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Valuation of Properties and Economic Models of Real Estate Markets
Valuation of Properties and Economic Models of Real Estate Markets
Rainer Schulz
a
Vn,t ascertained market value
Mt general market conditions
def
Et [] = E[|xn,t , t ]
Dn,t+j net operating rent
Rt+i required returns from comparable investments
n,t n,t
1 1 1
En,t = 1 Dn,t + Ln,t (4)
t 1 + t 1 + t
E[Mt ] = 1 . (6)
Statistical model
Transaction price is market value influenced by proportional unusual
circumstances
Pn,t = Vn,t Un,t
with Et [Un,t ] = 1. With
Vn,t = Mt En,t
def Pn,t
Qn,t =
En,t
one obtains
Qn,t = Mt Un,t . (7)
E[Qn,t ] = 1 ,
Et [Qn,t ] = Mt ,
Empirical investigation
Data are provided by the Gutachterausschuss f
ur Grundst
uckswerte in
Berlin
transaction prices and property characteristics of apartment houses
in Berlin between 1980:1 and 2000:5, 4150 observations
indicated values are income values (Ertragswerte) calculated
according to WertV for internal purposes
Data are stored in the non-public sector of MD*Base, www.mdtech.de.
25.00
finely dashed: all objects built before 1949
dashed: all objects built after 1948
22.50 solid: all objects
20.00
17.50
15.00
12.50
10.00
REVincome2.xpl
Result I
Income values according to WertV are biased predictors for prices in the
long run
reject hypothesis E[Q] = 1 with
N (Q 1)
= 21.8
sQ
REVincome3.xpl
Capitalization technique
Multiple technique (Maklermethode) simply capitalizes current gross
g
rent Dn,t (Gottschalk, 1999)
g
a
Dn,t
Vn,t = g (8)
REVincome4.xpl
1.75
ratios of price to income value, multiple technique
ratios of price to income value, WertV
1.50
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
Result II
Multiple technique is a simpler technique than income valuation
according to WertV.
Regarding MSPE and MAPE, outcomes from multiple technique are
inferior compared with the outcomes from the WertV technique.
Density estimates reveal that investors and lenders may generally prefer
income valuations according to WertV if
conservative valuation is associated with smaller loss
loss increases with size of absolute prediction errors
Rationale for Mt
Ascertained market value is
a
Vn,t = Mt En,t
where
def
dn,t = ln Dn,t
def
rt+j = ln (1 + Rt+j )
k and are approximation constants
0<<1
and
def
X
mt = j Et [rt+1+j r] (11)
j=0
gives
qn,t = mt + n,t . (12)
mt accounts for time-varying discount rates.
+ s>
(L)mt = t + t (13a)
and
qn,t = mt + n,t . (13b)
Table 5: Estimated SSM for the general market conditions for 1982:6
to 2000:5.
Coefficient t-Statistic P-Value
0.925 32.26 0.000
-0.689 -6.07 0.000
[
ln -2.892 -20.56 0.000
[
ln -1.265 -104.87 0.000
Spread5 -3.953 -2.90 0.004
Real interest 5.759 1.68 0.092
Building permissions -0.027 -1.55 0.121
Log number of transactions 0.015 2.52 0.012
Rent index -0.986 -0.94 0.349
continued on the next slide
Table 5: continued
0.50
0.25
0.00
-0.25
-0.50
Conclusion
Present value is economic rationale of income valuation according to
WertV.
Two step valuation technique with constant discount rate, second step
adjusts for short-run variations of the discount rate.
Outcomes are biased, but better than outcomes from the simpler
multiple technique according to MAPE and MSPE.
Ranking of valuation techniques depends on whole distribution of
outcomes and loss function of investors.
References
Campbell, J. Y., A. W. Lo, and A. C. MacKinlay (1997): The
Econometrics of Financial Markets. Princeton University Press,
Princeton, New Jersey.