Project Time

Management
Critical Path versus Critical Chain
Goals for Today
Understand how PMI does Project Time management
Show what is missing in our Critical Path methodology
Introduce you to Dr. Eliyahu Goldratt
Developer of Theory of Constraints and Critical Chain Project
Management
Author and Philosopher
Suggest a more complete way of running projects
You will not leave today as an expert in Critical Chain but
I hope it will peek your interest in learning more
The Iron Triangle of Project Management

Res

Res
 This triangle fails to address

All resources are NOT equal

Excerpt from The Project Management
Body of Knowledge (PMBOK) 4th edition

The relationship between Critical Path, Critical Chain and Schedule

Compression

6.5.2 Develop Schedule: Tools and Technique

6.5.2.2 Critical Path Methodology (CPM)
6.5.2.3 Critical Chain Method
6.5.2.7 Schedule Compression (Crashing and Fast Tracking)
Excerpts from PMBOK
Schedule Compression Defined

6.5.2.7 Schedule Compression

Schedule compression shortens the project schedule without changing the
project scope, to meet schedule constraints, imposed dates, or other
schedule objectives. Schedule compression techniques include:
Fast Tracking
Crashing
Excerpts from PMBOK
Schedule Compression Technique

Fast tracking. A schedule compression technique in which phases or

activities normally performed in sequence are performed in parallel. An
example is constructing the foundation for a building before completing
all of the architectural drawings. Fast tracking may result in rework and
increased risk. Fast tracking only works if activities can be overlapped to
shorten the duration.
Fast Tracking
Technique

Fast tracking. A schedule compression technique in which phases or

activities normally performed in sequence are performed in parallel. An
example is constructing the foundation for a building before completing
all of the architectural drawings. Fast tracking may result in rework and
increased risk. Fast tracking only works if activities can be overlapped to
shorten the duration.
 Fast Tracking Rework could actually
Tradeoffs
cause the schedule to be
lengthened!
Fast tracking. A schedule compression technique in which phases or
Fast Tracking
activities can inonly
normally performed beareused
sequence performed in parallel. An
example is constructing the foundation for a building before completing
where activities
all of the can be
architectural drawings. Fast overlapped
tracking may result in rework and
increased risk. Fast tracking only works if activities can be overlapped to
shorten the duration.
Understand and manage
the risks
Excerpts from PMBOK
Schedule Compression Techniques

Crashing. A schedule compression technique in which cost and

schedule tradeoffs are analyzed to determine how to obtain the greatest
amount of compression for the least incremental cost. Examples of
crashing could include approving overtime, bringing in additional
resources, or paying to expedite delivery to activities on the critical path.
Crashing only works for activities where additional resources will shorten
the duration. Crashing does not always produce a viable alternative and
may result in increased risk and/or cost.
Crashing
Techniques

Crashing. A schedule compression technique in which cost and

schedule tradeoffs are analyzed to determine how to obtain the greatest
amount of compression for the least incremental cost. Examples of
crashing could include approving overtime, bringing in additional
resources, or paying to expedite delivery to activities on the critical path.
Crashing only works for activities where additional resources will shorten
the duration. Crashing does not always produce a viable alternative and
may result in increased risk and/or cost.
Crashing Crashing nearly
Tradeoffs always adds cost.
Crashing. A schedule compression technique in which cost and
schedule tradeoffs are analyzed to determine how to obtain the greatest
Make sure your budget
amount of compression for the least incremental cost. Examples of
crashing could include approving overtime, bringing in additional
can handle the added
resources, or paying to expedite delivery to activities on the critical path.
Crashing only works for activities where additional resources will shorten
Expense!
the duration. Crashing does not always produce a viable alternative and
may result in increased risk and/or cost.

Discuss this with your sponsor

Andy Crowe, PMP
Crashing
Crashing adds more resources to an activity. This
usually increases the cost due to the law of
diminishing returns which predicts that 10
people usually cannot complete an activity in half
the time that 5 people can. The savings from
crashing are rarely linear.
Why Crashing often doesnt work
People are not all the same
Different Skills
Different work capacities

Having More people is not always a solution

In Fact it is rarely the solution
It often takes more time

Having the Right people is more important!

Critical Path Versus Critical Chain
Major Difference

Even though the Critical Path method is more

popular than Critical Chain, Critical Path does not
take resources into account where Critical Chain
does
Project Time Management- Critical Path Method

From the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK)

Critical Path is generally, but not always, the sequence of schedule activities that determines
the duration of the project. It is the longest path through the project.

Critical Path Methodology (CPM) [Technique]. A schedule network analysis technique used to
determine the amount of scheduling flexibility (the amount of float) on various logical network
paths in the project schedule network, and to determine the minimum total project duration.
Early start and finish dates are calculated by means of a forward pass, using a specified start
date. Late start and finish dates are calculated by means of a backward pass, starting from a
specified completion date, which sometimes is the project early finish date determined during
the forward pass calculation.
 Time Estimates
How do we determine how long an activity will take?

Expert Judgment
Asking the most experienced person to judge the time
This is often the person doing the work
Could lead to a conflict of interest

Historical Data
Experience of the company doing this activity before
More reliable, but limited
Problems with Estimating Time
Most people do not want to be late so they normally pad
the time estimate
Experts estimate how long it would take them to do a specific
task but the person who actually does that task may not have
the same expertise
Time estimates almost always end up being negotiated
If you are negotiating with the person doing the work, who do
you think is going to be right in the end?
PERT (Program/Project Evaluation and Review Technique)
Developed in the 1950s by the US Navy in conjunction with Booze, Allen and
Hamilton
Also Called 3-point estimate, Often used in Critical Path Methodology

Start with 3 estimates:

Pessimistic
Realistic
Optimistic
The Formula for a 3-point estimate (or PERT) is:
(Pessimistic + 4xRealistic + Optimistic)/6
Example of PERT
Given:
Optimistic 10 days
Pessimistic 25 days
Realistic 15 days
(25 + 4x15 + 10)/6=
(25 + 60 + 10)/6=
95/6 = 15.83

PERT works well but it is only as good as the estimates which

were probably acquired through expert judgment.
But, is a little bit more objective than Expert Judgment alone
The Delphi Technique
An information gathering technique used as a way to reach
consensus from experts
Responses from the experts are anonymous
Responses are summarized then re-distributed to the experts for
comment
Consensus may be reached in a few rounds of this process
This technique helps reduce bias keeps any one person from having
undue influence
Drawbacks are that we need a more than one or two experts
Takes more time that we typically want to spend estimating time
Critical Path Calculation
The PMI Way Activity Duration Dependent on
Start 0
A 3 Start
Once duration is estimated for B 4 Start
C 2 Start
each activity build a table with D 2 B
each activities duration and E 5 A,C
F 1 B
dependencies G 6 D, F
H 11 E
I 8 D, F
Finish 0 G,H,I
Critical Path Calculation
The PMI Way

Draw a network diagram

The next step is to list out all of the paths through the network.
The six paths are:
Start-A-E-H -Finish Start-C-E-H -Finish
Start-B-F-I-Finish Start-B-F-G-Finish
Start-B-D-I-Finish Start-B-D-G-Finish
The last step is to add up all of the
values associated with each path as is
done below:
Start-A-E-H-Finish = 0+3+5+11+0 = 19
Start-C-E-H-Finish = 0+2+5+11+0 = 18
Start-B-F-I-Finish = 0+4+1+8+0 = 13
Start -B-F-G-Finish =0+4+1+6+0 = 11
Start-B-D-I-Finish =0+4+2+8+0 = 14
Start-B-D-G-Finish = 0+4+2+6+0 = 12
Start-A-E-H-Finish = 0+3+5+11+0 = 19
Start-C-E-H-Finish = 0+2+5+11+0 = 18
Start-B-F-I-Finish = 0+4+ 1+8+0 = 13
Start -B-F-G-Finish =0+4+ 1 +6+0 = 11
Start-B-D-I-Finish =0+4+2+8+0 = 14
Start-B-D-G-Finish = 0+4+2+6+0 = 12
The critical path emerges as Start-A-E-H-Finish because the
path adds up to 19, which is longer than any of the other
paths. If any of the activities in this path are delayed, the finish
of the project will be delayed.
We are not done yet we now
need to calculate Float or Activity
Start
Duration
0
Dependent on

Slack time. A 3 Start

B 4 Start
C 2 Start
D 2 B
E 5 A,C
F 1 B
G 6 D, F
H 11 E
I 8 D, F
Finish 0 G,H,I
Eliminate the critical path and subtract all paths from critical path

Start-A-E-H -Finish Start-C-E-H -Finish

Start-B-F-I-Finish Start-B-F-G-Finish
Start-B-D-I-Finish Start-B-D-G-Finish
The Critical path ALWAYS has zero
float
Subtract each path from critical path Float
Start-A-E-H-Finish = 0+3+5+11+0 = 19 19-19= 0
Start-C-E-H-Finish = 0+2+5+11+0 = 18 19-18= 1
Start-B-F-I-Finish = 0+4+ 1+8+0 = 13 19-13= 5
Start -B-F-G-Finish =0+4+ 1 +6+0 = 11 19-11= 8
Start-B-D-I-Finish =0+4+2+8+0 = 14 19-14= 5
Start-B-D-G-Finish = 0+4+2+6+0 = 12 19-12= 7
Each activitys float must also be
calculated to get a full picture
To accomplish this we need to do a Forward Pass and a
Backward Pass
Use a Forward Pass to calculate Early Start and Early Finish

1 3 4 8 9 19

1 2 5 5 6 13

1 4 5 6 6 11
Do a Backward Pass to calculate Late Start and Late Finish Times

1 3 4 8 9 19

10 11 12 12 12 19

7 10 11 12 14 19
Now we have both Early and Late Start and Finish Times
1 3 4 8 9 19

1 3 4 8 9 19
1 2 5 5 6 13

10 11 12 12 12 19
1 4 5 6 6 11

7 10 11 12 14 19
For Critical Path Early and Late times are the sameNo Float

1 3 4 8 9 19

1 3 4 8 9 19
1 2 5 5 6 13

10 11 12 12 12 19
1 4 5 6 6 11

7 10 11 12 14 19
 To Calculate Float subtract Early Start from Late Start OR Early
Finish from Late Finish
1 3 4 8 9 19
11=0 0
0 0
1 3 4 8 9 19
10 1 = 9 1 2 5 6 13
5

9 7 6

10 11 12 12 12 19
1 4 5 6 6 11

6 6 8
7-1= 6
7 10 11 12 14 19
Why would anyone go through this
when Microsoft Project will calculate
your critical path for you
Critical Path is in Red
Microsoft Project will also draw your
network diagram for you
Critical path is in Red
What is missing from our Plan?
We have not
accounted for our
Resources
Critical Path drives bad
behavior
Student syndrome
Starting work only as the deadline approaches, not
right away when assigned
Parkinsons Law
Work expands so as to fill the time available for its
completion
More bad behavior due to Critical
Path
The confidence gap
Im confident I can drive to work in 20 minutes, but if I
factor in the unexpected (snow storm, auto accident)
Id have to say >1 hour
All delays are passed on to the next task, early
completions are rarely passed on to the next task
as there is no incentive to do so
If a resource knows they have extra time they
will probably try to multitask
The Science of Multitasking
A study in the Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human
Perception and Performance (Vol. 27, No. 4) indicates that
multitasking may actually be less efficient--especially for
complicated or unfamiliar tasks--because it takes extra time to
shift mental gears every time a person switches between the
two tasks.

http://www.apa.org/research/action/multitask.aspx
The Science of Multitasking
Excerpts from American Psychological Association
(American Psychological Association, March 20, 2006)

Doing more than one task at a time, especially more than one
complex task, takes a toll on productivity.
Thus, multitasking may seem efficient on the surface but may
actually take more time in the end and involve more error.
even brief mental blocks created by shifting between tasks can
cost as much as 40 percent of someone's productive time.
Understanding the hidden costs of multitasking may help people
to choose strategies that boost their efficiency - above all, by
avoiding multitasking, especially with complex tasks.
http://www.apa.org/research/action/multitask.aspx
Getting back to our Project
This is a small software
Activity Duration Dependent on Resource Name
Start 0

project A
B
3
4
Start
Start
Fred
Joe
Only last 19 days C
D
2
2
Start
B
Fred
Joe
Only needs 2 programmers E 5 A,C Fred
F 1 B Joe
All programmers are the G
H
6
11
D, F
E
Fred
Joe
sameright? I 8 D, F Fred
Joe
Programmers
Finish 0 G,H,I

Fred
Joe
Adding Resources to our
But this is not a problem, MS project
project yields this will take care of this, just press the
resource leveling button

Notice the little red peoplethis indicates a resource issue

Asking MS Project to level
resources yields this

MS Projects answer to this dilemma is just to push out the end date from 11/15
to 11/22

Our Critical path has also changed from AEH to BFG

Results of resource leveling
Our project end date moved
Our critical path is now different
Our project is now going to be 4 days late
On a project that was only 19 days to begin with this is a
slippage of 29%
Customer isnt happy
Sponsor isnt happy
Critical Chain
The answer is to account for resources before we
commit to our schedule
Project Time Management- Critical Chain Method
From the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK)
Critical Chain Method

Critical chain is a schedule network analysis technique that modifies the project schedule to
account for limited resources. Initially, the project schedule network diagram is built using
duration estimates with required dependencies and defined constraints as inputs. The critical
path is then calculated. After the critical path is identified, resource availability is entered and
the resource-limited schedule result is determined. The resulting schedule often has an altered
critical path.

The resource-constrained critical path is known as the critical chain. The critical chain method
adds duration buffers that are non-work schedule activities to manage uncertainty. One buffer,
placed at the end of the critical chain, is known as the project buffer and protects the target
finish date from slippage along the critical chain. Additional buffers, known as feeding buffers,
are placed at each point that a chain of dependent tasks not on the critical chain feeds into the
critical chain. Feeding buffers thus protect the critical chain from slippage along the feeding
chains. The size of each buffer should account for the uncertainty in the duration of the chain of
dependent tasks leading up to that buffer. Once the buffer schedule activities are determined,
the planned activities are scheduled to their latest possible planned start and finish dates.
Consequently, in lieu of managing the total float of network paths, the critical chain method
focuses on managing remaining buffer durations against the remaining durations of task chains.
Project Time Management- Critical Chain Method
From the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK)
Critical Chain Method

Critical chain is a schedule network analysis technique that modifies the project schedule
to account for limited resources. Initially, the project schedule network diagram is built using
duration estimates with required dependencies and defined constraints as inputs. The critical
path is then calculated. After the critical path is identified, resource availability is entered and
the resource-limited schedule result is determined. The resulting schedule often has an altered
critical path.

The resource-constrained critical path is known as the critical chain. The critical chain method
adds duration buffers that are non-work schedule activities to manage uncertainty. One buffer,
placed at the end of the critical chain, is known as the project buffer and protects the
target finish date from slippage along the critical chain. Additional buffers, known as
feeding buffers, are placed at each point that a chain of dependent tasks not on the critical chain
feeds into the critical chain. Feeding buffers thus protect the critical chain from slippage along
the feeding chains. The size of each buffer should account for the uncertainty in the duration of
the chain of dependent tasks leading up to that buffer. Once the buffer schedule activities are
determined, the planned activities are scheduled to their latest possible planned start and finish
dates. Consequently, in lieu of managing the total float of network paths, the critical chain
method focuses on managing remaining buffer durations against the remaining durations of task
chains.
Critical Chain Method from Wikipedia

Critical chain project management (CCPM) is a method of

planning and managing projects that puts the main
emphasis on the resources required to execute project
tasks. It was developed by Dr. Eliyahu M. Goldratt. This is in
contrast to the more traditional critical path and PERT
methods, which emphasize task order and rigid scheduling.
Critical Chain Method from Wikipedia (continued)
A Critical Chain project network will tend to keep the
resources levelly loaded, but will require them to be flexible
in their start times and to quickly switch between tasks and
task chains to keep the whole project on schedule.
Application of CCPM has been credited with achieving
projects 10% to 50% faster and/or cheaper than the
traditional methods (i.e. CPM, PERT, Gantt, etc.) developed
from 1910 to 1950s
Why do Critical Chain?
From Wikipedia:
Application of CCPM has been credited with achieving projects 10% to 50%
faster and/or cheaper than the traditional methods

According to Prochain Solutions:

Improves speed by 30%
Improves Predictability by more than 90%
Increases Productivity
Reduces: Stress, Errors and Wasted Time
Dr. Eliyahu Moshe Goldratt
March 31, 1947 - June 11, 2011

Israeli physicist who became a business management

guru
Best known for his Theory of Constraints (TOC)
Critical Chain Project Management (CCPM) was derived from TOC

Bestselling Author
The Goal, Its Not Luck, Beyond the Goal, Critical Chain, and others

Great Philosopher
 Eli Goldratts
Grave
One, people are good. Two,
every conflict can be removed.
Three, every situation, no matter
how complex it initially looks, is
exceedingly simple. Four, every
situation can be substantially
improved; even the sky is not the
limit. Five, every person can reach a
full life. Six, there is always a win-
win solution
Eli Goldratt Quotes
People are good
Stupidity has no limitations
Common sense is not common at all
Isnt it obvious?
The more complex the problem, the simpler the
solution must be
More Eli Goldratt Quotes
Dont bark if you cannot bite
As long as you cannot verbalize your
intuition the only thing you will
communicate is your own confusion
If you think you can counter emotion
with logic, youve not been married
Get to Know Eli Goldratt

Eli Goldratt video on Project Management

 The Mechanics of Critical Chain
3 5 11
A E H

S F
T 2 1 8 I
A C F I N
R I
4 2 6 S
T B D G H

Our network diagram redrawn to relative scale

 The Mechanics of Critical Chain
3 5 11
A E H

S F
T 2 1 8 I
A C F I N
R I
4 2 6 S
T B D G H

Start by cutting all Durations in half!

 The Mechanics of Critical Chain
3 5 11
1.5 2.5 5.5
A E H

S 2 1 8 F
T 1 .5 4 I
A C F I N
4 2 6 I
R
2 1 3 S
T B D G H

All that slashed duration becomes the Project Buffer

(yellow) which we put at the end of the project
 The Mechanics of Critical Chain
1.5 2.5 5.5
A E H
F
S I
T 1 .5 4 N
A C F I Project Buffer
I
R 3 S
2 1
T B D G H

The new schedule looks like this

 The Mechanics of Critical Chain
1.5 2.5 5.5
A E H
F
S I
T 1 .5 4 N
A C F I Project Buffer
I
R 3 S
2 1
T B D G H

Now we can add some small buffers called Feeder

Buffers if necessary to protect the critical path
These will come out of our project buffer
 This will not make you the most
popular person
1.5 2.5 5.5
A E H
F
S I
T 1 .5 4 N
A C F I Project Buffer
I
R 3 S
2 1
T B D G H

Explain that they will not be held to the due date, just
get the work done as quickly as possible
The Project Manager owns and
manages the buffer
The buffer exists to protect the
customer
Ideally the buffer should be used at
the same rate as the project is
completed
Project Fever Chart
Used to track the project Buffer

Red- needs management attention

Yellow- All is well
Green- Ahead of schedule
Advantages of Critical Chain
Resources can get to work as soon as possible and work as
quickly as possible
No reason to put the work off, there is nothing else to do
No need to multitask they are only expected to deliver one thing
at a time
No reason to make the work fill a specified amount of time
Team members should think of this as a relay race, not a
marathon
Go as quickly as possible on each leg they own
Pass it to another team member as quickly as possible
This Change will Take Time
People will reject this change
They wont like their time cut in half
They wont believe the system will work and may sabotage it
It will require upper management support to be successful
Sell them first!
Warn themthere will be complaints
This requires a complete culture change
Deliver on your improvement of schedule or cost and
everyone will be sold on Critical Chain!
Resources to find out more about Critical Chain
Eli Goldratts Website www.TOC.tv
Lots of information and many Free Videos

Many videos on youtube

Good Overview of Critical Chain
Explanation from Dr. Lisa Lang, from www.Scienceofbusiness.com

More in-depth explanation of Critical Chain

From Pro Chain Solutions www.prochain.com
Questions?
Thank You
Gary Terrell, PMP