LECTURE 25 NOTES

Earthquake Prediction
o Item added for these lecture notes: There are some issues with the
seismic gap approach. One is that we know about long recurrence rates
for really large events. Tohoku, Japan, was considered a gap but it was
expected to be a M ~ 7.5 8 event, not 9+. Recurrence rates of >~1000
years would not be well known. Other areas (e.g., Lisbon, Portugal, 1755)
have big earthquakes with no known recurrence history. Other issues
exist, but at least in many places, it does seem to at least identify places
where earthquakes exist.
o Stress triggering (also not directly covered in class)
After each major earthquake adjacent sections of a fault are put
under stress, indicating those regions may rupture next.
This has worked well on the North Anatolian fault in Turkey but
has not been well demonstrated elsewhere. Also, the time of the
event is not known (has varied in Turkey from 1 to 20 years).
o Parkfield, California was the center of the US earthquake prediction effort.
Between 1857 and 1966, a magnitude 6 earthquake has occurred there
every 21-22 years. After 1966, the expectation was the one would occur
around 1985.
The area was instrumented with all sorts of instruments (strain
gauges, seismometers, laser ranging, borehole sensors, etc.)
No earthquake occurred in the 1980s or 1990. Finally, one
occurred in 2004. It looks like one event in the cycle was skipped.
o Paleoseismology
Pre-historic earthquakes can be identified by looking for geologic
signatures by trenching (digging a trench across a fault, or in a fault
zone)
Look for traces of faulting or liquefaction
date using 14C dating, cross-cutting relations
But in many areas, the recurrence isnt systematic. Sometimes
there are clusters of earthquakes which themselves may have
recurrences.
Short-term prediction (days or less). Nothing seems to work consistently, but
o Based on dilatancy the micro-fracturing of rock prior to failure
(formation of small cracks in stressed rocks)
o Identification of conclusive precursors has proven to be a challenge;
here are some speculations.
Foreshocks small earthquakes prior to a large event
but you dont know its a foreshock until a bigger event
occurs
Seismic velocity decreases
more cracks and fluid filled cracks; slow down S-waves the
most
Uplift or tilt of ground
 ground undergoes stress can compress or extend. Cracks
requires more space so region expands and tilts
Radon in well water
cracks allow more radon to move up and escape
Electrical Resistivity
water filled cracks allow more conduction
Well water levels decrease
more cracks for water to go into
o Have There Been Successful Short-term Predictions? Very maybe.
Haicheng, China, 1974, is the usual one cited
City was evacuated primarily on basis of microseismicity
Butcasualties may have been higher than reported
Evacuation was based on (mostly the first three)
o seismic quiescence followed by
o increased micro-seismicity
o tilt direction changes
o electrical conductivity changes
o water level in wells
o daily change in tilt
o animal behavior
o radon in wells and springs
o changes in elevation
o increased seismicity
o Followed by failure at Tangshan in 1976 with 243,000 killed
Can Animals Predict Earthquakes?
o Maybe but no demonstrable connection
Despite what is in some popular culture there is a lack of direct
cause effect relationship
Only one well documented case from Tianjin, China, Zoo
Did animal act strange or do we remember it because of
earthquake
o At short distances, some animals may sense high-frequency P-wave that
humans do not and may act oddly seconds to minutes before an
earthquake. So they may be a post-facto warning system. Not reliable.
Erroneous predictions a serious problem
o New Madrid prediction (50% odds M>6 by Iben Browning* for December 2
and 3, 1990
self-taught climatologist (PhD in Zoology)
claimed to have predicted Loma Prieta, St. Helens
based on tidal attraction of sun and moon
theory already proposed and discredited by seismologists
o Resulted in media frenzy
o Impacts (~$200 million?)
schools closed
emergency services on alert
food and water stockpiled
 unnecessary worry and panic
increased earthquake insurance sales
o Public less sensitive to scientists
Cry wolf!
Prediction summary
o Must be made responsibly (didnt discuss this, but should be obvious)
Erroneous (or spurious) predictions may be worse than the event
itself
o Who is responsible?
Erroneous predictions may be worse than the event itself
LAquila Italy case sue the scientists?
o Long-term forecasts based on recurrence rates are reasonably accurate
But in time-scales of decades
o Short-term predictions are not yet reliable
Many precursors related to dilatancy have been identified, but
inconsistent at best see Italy case
Most countries have abandoned serious prediction research (US,
Japan, China, USSR, Greece have been involved)
o Present-day warnings are post facto and can mitigate some losses
(Japan is good at this!)
Taiwan has a system now as well. Some funding has been
made available for shut-down systems.
Rapid transmission of information, automated shut offs
But areas near the epicenter cannot be helped
o Preparations are crucial

Volcanoes
Types of Volcanoes
o Strato-volcano
Steep-sides, ash
Island arcs, continental margin arcs (subduction zones), e.g., Mt.
Fuji
o Shield volcano
Gentle slopes, lava
Mid-oceanic plate, some mid-ocean ridges (hot spots, fast-
spreading ridges), e.g., Hawaii.
o Calderas, e.g., Crater Lake (erupted ~4850 B.C.)
Eruptions from magma chamber, caldera collapse, steam
explosions
top 1500 m of mountain was blasted off or collapsed.
o Cinder cones, basically piles of ash
o Lava domes domes formed of very viscous lava extruding out
o Explosion craters vents due to small eruptions
Types of eruptions
o some are gentle, with lots of lava, others blow up violently
o Classification of eruptions
 explosivity (you do not need to know the types)
gentle eruptions, fissures and flows (Icelandic type)
flows, shield volcanoes (Hawaiian type)
some gas, lots of small explosions (Strombolian type)
to huge eruptions (Plinian type)
dome collapses (Pelean type)
o What controls explosivity?
Viscosity recall, resistance of materials to flow
Fluids => low viscosity
Solids, or gooey magma => high viscosity
Viscosity is controlled by silica content (among other things)
High silica => high viscosity
Low silica => low viscosity
Higher silica => more complex silicate structures (e.g., framework)
Complex structures => high viscosity => more gasses are trapped
most common gasses are water vapor (steam)
More gas => more explosive when it reaches the surface
o Magmas and Volcanoes
Basaltic Magma
Low silica (< 53%)
Gentle
Low-viscosity magma
Shield volcanoes
Andesitic Magma
Mid-to high silica (53-68%, more or less)
Explosive
Viscous magma
Stratovolcanoes, calderas
Rhyolitic Magma
Very high silica (> 68%)
Very explosive
Very viscous magma
Calderas, domes
 1995 W. C., Brown

o Quantification: Volcano Explosivity Index (VEI)

o This a dominantly an intensity scale with some quasi-magnitude
components

o Global distribution of volcanoes 1993 David Chester

Subduction zones
Circum-Pacific Ring of Fire
Recall, magmas originate from dewatering of the subducting
plate and melting of the overlying asthenosphere
Magmas originate at depths of ~ 100 km and erupt in
stratovolcanoes (Andesitic magmas)
Oceanic hot spots (e.g., Hawaii) and mid-ocean ridges
Shield volcanoes
melting at depths of 10s of km
 for hot spots, thermal (heat) plume may originate from the
deep mantle, but melting occurs only at shallow depths
Continental hot spots (e.g., Yellowstone)
Really big calderas
magma forms at depths of 10 km
o Volcanism summary (know the connections)
Stratovolcanoes
silica rich magma
high viscosity magma
light colored rocks
steep sided volcano
high explosivity
lots of ash/tephra
subduction zones
Shield volcanoes
silica poor magma
low viscosity magma
dark colored rocks
gentle sided volcano
low explosivity
lots of lava
oceanic hot spots, ridges

Volcanic Hazards
Lava Flows
o Hazard most associate with volcanism
o Primary hazard from basaltic (low-viscosity) magmas
o oceanic hot spot volcanism, mid-ocean ridges
Aa lava: cools quickly but moves fast
Pahoehoe lava: thin flows, cools slowly and moves not too fast
o Bury cities and roads
Flows can sometimes be diverted
Flows can be water cooled in some cases
In Iceland, effort was made to maintain access to harbor in
by water cooling the lava

April 13, 2017