C. Continued cost pressure is likely. There is currently a lull in escalating crude oil prices due to elasticity of demand and economic downturn. However, no one can predict how permanent price changes will be or how much cost pressure will return with economic recovery. Supply-demand relationships also indicate continued long-term cost pressure as US oil demand is projected to remain high through 2000 despite conservation efforts. The US will likely continue importing more oil than it produces domestically to meet demand.
Is The Oil Industry Able To Support A World That Consumes 105 Million Barrels of Oil Per Day in 2025? - Oil & Gas Science and Technology (Hacquard, 2019)
C. Continued cost pressure is likely. There is currently a lull in escalating crude oil prices due to elasticity of demand and economic downturn. However, no one can predict how permanent price changes will be or how much cost pressure will return with economic recovery. Supply-demand relationships also indicate continued long-term cost pressure as US oil demand is projected to remain high through 2000 despite conservation efforts. The US will likely continue importing more oil than it produces domestically to meet demand.
C. Continued cost pressure is likely. There is currently a lull in escalating crude oil prices due to elasticity of demand and economic downturn. However, no one can predict how permanent price changes will be or how much cost pressure will return with economic recovery. Supply-demand relationships also indicate continued long-term cost pressure as US oil demand is projected to remain high through 2000 despite conservation efforts. The US will likely continue importing more oil than it produces domestically to meet demand.
C. Continued cost pressure is likely. There is currently a lull in escalating crude oil prices due to elasticity of demand and economic downturn. However, no one can predict how permanent price changes will be or how much cost pressure will return with economic recovery. Supply-demand relationships also indicate continued long-term cost pressure as US oil demand is projected to remain high through 2000 despite conservation efforts. The US will likely continue importing more oil than it produces domestically to meet demand.
At this writing there is a lull in the rate of escalation of crude oil prices. Economists attribute this to elasticity of oil demand as a function of price and to the economic downturn. No one can predict how much of this change in price is permanent (elasticity) and how much cost pressure will be produced when business turns back up. Indeed, petroleum demand has decreased much more than originally anticipated when its price rose. Because of economic need, all sectors of the economy have reduced consumption by more than the original token amounts offered to the government. Such activities were assisted by a steeper increase in oil prices than in capital costs over part of that period. In Fig. 1-2 an attempt is made to show a relationship between the escalation of crude oil prices and the inflation of capital costs since 1977. The slopes of the two curves are parallel for the first 2 yr of the period, but they diverge thereafter in a new round of oil price increases. Justifying capital investment to save energy was relatively easy under such circumstances. This cannot continue, however. Indirectly, energy cost increases will increase the cost of capital goods through the manufacturing cost segment. Workers are clamoring for catch-up pay increases to offset personal energy costs. The potential exists for capital costs to resume a rate of increase more nearly parallel with that of crude oil prices. If this occurs, reducing energy consumption through incremental capital investment will be that much more difficult. Supply-demand relationships for petroleum also presage continued cost pressure over the long run. Figure 1-3 shows the U.S. energy demand situation projected by Exxon Corporation in 1981. 1 Total energy demand is projected to increase on through the year 2000. Industrial energy demand as a share of the total will also increase (to 40% vs. 30% in 1980), whereas other sectors will decrease their share of the total demand. This situation is projected in spite of the energy conservation activities of the industrial sector. U.S. petroleum demand is projected to decrease slightly (9%) at the turn of the century relative to 1980 (see Fig. 1-4). Most of the conservation effort is seen in the reduced oil demand, and an appreciable substitution of other fuels for oil is anticipated. However, 16 million barrels/day (B/d) of petroleum are still likely to be needed in the United States by the year 2000. It is anticipated that much of the substitution for oil will occur in the electric utility, industrial, and commercial sectors of the economy. The transportation and nonenergy segments of the economy have very limited potential for reducing petroleum consumption. Even the United States, which is better off in petroleum supplies than many other countries, can supply only about half its projected demand domestically (see Fig. 1-5). Production from known reserves has long since peaked and is currently running at about half of its 1970-1975 peak level. Appreciable production from new discoveries is anticipated in the 1990s. A significant contribution from synthetic petroleum was expected in the same time frame, but this will probably be delayed for a decade by recent decision to cancel or defer major investments. The result is that in the 1990s imports and additional conservation on the order of 8 to 10 million B/d will be the only way to close the supply-demand gap. Recent data and projections of U.S. oil demand are somewhat lower than those shown in Fig. 1-5. For example the U.S. Energy Information Administration has projected the 1983 average oil demand at 15.4 million B/d, up 0.7% from 1982, based on a 1.7% increase in Gross National Product (GNP). This increase in demand is projected to cause an 11.6% increase in oil imports to 4.7 million B/d, indicating the inflexibility of the U.S. oil supply. Current major oil company capital expenditures are down 25% from 1982, which is impacting exploration budgets. The 1984 U.S. demand outlook is 16 million B/d, up 5% over 1983 and approaching the amounts shown in Fig. 1-5. Barring a major technology breakthrough, the United States is likely to continue consuming more petroleum than it can produce and thus remain heavily dependent on imports to cover change in demand. Special mention is in order for the petrochemical business. The 1970s saw markedly reduced growth in the petrochemical industry because of the rapid increase in feedstock costs. Projected growth in the 1980s, however, may still be higher than the growth rate forecast for the gross national product. 2 In 1980 the industry produced 80 million tons of product, which generated worldwide revenues of over $200 billion. In the United States petrochemical feedstock represents only 3% of petroleum demand. But with decreasing petroleum supplies, significant growth in the petrochemical business will require very careful feedstock selection and management in future years. Thus, we are seeing major ethylene producers rapidly turning to gas liquids for feedstock. The question is, "Will there be adequate supplies once the current recession is over?" From these arguments it seems reasonable to conclude that, apart from temporary lulls in price escalation, petroleum costs will continue to increase over the long run. This view is shared by a number of investors in the United States who are buying unprecedented amounts of oil-income funds. Through these funds groups of investors underwrite production costs from known reserves in return for a share of the profits: they are betting their money on a long-term upward trend in prices.
C. continued tekanan biaya mungkin
Pada tulisan ini ada jeda di tingkat eskalasi harga minyak mentah. Ekonom atribut ini elastisitas permintaan minyak sebagai fungsi dari harga dan kemerosotan ekonomi. Tidak ada yang dapat memprediksi berapa banyak perubahan harga permanen (elastisitas) dan berapa banyak tekanan biaya akan dihasilkan lagi ketika bisnis muncul kembali. Memang, permintaan minyak telah menurun lebih dari awalnya diantisipasi ketika harga naik. Karena kebutuhan ekonomi, semua sektor ekonomi telah mengurangi konsumsi oleh lebih dari jumlah token yang asli yang ditawarkan kepada pemerintah. Kegiatan tersebut dibantu oleh kenaikan harga minyak daripada curam biaya modal lebih dari bagian periode itu. Di gambar 1-2 upaya dilakukan untuk menunjukkan hubungan antara eskalasi harga minyak mentah dan inflasi biaya modal sejak tahun 1977. Lereng kurva 2 paralel untuk 2 yr pertama periode, tapi keduanya kemudian dalam putaran baru kenaikan harga minyak. Membenarkan investasi modal untuk menghemat energi adalah relatif mudah dalam keadaan seperti itu. Ini tidak bisa terus, namun. Tidak langsung, meningkatkan biaya energi akan meningkatkan biaya barang modal melalui pembuatan biaya segmen. Pekerja yang berteriak- teriak untuk kenaikan gaji catch-up untuk offset pribadi biaya energi. Potensi yang ada untuk biaya modal untuk melanjutkan tingkat kenaikan lebih hampir sejajar dengan harga minyak mentah. Jika ini terjadi, mengurangi konsumsi energi melalui penambahan modal investasi akan menjadi yang lebih sulit. Hubungan persediaan-kebutuhan minyak bumi juga menandakan tekanan terus biaya dalam jangka panjang. Gambar 1-3 menunjukkan situasi permintaan energi US diproyeksikan oleh Exxon Corporation pada tahun 1981. 1 Permintaan energi total diproyeksikan meningkat pada tahun 2000. Permintaan industri energi sebagai bagian dari total juga akan meningkatkan (untuk 40% vs 30% pada tahun 1980), sedangkan sektor lain akan menurunkan bagian mereka dari total kebutuhan. Situasi ini diproyeksikan meskipun konservasi energi kegiatan sektor industri. U.S. permintaan minyak diproyeksikan menurun sedikit (9%) pada pergantian abad ke-relatif terhadap 1980 (Lihat gambar 1-4). Sebagian besar upaya pelestarian dilihat dalam permintaan minyak dikurangi, dan cukup besar substitusi bahan bakar lain untuk minyak diantisipasi. Namun, 16 juta barel/hari (B/d) minyak bumi masih mungkin diperlukan di Amerika Serikat pada tahun 2000. Hal ini diantisipasi bahwa sebagian besar substitusi untuk minyak akan terjadi di utilitas listrik, industri dan komersial sektor ekonomi. Transportasi dan nonenergy segmen ekonomi memiliki sangat terbatas potensi untuk mengurangi konsumsi minyak bumi. Bahkan Amerika Serikat, yang lebih baik dalam pasokan minyak dari banyak negara lain, dapat menyediakan hanya sekitar separuh diproyeksikan permintaan dalam negeri (Lihat gambar 1-5). Produksi dari cadangan dikenal memuncak lama dan yang sedang berjalan di sekitar setengah dari tingkat puncak 1970-1975. Cukup besar produksi dari penemuan-penemuan baru diantisipasi pada 1990-an. Sumbangan signifikan daripada minyak sintetis yang diharapkan dalam rentang waktu yang sama, tapi ini mungkin akan tertunda selama satu dekade oleh keputusan baru-baru untuk membatalkan atau menunda investasi besar. Hasilnya adalah bahwa impor tahun 1990-an dan tambahan konservasi urutan 8 sampai 10 juta B/d akan menjadi satu-satunya cara untuk menutup kesenjangan permintaan. Terbaru data dan proyeksi dari permintaan minyak AS yang agak lebih rendah daripada yang ditampilkan dalam Fig. 1-5. Misalnya administrasi informasi energi AS telah memproyeksikan permintaan 1983 rata-rata minyak di 15,4 juta B/d, naik 0,7% dari tahun 1982, didasarkan pada kenaikan 1,7% dalam produk Nasional Bruto (PNB). Peningkatan permintaan diproyeksikan menyebabkan peningkatan 11,6% minyak impor 4,7 juta B/d, menunjukkan keteguhan pasokan minyak US. Belanja modal perusahaan minyak utama saat ini adalah turun 25% dari tahun 1982, yang berdampak eksplorasi anggaran. 1984 US permintaan outlook adalah 16 juta B/d, , sampai 5% selama tahun 1983 dan mendekati jumlah yang ditampilkan dalam Fig. 1-5. Cegah terobosan teknologi utama, Amerika Serikat cenderung terus mengkonsumsi minyak lebih daripada yang dapat menghasilkan dan karenanya tetap bergantung pada impor untuk menutupi perubahan permintaan. Khusus menyebutkan adalah dalam rangka untuk bisnis petrokimia. 1970- an melihat penyusutan pertumbuhan di industri petrokimia karena peningkatan pesat dalam biaya bahan baku. Proyeksi pertumbuhan di tahun 1980, bagaimanapun, masih mungkin lebih tinggi dari tingkat pertumbuhan forecast untuk produk Nasional Bruto. 2 Pada tahun 1980 industri memproduksi 80 juta ton produk, yang menghasilkan pendapatan di seluruh dunia lebih dari $200 miliar. Di Amerika Serikat bahan baku petrokimia mewakili hanya 3% dari permintaan minyak. Tetapi dengan penurunan pasokan minyak, pertumbuhan yang signifikan dalam bisnis petrokimia akan memerlukan pemilihan bahan baku sangat berhati-hati dan manajemen di masa depan tahun. Dengan demikian, kita melihat produsen utama etilena dengan cepat berubah cairan gas untuk bahan baku. Pertanyaannya adalah, "Akan ada pasokan yang memadai setelah resesi saat ini berakhir?" Dari argumen ini tampaknya masuk akal untuk menyimpulkan bahwa, selain sementara ketenangan di eskalasi harga, biaya minyak akan terus meningkat dalam jangka panjang. Pandangan ini dikongsikan oleh sejumlah investor di Amerika Serikat yang membeli jumlah yang belum pernah terjadi sebelumnya dari dana pendapatan minyak. Melalui dana ini kelompok dari investor menanggung biaya produksi dari cadangan yang dikenal sebagai bagian dari keuntungan: mereka bertaruh uang mereka pada jangka panjang tren harga.
Is The Oil Industry Able To Support A World That Consumes 105 Million Barrels of Oil Per Day in 2025? - Oil & Gas Science and Technology (Hacquard, 2019)