refinery off-gas cracker, and ethane intake facilities will be
fully operational by FY17E.The companys massive capex programme will push future earnings.
Telecom launch in FY18: The commercial launch will give us better visibility on execution, business outlook, and earnings.
RIL is the largest private player in the refining, petrochemical and E&P sectors in India.The petrochemicals segment includes
production and marketing operations of petrochemical products which include, polyethylene, polypropylene, polyvinyl chloride, poly
butadiene rubber, polyester yarn, polyester fibre, purified terephthalic acid, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, olefins, aromatics, linear
alkyl benzene, butadiene, acrylonitrile, caustic soda and polyethylene terephthalate. The refining segment includes production and
marketing operations of the petroleum products. The oil and gas segment includes exploration, development and production of
crude oil and natural gas. RIL has made significant investments in US shale gas. In terms of EBIT, Refining contribute 60% and
Petrochemicals 30%. RIL is also expanding its presence in the areas of consumer retailing and telecom.
Net sales de grew by the 6.5% YoY to Rs. 1965 Cr in Q3FY17 as compared to Rs. 2101 Cr in Q3FY16
EBITDA margin has improved by 135 bsp to Rs. 182 Cr as against Rs 167 Cr on account of 10% plus margin in T&D and
improved performance of railway and SAE business.
KEC has reported 102% YoY growth in PAT with 200 bps improvement on back of higher EBITDA
During the quarter KEC has secured Rs.2706 Cr of new orders in Q3FY17 (up by 20% YoY) and Rs. 8634 Cr in 9 months of
FY17, which is up by 26% YoY
Order book as on 31st December stands at Rs.11175 Cr, ie. 1.3x of TTM revenue.
Demonetization, delay in conversation of L1 orders into firm order and land acquisition issue at Jammu and Kashmir project led
to de growth in revenue
Management has guided 5% and 10-15% revenue growth in FY17 and FY18 respectively.
EBITDA margin in FY17 will be 9% and it will improve further in FY18
EBITDA margin of SAE tower was 8-9% in Q3FY17
Faced some serious issue in logistic in November and December month due to demonization but now situation is under control.
Losses in Cable segment has come down significantly on YoY
Revenue loss of 50-60 Cr due to demonization
Maintain revenue guidance in railway segment of Rs. 450-500 Cr and Rs.1000 cr in FY18
Interest cost as % of sales will be 2.7% in FY18
Significant improvement in solar business from next year as the KEC is in L1 position of large project. EBITDA margin is slightly
below than normal margin but cash generating on PBT level
Expect to bring down AR collection days to 180 from 218 days based on the release of retention money from Saudi projects
Land acquisition issue at Jammu and Kashmir project has been resolved
Expect more orders from SEBs compare to PGCIL
Order Book 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 YoY% QoQ%
Transmission 7,356 6,921 7,131 7,903 7,207 7,028 7,087 7,334 7,442 8,054 15% 8%
SAE 931 876 951 948 1,086 937 1,134 1,769 1,510 1,342 43% -11%
Cables 279 263 570 632 592 469 472 104 216 224 -52% 4%
Railways 279 263 475 738 691 562 567 936 1,186 1,342 139% 13%
Water 466 438 380 316 - 281 189 208 216 112 -60% -48%
Solar 9 9 - - 296 75 38 52 183 101 34% -45%
Total 9,320 8,770 9,508 10,537 9,872 9,351 9,487 10,403 10,753 11,175 20% 4%
Order Intake
Transmission 583 1,478 1,909 2,375 1,024 1,595 1,370 1,469 1,738 1,651 4% -5%
SAE 231 485 421 123 181 247 206 678 465 298 20% -36%
Cables 253 412 393 309 181 270 206 198 279 244 -10% -13%
Railways - 48 84 278 90 90 56 424 528 460 412% -13%
Water - - - - - - - - - -
Solar 11 5 3 - 30 45 38 57 93 54 20% -42%
Total 1,078 2,428 2,811 3,085 1,506 2,246 1,877 2,825 3,103 2,706 20% -13%
28
Narnolia Securities Ltd
KEC International Limited is an India-based company, engaged in infrastructure engineering, procurement and construction (EPC).
The Company is also a manufacturer of power cables and telecom cables in India. The Company operates in four business
verticals, which include power transmission and distribution, cables, railways and water. The Company is also a provider of turnkey
solution in the railway infrastructure EPC space. The Company has powered infrastructure development across 50 countries in
developed, developing and emerging economies of South Asia, the Middle East, Africa, Central Asia, the United States and South
East Asia. The Company has eight manufacturing facilities for lattice towers, monopoles, hardware and cables.
Power Transmission
Cabels Railways Water
& Distribution
Electrification
Supply EPC
Manufacturing Facilities
Tower Manufacturing
India, Brazil and Vadodara (Gujarat)
Mexico Mysore (Karnataka)
(SAE Annual Silvassa (Union
production capacity Territory)
100000 MTs)
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