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Energy Guide - 2017 Integrated Resource Plan & Repowering Studies
Energy Guide - 2017 Integrated Resource Plan & Repowering Studies
2 | ENERGY GUIDE: Integrated Resource Plan & Repowering Studies 3 | ENERGY GUIDE: Integrated Resource Plan & Repowering Studies
Key Findings Key Findings
An independent third party, called the NYISO, determines which The forecasted need for power plants in 2030 on Long Island has
generation units run to provide the lowest cost to consumers declined by ~1,700 megawatts (MW) since 2013, the equivalent of
3-5 large baseload central station power plants
2016 2016
Maximum Capability by Generation Type Actual Energy Production by Resource
5,864 MW 20,964 MW-hours
Long Islands Peak Load Forecast has Declined Since 2010
LONG LONG
ISLAND ISLAND
4 | ENERGY GUIDE: Integrated Resource Plan & Repowering Studies 5 | ENERGY GUIDE: Integrated Resource Plan & Repowering Studies
Key Findings Key Findings
Load is expected to be reduced by 950MW through 2030 as a A significant portion of the States offshore wind goal may
result of energy efficiency, rooftop solar, and other behind the connect to Long Islands electric grid, potentially in excess of the
meter initiatives amount needed to meet LIPAs own CES needs
NYSERDA will issue an Off-Shore Wind Master Plan for the State
by the end of 2017
LIPAs New Renewable Energy Generation to Meet 50x30 Clean Energy Standard Long Islands OSW Development Areas
4000
Offshore Wind Projections
3500
3000
2500
State-identified CES target
GWh
NOT TO SCALE
2000
1500
Solar
1000
500
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Year Wind Sites*
Landfall Location
Note: The proportion of OSW and solar reflected in the graphic represents a planning Converter/Substation
assumption. Actual project selection will be based on competitive solicitations
* Deepwater Wind Lease Area; Bureau of Ocean and Energy
Statoil recently won Management (BOEM) Wind Energy Areas; and Area of
development rights to 79,350 Potential Development (AOPD)
acres in the BOEM lease area.
6 | ENERGY GUIDE: Integrated Resource Plan & Repowering Studies 7 | ENERGY GUIDE: Integrated Resource Plan & Repowering Studies
Key Findings Key Findings
Dra$
Transmission:
LIPAs annual purchases of approximately 10,500Cables to Regional
GWh of energy across fivePower Markets
transmission cables to the New York, New
LIPA Has Surplus Generation Through 2035 England, and PJM power markets provides diverse and robust supply, redundancy, lower cost, and represents a tiny fraction of
generation in those markets.
The current peak load forecase shows a
capacity need date of 2035 or later. ISO-NE Total Energy Produc8on: 107,916 GWh
NYISO Total Energy Produc8on: 142,346 GWh
6400 LIPA Purchases from ISO-NE: 1,908 GWh (2%)
LIPA Purchases from NYISO: 4,334 GWh (3%) ISO-NE
Long Island Peak Load (MW)
6200
NYISO Cross Sound Cable
6000 (330 MW)
NNC Cable
Y-49/50 (200 MW)
(935 MW, net)
5800
5600
5400
5200
5000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
Year
Available Capacity Cumulative Capacity Contract Expired, Remains In-Service Neptune Cable
(660 MW)
Additional Renewables to meet 50x30 Capacity Requirement
2015 PJM Total Energy Produc8on: 786,698 GWh
PJM
2015 LIPA Purchases from PJM: 4,265 GWh (1%)
LONG
ISLAND 15
8 | ENERGY GUIDE: Integrated Resource Plan & Repowering Studies 9 | ENERGY GUIDE: Integrated Resource Plan & Repowering Studies
Key Findings Key Findings
Additional Renewables Decrease the Run Time of Steam Plants Run time of PSA Steam Plants Forecast to Decline
60%
4500 54% 53%
4000 48%
50%
AMOUNT OF ELECTRICITY STEAM POWER 44%
3500 PLANTS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ACTUAL CUSTOMER ENERGY USE
Capacity Factor
(Plus Must Run / Highly Efficient Generation) NET OF RENEWABLES
(Daily Electricity Consumption based on 40%
3000 77% Emission
Various Renewable Energy Scenarios)
Reduction
by 2030
2500 30%
MW
STEAM PLANT
2000 PRODUCTION 20%
18%
20%
1500 13%
10% 11% 11%
1000 9% 6% 6%
10% 6% 5%
POWER RESOURCES LIPA RUNS FIRST
500 (Highly Efficient Energy Resources Run
First for Economic & Emission Benefits)
0%
0
Barrett Steam Port Jefferson Steam Northport Steam
1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10AM 11AM NOON 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10PM 11PM 12PM
-500
10 | ENERGY GUIDE: Integrated Resource Plan & Repowering Studies 11 | ENERGY GUIDE: Integrated Resource Plan & Repowering Studies
Key Findings Key Findings
The capacity factors of the proposed plants are lower than typical
for new plants mainly due to the addition of renewable energy to
the electric grid
Proposed Combined Cycle Plants Have a Net Cost of Up To $5 Billion through 2030
Natural Gas Prices are Back to 1990 Levels
10.00 $6
$5 Combined Projects
Combined Projects w/ additional 1900 MW Typical capacity factor of new
8.00 $4 OSW above CES Compliance Case combined cycle plant (80%)
$ Billion
$3 Caithness II
$ Dthm
$2
6.00 Barrett Repowering
$0
4.00 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Capacity Factor
2.00
Barrett Port Jefferson Caithness II All Three
2004
2006
2009
2008
2003
2005
2002
2007
2010
2001
2014
2016
1999
2013
2015
1998
2012
1997
Increase in Average
2011
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Key Findings Key Findings
Advancing technology and economies of scale are expected to An independent condition assessment by RCM Technologies
result in a decline in renewable energy costs concluded that with reasonable capital and O&M expenditures the
steam units should operate reliably through the study period
$0.18
$0.18
$0.14
Plant Equivalent Availability: Summer (%)
cents per kwh (2025)
$0.16
cents per kwh (2025)
$0.12
$0.14
Barrett Steam Units 92
$0.10 $0.12
$0.08
$0.10 Northport Steam Units 94
All three projects w/
Any one project
additional 1900 MW OSW
$0.08 And CES compliance
above CES Compliance Case
$0.06
Port Jefferson Steam Units 98
All three projects
And CES compliance
$0.04 Barrett Caithness II New Combined Cycle Plant
Contractual Guarantee 95 - 97
$0.02 (typical)
$0.00
50% 60% 70% 80%
Capacity Factor
Range of costs for
Barrett Port Jefferson Caithness II
Renewables
14 | ENERGY GUIDE: Integrated Resource Plan & Repowering Studies 15 | ENERGY GUIDE: Integrated Resource Plan & Repowering Studies
Key Findings Key Findings
New peaking units, batteries, demand response, or other
distributed energy resources may better support renewable We do not find a compelling reason for LIPA to proceed with
resources than existing steam units or new combined cycle plants Caithness II or the repowering projects. None of the plants are
needed for reliability or economic purposes. For all the options
the plant costs exceed their benefits for at least the next decade.
Existing PSA Units New Units
Characteristic Peaking Units (Simple Cycle)
The DPS reviewed the Brattle Report and concludes that adoption
Combined
Steam Units Combustion
Turbines Cycle Large
Frame
Small
Frame Areo
of NYSRC/NYISO planning criteria in 2014 and the analysis with
respect to the need for Caithness II are reasonable.
Cold Start Time 26 30 hours 10-30 minutes 3 4 hours 10 min 10 min 10 min
Department of Public Service
16 1 4 No technical minimum limit The mission of the New York State Department of Public Service is to ensure affordable,
Time (hours) safe, secure and reliable access to electric and gas service for New York States
residential and business consumers
Ramp Rate
2-4 NA 15 - 40 50 100+ 25 25
(MWs/min)
16 | ENERGY GUIDE: Integrated Resource Plan & Repowering Studies 17 | ENERGY GUIDE: Integrated Resource Plan & Repowering Studies
LIPA Staff Recommendation Supporting Documents
Monitor * 2017 Integrated Resource Plan:
Long Island energy and peak demand growth each year PSEG Long Island Summary Analysis
The operating performance and budgets of generation plants relative to
expectations
* LIPA Generation Planning Review of
Evaluate Caithness Long Island II, and E.F. Barrett and
Opportunities for economies of scale in offshore wind by Port Jefferson Repowering by the Brattle Group
partnering with NYSERDA and other local utilities in procurement
and interconnection to the electric grid
* Letter from New York State Department
Maintain of Public Service regarding Brattle Group review
Energy efficiency programs to reduce load by 950 megawatts through
2030
* Repowering Feasibility Study of
Efforts for fair property tax reductions on existing plants that reflect
their past and forecasted decline in use Port Jefferson Power Station
Study
* Repowering Feasibility Study of
The peaking generation fleet and its ability to accommodate the flexible E.F. Barrett Power Station
operating profile required by greater amounts of renewable generation
Selected retirements and modernization of peaking units
* Condition Assessment of National Grid Electric
Cancel Generation Assets by RCM Technologies
The 2010 Generation RFP with no award
Further study of the combined cycle repowering proposals for the
Barrett and Port Jefferson steam plants For more information, visit PSEGLINY.com or LIPOWER.org
Conduct
Technology neutral competitive procurements (e.g. peaking plants,
batteries, demand response, etc.) to meet future identified needs,
including utilizing rights to the National Grid brownfield power plant
sites to obtain bids by multiple developers
A repowering study of the Northport steam plant commencing October
2018, as required by law
18 | ENERGY GUIDE: Integrated Resource Plan & Repowering Studies 19 | ENERGY GUIDE: Integrated Resource Plan & Repowering Studies