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LECT-3-Desig of Experiments PDF
LECT-3-Desig of Experiments PDF
07-Mar-17
07-Mar-17
Introduction 5
Why is this trip necessary? Goals of the
DOE
An abbreviated history of DOX
Some basic principles and terminology
The strategy of experimentation
Guidelines for planning, conducting and
analyzing experiments
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Requirements of Research Design 7
Identify the kind of Research one Intend to Do
Be Realistic
Be Precise and
Be Flexible
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DOE History 8
The agricultural origins, 1918 1940s
R. A. Fisher & his co-workers
Profound impact on agricultural science
Factorial designs, ANOVA
The first industrial era, 1951 late 1970s
Box & Wilson, response surfaces
Applications in chemical & process industries
The second industrial era, late 1970s 1990
Quality improvement initiatives in many companies
Taguchi and robust parameter design, process
robustness
The modern era, beginning 1990
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Introduction to DOX 9
An experiment is a test or a series of tests
Experiments are used widely in the engineering
world
Process characterization & optimization
Evaluation of material properties
Product design & development
Component & system tolerance determination
Plays an important role in new product design
To develop a ROBUST design a process affected
minimally by external sources of variability.
All experiments are designed experiments, some
are poorly designed, some are well-designed
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Role of DOE in Process 13
Improvement
DOE is more efficient that a standard
approach of changing one variable at a
time in order to observe the variables
impact on a given response.
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Methods of Experimental Design 17
There are two types of research design:
Formal research design
Completely randomized
Randomized block
Latin square, and
Factorial design.
Informal research design
After only design
After only with control design
Before and after without control design
Before and after with control design, and
Ex-post facto design
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Formal Research Design 19
Latin Square Design:
This is the most frequently used design in case
of agricultural research process.
An experiment has to be made on the effects
of five different varieties of fertilizers on the
yield of a certain crop.
Suppose that there are 2 factors, fertility and
seeds that found to be important.
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CONCLUSION: 23
Thus from the mentioned methods it is clear
that the process of research design play an
important role in the analysis of research.
This helps the researcher, particularly the
beginners, a way to get the desired result.
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Engineering Experiments 24
Experimental Example: A Metallurgical Engineer is
interested in studying the effect of two different
hardening processes, oil quenching and saltwater
quenching, on an aluminum alloy.
The objective of the experimenter is to determine which
quenching solution produces the maximum hardness for
this particular alloy.
The engineer decides to subject a number of alloy
specimens or test coupons to each quenching medium
and measure the hardness of the specimens after
quenching.
The average hardness of the specimens treated in each
quenching solution will be used to determine which
solution is best.
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Results and Conclusions of 25
Experiment
The results and conclusions depend to a large extent on the
manner in which the data were collected.
Lets consider previous example, the metallurgical engineer
used specimens from one heat in the oil quench and
specimens from a second heat in the saltwater quench.
Now, when the mean hardness is compared, the engineer
is unable to say how much of the observed difference is
the result of the quenching media and how much is the
result of inherent differences between the heats.
Thus, the method of data collection has adversely
affected the conclusions that can be drawn from the
experiment.
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Engineering Experiments 26
Possible Questions
1. Are these two solutions the only quenching media of
potential interest?
2. Are there any other factors that might affect hardness
that should be investigated or controlled in this experiment?
3. How many coupons of alloy should be tested in each
quenching solution?
4. How should the test coupons be assigned to the
quenching solutions, and in what order should the data
be collected?
5. What method of data analysis should be used?
6. What difference in average observed hardness between
the two quenching media will be considered important?
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Results and Conclusions of 27
Experiment
Experiments are used to study the performance of
processes and systems.
The process or system can be
represented by the model shown in
figure 1.1.
We usually visualize the process as a
combination of Manpower,
Materials, Machines, Methods,
Money, and other resources that
transforms some input (often a
material) into an output that has one
or more observable responses.
Some of the process variables x1, x2, . . . , xp are controllable,
whereas other variables z1, z2, , Zq are uncontrollable (although
they may be controllable for purposes of a test).
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Engineering Experiments 28
Reduce time to design/develop new products
& processes
Improve performance of existing processes
Improve reliability and performance of
products
Achieve product & process robustness
(Taguchi) [reducing variation in a product
without eliminating the causes of the variation]
Evaluation of materials, design alternatives,
setting component & system tolerances, etc.
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Objectives of the Experiment 29
1. Determining which variable(s) are most
influential on the response y
2. Determining where to set the influential x's so
that y is almost always near the desired
nominal value
3. Determining where to set the influential x's so
that variability in y is small.
4. Determining where to set the influential x's so
that the effects of the uncontrollable variables
z1, z2, . zq, are minimized.
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The Basic Principles of DOX 31
Replication
Repetition of a basic experiment without
changing any factor settings
Allows the experimenter to estimate the
experimental error (noise) in the system used
to determine whether observed differences in
the data are real or just noise.
Replication versus repeat measurements?
(see page 13)
Allows the experimenter to obtain more
statistical power (ability to identify small
effects)
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DOE Terminology 34
Confounding
AExample:
confoundingThevariable, also known
relationship betweenas athethird variable
force applied orto
a
mediator
a ball andvariable, can adversely
the distance affect the relation between
the ball travels.
the
Theindependent variable
natural prediction andbe
would dependent
that the ballvariable.
given the most
This
forcemay
wouldcause
travelthe researcher
furthest. to analyze
However, the results
if the confounding
incorrectly.
variable is aThe results may
downward slantedshow a false
piece correlation
of wood to help
between theball,
propel the dependent andwould
the results independent variables,
be dramatically leading
different.
to an incorrect
The slanted rejection
wood is ofthe the null hypothesisvariable that
confounding
changes the outcome of the experiment.
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DOE Terminology 35
Confounding
A concept that basically means that multiple effects
are tied together into one parent effect and cannot be
separated. For example,
Two people flipping two different coins would result in
the effect of the person and the effect of the coin to be
confounded
As experiments get large, higher order interactions
are confounded with lower order interactions or main
effect.
For example, if you are researching whether lack of
exercise leads to weight gain, lack of exercise is your
independent variable and weight gain is your
dependent variable.
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DOE Terminology 36
Factors
Experimental factors or independent variables
(continuous or discrete) an investigator
manipulates to capture any changes in the
output of the process.
Other factors of concern are those that are
uncontrollable and those which are
controllable but held constant during the
experimental runs.
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DOE Terminology 37
Responses
Dependent variable measured to describe
the output of the process.
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DOE Terminology 38
Fixed Effects Model
If the treatment levels are specifically chosen
by the experimenter, then conclusions reached will
only apply to those levels.
Use fixed-effects (FE) whenever you are only interested
in analyzing the impact of variables that vary over
time.
The fixed-effects model controls for all time-invariant
differences between the individuals, so the estimated
coefficients of the fixed-effects models cannot be biased
because of omitted time-invariant characteristics[like culture,
religion, gender, race, etc]
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DOE Terminology 39
Fixed Effects Model
FE explore the relationship between predictor and
outcome variables within an entity (country,
person, company, etc.). Each entity has its own
individual characteristics that may or may not
influence the predictor variables. FE models are
designed to study the causes of changes within a
material, process, person [or entity]
Examples:, being a male or female could influence
the opinion toward certain issue, or
The political system of a particular country could have
some effect on trade or GDP; or
The business practices of a company may influence its
stock price
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DOE Terminology 40
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Planning a DOE 41
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Planning a DOE 42
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Planning a DOE 43
Choose an appropriate experimental design
(relatively simple design and analysis methods are
almost always best).
It will allow your experimental questions to be
answered once the data is collected and analyzed.
But keeping in mind tradeoffs between statistical
power and economic efficiency.
At this point in time it is generally useful to simulate
the study by generating and analyzing artificial data
to insure that experimental questions can be
answered as a result of conducting your experiment.
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Planning a DOE 44
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Planning a DOE 45
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Planning a DOE 46
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Planning a DOE 47
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Strategy of Experimentation 48
Best-guess experiments
Used a lot by engineers and scientists; based on technical or
theoretical knowledge
More successful than you might suspect, but there are
disadvantagesMay continue for a long time or may stop
One-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) experiments
Sometimes associated with the scientific or
engineering method
Devastated by interaction, also very inefficient
Statistically designed experiments
Based on Fishers factorial concept
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Factorial Designs 49
The general approach to plan and conducting the experiment is
called the strategy of experimentation. There are several strategies
that an experimenter could have
In a factorial experiment, all possible
combinations of factor levels are
tested
The golf experiment:
Type of driver (over or regular)
Type of ball (balata or 3-piece)
Walking vs. riding a cart
Type of beverage (Water vs Bear)
Time of round (am or pm)
Weather
Type of golf spike
Etc, etc, etc
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Factorial Designs 50
Driver Effect
Driver Effect = 92 + 94 + 93 + 91 - 88 + 91 + 88 + 90
4 4
= 3.25
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Factorial Designs 51
Ball Effect
Ball Effect = 88 + 91 + 92 + 94 - 88 + 90 + 93 + 91
4 4
= 0.75 07-Mar-17
Factorial Designs 52
Ball-Driver Effect
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Application of Experimental Design 55
Application of experimental design in process
development
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Types of Designs 59
The basic structure of a research study
Threats to particularly relevant to
experimental research
Types of designs (Campbell & Stanley, 1963)
Pre-experimental
True experimental and
Quasi-experimental
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Pre-experimental Designs 61
Weak experimental designs in terms of
control
No random sampling
Threats to internal and external validity
are significant problems
Many definite weaknesses
Example: One-group pretest/posttest design
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Methods of Control 63
Physical manipulation
Selective manipulation
Matched pairs and block designs
Counterbalanced designs
Statistical techniques
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Selective Manipulation 64
Intent is to increase likelihood that treatment
groups are similar at the beginning of study
Matched pairs design
Participants are matched according to some
key variable and then randomly assigned to
treatment group
Block design extension of matched pairs to
3 or more groups
Counterbalanced design
All participants receive all treatments, but in
different orders 07-Mar-17
Physical Manipulation 65
Best way to control extraneous variables
Researcher attempts to control all
aspects of the research, except the
experimental treatment
Difficult to control all variables
Some variables cannot be physically
controlled
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Statistical Techniques 66
Applied when physical manipulation or
selective manipulation is not possible
Differences among treatment groups are
known to exist at beginning of study
Groups may differ on initial ability
Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA)
Adjusts scores at the end of the study based
upon initial differences
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Common Sources of Error 67
Many possible sources of error can cause the results of
a research study to be incorrectly interpreted. The
following sources of error are more specific threats
to the validity of a study than those described
previously, Selected examples:
Hawthorne Effect
Placebo Effect
John Henry Effect
Rating Effect
Experimenter Bias Effect
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Hawthorne Effect 68
The alteration of behavior by the subjects of a study
due to their awareness of being observed.
If a change in lighting would affect productivity.
A specific type of reactive effect in which merely being
a research participant in an investigation may affect
behavior.
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