Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 10

6RIWZDUH 0RGHOV IRU 5HOD\V

:RUNLQJ *URXS & RI WKH 6\VWHPV 3URWHFWLRQ VXEFRPPLWWHH RI WKH 365&


3* 0F/DUHQ &KDLUPDQ  . 0XVWDSKL 9LFHFKDLUPDQ  * %HQPRX\DO 6 &KDQR $ *LUJLV & +HQYLOOH 0 .H
]XQRYLF / .RMRYLF 5 0DUWWLOD 0 0HLVLQJHU * 0LFKHO 06 6DFKGHY 9 6NHQG]LF 76 6LGKX ' 7]LRXYDUDV

$EVWUDFW  7KLV SDSHU UHYLHZV WKH SDVW DQG SUHVHQW


XVHV RI UHOD\ PRGHOV ,W GLVFXVVHV WKH YDULRXV W\SHV RI 
7\SLFDO WLPH FXUYHV
PRGHOV ZKDW LQIRUPDWLRQ LV UHTXLUHG WR EXLOG VXFK PRG W\SH &2 RYHU FXUUHQW UHOD\

HOV DQG WKH PRGHO YDOLGDWLRQ SURFHVV ([DPSOHV RI SUHV


 F\FOHV

HQW DQG SRVVLEOH IXWXUH XVH RI VRIWZDUH PRGHOV DUH JLYHQ &XUUHQW WDS VHWWLQJV
 DPSHUHV

.H\ZRUGV UHOD\V UHOD\ PRGHOV VLPXODWLRQ YDOLGDWLRQ

2SHUDWLQJ WLPH LQ VHFRQGV




, ,1752'8&7,21 7LPH GLDO VHWWLQJ




6RIWZDUH PRGHOV LQ WKH IRUP RI HTXDWLRQV UHSUHVHQWLQJ 

WKH RSHUDWLQJ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI UHOD\V KDYH ORQJ EHHQ XVHG 



E\ DFDGHPLFV PDQXIDFWXUHUV DQG FRQVXOWDQWV IRU GHVLJQLQJ 


UHOD\V DQG FKHFNLQJ WKHLU SHUIRUPDQFH 7KHVH PRGHOV GH 


VFULEH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV ZKLFK DUH GHILQHG LQ D YDULHW\ RI ZD\V 

VXFK DV FXUUHQW YHUVXV WLPH GLIIHUHQWLDO FXUUHQW YHUVXV UH 

VWUDLQ FXUUHQW DQG UHDFWDQFH YHUVXV UHVLVWDQFH 7KH PRVW 

IDPLOLDU LV WKH WLPHFXUUHQW FKDUDFWHULVWLF RI DQ RYHUFXUUHQW 




UHOD\ VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH  


7KH DPRXQW RI GHWDLO UHTXLUHG WR UHSUHVHQW D UHOD\ LV GH 
             
WHUPLQHG E\ WKH SXUSRVH IRU ZKLFK LWV PRGHO LV WR EH XVHG &XUUHQW DV D PXOWLSOH RI WDS VHWWLQJ
$ PRGHO EDVHG RQ IXQGDPHQWDO IUHTXHQF\ SKDVRUV PD\ EH
DGHTXDWH LQ VRPH FDVHV ZKHUHDV LQ RWKHU FDVHV WKH DQDORJXH )LJXUH  7\SLFDO RYHUFXUUHQW UHOD\ WLPLQJ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV
HOHFWURQLFV DQG VLJQDO IORZV XVHG LQ D UHOD\ PXVW DOVR EH
IRU UHSUHVHQWLQJ WLPHFXUUHQW FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI RYHUFXUUHQW
PRGHOOHG
UHOD\V DQG ODWHU WKRVH HTXDWLRQV ZHUH XVHG IRU GHVLJQLQJ
:KDWHYHU GHJUHH RI GHWDLO LV XVHG LQ D PRGHO WKH HQJL RYHUFXUUHQW UHOD\V LQFOXGLQJ D UHVHW FKDUDFWHULVWLF
QHHU PXVW EH DZDUH RI WKH OLPLWDWLRQV RI WKH PRGHO )DLOXUH
0RGHOOLQJ DQG WHVWLQJ RI GLVWDQFH UHOD\V KDV DOVR EHHQ UH
WR EHDU WKLV LQ PLQG LV D ZHOONQRZQ ZHDNQHVV LQ DOO GHVLJQ
SRUWHG LQ WKH OLWHUDWXUH 7KHVH PRGHOV ZHUH GHYHORSHG E\
VWXGLHV EDVHG RQ PRGHOV
PDQXIDFWXUHUV IRU LQYHVWLJDWLQJ QHZ GHVLJQV DQG ZHUH XVHG
$OO PRGHOV DUH LQWHQGHG IRU FKHFNLQJ WKH SHUIRUPDQFH RI E\ XWLOLW\ HQJLQHHUV IRU WHVWLQJ H[LVWLQJ UHOD\V 2QH VXFK
UHOD\V ZKHQ LQSXWV RI D VSHFLILHG QDWXUH DUH DSSOLHG 7KH VWXG\ >@ PRGHOOHG PKR HOHPHQWV RI GLVWDQFH UHOD\V IRU
PRVW FRPPRQO\ XVHG LQSXWV KDYH EHHQ WKH IXQGDPHQWDO IUH VWXG\LQJ WKH HIIHFW RI WKH W\SH RI SRODUL]DWLRQ RQ WKH GLUHF
TXHQF\ FRPSRQHQWV RI FXUUHQWV DQG YROWDJHV 7KH PRGHOV WLRQDOLW\ RI WKH UHOD\V DQG IRU YHULI\LQJ WKH SHUIRUPDQFH RI
LPSOHPHQW WKH SURFHVV RI VXEVWLWXWLQJ WKH YDOXHV RI WKH LQSXWV WKH UHOD\V GXULQJ VSHFLILF RSHUDWLQJ FRQGLWLRQV 2WKHU VWXG
LQ WKH HTXDWLRQV DQG FDOFXODWLQJ WKH UHVXOWV WR GHWHUPLQH WKH LHV GHYHORSHG PRGHOV DQG XVHG WKHP IRU GHYHORSLQJ DQ LP
SHUIRUPDQFH RI WKH UHOD\ ,QLWLDOO\ PDQXIDFWXUHUV XVHG PRG SURYHG PHWKRG IRU WHVWLQJ YROWDJH SRODUL]HG PKR UHOD\V > @
HOV RI WKLV NLQG IRU GHWHUPLQLQJ LI WKH SHUIRUPDQFH RI WKHLU DQG \HW DQRWKHU VWXG\ >@ GHYHORSHG D VWDWHVSDFH PRGHO RI
UHOD\V ZRXOG EH DFFHSWDEOH RU QRW &KDUDFWHULVWLFV RI RYHUFXU DQ HOHFWURPHFKDQLFDO GLVWDQFH UHOD\ IRU VWXG\LQJ WKH WUDQ
UHQW UHOD\V ZHUH WKH ILUVW WR EH PRGHOOHG 0DWKHPDWLFDO PRG VLHQW EHKDYLRXU RI WKH UHOD\
HOV >@ >@ ZHUH GHYHORSHG LQ WKH IRUP RI DOJHEUDLF HTXDWLRQV
3KDVRU EDVHG PRGHOV ZHUH WKH ILUVW WR EH ZLGHO\ XVHG E\
LQGXVWU\ DQG DFDGHPLFV WR GHVLJQ UHOD\V DQG FKHFN WKHLU
SHUIRUPDQFH 6XEVHTXHQW ZRUN ZDV RQ WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI
WUDQVLHQW PRGHOV RI UHOD\V VRPH RI WKLV ZRUN KDV EHHQ UH
SRUWHG LQ WKH OLWHUDWXUH > @ 7KHVH PRGHOV WDNH LQWR
DFFRXQW WKH SUHVHQFH RI KLJK IUHTXHQF\ DQG GF FRPSRQHQWV


LQ WKH UHOD\ LQSXWV %HFDXVH WKH REMHFWLYHV IRU GHYHORSLQJ  ,Q WKH FDVH RI HOHFWURPHFKDQLFDO UHOD\V GLVN LQHUWLD DQG
GLIIHUHQW WUDQVLHQW PRGHOV DUH QRW LGHQWLFDO WKH FRPSOH[LW\ RI FRQWDFW ERXQFH DQG ZLSH
WKH PRGHOV YDULHV VXEVWDQWLDOO\ ,W LV DOVR LPSRUWDQW WR UHDOLVH
$GGLWLRQDO PRGHOV RI YDU\LQJ GHJUHHV RI FRPSOH[LW\ DUH
WKDW LW LV HDVLHU WR GHYHORS WUDQVLHQW PRGHOV IRU FRPSXWHU
UHTXLUHG WR LQYHVWLJDWH WKH YDULRXV FRQFHUQV OLVWHG DERYH
EDVHG UHOD\V WKDQ IRU HOHFWURPHFKDQLFDO DQG VROLGVWDWH UH
7KH VLPSOHVW PRGHO ZKLFK UHSUHVHQWV WKH WUDQVLHQW EHKDYLRU
OD\V
RI D WLPH RYHUFXUUHQW UHOD\ LV SURYLGHG LQ UHIHUHQFH >@ $
%RWK SKDVRUEDVHG DQG WUDQVLHQW PRGHOV RI UHOD\V KDYH WUDQVLHQW PRGHO RI D WLPH RYHUFXUUHQW UHOD\ FDOFXODWHV WKH
SURYHG WR EH XVHIXO WRROV IRU WHVWLQJ UHOD\V DQG IRU FRQGXFWLQJ GHJUHH RI SURJUHVV WRZDUGV WKH WULS OHYHO DW HDFK LQVWDQW LQ
D YDULHW\ RI SURWHFWLRQ DQG V\VWHP VWXGLHV > @ 6XEVWDQWLDO WLPH IRU WKH VSHFLILF FXUUHQW DW WKDW WLPH 7KH SURJUHVV WR
DFWLYLW\ LV WDNLQJ SODFH LQ WKLV DUHD DW WKLV WLPH ZDUGV WULS RU UHVHW LV REWDLQHG E\ LQWHJUDWLQJ WKH UHOD\ FXU
UHQW RYHU WKH SHULRG RI LQWHUHVW WR GHWHUPLQH UHOD\ UHVSRQVH
3UHVHQWO\ VHYHUDO VRIWZDUH SDFNDJHV DUH FRPPHUFLDOO\
7KLV W\SH RI PRGHO LV XVHIXO IRU LQYHVWLJDWLQJ WKH HIIHFW RI
DYDLODEOH 7KHVH SDFNDJHV SURYLGH VRIWZDUH PRGHOV RI SUR
FKDQJLQJ PDJQLWXGHV RI FXUUHQW DV QRWHG LQ LWHP  DERYH
WHFWLYH UHOD\V DQG SHUIRUP IDXOW DQDO\VLV RI WKH SRZHU V\VWHP
6RPH RI WKHVH SDFNDJHV DUH GHVFULEHG LQ 6HFWLRQ ,,,$ 7KH G\QDPLF PRGHO XVHG LQ 5HIHUHQFH >@ GHWHUPLQHV WKH
UHVSRQVH WR WKH IXQGDPHQWDO IUHTXHQF\ SKDVRU FXUUHQWV
&RQVLGHULQJ WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI WKH VXEMHFW RI UHOD\ PRGHO
RQO\ $ PRUH FRPSOH[ PRGHO LV UHTXLUHG WR LQYHVWLJDWH WKH
OLQJ WKH ,((( 3RZHU 6\VWHP 5HOD\LQJ &RPPLWWHH IRUPHG D
HIIHFWV QRWHG LQ LWHPV  WR  DERYH 7KH PRUH FRPSOH[
:RUNLQJ *URXS DQG DVVLJQHG LW WKH WDVN RI
PRGHO ZRXOG LQFOXGH PRGHOV RI ILOWHUV DQG UHVSRQVH RI WKH
x UHYLHZLQJ WKH SUHVHQW VWDWH RI WKH DUW RI WKLV DUHD DQG UHOD\ RYHU WKH IXOO IUHTXHQF\ VSHFWUXP RI LQWHUHVW 7KH PRVW
x UHFRPPHQGLQJ JXLGHOLQHV IRU IXUWKHU ZRUN LQ WKLV DUHD FRPSOH[ PRGHO RI DOO ZRXOG EH UHTXLUHG WR GHWHUPLQH WKH
HIIHFWV RI WKH HOHFWURPHFKDQLFDO FRPSRQHQWV QRWHG LQ LWHP 
7KLV SDSHU LV WKH UHVXOW RI WKH ZRUN GRQH E\ WKH :RUNLQJ
DERYH 6RPH RI WKH VLJQLILFDQW HIIHFWV VXFK DV FRQWDFW FRQGL
*URXS DQG UHSUHVHQWV WKH YLHZV RI LWV PHPEHUV 7KH SDSHU
WLRQ DQG HOHFWULFDO ORDGLQJ ZLOO YDU\ IURP UHOD\ WR UHOD\ RU
SURYLGHV VRPH EDFNJURXQG LQIRUPDWLRQ UHOHYDQW WR UHOD\
IURP DSSOLFDWLRQ WR DSSOLFDWLRQ DQG DUH WKHUHIRUH H[WUHPHO\
PRGHOLQJ ,W WKHQ GHVFULEHV WKH W\SHV RI UHOD\ PRGHO ZKLFK
GLIILFXOW WR PRGHO DFFXUDWHO\ ,W LV LPSRUWDQW WR EDODQFH WKH
DUH LQ FRPPRQ XVH 7KHVH LQFOXGH JHQHULF PRGHOV DQG GH
DPRXQW RI HIIRUW UHTXLUHG WR GHYHORS DQG YDOLGDWH D PRGHO
WDLOHG PRGHOV 7KH LQIRUPDWLRQ UHTXLUHG IRU EXLOGLQJ D UHOD\
ZLWK WKH DPRXQW RI HIIRUW UHTXLUHG WR WHVW WKH UHOD\ GLUHFWO\ WR
PRGHO DQG YDOLGDWLQJ LW DUH WKHQ JLYHQ )LQDOO\ VXPPDULHV
LQYHVWLJDWH FHUWDLQ HIIHFWV
RI WKH FXUUHQW XVHV DQG IXWXUH XVHV RI UHOD\ PRGHOV DUH LQ
FOXGHG 7KH YDVW PDMRULW\ RI PRGHOV LQ FXUUHQW XVH HPSOR\ DOJR
ULWKPV EDVHG RQ SKDVRU YDOXHV

,, %$&.*5281' ,1)250$7,21


5HOD\ HQJLQHHUV DUH IDPLOLDU ZLWK WKH WUDGLWLRQDO PHWKRG ,,, 3+$625 02'(/6
IRU VHWWLQJ RYHUFXUUHQW WLPH JUDGHG SURWHFWLRQ V\VWHPV $ 7KH IXQGDPHQWDO IUHTXHQF\ VLPXODWLRQV DQG PRGHOV DUH
6RIWZDUH PRGHO IRU VXFK D UHOD\ WDNHV WKH IRUP RI HTXD KHOSIXO IRU PDQ\ DSSOLFDWLRQV 3KDVRUEDVHG PRGHOV FDQ EH
WLRQV ZKLFK UHSUHVHQW WKH VHW RI WLPHFXUUHQW FXUYHV VKRZQ LQ XVHG DPRQJ RWKHUV IRU WKH IROORZLQJ SXUSRVHV
)LJXUH  7KLV PRGHO LQ JUDSKLFDO IRUP LV DYDLODEOH IURP WKH
 7LPH JUDGHG RYHUFXUUHQW FXUYHV )LJXUH  
PDQXIDFWXUHU DQG FDQ EH HDVLO\ YDOLGDWHG XVLQJ D UHOD\ WHVW
VHW 7KH XVHU ZRXOG LQSXW WKH UPV IDXOW FXUUHQW LQ PXOWLSOHV  7KH OHYHO VHWWLQJ RI DQ LQVWDQWDQHRXV UHOD\
RI WDS VHWWLQJ DQG WKH WLPH GLDO VHWWLQJ WR ILQG WKH RSHUDWLQJ  7KH FKDUDFWHULVWLF RI D GLUHFWLRQDO RYHUFXUUHQW UHOD\ UHS
WLPH RI WKH UHOD\ UHVHQWHG E\ FXUUHQW DQG YROWDJH SKDVRUV SORWWHG RQ WKH
FRPSOH[ SODQH
:KLOH WKH PRGHO RI )LJXUH  LV ZLGHO\ XVHG IRU UHOD\ DSSOL
 7KH FKDUDFWHULVWLF RI D SRZHU UHOD\ SORWWHG RQ WKH 34
FDWLRQ DQG VHWWLQJ VWXGLHV D FRQVLGHUDEOH DPRXQW RI LQIRU
SODQH
PDWLRQ FDQQRW EH GHWHUPLQHG IURP LW )RU LQVWDQFH WKH UH
 7KH FKDUDFWHULVWLF RI D SHUFHQWDJH UHVWUDLQHG GLIIHUHQWLDO
VSRQVH RI WKH UHOD\ WR WKH IROORZLQJ HIIHFWV FDQQRW EH UHDGLO\
UHOD\ SORWWHG DV GLIIHUHQWLDO FXUUHQW YHUVXV UHVWUDLQW FXU
GHWHUPLQHG
UHQW
 &KDQJH LQ IDXOW FXUUHQW DIWHU WKH UHOD\ KDV VWDUWHG WR
$OWKRXJK WKH DERYH OLVWHG SKDVRU PRGHOV DUH RIWHQ SORWWHG
RSHUDWH VXFK DV LQ WKH FDVH RI DQ HYROYLQJ IDXOW 
RQ SDSHU WKH\ FDQ EH GHYHORSHG LQWR VRIWZDUH PRGHOV E\
 7UDQVLHQW GF RIIVHW ZKHQ LW LV VLJQLILFDQW )RU H[DPSOH
WUDQVODWLQJ WKHLU FKDUDFWHULVWLFV LQWR HTXDWLRQV LQ D FRPSXWHU
DW KLJK PXOWLSOHV RI SLFNXS LI WKH WLPH GLDO VHWWLQJ LV
SURJUDP 7KH XVH RI D VRIWZDUH SKDVRU PRGHO WR UHSUHVHQW
VPDOO WKH RSHUDWLQJ WLPH RI WKH UHOD\ FDQ EH LQ WKH VDPH
UHOD\ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV LV KHOSIXO WR LQYHVWLJDWH WKH FKDQJH LQ
UHJLRQ DV WKH WLPH FRQVWDQW RI WKH WUDQVLHQW GF FRPSR
FKDUDFWHULVWLFV ZLWK FKDQJHV LQ RWKHU SDUDPHWHUV )RU H[DP
QHQW
 +DUPRQLFV DQG RII QRPLQDO IUHTXHQF\ FXUUHQWV


SOH WKH PLQLPXP RSHUDWLQJ FXUUHQW RI D GLUHFWLRQDO IXQFWLRQ EDQNV RI UHOD\V DQG DUH LQ ZLGHVSUHDG XVH DW WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ
PD\ YDU\ ZLWK WKH PDJQLWXGH RI WKH SRODUL]LQJ YROWDJH DQG VXEWUDQVPLVVLRQ OHYHOV

7KH SKDVRU PRGHOV RI LQVWDQWDQHRXV UHOD\V GR QRW JLYH 7KH VRIWZDUHV DOVR LQFOXGH SKDVRU PRGHOV RI GLVWDQFH UH
DQ\ LQGLFDWLRQ RI WLPH UHVSRQVH ,Q WLPH GHOD\HG UHOD\V OD\V 7KH WUDQVLHQW SHUIRUPDQFH RI WKH SULPDU\ GLVWDQFH SUR
ZKHUH WLPH LV RQH RI WKH PHDVXUHG TXDQWLWLHV DV ZLWK D WLPH WHFWLRQ LV QRW PRGHOHG 7KH PRGHOV FRQVLVWV RI WKH SKDVRU
RYHUFXUUHQW UHOD\ LW LV XVXDOO\ IDLUO\ VLPSOH WR PRGHO WKH HTXDWLRQV XVHG E\ WKH PHDVXUHPHQW HOHPHQW RI WKH UHOD\ ,Q
WLPH UHVSRQVH 7KH G\QDPLF PRGHO RI D WLPH RYHUFXUUHQW WKH FDVH RI PHPRU\ SRODUL]HG UHOD\V LW LV QHFHVVDU\ WR KDYH
UHOD\ >@ LV RQH H[DPSOH RI VXFK D PRGHO $OWKRXJK WKH VRPH SUHIDXOW FRQGLWLRQV HVWDEOLVKHG IRU ORQJ HQRXJK WR
G\QDPLF PRGHO LV VLPSOH LW LV YHU\ LPSRUWDQW WR HQVXUH WKDW SULPH WKH UHOD\ 6RPH EXW QRW DOO >@ FRPPHUFLDO VRIWZDUH
LW DFFXUDWHO\ UHSUHVHQWV WKH SHUIRUPDQFH RI WKH DFWXDO UHOD\ SDFNDJHV PD\ KDYH SUREOHPV LQ GLVSOD\LQJ WKH FKDUDFWHULV
,Q SDUWLFXODU DQ\ LQWHJUDWLQJ DFWLRQ RYHU WLPH VXFK DV LV WLFV RI FURVV DQG PHPRU\ SRODUL]HG UHOD\V EHFDXVH WKH VKDSHV
SURYLGHG E\ DQ LQGXFWLRQ GLVN RU LWV HOHFWURQLF HTXLYDOHQW RI WKH RSHUDWLQJ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV FKDQJH G\QDPLFDOO\ GXULQJ
PXVW EH FRQVLGHUHG LQ PRGHO GHYHORSPHQW >@ IDXOWV GHSHQGLQJ RQ WKH V\VWHP LPSHGDQFHV 1RQHWKHOHVV WKH
FRUUHFW VWHDG\ VWDWH RSHUDWLRQ RI WKH SRODUL]HG UHOD\V LV PRG
7KH SULPDU\ OLPLWDWLRQ RI PRVW SKDVRU PRGHOV LV WKHLU LQ
HOHG
DELOLW\ WR KDQGOH WLPHUHODWHG FRQVHTXHQFHV DIIHFWLQJ IXQGD
PHQWDO IUHTXHQF\ SKDVRUV 7KHVH WLPH UHODWHG FRQVHTXHQFHV
LQFOXGH WKH HIIHFWV RI '& RIIVHW QRQOLQHDULWLHV RI &7V DQG % 'LVWDQFH 5HOD\ 0RGHOV

&97V DQG SURWHFWLYH UHOD\ PHPRU\ FLUFXLWV ORVLQJ VWRUHG )XQGDPHQWDO IUHTXHQF\ SKDVRU PRGHOV FDQ ZKHQ XVHG
YROWDJH RU FXUUHQW GDWD 2WKHU HIIHFWV DUH OLVWHG LQ 6HFWLRQ DSSURSULDWHO\ SURYLGH XVHIXO LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ WKH UHVSRQVH RI
,9 UHOD\V 3KDVRU PRGHOV DUH HVSHFLDOO\ XVHIXO LQ HYDOXDWLQJ WKH
,Q VSLWH RI WKHLU OLPLWDWLRQV LQ UHSUHVHQWLQJ WLPH UHVSRQVH UHVSRQVH RI GLVWDQFH UHOD\ PKR HOHPHQWV LQ YDULRXV DSSOLFD
VRIWZDUH SKDVRU PRGHOV GR SURYLGH DQ LPSRUWDQW EHQHILW WLRQV $Q H[DPSOH RI VXFK D VWXG\ LV SUHVHQWHG LQ UHIHUHQFH
ZKLFK LV FRPPRQ WR DOO PRGHOV 7KH\ SURYLGH WKH DELOLW\ WR >@ ZKLFK GLVFXVVHV WKH GLUHFWLRQDOLW\ RI GLVWDQFH UHOD\ HOH
REVHUYH XVXDOO\ E\ PHDQV RI JUDSKLFDO SORWV WKH ERXQGDU\ PHQWV DV D IXQFWLRQ RI WKH W\SH RI SRODUL]DWLRQ DQG WKH SUH
RI UHOD\ RSHUDWLRQ RQ WKH VDPH GLDJUDP DV WKH DFWXDO VWHDG\ IDXOW OLQH ORDGLQJ
VWDWH SDUDPHWHUV ZKLFK DUH FDOFXODWHG E\ WKH UHOD\ 7KH 7KH VWDQGDUG PDWKHPDWLFDO DSSURDFK IRU DQDO\]LQJ WKH
DELOLW\ WR REVHUYH WKH PDUJLQ EHWZHHQ WKH ERXQGDU\ RI RSHUD VWHDG\ VWDWH EHKDYLRXU RI SKDVH DQG DPSOLWXGH FRPSDUDWRUV LV
WLRQ DQG WKH FDOFXODWHG SDUDPHWHUV LV YHU\ KHOSIXO LQ GHYHO WR GHILQH WZR SKDVRUV 6 DQG 6 DV IROORZV
RSLQJ UHOLDEOH SURWHFWLRQ DSSOLFDWLRQV DQG VHWWLQJV
6  ,U = 5  . O 9 U
$ &RPPHUFLDOO\ $YDLODEOH 6RIWZDUH
6 . 9U  . ,U =5 . 9SRO
&RPPHUFLDOO\ DYDLODEOH VRIWZDUH SURJUDPV DUH PRVWO\ LQ
WHUDFWLYH ZLWK WKH XVHU DQG SUHVHQW LQIRUPDWLRQ LQ JUDSKLFDO ZKHUH
IRUP 7KH\ FDOFXODWH UHOD\ UHVSRQVHV WR 506 YDOXHV RI WKH
VWHDG\ VWDWH IXQGDPHQWDO IUHTXHQF\ SKDVRUV PDWKHPDWLFDO
6 LV WKH SKDVRU RI RSHUDWLQJ YROWDJH

PRGHOV RI WKH QHWZRUN DQG SRZHU V\VWHP FRPSRQHQWV 7KH


6 LV WKH SKDVRU RI SRODUL]DWLRQ YROWDJH

DFFXUDF\ RI WKH PDWKHPDWLFDO V\VWHP PRGHOV HPSKDVLVHV WKH


,U LV WKH FXUUHQW RI D SDUWLFXODU IDXOW ORRS

IXQGDPHQWDO IUHTXHQF\ UHVSRQVH SUHVXPHV VWHDG\ VWDWH FRQ


9U LV WKH YROWDJH RI D SDUWLFXODU LPSHGDQFH ORRS

GLWLRQV DQG LGHDO FRPSRQHQWV EXW H[FOXGHV WLPH UHODWHG FRQ


=5 LV WKH UHDFK RI WKH PKR GHWHFWRU

VHTXHQFHV $ IXOO UDQJH RI WKH QHWZRUN FRPSRQHQWV DV ZHOO


9SRO LV WKH PHPRU\ RU FURVV SRODUL]DWLRQ YROWDJH DQG
DV SKHQRPHQD VXFK DV GLVWULEXWHG ]HURVHTXHQFH PXWXDO
FRXSOLQJV DQG VKXQW DGPLWWDQFHV FDQ EH PRGHOOHG )DXOW .  .  . 
DQG . DUH FRPSOH[ FRQVWDQWV FKRVHQ WR GHILQH
W\SHV ZLWK DQG ZLWKRXW IDXOW UHVLVWDQFH DV ZHOO DV FURVV WKH RSHUDWLQJ FKDUDFWHULVWLF
FRXQWU\ IDXOWV FDQ EH VSHFLILHG DQ\ZKHUH LQ WKH V\VWHP ,Q 7KH RSHUDWLQJ FLUFOHV DQG OLQHV FDQ EH GHULYHG E\ LPSRV
WHUQDO QHWZRUN FRPSRQHQW IDXOWV VXFK DV WXUQWRWXUQ WUDQV LQJ SKDVH RU DPSOLWXGH FRQVWUDLQWV RQ WKH UDWLR 66 $T
IRUPHU RU JHQHUDWRU IDXOWV DUH QRW XVXDOO\ LQFOXGHG 7KH DF 7KH PRVW IDPLOLDU FRQVWUDLQW LV WKH PKR FLUFOH HQIRUFHG E\
FXUDF\ RI WKH VROXWLRQV SURYLGHG E\ WKHVH VRIWZDUH SDFNDJHV WKH SKDVH DQJOH OLPLWV
LV JHQHUDOO\ GLFWDWHG E\ WKH GHJUHH WR ZKLFK WKH XVHU FKRRVHV
WR PRGHO WKH QHWZRUN EHLQJ LQYHVWLJDWHG S d T d S
7KH UHOD\ PRGHOV LQ WKHVH VRIWZDUH SDFNDJHV DVVXPH WKDW ,I . DQG . DUH VHOHFWHG WR EH XQLW\ DQG . LV VHW WR ]HUR
WKH UHOD\V RSHUDWH DW WKH LQVWDQW ZKHQ WKH SKDVRU HTXDWLRQV WKH UHVXOWLQJ RSHUDWLQJ FLUFOHV WDNH WKH IRUP VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH
DUH VDWLVILHG DQG WKH WLPH HTXDO WR WKH VHOHFWHG WLPHGHOD\ LI  & LV WKH VHOISRODUL]HG FKDUDFWHULVWLF & LV WKH H[SDQGHG
DQ\ KDV H[SLUHG 7KHVH SURJUDPV KDYH EXLOW XS ODUJH GDWD IRUZDUG IDXOW FKDUDFWHULVWLF DQG & LV WKH FRQWUDFWHG FKDUDF


)LJXUH  5HGXFHG V\VWHP DURXQG VHULHV FRPSHQVDWHG
OLQHV XVHG WR GHWHUPLQH VXLWDELOLW\ RI UHOD\V 5 WR 5

,9 75$16,(17 02'(/6


*LYHQ WKH IDFW WKDW ZKHQ SURWHFWLQJ D FRPSOH[ QHWZRUN D
UHOD\ PD\ RSHUDWH EHIRUH WKH VWHDG\ VWDWH LV UHDFKHG D PRGHO
RI D UHOD\ VKRXOG EH VXFK WKDW LWV EHKDYLRXU LQ WKH WUDQVLHQW
VWDWH LV WKH VDPH DV WKH UHDO SURGXFW 6XFK VLWXDWLRQV UHTXLUH
WUDQVLHQW PRGHOV IRU WKHLU SURSHU RIIOLQH HYDOXDWLRQ

0RGHOV RI UHOD\V ZKLFK PDNH GHFLVLRQV ZLWKLQ WZR RU


WKUHH SHULRGV RI WKH IXQGDPHQWDO IUHTXHQF\ PXVW WDNH LQWR
DFFRXQW WKH SUHVHQFH RI WKH WUDQVLHQW FRPSRQHQWV LQ WKH LQ
SXWV )RU H[DPSOH GF RIIVHW FRPSRQHQWV DUH SUHVHQW LQ IDXOW
FXUUHQWV DQG YROWDJHV ZKLFK DUH DSSOLHG WR UHOD\V 7R HQVXUH
WHULVWLF IRU UHYHUVH IDXOWV 7KH H[DFW VL]H RI & DQG & GH
SURSHU WUDQVLHQW SHUIRUPDQFH UHOD\ PDQXIDFWXUHUV DQG XVHUV
SHQGV RQ WKH W\SH RI SRODUL]DWLRQ WKH YDOXH RI . DQG WKH
KDYH IUHTXHQWO\ SHUIRUPHG H[SHQVLYH DQG WLPH FRQVXPLQJ
V\VWHP LPSHGDQFHV EXW DOO FKDUDFWHULVWLFV SDVV WKURXJK WKH
WHVWV ZKLFK FRQVLVW RI LQMHFWLQJ UHOD\V ZLWK DQDORJ VLJQDOV
UHDFK SRLQW = 5
ZKLFK PD\ EH HQFRXQWHUHG LQ DFWXDO VHUYLFH >@ ,I VRIWZDUH
%\ PRGHOLQJ WKH PKR UHOD\ E\ WKH DERYH HTXDWLRQV DQG PRGHOV ZKLFK SURSHUO\ UHSURGXFH WKH WUDQVLHQW SHUIRUPDQFH
FKDUDFWHULVWLFV LW LV SRVVLEOH WR DFKLHYH XVHIXO UHVXOWV LQ RI UHOD\V ZHUH DYDLODEOH WKH WHVW VLJQDOV LQ QXPHULFDO IRUP
FRPSOH[ VLWXDWLRQV VXFK DV WKH VHULHV FRPSHQVDWHG FDVH FRXOG EH DSSOLHG WR WKH PRGHO WKHUHE\ DYRLGLQJ WKH QHHG WR
VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH  7KH VWXG\ >@ VKRZHG WKDW ZLWK VWHDG\ FRQYHUW WKH VLJQDOV WR DQDORJXH IRUP DPSOLI\ WKHP DQG
VWDWH IDXOW PDNH ZLUH FRQQHFWLRQV WR WKH SK\VLFDO UHOD\ DQG PRQLWRULQJ
HTXLSPHQW 7KHUHIRUH VRIWZDUH PRGHOV UHGXFH WKH GHJUHH
)LJXUH  0KR FLUFOHV FRUUHVSRQGLQJ WR YDULRXV W\SHV RI DQG WKH DVVRFLDWHG H[SHQVH RI SUH DQG SRVWDSSOLFDWLRQ
SRODUL]DWLRQ DQG IDXOW GLUHFWLRQ
WHVWLQJ ZLWK VLJQDOV RI GLIIHUHQW OHYHOV RI FRPSOH[LW\ $Q
RWKHU DGYDQWDJH RI VRIWZDUH PRGHOV LV WKDW WKH LQWHUQDO
SURFHVVHV RI UHOD\V FDQ EH H[DPLQHG DQG FKDUWHG RYHU WKH
FRXUVH RI DQ\ HYHQW RI LQWHUHVW 7KLV PHDQV WKDW LQVWHDG RI
WKH VLPSOH WULS RU QR WULS UHVXOW RI D WHVW WKH PRGHO SUR
YLGHV LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ WKH PDUJLQV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH DFWXDO
UHVSRQVH >@ >@

,Q WKH DEVHQFH RI DSSURSULDWH WUDQVLHQW PRGHOV VXFK V\V


WHP FRQGLWLRQV FDQ RQO\ EH LQYHVWLJDWHG E\ XVLQJ D SRZHU
V\VWHP VLPXODWRU ZKLFK LV DEOH WR SURGXFH WKH V\VWHP WUDQ
VLHQWV

6RPH RI WKH VLWXDWLRQV ZKLFK UHTXLUH WUDQVLHQW PRGHOV IRU


SURSHU HYDOXDWLRQ DUH

 WUDQVIRUPHU RU FDSDFLWRU LQUXVK


 FW RU FYW WUDQVLHQW

VLJQDOV WKH UHOD\V 5 WR 5 KDG GLUHFWLRQDOLW\ SUREOHPV  FW VWHDG\ VWDWH VDWXUDWLRQ


7KHUH ZDV QR QHHG WR FRQGXFW WUDQVLHQW WHVWV WR YHULI\
WKLV 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG UHSODFHPHQW UHOD\V KDG WR EH
VTXDULQJ
6
HYDOXDWHG ZLWK ERWK VWHDG\ VWDWH DQG WUDQVLHQW ZDYHIRUPV ILOWHU DQG
FLUFXLW
9 FRLQFLGHQFH
WR HQVXUH WKDW WKHUH ZHUH QR SUREOHPV LQ HLWKHU VWDWH PL[LQJ

GHWHFWRU

GW
OHYHO

GHWHFWRU
WULS

6
6LQFH QR YDOLGDWHG WUDQVLHQW PRGHO RI WKH UHOD\V ZDV ,
FLUFXLWV

VTXDULQJ
DYDLODEOH WKH WUDQVLHQW WHVWV ZHUH FDUULHG RXW XVLQJ D UHDO FLUFXLW

WLPH V\VWHP VLPXODWRU DQG WKH DFWXDO UHOD\V

 SUHVHQFH RI KDUPRQLFV
 SUHVHQFH RI WUDQVLHQW GF RIIVHW


 HYROYLQJ IDXOWV LPSHGDQFH IDLUO\ UHVLVWLYH XQWLO WKH 029 E\SDVVHV DW DERXW
 SRZHU V\VWHP VZLQJV DQG G\QDPLFV RI URWDWLQJ PD PV LQWR WKH IDXOW 7KH LQWHJUDWRU RQ WKH EORFN DYHUDJH
FKLQHV SKDVH FRPSDUDWRU GRHV QRW GHYHORS DQ XSZDUG WUHQG XQWLO
 WLPH YDU\LQJ PDFKLQH LPSHGDQFHV IURP VXEWUDQVLHQW PV ZKHQ WKH LPSHGDQFH WUDMHFWRU\ FRPHV LQVLGH WKH PKR
WKURXJK WUDQVLHQW WR VWHDG\ VWDWH  FKDUDFWHULVWLF 7KHUHDIWHU LW UDPSV XS VORZO\ DV WKH PHDV
 RQH OLQH WR JURXQG IDXOWV RQ UHVRQDQW JURXQGHG V\VWHPV XUHG LPSHGDQFH UHPDLQV FORVH WR WKH RSHUDWLQJ ERXQGDU\
 DQG VHULHV FDSDFLWRUV DQG WKHLU SURWHFWLRQ 2QFH WKH E\SDVV FORVHV DW PV DW WKH FXVS LQVLGH WKH FKDU
DFWHULVWLF WKH UDPS EXLOGV XS UDSLGO\ WR LWV XSSHU OHYHO 7KLV
$ *HQHULF 0RGHOV
LV FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK WKH IDFW WKDW WKH LPSHGDQFH KDV QRZ PRYHG
LQWR WKH PLGGOH RI WKH FKDUDFWHULVWLF 7KH RSHUDWLQJ WLPH IRU
)LJXUH  %ORFN 'LDJUDP RI EORFNDYHUDJH SKDVH FRP
WKH SKDVH FRPSDUDWRU LV DURXQG PV EXW WKLV PD\ QRW EH
SDUDWRU
SUHFLVH LI WKH PRGHO LV QRW H[DFW +RZHYHU WKLV KDV SURYLGHG
,I WKH RSHUDWLQJ SULQFLSOH RI WKH PHDVXULQJ HOHPHQW LV VRPH LQVLJKW LQWR ZKDW WKH UHOD\ ZDV GRLQJ RWKHU WKDQ MXVW
NQRZQ WKHQ D JHQHULF PRGHO FDQ EH XVHG > @ )RU LQ VHHLQJ D WULS VLJQDO DW DURXQG PV 7KLV LQVLJKW LQGLFDWHV
VWDQFH LI WKH UHOD\ LV NQRZQ WR EH D PKR SKDVH FRPSDUDWRU WKDW VRPH IRUP RI SRODUL]DWLRQ ZKLFK LQFUHDVHV WKH WUDQVLHQW
W\SH XVLQJ D EORFN DYHUDJH LQWHJUDWLQJ IXQFWLRQ WKHQ D JH UHVLVWLYH UHDFK IRU IRUZDUG IDXOWV VHH )LJXUH  ZRXOG VSHHG
QHULF UHOD\ ZLWK D EORFN GLDJUDP DV VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH  PD\ XS WKH RSHUDWLQJ WLPH RI WKH SKDVH FRPSDUDWRU
EH XVHG 7KH H[DFW GHWDLOV RI DQ\ ILOWHUV RU PL[LQJ FLUFXLW
*HQHULF PRGHOV DUH HDV\ WR VHW XS JLYH FRQVLGHUDEOH LQ
 &<&/( )285,(5 %$6(' ,03('$1&( 5(/$< VLJKW LQWR WKH RSHUDWLRQ RI WKH UHOD\ W\SH EXW PD\ QRW EH VXLW
 DEOH IRU PDUJLQDO FDVHV DQG SUHFLVH WLPLQJ 7KH\ PD\ QRW
; KDYH GHWDLOHG ORJLF SURYLGHG LQ VSHFLILF LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI
,PSHGDQFH ORFL
WKH JHQHULF SULQFLSOH LQ D VSHFLILF UHOD\ 7KLV ORJLF LV RIWHQ
ZLWK FRPSHQVDWLRQ ZLWK 029
DSSOLHG WR PDNH VSHFLILF IXQFWLRQV LQWHUDFW ZLWK RWKHU IXQF
PKR FKDUDFWHULVWLF
 WLRQV WR PDNH D SURWHFWLRQ V\VWHP %HFDXVH RI WKLV OLPLWD
PD[LPXP WRUTXH OLQH
WLRQ JHQHULF PRGHOV ILQG EHVW XVH IRU FKHFNLQJ VSHFLILF IXQF

WLRQV UDWKHU WKDQ FRPSOHWH V\VWHPV ZKLFK DUH PDGH XS RI
PV
QXPHURXV LQWHUDFWLQJ IXQFWLRQV $OVR EHFDXVH RI WKLV OLPL
5 WDWLRQ WKH\ DUH OHVV XVHIXO WKDQ GHWDLOHG PRGHOV IRU LQYHVWL

    JDWLQJ XQH[SHFWHG UHOD\ RSHUDWLRQV ZKHUH PRGHO VSHFLILF
PV GHWDLOV DUH RIWHQ LPSRUWDQW

%/2&. $9(5$*( ,17(*5$725 287387


% 'HWDLOHG 0RGHOV

'HWDLOHG PRGHOV SUHVHUYH DOO RI WKH DGYDQWDJHV RI EHLQJ


/HYHO GHWHFWRU WULS OHYHO
DEOH WR H[DPLQH WKH LQWHUQDO RSHUDWLRQ RI DQ\ IXQFWLRQ 7KH
GHWDLOHG PRGHOV DUH PRUH XVHIXO WKDQ JHQHULF PRGHOV IRU
FKHFNLQJ WKH SHUIRUPDQFH RI FRPSOHWH V\VWHPV EHFDXVH DOO
ORJLF LV UHSUHVHQWHG 8QIRUWXQDWHO\ GHWDLOHG PRGHOV DUH QRW
     
WLPH V DV UHDGLO\ DYDLODEOH DV WKH JHQHULF PRGHOV EHFDXVH WKH\ PD\
LQFOXGH WUDGH VHFUHWV RI WKH PDQXIDFWXUHUV 7KH PDQXIDFWXU
HOHPHQWV PD\ QRW EH QHFHVVDU\ DV ORQJ DV WKH SKDVRU UHOD HUV PD\ EH SUHSDUHG WR SURYLGH VXFK PRGHOV DV EODFN ER[HV
WLRQVKLSV LQ 6 DQG 6 DUH FRUUHFW DW IXQGDPHQWDO IUHTXHQF\ ZLWK VSHFLILF IL[HG LQWHUIDFHV HJ LQ 0$7/$%

,I RQ WKH RWKHU KDQG WKH UHOD\ RSHUDWHV RQ D RQH F\FOH 'LV $ PDQXIDFWXUHU LV LQ D SRVLWLRQ WR GHVLJQ D IDLUO\ DFFXUDWH
FUHWH )RXULHU 7UDQVIRUP DQG GLYLGHV 9 E\ , WR JHW D WUDQVLHQW PRGHO SDUWLFXODUO\ IRU WKH QHZ GLJLWDO UHOD\V $V H[SODLQHG
YDOXH RI = WKHQ WKLV IXQFWLRQ FDQ EH VHW XS DV DQ HTXDWLRQ LQ 6HFWLRQ 9 WKH VRIWZDUH PRGHO PD\ SUHFHGH WKH KDUGZDUH
)LJXUH  VKRZV WKH UHVXOWV IRU WKHVH WZR UHOD\ W\SHV WDNHQ GHVLJQ 7KH DQDORJXH IURQW HQG LV WKH RQO\ SDUW ZKLFK UH
IURP D VHULHV FRPSHQVDWLRQ VWXG\ >@ 7KH OLQH ZKLFK WKH TXLUHV WUDQVODWLRQ LQWR VRIWZDUH IRUP DOWKRXJK WKHUH PD\ EH
UHOD\ LV SURWHFWLQJ LV PLGFRPSHQVDWHG DQG WKH IDXOW LV MXVW VRPH WLPLQJ DQG QXPHULFDO LVVXHV ZLWK UHJDUG WR FRPSOHWLRQ
EH\RQG WKH FRPSHQVDWLRQ 7KH FKDUDFWHULVWLF RI WKH VHOI RI VSHFLILF FDOFXODWLRQV LQ WKH GLJLWDO KDUGZDUH VHH 6HFWLRQ
SRODUL]HG PKR UHOD\ DQG WKH WUDMHFWRU\ RI WKH WUDQVLHQW YDOXHV ,9&
RI = DUH VKRZQ RQ WKH LPSHGDQFH SODQH DW WKH WRS RI )LJXUH :KHUH WKH DOJRULWKPV DQG KDUGZDUH DUH NQRZQ LQ GHWDLO
 029 DFWLRQ DFURVV WKH VHULHV FDSDFLWRU PDNHV WKH PHDV YHU\ SUHFLVH SHUIRUPDQFH FDQ EH DFKLHYHG LQ WKH PRGHO 5HI
XUHG )LJXUH  7UDQVLHQW = WUDMHFWRU\ DQG EORFN DYHU HUHQFH >@ SUHVHQWV D FRPSDULVRQ RI WKH WUDMHFWRULHV RI WKH
DJH UHVSRQVH WUDQVLHQW YDOXHV RI = FDOFXODWHG E\ D UHOD\ DQG FDOFXODWHG E\
WKH PRGHO RI WKH VDPH UHOD\ 7KH PRGHO ZDV D )RUWUDQ VXE


URXWLQH UXQQLQJ LQ DQ (073 (07'&  3UHFLVH WLPLQJ LV LQ WKH UHDO ZRUOG 7KLV FRQVWUDLQW LV QRW DOZD\V HDV\ WR
DYDLODEOH IURP VXFK D PRGHO LI UHTXLUHG IRU XVH LQ RIIOLQH PHHW
VWXGLHV LQYROYLQJ DFFXUDWH PRGHOV RI RWKHU KLJK VSHHG FRQ
7KH QXPEHUV SURYLGHG E\ DQDORJXHWRGLJLWDO DFTXLVLWLRQ
WUROOHUV WR H[DPLQH DQ\ LQWHUDFWLYH HIIHFWV 7KH DOWHUQDWLYH WR
V\VWHPV DUH LQWHJHUV 'LJLWDO SURFHVVLQJ LQVLGH WKH UHOD\
VXFK DQ RIIOLQH VWXG\ ZRXOG EH WR KDYH WKH DFWXDO UHOD\ DQG
FRXOG KRZHYHU EH HLWKHU LQ LQWHJHU RU IORDWLQJ SRLQW IRUP
RWKHU FRQWUROOHUV OLQNHG WR D UHDO WLPH VLPXODWRU 7KLV LV QRW
7KH PDLQ VRXUFH RI HUURU KRZHYHU LV WKH TXDQWL]LQJ RI QXP
DQ RSWLRQ DYDLODEOH WR PRVW UHOD\ HQJLQHHUV
EHUV GXH WR WKH UHVROXWLRQ RI WKH DFTXLVLWLRQ V\VWHP 7KH
SURFHVVLQJ RI QXPEHUV LQ WKH LQWHJHU IRUP FRXOG LQWURGXFH
& +DUGZDUH PRGHOOLQJ VXEVWDQWLDO HUURUV LI WKH ELWVL]H RI WKH ZRUG LV VPDOO 3URF
7KH DOJRULWKPV LQ D GLJLWDO UHOD\ FDQ EH WUDQVODWHG IURP HVVLQJ LQ WKH IORDWLQJSRLQW IRUPDW KDV D OLPLWHG LPSDFW RQ
PDFKLQH FRGH LQWR ZKDWHYHU ODQJXDJH LV EHLQJ XVHG LQ WKH WKH RYHUDOO DFFXUDF\
PRGHO $V H[SODLQHG SUHYLRXVO\ PRGHOLQJ WKH DQDORJXH SDUWV
RI DQ\ UHOD\ UHTXLUHV FDUH DOWKRXJK WKH IURQW HQG RI GLJLWDO 9 ,1)250$7,21 5(48,5(' )25 02'(/6
UHOD\V FDQ EH GHDOW ZLWK LQ D IDLUO\ VWUDLJKWIRUZDUG PDQQHU LQ
7KH GHYHORSPHQW RI D VRIWZDUH PRGHO LV UHODWLYHO\ VLPSOH
DOO EXW D IHZ FDVHV ZKHUH WKH DX[LOLDU\ WUDQVGXFHUV PD\ VDWX
IRU GLJLWDO UHOD\V SURYLGHG VXIILFLHQW LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ WKH DOJR
UDWH
ULWKPV LV DYDLODEOH )RU VWDWLF DQG HOHFWURPHFKDQLFDO UHOD\V
7KHUH DUH LVVXHV RI WLPLQJ G\QDPLF UDQJH DQG QXPEHU RI DQG LQGHHG IRU WKH DQDORJXH VHFWLRQV RI GLJLWDO UHOD\V WKH
ELWV LQ GLJLWDO KDUGZDUH ZKLFK VKRXOG EH H[DPLQHG > @ GHWDLOHG PRGHOLQJ SUREOHP LV QRQWULYLDO (OHFWURPHFKDQLFDO
UHOD\V DUH SDUWLFXODUO\ GLIILFXOW WR PRGHO EHFDXVH GHWDLOHG
&XUUHQW DQG YROWDJH DFTXLVLWLRQ V\VWHP FKDUDFWHULVWLFV
NQRZOHGJH RI WKH PHFKDQLFDO GHVLJQ LV QHHGHG ,Q VXFK D
$ QXPEHU RI FKDUDFWHULVWLFV SHUWDLQLQJ WR WKH DQDORJXH DF FDVH LW PLJKW EH LPSUDFWLFDO WR GHYHORS D VXIILFLHQWO\ GH
TXLVLWLRQ V\VWHP DUH LPSRUWDQW ZKHQ WU\LQJ WR VHW XS D PRGHO WDLOHG PRGHO
IRU D UHOD\ 7KH\ DUH
$V D JHQHUDO UXOH WR EH DEOH WR GHYHORS WKH PRGHO RI D
x WKH PD[LPXP YDOXH RI PHDVXUDEOH LQVWDQWDQHRXV YROWDJH GLJLWDO UHOD\ WKH PDQXIDFWXUHU VKRXOG SURYLGH LQIRUPDWLRQ
DQG FXUUHQW DQG FRQFHUQLQJ WKH EDVLF SULQFLSOHV ZKLFK DUH XVHG E\ WKH UHOD\
ZKLOH SURFHVVLQJ GDWD JHQHUDWHG E\ DFTXLULQJ WKH VLJQDOV DQG
x WKH OHDVW YDOXH RI WKH PHDVXUDEOH LQVWDQWDQHRXV YROWDJH
PDNLQJ GHFLVLRQV
DQG FXUUHQW RIWHQ DOVR FDOOHG WKH UHVROXWLRQ RI WKH PHDV
XULQJ V\VWHP 0RVW GHVLJQV RI PRGHUQ UHOD\V DUH EDVHG RQ WKH VLPXODWLRQ
RI WKH UHOD\V XVLQJ SDFNDJHV OLNH 0$7/$% 7KHVH VLPXOD
7KH UDWLR RI WKH DERYH WZR TXDQWLWLHV GHWHUPLQHV WKH G\QDPLF WLRQ WRROV DUH XVHG E\ WKH PDQXIDFWXUHU DW WKH GHYHORSPHQW
UDQJH RI WKH UHOD\ ZLWK UHVSHFW WR YROWDJHV DQG FXUUHQWV OHYHO WR DVVHVV WKH UHOLDELOLW\ DQG VRXQGQHVV RI WKH DOJRULWKPV
7KHUH H[LVW VLWXDWLRQV ZKHUH D UHOD\
V VLPXODWLRQ FRXOG EH XVLQJ YROWDJH DQG FXUUHQW ZDYHIRUPV RI IDXOWV VLPXODWHG RQ
DIIHFWHG E\ DQ LPSURSHU VLPXODWLRQ RI WKH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI SURJUDPV OLNH DQ (073 2QFH WKDW VWHS LQ WKH GHYHORSPHQW
WKH GDWD DFTXLVLWLRQ V\VWHP 7ZR H[DPSOHV DUH DV IROORZV SURFHVV KDV WXUQHG RXW VXFFHVVIXOO\ WKH VLPXODWLRQ VRIWZDUH
LV FRQYHUWHG WR WKH PDFKLQH ODQJXDJH RI WKH UHOD\
V PLFUR
 7KH PRGHO LV XVHG LQ D VWXG\ LQ ZKLFK WKH PD[LPXP SURFHVVRU ,I VXFK D SURFHGXUH KDV EHHQ IROORZHG DQG LW LV
YDOXH RI IDXOW FXUUHQW LV PRUH WKDQ WKH PD[LPXP FXUUHQW PRVW OLNHO\ WR EH WKH FDVH LQ PRGHUQ GHVLJQV WKH UHOD\ HTXD
ZKLFK FDQ EH PHDVXUHG E\ WKH GDWD DFTXLVLWLRQ V\VWHP WLRQV LQ WKH VLPXODWLRQ SDFNDJH FRQVWLWXWH WKH VRIWZDUH PRGHO
DQG WKH VDWXUDWLRQ RI WKLV V\VWHP LV QRW PRGHOOHG RI WKH UHOD\ 7KH PDQXIDFWXUHU FRXOG PDNH VXFK D PRGHO
 7KH PRGHO LV XVHG WR LPSOHPHQW WKUHVKROGV ZKLFK DUH DYDLODEOH IRU XVH E\ WKH HQJLQHHUV RI WKH XWLOLWLHV DQG FRQVXOW
EHORZ WKH FRPELQHG DFFXUDF\ RI WKH DQDORJXH DFTXLVL DQWV 6XFK D PRGHO ZLOO RQO\ DOORZ HYDOXDWLRQ RI WKH IXQF
WLRQ V\VWHP DQG WKH DQDORJXHWRGLJLWDO FRQYHUWHUV $Q WLRQDOLW\ RI WKH SURWHFWLRQ DOJRULWKPV LQ GLIIHUHQW IDXOW VLWXD

H[DPSOH RI WKLV VLWXDWLRQ LV WKH LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI WKH WLRQV IRU GLIIHUHQW QHWZRUNV (YDOXDWLRQ RI WKH PRGHO LV QRW D
DQWLPRWRULQJ IXQFWLRQ LQ D JHQHUDWRU LQ ZKLFK WKH SURSHU WHVW IRU WHVWLQJ WKH UHOD\ LWVHOI )RU LQVWDQFH D IDXOW\
SRZHU WKUHVKROGV XVHG DUH H[FHHGLQJO\ ORZ FKLS LQ WKH UHOD\ ZLOO QRW EH GHWHFWHG ZKHQ HYDOXDWLQJ WKH
PRGHO 1RU ZLOO DQ\ UHDO WLPH HIIHFWV GXH WR WKH WLPH WKH
$ UHOD\ PRGHO PD\ WKHUHIRUH SHUIRUP GLIIHUHQWO\ WKDQ WKH KDUGZDUH QHHGV WR UXQ WKH FRGHG DOJRULWKPV FRPH WR OLJKW
UHDO UHOD\ LI WKH HUURUV QRQOLQHDULWLHV DQG G\QDPLF UDQJH
LVVXHV DUH QRW GHDOW ZLWK SURSHUO\ 7R PRGHO D UHOD\ SURSHUO\ DOO WKH HOHPHQWV RU LQJUHGLHQWV
ZKLFK GHWHUPLQH WKH G\QDPLFV RI WKH UHOD\ LQ WKH WUDQVLHQW
1XPEHUV UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ LVVXH VWDWH KDYH WR EH SURSHUO\ VLPXODWHG 7KHUHIRUH DOO WKH LQ
,GHDOO\ QXPEHUV DW GLIIHUHQW VWDJHV RI SURFHVVLQJ ERWK IRUPDWLRQ UHTXLUHG WR DOORZ DQ HQJLQHHU WR PRGHO WKHVH HOH
KDUGZDUH DQG VRIWZDUH VKRXOG EH UHSUHVHQWHG LQ D PRGHO DV PHQWV VKRXOG EH DYDLODEOH IURP WKH PDQXIDFWXUHU


$ &RQYHQWLRQDO VRXUFHV RI LQIRUPDWLRQ )RU PRVW GLJLWDO UHOD\V DW SUHVHQW LQ VHUYLFH ERWK UDWHV DUH
&RQYHQWLRQDO VRXUFHV RI LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ WKH WHFKQRORJ\ RI WKH VDPH 7KLV PHDQV WKDW ZH HQG XS ZLWK D VLQJOH VDPSOLQJ
GLJLWDO UHOD\V FRQVLVW RI WKH IROORZLQJ GRFXPHQWV IUHTXHQF\ DQG D VLQJOH DQDORJXH DQWLDOLDVLQJ ILOWHU

 3DSHUV LQ JHQHUDO WH[WERRNV RQ UHOD\LQJ DQG GLJLWDO UH  3KDVRU HVWLPDWLRQ DOJRULWKP
OD\V DQG ,((( VSHFLDO SXEOLFDWLRQV >  @ 0RVW
0RVW GLJLWDO UHOD\V HVWLPDWH DPSOLWXGHV DQG SKDVH DQJOHV
UHOD\LQJ SULQFLSOHV EHORQJ WR WKH SXEOLF GRPDLQ DQG LQ
RI SKDVRUV XVLQJ GLJLWDO ILOWHUV
PRVW LQGXVWULDO SURGXFWV VRFDOOHG SURSULHWDU\ LQIRUPD
WLRQ LV XVXDOO\ PLQLPDO $OJRULWKPV IRU HVWLPDWLQJ SKDVRUV LV RQH RI WKH PRVW
GRFXPHQWHG WRSLFV LQ WKH ILHOG RI GLJLWDO SURWHFWLRQ > @
 3DSHUV ZULWWHQ E\ WKH GHVLJQHUV RI UHOD\V RU PDQXIDFWXU
,Q VSLWH RI WKH ZLGH UDQJH RI SRWHQWLDO FDQGLGDWHV IRU WKDW
HUV UHSUHVHQWDWLYHV 7KH TXDOLW\ DQG WKH DPRXQW RI LQ
SXUSRVH D OLPLWHG QXPEHU RI DOJRULWKPV KDYH EHHQ XVHG LQ
IRUPDWLRQ IRXQG LQ WKHVH SDSHUV GHSHQGV YHU\ PXFK
FRPPHUFLDO DSSOLFDWLRQV 7KH IXOOF\FOH )RXULHU ILOWHU DQG
XSRQ WKH ZLOO RI WKH PDQXIDFWXUHU WR UHYHDO RU WR KLGH WKH
WKH VRFDOOHG &RVLQH ILOWHU DUH WKH PRVW FRPPRQ DQG KDYH
EDVLF IDFWV RI UHOD\V >@
EHFRPH GHIDFWR VWDQGDUGV LQ WKH LQGXVWU\ >@
 3DWHQWV WDNHQ RXW E\ WKH PDQXIDFWXUHU LI DQ\ 7KLV LV
*LYHQ WKH H[WHQVLYH DPRXQW RI GRFXPHQWDWLRQ DYDLODEOH WR
YHU\ RIWHQ WKH PRVW GHWDLOHG VRXUFH RI LQIRUPDWLRQ
WKH UHOD\ HQJLQHHU RQ WKH ILOWHULQJ DOJRULWKPV D PDQXIDF
 7KH UHOD\ PDQXDOV SXEOLVKHG E\ WKH PDQXIDFWXUHU 0RVW WXUHU ZRXOG RQO\ KDYH WR SRLQW WR WKH ILOWHULQJ V\VWHP XVHG E\
RI WKH WLPH WKH ORJLF GLDJUDP RI D SURWHFWLRQ VFKHPH LV LWV QDPH )RU LQVWDQFH FKDUDFWHUL]LQJ D ILOWHU DV D IXOOF\FOH
DYDLODEOH LQ WKHVH PDQXDOV UHFXUVLYH )RXULHU ILOWHU WHOOV DOO DERXW WKH ILOWHU
V QDWXUH DQG
UHFRQVWUXFWLRQ IRU D PRGHO LV VWUDLJKWIRUZDUG
 'LUHFW FRQWDFWV ZLWK WKH PDQXIDFWXUHU

 $GGLWLRQDO IXQFWLRQV

% 8VHIXO LQIRUPDWLRQ 0RVW PRGHUQ GLJLWDO OLQH UHOD\V XVH D WHFKQLTXH RI IUH
,QIRUPDWLRQ RQ WKH IROORZLQJ WRSLFV ZLOO EH XVHIXO ZKHQ TXHQF\ WUDFNLQJ WKH SXUSRVH RI ZKLFK LV WR UHQGHU WKH UHOD\
WU\LQJ WR GHYHORS WKH PRGHO RI D UHOD\ LQVHQVLWLYH WR IUHTXHQF\ H[FXUVLRQV ,Q OLQH UHOD\LQJ IUH
TXHQF\ WUDFNLQJ KDV D GLUHFW LPSDFW RQ WKH PHPRU\ YROWDJH
 %DVLF FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI WKH GLJLWDO V\VWHP XVHG LQ WKH SRODUL]DWLRQ RI D PKR HOHPHQW ,Q PRVW FDVHV WKH
IUHTXHQF\ WUDFNLQJ LV DFKLHYHG ZLWK D SKDVH ORFNHG ORRS FLU
$ QXPEHU RI FKDUDFWHULVWLFV DUH FRPPRQ DOWKRXJK QRW
FXLW LPSOHPHQWHG LQ DQDORJXH KDUGZDUH
QHFHVVDULO\ LGHQWLFDO WR DOO GLJLWDO V\VWHPV 7KH IROORZLQJ
LWHPV DUH GHVFULEHG LQ WKH PDQXIDFWXUHU
V GDWD VKHHW $ QXPEHU RI DGGLWLRQDO IXQFWLRQV OLNH GLUHFWLRQDO HOH
PHQWV GHWHFWLRQ RI SRZHUVZLQJ FRPSXWDWLRQ RI VHTXHQFH
QDWXUH DQG FXWRII IUHTXHQF\ RI WKH DQWLDOLDVLQJ ILOWHU
TXDQWLWLHV SKDVH VHOHFWLRQ ORJLF HWF ZRXOG QRUPDOO\ QHHG WR
,GHDOO\ WKH DQWLDOLDVLQJ ILOWHU VKRXOG EH GHILQHG E\ LWV EH PRGHOOHG 7KH VDPH SULQFLSOHV DSSO\ WR WKHVH IXQFWLRQV
WUDQVIHU IXQFWLRQ ,I LW EHORQJV WR D ZHOOGRFXPHQWHG FDWH EDVLF GHVFULSWLRQ RI WKHLU DOJRULWKPV VKRXOG EH REWDLQHG
JRU\ RI ILOWHUV LW FRXOG EH GHILQHG LQ JHQHUDO WHUPV IRU LQ
$OJRULWKPV EDVHG RQ VRPHWKLQJ RWKHU WKDQ SKDVRUV
VWDQFH D IRXUWK RUGHU %XWWHUZRUWK ILOWHU ZLWK D FXWRII IUH
TXHQF\ RI  +] ,I WKH HOHFWURQLF VFKHPDWLF RI WKH ILOWHU $OWKRXJK WKH XVH RI SKDVRU HYDOXDWLRQ KDV EHFRPH DQ DO
DQG SDUDPHWHUV RI WKH FRPSRQHQWV DUH DYDLODEOH LWV WUDQVIHU
IXQFWLRQ FDQ EH FRPSXWHG E\ DQDO\]LQJ WKH GLDJUDP

SULPDU\ VDPSOLQJ UDWH DQG UHOD\


V VDPSOLQJ UDWH

0DQ\ RI WKH QHZHVW JHQHUDWLRQ RI UHOD\V XVH DQ RYHU


VDPSOLQJ WHFKQLTXH 7KH KLJK VDPSOLQJ UDWH LV XVHG IRU RV
FLOORJUDSK\ $Q DQDORJXH DQWLDOLDVLQJ ILOWHU SUHFHGHV WKH
VDPSOLQJ RI VLJQDOV 7KH GDWD XVHG E\ WKH UHOD\ LQ LWV DOJR
ULWKPV LV REWDLQHG DIWHU GHFLPDWLRQ RI WKH GDWD DFTXLUHG DW
KLJK VDPSOLQJ IUHTXHQF\ 7KH GHFLPDWLRQ SURFHVV LQFOXGHV D
VHFRQG GLJLWDO DQWLDOLDVLQJ ILOWHU LPSOHPHQWHG LQ VRIWZDUH
7KH GLJLWDO WUDQVIHU IXQFWLRQ RI WKLV DQWLDOLDVLQJ ILOWHU LV DOVR
QHHGHG 7KH KLJK VDPSOLQJ UDWH ZRXOG W\SLFDOO\ EH  VDP
SOHV SHU F\FOH DQG WKH UHOD\ DOJRULWKP PLJKW XVH  RU 
VDPSOHV SHU F\FOH

)LJXUH  'HYHORSPHQW DQG YDOLGDWLRQ RI UHOD\ PRGHOV


PRVW VWDQGDUG SUDFWLFH LQ OLQH UHOD\V RWKHU DOJRULWKPV H[LVW %\ XVLQJ UHOD\ WUDQVLHQW PRGHOV WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ HQJLQHHU
FDQ GR ILUVW FXW VHOHFWLRQ RI GLIIHUHQW W\SHV RI UHOD\V DV FDQ
)RU H[DPSOH VRPH DOJRULWKPV DUH EDVHG RQ WKH GLJLWDO
GLGDWHV IRU IXOO WUDQVLHQW WHVWV XVLQJ WKH DFWXDO UHOD\ 7\SLFDO
VLPXODWLRQ RI WKH GLIIHUHQWLDO HTXDWLRQ UHSUHVHQWLQJ D OLQH
TXHVWLRQV ZKLFK PLJKW EH DGGUHVVHG DUH DV IROORZV 'R ZH
ZKHQ RWKHUV DUH EDVHG RQ WKH GLJLWDO VLPXODWLRQ >@ RI DQ
QHHG PHPRU\ SRODUL]DWLRQ RU FURVV SRODUL]DWLRQ RU D ELW RI
HOHFWURPHFKDQLFDO F\OLQGHU XQLW SHUIRUPLQJ WKH WDVN RI SKDVH
ERWK" ,V D SKDVH FRPSDUDWRU EHWWHU WKDQ DQ DPSOLWXGH FRP
FRPSDULVRQ
SDUDWRU DOJRULWKP" :LOO WKH SRODUL]DWLRQ EH VXLWDEOH LQ D VH
:KDWHYHU WKH WHFKQLTXH XVHG WKH PRGHO ZLOO KDYH WR UH ULHV FRPSHQVDWLRQ DSSOLFDWLRQ" +RZ FORVH GRHV WKH UHOD\
SURGXFH WKH SURSHU G\QDPLFV LQ RUGHU WR H[KLELW WKH VDPH FRPH WR RSHUDWLQJ IRU D IDXOW EHKLQG LWV EXVEDU RU MXVW EH\RQG
RXWSXWV GXULQJ WUDQVLHQW VWDWH WKH UHPRWH EXVEDU" +RZ GRHV WKH PHDVXULQJ WHFKQLTXH UH
VSRQG WR D VXGGHQ SKDVH UHYHUVDO RI FXUUHQW RU YROWDJH DV D
9, 02'(/ 9$/,'$7,21
FLUFXLW EUHDNHU RSHQV RU DQ 029 E\SDVVHV" 2QFH VXFK LVVXHV
$V ZLWK DQ\ RWKHU PRGHO WR EH XVHG LQ FRPSXWHU VLPXOD KDYH EHHQ UHVROYHG WKH UHOD\ HQJLQHHU FDQ SURFHHG WR PRUH
WLRQV WKH PRGHO QHHGV WR EH SURYHG E\ FRPSDULVRQ ZLWK UHDO GHWDLOHG WHVWLQJ RI DFWXDO UHOD\V XVLQJ D VLPXODWRU RU WHVW VHW
OLIH SHUIRUPDQFH RI WKH UHOD\ 7KLV KDV EHFRPH UHODWLYHO\ 2IIOLQH VLPXODWLRQV DUH OHVV H[SHQVLYH WKDQ RQOLQH UHDO WLPH
VLPSOH WR DFKLHYH ZLWK WKH ZLGHVSUHDG DYDLODELOLW\ RI SOD\ WHVWLQJ DQG VKRXOG EH XVHG WR VHWWOH WKH EURDGHU LVVXHV VXFK
EDFN UHOD\ WHVW VHWV DQG UHDO WLPH VLPXODWRUV (QJLQHHUV FDQ DV WKRVH PHQWLRQHG DERYH OHDYLQJ RQO\ WKH GHWDLOHG SHUIRUP
QRZ LQSXW LGHQWLFDO ZDYHIRUPV WR ERWK WKH UHOD\ DQG WKH DQFH RI D SDUWLFXODU UHOD\ IRU RQOLQH WHVWLQJ
PRGHO DQG FRPSDUH SHUIRUPDQFH LQ RUGHU WR YDOLGDWH WKH
,Q ZKDWHYHU PRGH WKH PRGHOV DUH XVHG WKH\ ZLOO GLVWLQ
PRGHO
JXLVK EHWZHHQ LQKHUHQWO\ JRRG RU LQKHUHQWO\ EDG SHUIRUP
DQFH 7KH PRGHO DOORZV WKH HQJLQHHU WR H[DPLQH WKH RXWSXWV
$ 9DOLGDWLRQ RI 3KDVRU 0RGHOV IURP YDULRXV LQWHUPHGLDWH SRLQWV ZLWKLQ WKH UHOD\ DQG QRW
$OWKRXJK SKDVRU PRGHOV DUH UHODWLYHO\ VLPSOH FRPSDUHG WR MXVW DW LWV RXWSXW WHUPLQDOV 6HH )LJXUH   $V VXFK LW KDV
IXOO WUDQVLHQW PRGHOV RI UHOD\V WKH YHULILFDWLRQ RI WKH PRGHOV FRQVLGHUDEOH WUDLQLQJ EHQHILWV LQ XQGHUVWDQGLQJ WKH RSHUDWLRQ
IRU UHDVRQDEOH FRQILGHQFH OHYHO UHTXLUHV D FHUWDLQ DPRXQW RI RI WKH UHOD\ DQG LW IXUWKHU DOORZV PDUJLQV RI RSHUDWLRQ WR EH
FDUH DQG HIIRUW )LJXUH  VKRZV D SURFHVV ZKLFK KDV EHHQ GH HYDOXDWHG
YHORSHG E\ D 8WLOLW\ IRU WKH GHYHORSPHQW DQG YHULILFDWLRQ RI 6LJQLILFDQW VDYLQJV LQ WURXEOHVKRRWLQJ FRVWV DUH SUHVHQWO\
UHOD\ PRGHOV ,W LQYROYHV WKH FRPSDULVRQ RI WKH UHVXOWV IURP EHLQJ UHDOL]HG E\ XWLOLWLHV XVLQJ VRIWZDUH PRGHOV WR DQDO\]H
YDULRXV VRXUFHV LQFOXGLQJ WKH UHVXOWV IURP WKH HTXLSPHQW XQH[SHFWHG UHOD\ EHKDYLRU ,QVWHDG RI GLVSDWFKLQJ D WHFKQL
XQGHU WHVW 5HVXOW $  DQG UHVXOWV IURP UHVSRQVH RI WKH EDVLF FLDQ RU HQJLQHHU ZLWK WHVW HTXLSPHQW WR SHUIRUP WLPH FRQ
RSHUDWLQJ HTXDWLRQV DV FRPSXWHG IURP L WKH VLJQDOV DSSOLHG VXPLQJ GLDJQRVWLF WHVWLQJ DIWHU DQ XQH[SHFWHG UHOD\ EHKDYLRU
WR WKH UHOD\ 5HVXOW %  LL WKH IXQGDPHQWDO IUHTXHQF\ SKDVRUV LV LGHQWLILHG FXUUHQW DQG YROWDJH SKDVRU GDWD IURP WKH HYHQW
REWDLQHG IURP GLJLWDO VLPXODWLRQ 5HVXOW &  LLL WKH IXQGD LV UHWULHYHG YLD D FRPPXQLFDWLRQ OLQN 7KH VRXUFH RI WKHVH
PHQWDO IUHTXHQF\ SKDVRUV REWDLQHG IURP D IXQGDPHQWDO IUH SKDVRU YDOXHV UDQJHV IURP GLJLWDO GLVWXUEDQFH UHFRUGHUV
TXHQF\ IDXOW SURJUDP 5HVXOW '  7KLV DUUDQJHPHQW KDV WKH ZKLFK SURYLGH GDWD XVLQJ YHU\ KLJK VDPSOLQJ UDWHV WR WKH
IHDWXUH RI FURVVFKHFNLQJ WKH YDULRXV VRXUFHV RI GDWD DQG IXQGDPHQWDO IUHTXHQF\ FXUUHQW DQG YROWDJH SKDVRU VLJQDOV
JLYHV FUHGHQFH WR UHVXOWV IURP D VLPSOH IDXOW SURJUDP ZKLFK UHFRUGHG E\ WKH SURWHFWLYH UHOD\V $IWHU WKH SKDVRU GDWD KDV
FDQ EH XVHG IRU TXLFN DVVHVVPHQWV WR ]HURLQ RQ FULWLFDO FDVHV EHHQ GRZQORDGHG IURP WKH VXEVWDWLRQ WKH YDOXHV DUH VXEVH
TXHQWO\ DSSOLHG WR WKH UHOD\V VRIWZDUH PRGHO WR FRQILUP RU
% 9DOLGDWLRQ RI WUDQVLHQW PRGHOV UHIXWH WKH RSHUDWLRQ LQ TXHVWLRQ

7KH WUDQVLHQW PRGHO ZLOO HLWKHU EH DYDLODEOH IURP D ,I WKH UHVXOW RI WKH VRIWZDUH PRGHO HYDOXDWLRQ RI WKH
PDQXIDFWXUHU RU ZLOO LQYROYH FRQVLGHUDEOH PRGHOLQJ HIIRUW HYHQW DJUHHV ZLWK WKH DFWXDO EHKDYLRU RI WKH UHOD\ WKH IRFXV
IURP WKH UHOD\ HQJLQHHU 2QFH DFTXLUHG LW PXVW EH YDOLGDWHG RI WKH LQYHVWLJDWLRQ VKLIWV WR FRQILUPLQJ WKH DSSURSULDWHQHVV
DV LQ 6HFWLRQ 9,$ E\ DSSO\LQJ LGHQWLFDO WUDQVLHQW ZDYHIRUPV RI WKH UHOD\ DSSOLFDWLRQ 6KRXOG WKH VRIWZDUH PRGHO DQDO\
WR ERWK WKH UHOD\ PRGHO DQG WKH UHOD\ DQG FRPSDULQJ UHVXOWV VLV FRQWUDGLFW WKH DFWXDO RSHUDWLRQ RI WKH UHOD\ GLDJQRVWLF
>@  WHVWLQJ RI WKH UHOD\ RU UHOD\ UHSODFHPHQW LV SHUIRUPHG ZLWK
JUHDWHU FHUWDLQW\ WKDW WKH UHOD\ LV IDXOW\ DQG QRW PLVDSSOLHG

9,, 86(6 2) 02'(/6


,Q 6HFWLRQ ,,, LW LV VKRZQ WKDW SKDVRU PRGHOV DUH XVHG LQ 9,,, )8785( 86(6 2) 02'(/6
FRPPHUFLDOO\ DYDLODEOH VRIWZDUH SDFNDJHV IRU FKRRVLQJ DS :LWK WKH JURZLQJ XVH RI HOHFWURPDJQHWLF WUDQVLHQWV SUR
SURSULDWH VHWWLQJV IRU WKH VWHDG\ VWDWH RSHUDWLRQ RI RYHUFXU JUDPV IRU V\VWHP VWXGLHV WKHUH LV VRPHWLPHV D QHHG WR LQ
UHQW UHOD\V DQG GLVWDQFH UHOD\V 7KLV LV SUHVHQWO\ WKH PRVW FOXGH WUDQVLHQW UHOD\ PRGHOV JHQHULF RU VSHFLILF LQ WKH VWXG
IDPLOLDU XVH RI UHOD\ PRGHOV LHV 6\VWHPV HQJLQHHUV DUH LQWHUHVWHG LQ WKH LQWHUDFWLRQ EH
WZHHQ WKH V\VWHP DQG LWV FRQWURO DSSDUDWXV WKH UHOD\ LV RQH


VXFK FRQWUROOHU DQG UHOD\ HQJLQHHUV QHHG WR ORRN EH\RQG WKH ,((( 7UDQV RQ 3RZHU $SSDUDWXV DQG 6\VWHPV 9RO 3$6
UHVSRQVH RI WKH ILUVW UHOD\ RSHUDWLRQ 7KH EHKDYLRU RI FRQWURO  1R   SS 
DSSDUDWXV IRU )$&76 GHYLFHV RU RWKHU IDVW DFWLQJ FRQWUROOHUV
 76 6LGKX 0 +IXGD DQG 06 6DFKGHY *HQHUDWLQJ
LV LQIOXHQFHG E\ WKH WLPLQJ RI IDXOW FOHDULQJ DQG ZKHUH DS
5HOD\ 0RGHOV IRU 3URWHFWLRQ 6WXGLHV ,((( &RPSXWHU $S
SURSULDWH UHFORVLQJ DQG VXFK HYHQWV PXVW EH SURSHUO\ PRG
SOLFDWLRQV LQ 3RZHU 9RO  1R  2FW  SS 
HOHG LQ WKH VWXG\ 7KHUH LV OLWWOH SRLQW LQ KDYLQJ DQ DFFXUDWH
PRGHO IRU WKH )$&76 FRQWUROOHU ZLWKRXW DQ HTXDOO\ JRRG  ,((( &RPPLWWHH 5HSRUW 5HOD\ 3HUIRUPDQFH 7HVWLQJ
PRGHO RI WKH UHOD\ UHFORVHU DQG EUHDNHU ,Q DGGLWLRQ ZLWK ,((( 6SHFLDO 3XEOLFDWLRQ 1R  73   SS 
RSHUDWLQJ PDUJLQV EHLQJ FXW WR WKH PLQLPXP ZH DUH VHHLQJ
 - % 0RRQH\ ' +DX ) 3OXPSWUH DQG & +HQYLOOH
PRUH GRZQVWUHDP HIIHFWV RI V\VWHP GLVWXUEDQFHV ZKLFK
&RPSXWHU 0RGHOV 6LPSOLI\ 5HOD\ $SSOLFDWLRQ 6WXGLHV
WDNH SODFH DIWHU WKH ILUVW FRUUHFW SURWHFWLRQ RSHUDWLRQ HJ WKH
:HVWHUQ 3URWHFWLYH 5HOD\ &RQIHUHQFH 6SRNDQH 2FWREHU
PDORSHUDWLRQ RI UHOD\V RQ D SDUDOOHO OLQH IROORZLQJ WKH FRU

UHFW RSHQLQJ RI WKH EUHDNHUV RQ WKH DGMDFHQW OLQH 7R GHDO
ZLWK VXFK VLWXDWLRQV UHTXLUHV LQWHUDFWLYH WHVWLQJ ZLWK UHDO  6WDQGDUG IRU 7LPH 2YHUFXUUHQW 5HOD\ &KDUDFWHULVWLFV
WLPH VLPXODWRUV DQG UHOD\V RU RIIOLQH VWXGLHV LQFOXGLQJ DF $16,,((( 6WDQGDUG & 
FXUDWH PRGHOV (YHQ ZKHQ D UHDO WLPH VLPXODWRU LV EHLQJ
 5 - 0DUWWLOD 'LUHFWLRQQDO &KDUDFWHULVWLFV RI 'LV
XVHG WR WHVW D VLQJOH UHOD\ RU FRQWUROOHU LQ LQWHUDFWLYH PRGH
WDQFH 5HOD\ 0KR (OHPHQWV 3DUW , $ 1HZ 0HWKRG RI $QDO\
WKH RWKHU UHOD\V DQG FRQWUROOHUV PXVW EH PRGHOHG RQ WKH
VLV ,((( 7UDQV RQ 3$6 9RO 3$6 1R  -DQXDU\
VLPXODWRU WR DOORZ FRPSOHWH V\VWHP WHVWLQJ


 5 - 0DUWWLOD (YDOXDWLRQ DQG 7HVWLQJ RI /LQH 3URWHF


9,,, &21&/86,216
WLRQV IRU VHULHV FRPSHQVDWHG 7UDQVPLVVLRQ /LQHV ,(( '363
6RIWZDUH SKDVRU W\SH PRGHOV DUH DOUHDG\ LQ ZLGHVSUHDG  3URFHHGLQJV ,(( &RQIHUHQFH 3XEOLFDWLRQ 1R 
XVH E\ UHOD\ HQJLQHHUV 6RIWZDUH WUDQVLHQW PRGHOV JHQHULF
RU GHWDLOHG DUH LQFUHDVLQJO\ EHLQJ XVHG E\ 8WLOLWLHV WR H[  /3 &DYHUR &RPSXWHU DLGHG HYDOXDWLRQ DQG DSSOLFD
DPLQH GLIILFXOW DSSOLFDWLRQ LVVXHV 7KH LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ ZKLFK WLRQ RI GLVWDQFH UHOD\V ,(( '363  3URFHHGLQJV ,((
VXFK PRGHOV LV EDVHG LV HLWKHU DYDLODEOH IURP PDQXIDFWXUHUV &RQIHUHQFH 3XEOLFDWLRQ 1R 
IURP PDQXIDFWXUHUV OHDIOHWV RU SDWHQWV RU IURP WHFKQLFDO  -5 /XFDV 3* 0F/DUHQ 6RPH 3UREOHPV LQ 5H
SDSHUV GHVFULELQJ WKH UHOD\ SHUIRUPDQFH 6RIWZDUH PRGHOV OD\LQJ 6HULHV &RPSHQVDWHG /LQHV 3URFHHGLQJV RI ,(((
PXVW EH YDOLGDWHG DJDLQVW WKH SHUIRUPDQFH RI WKH DFWXDO UHOD\ &&(&( &RQIHUHQFH 6HSWHPEHU  S
DQG WKH UHOD\ HQJLQHHU PXVW EH FDUHIXO WR XVH WKH PRGHO RQO\
LQ VLWXDWLRQV ZKHUH DQ\ DVVXPSWLRQV RQ ZKLFK WKH PRGHO LV  3 * 0F/DUHQ ( 1 'LUNV 5 3 -D\DVLQJKH * :
EDVHG DUH DSSOLFDEOH 6ZLIW = =KDQJ 8VLQJ D 5HDO 7LPH 'LJLWDO 6LPXODWRU WR
'HYHORS DQ $FFXUDWH 0RGHO RI D 'LJLWDO 5HOD\ 3URFHHGLQJV
,; 5()(5(1&(6 RI ,&'6
 &ROOHJH 6WDWLRQ 7H[DV 86$
- 6LQJK 06 6DFKGHY 5- )OHPLQJ DQG $( .UDXVH  76 6LGKX 06 6DFKGHY DQG +& :RRG $ &RP
'LJLWDO ,'70 2YHUFXUUHQW 5HOD\V 3URFHHGLQJV RI ,(( SXWHU$LGHG 'HVLJQ 7RRO IRU 'HYHORSLQJ 'LJLWDO &RQWUROOHUV
 '363 &RQIHUHQFH ,(( 3XEOLFDWLRQ QR  SS  DQG 5HOD\V ,((( 7UDQV RQ ,QGXVWU\ $SSOLFDWLRQV 9RO 
 (2 6FKZHLW]HU DQG $ $OLDJD 'LJLWDO 3URJUDPPDEOH 1R  1RY'HF  SS 
7LPH3DUDPHWHU 5HOD\ 2IIHUV 9HUVDWLOLW\ DQG $FFXUDF\  $* 3KDGNH -6 7KRUS &RPSXWHU 5HOD\LQJ IRU
,((( 7UDQV RQ 3RZHU $SSDUDWXV DQG 6\VWHPV 9RO 3$6 3RZHU 6\VWHPV 5HVHDUFK 6WXG\ 3UHVV /WG -RKQ :LOH\
 1R  -DQ)HE  SS  6RQV ,QF 
 :2 .HQQHG\ %- *UXHOO &+ 6KLK DQG / <HH  9 &RRN $QDO\VLV RI 'LVWDQFH 3URWHFWLRQ 5HVHDUFK
)LYH <HDUV ([SHULHQFH ZLWK D 1HZ 0HWKRG RI 7HVWLQJ &URVV 6WXG\ 3UHVV /WG -RKQ :LOH\ 6RQV ,QF 
DQG 4XDGUDWXUH 3RODUL]HG 5HOD\V 3DUW , 5HVXOWV DQG 2EVHU
YDWLRQV ,((( 7UDQV RQ 3RZHU 'HOLYHU\ 9RO  1R  -XO\  06 6DFKGHY &RRUGLQDWRU  &RPSXWHU 5HOD\LQJ
 SS  ,((( 7XWRULDO &RXUVH 7H[W 3XEOLFDWLRQ 1R  (+
3:5 
 :2 .HQQHG\ %- *UXHOO &+ 6KLK DQG / <HH
)LYH <HDUV ([SHULHQFH ZLWK D 1HZ 0HWKRG RI 7HVWLQJ &URVV  ) (QJOHU 2( /DQ] 0 +DJJOL DQG * %DFFKLQL
DQG 4XDGUDWXUH 3RODUL]HG 5HOD\V 3DUW ,, 7KUHH &DVH 6WXG 7UDQVLHQW 6LJQDOV DQG WKHLU 3URFHVVLQJ LQ 8OWUD +LJK6SHHG
LHV ,((( 7UDQV RQ 3RZHU 'HOLYHU\ 9RO  1R  -XO\ 'LUHFWLRQDO 5HOD\ IRU (+98+9 7UDQVPLVVLRQ /LQH 3URWHF
 SS  WLRQ ,((( 7UDQVDFWLRQ RQ 3RZHU $SSDUDWXV DQG 6\VWHPV
9RO 3$6-XQH  SS 
 = 3HQJ 06 /L *9 :X 7& &KHQJ DQG 76 1LQJ
$ '\QDPLF 6WDWH 6SDFH 0RGHO RI D 0+2 'LVWDQFH 5HOD\


 (2 6FKZHLW]HU DQG - 5REHUWV ,OO 'LVWDQFH 5HOD\
(OHPHQW 'HVLJQ WK $QQXDO :HVWHUQ 3URWHFWLYH 5HOD\
&RQIHUHQFH 6SRNDQH :DVKLQJWRQ 2FWREHU  

 ' +DUW ' 1RYRVHO ) &DOHUR ( 8GUHQ DQG / <DQJ


'HYHORSPHQW RI D 1XPHULFDO &RPSDUDWRU IRU 3URWHFWLYH
5HOD\LQJ 3DUW ,, ,((( 7UDQV RQ 3RZHU 'HOLYHU\ 9RO 
1R  -XO\  SS 

 * %HQPRX\DO 5HPRYDO RI '&2IIVHW LQ &XUUHQW


:DYHIRUP 8VLQJ 'LJLWDO 0LPLF )LOWHULQJ ,((( 7UDQVDF
WLRQV RQ 3RZHU 'HOLYHU\ 9RO  1R $SULO  SS 


 0LFURSURFHVVRU 5HOD\V DQG 3URWHFWLRQ 6\VWHPV ,(((


7XWRULDO &RXUVH 7H[W 3XEOLFDWLRQ 1R (+23:5

 $GYDQFHPHQWV LQ 0LFURSURFHVVRU %DVHG 3URWHFWLRQ


DQG &RPPXQLFDWLRQ ,((( 7XWRULDO &RXUVH 7H[W 3XEOLFDWLRQ
1R 73 

 06 6DFKGHY 0 1DJSDO DQG 7 $GX ,QWHUDFWLYH


6RIWZDUH IRU (YDOXDWLQJ DQG 7HDFKLQJ 'LJLWDO 5HOD\LQJ
$OJRULWKPV ,((( 7UDQVDFWLRQV RQ 3RZHU 6\VWHPV 9RO 
1R  )HE  SS 

 +& :RRG 06 6DFKGHY DQG 76 6LGKX 7RROV IRU
&RPSXWHU $LGHG 'HYHORSPHQW RI 0LFURSURFHVVRU %DVHG
3RZHU 6\VWHP 5HOD\V 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH ,((( ,$6 
&RQIHUHQFH 3XEOLFDWLRQ 1R &+ 3DUW ,, 
SS

 0 .HVXQRYLF 4 &KHQ $ 1RYHO $SSURDFK IRU ,Q


WHUDFWLYH 3URWHFWLYH 6\VWHP 6LPXODWLRQ ,((( 7UDQVDFWLRQV
RQ 3RZHU 6\VWHPV 9RO  1R  $SULO  SS 

  

You might also like