Cities: human-environment systems of

increasing complexity
PER BECKER
Content
Some concepts
Urban evolution
Urban revolution
The challenge of increasing complexity
Summary
What is a city?
City
a large town
Town
an urban area that has a name, defined boundaries,
and local government, and that is generally larger than
a village and smaller than a city
Urban
in, relating to, or characteristic of a city or town

(Oxford English Dictionary 2011)

What is a city?
City
a center of population, commerce, and culture
What is a human-environment system?
System
a group of interacting, interrelated, or interdependent
elements forming a complex whole (American Heritage Dictionary 2000)

Risk is largely a by-product of how human beings

transform the natural environment into a cultural
environment for the purpose of serving human needs and
wants (Renn 2008:5)

Disturbances, disruptions and disasters are non-linear

phenomena that emerge within complex systems
themselves (Perrow 1999; Hollnagel 2006:12)
Urban evolution
- 4.5 billion Earth was created
- 4 billion First life emerged
- 200,000 First anatomically modern human
- 60,000 Successful migration out of Africa
- 10,000 All but Antarctica settled

We have proven to be extraordinarily adaptable!

Urban evolution
Society Revolution
200,000 60,000 Hunter-gatherer society
Upper Paleolithic Revolution
Around 60,000
(speech, intelligence, creativity)
60,000 8,000 BC Hunter-gatherer society

8,000 5,000 BC Neolithic Revolution

8,000 BC 1750 Agrarian society

1750 ongoing? Industrial Revolution

1750 Industrial society

Urban evolution
Hunter-gatherer society Upper Paleolithic Revolution

Around 60,000 Hunter-gatherers

60,000 8,000 BC Systematic exploitation of raw material
and tool production
Specialised utensils and hunting tools
Symbols, decorations and jewellery
Long-distance exchange networks

10,000 BC: 4 million

Urban evolution
Neolithic Revolution

Reason debatable
Cultivate plants and domesticate animals
8,000 5,000 BC Change environment to suit purposes
Initially semi-sedentary, then settled
Greater food reliability and composition
increased fertile age span, health and
body size
Urban evolution
Agrarian Society

Villages emerged
Division of labour
Accumulation of wealth
8,000 BC 1750 Organised trade
Importance of territory and ownership
Social stratification and alliances
Organised armed conflict
Urban evolution
Agrarian Society

Villages protected by palisades

Purpose-made weapons
3300 BC: Bronze invented
8,000 BC 1750 Pack animals, boats and wheeled vehicles
facilitated concentration of resources
Increased division of labour

3000 BC: 14 million and the first cities!

Urban evolution
Agrarian Society

High population density new diseases

Over-irrigation salinisation
Overuse of soil erosion and
8,000 BC 1750
desertification

Cities fell!
First significant sustainability challenge!
Urban evolution
Agrarian Society

New technology, e.g. terracing, controlled

flooding
Increased capacity to move rock and soil

8,000 BC 1750
1300 BC: Iron discovered

Labour and innovation repeatedly helped

overcome local sustainability challenges,
but caused new challenges
Urban evolution
Agrarian Society

Energy need common obstacle

Exploration of new territory
Science
8,000 BC 1750

1400: 350 million

Urban evolution
Industrial Revolution

Combination of accumulation of
knowledge and addition resources from
colonies incubated a revolution in England
First steam engine, then combustion
engine
1750 ongoing? Revolutionised resource exploitation,
manufacturing, transportation, food
production, etc
Parallel developments in medicine and
health
Urban evolution
Industrial Society

France 1815
Germany, USA and Japan 1860-70s
China 1950s

1750: 720 million

1750 1820: 1 billion CO2 emissions have increased a
factor 100 since 1820
1930: 2 billion
1960: 3 billion
Urban evolution turning into revolution

The top ten cities of the world in terms of population over time
Urban revolution
Global population almost tripled since 1950
Global economic purchasing power increased more that
tenfold since 1950, mainly in urban areas

Where is the change

happening now?

Urban population (% of total)

Urban revolution
Since 2008, more that 50% live in urban areas
The entire population growth for the coming 50 years is
urban

1950: Two cities with more than 10 million

Today: 24 and expected to be 30 soon (only 20% in
developed countries)

Concentrating people into cities is beneficial (for many)

but still associated with challenges!
The challenge of increasing complexity
Modern cities are less for protection, but still for increased
efficiency by facilitating finer division of labour and the
flows of people, goods and ideas (Glaeser 1998)

Cities provide critical societal functions to its citizens

State, market and civil society actors all contribute to the
functioning of cities
Cities are not self-sufficient, but dependent on resources
from elsewhere
The challenge of increasing complexity
Globalisation
the increasing extensity, intensity and velocity of global
interactions
the effects of distant events can be highly significant
elsewhere and specific local developments can come to
have considerable global consequences (Held 2001:324)
The challenge of increasing complexity
Cities are hubs in networks of flows of people, capital,
goods and services
The functioning of cities depend on flows between and
within them (Castells 2010)

If a city is disconnected, it initially causes problems for

others in the network, but quite rapidly it is simply
bypassed with staggering local consequences (Castells 2010:147)
The challenge of increasing complexity
Cities can be seen as networks of critical functions and
flows
Cities are not only dependent on other cities, but on their
own internal functioning
Cities are getting increasingly complex
The challenge of increasing complexity
Four interconnected processes increasing the complexity
of cities
Optimisation
Institutional fragmentation
Increasingly aggressive and competitive environment
The challenge of increasing complexity
Increasing complexity results in:
Increases likelihood that two or more failures interact
in ways that are difficult to anticipate
Difficulties to anticipate effects of policies/activities/
events as they cascade throughout society
Loose overview and much of our ability to maintain
our critical flows and societal functions
Reduced buffers make smaller and smaller
disturbances to potentially lead to disruptions of entire
systems
Summary
Villages emerged with agrarian
society and grew into cities
When sustainability challenges
are overcome, new emerge
Cities are hubs in global
networks of flows
Cities are increasingly
complex, and this poses
sustainability challenges in
itself